The operational management of Water Distribution Systems (WDS), particularly under failure conditions when the behaviour of a WDS is not well understood, is a challenging problem. The research presented in this thesis describes the development of a methodology for risk-based diagnostics of failures in WDS and its application in a near real-time Decision Support System (DSS) for WDS’ operation. In this thesis, the use of evidential reasoning to estimate the likely location of a burst pipe within a WDS by combining outputs of several models is investigated. A novel Dempster-Shafer model is developed, which fuses evidence provided by a pipe burst prediction model, a customer contact model and a hydraulic model to increase confidence in correctly locating a burst pipe. A new impact model, based on a pressure driven hydraulic solver coupled with a Geographic Information System (GIS) to capture the adverse effects of failures from an operational perspective, is created. A set of Key Performance Indicators used to quantify impact, are aggregated according to the preferences of a Decision Maker (DM) using the Multi-Attribute Value Theory. The potential of distributed computing to deliver a near real-time performance of computationally expensive impact assessment is explored. A novel methodology to prioritise alarms (i.e., detected abnormal flow events) in a WDS is proposed. The relative significance of an alarm is expressed using a measure of an overall risk represented by a set of all potential incidents (e.g., pipe bursts), which might have caused it. The DM’s attitude towards risk is taken into account during the aggregation process. The implementation of the main constituents of the proposed risk-based pipe burst diagnostics methodology, which forms a key component of the aforementioned DSS prototype, are tested on a number of real life and semi-real case studies. The methodology has the potential to enable more informed decisions to be made in the near real-time failure management in WDS.

An attempt was made to investigate the decision processes of subjects in a bivariate decision making task, similar to that facing a medical specialist who is required to classify a patient as belonging to one of a number of possible disease populations on the basis of the patient's scores of two predictor cues. It was felt that such tasks had been largely neglected in experimental psychology, where the tendency has been towards requiring subjects to learn relationships between continuous predictor variables and a continuous criterion, rather than between continuous predictor variables and a categorical criterion. When the relationship between the predictor variables is the same in both the populations to be discriminated, the best decision function is based on a linear combination of the cues (Fisher’s Linear Discriminant Function). It was found that the decisions of those subjects who learned to use the cues in a way which was at all valid in such situations, could be well approximated by a model which weighted the two cues equally in a linear combination and based it’s decisions on the result. When the relationship between the predictor variables differs from one population to the other, however, the best decision function becomes more complex, including terms in the squares and cross-products of the cues. It was felt that such situations are particularly relevant to medical decision making where clinicians have frequently claimed that the "pattern" of scores of a patient is important, not Just the individual scores on each cue. It was found that if differences in cue intercorrelation were large, then subjects seemed to inolude in their iii decision processes, some nonlinear term to take account of this fact. If, however, differences in cue intercorrelation were only moderate, or if the correlations involved were large hut negative, this seemed to go unnoticed by the subjects and did not lead to any reliance on nonlinear terms. The results show that previous findings in "real life" tasks, that decision making processes could be adequately represented as linear combinations of cues, may be due more to the linear nature of the tasks than to any predisposition towards linear processes on the part of human decision makers, and that the statistical properties of "real life" tasks must be more thoroughly investigated before it is assumed that they require nonlinear decision processes.

Thesis (M.A.)--University of North Carolina at Wilmington, 2006. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 88-100)

In multi-level decision making (DM) approaches, the final decision is reached by going through a finite number of DM levels. Usually, in each level, a raw decision is produced first and then a suitable decision fusion technique is employed to merge the lower level decisions with the raw decision in the construction of the final decision of the present level. The basic difficulty in these approaches is the determination of how the consecutive levels should interact with each other. In this thesis, two different multi-level DM models have been proposed. The main idea in the first model, &ldquo / hierarchical DM&rdquo / (HDM), is to transfer the decisions of previous hierarchical levels to an upper hierarchy with some reliability values. These decisions are then fused using a suitable decision fusion technique to attain more consistent decisions at an upper level. The second model &ldquo / local DM in multiplelevels&rdquo / (LDM-ML) depends on what may be called as local DM process. Instead of designing an agent to perform globally, designing relatively simple agents which are supposed to work in local regions is the essence of the second idea. Final decision is partially constructed by contribution of a sufficient number of local DM agents. A successful local agent is retained in the agent pool whereas a local agent not successful enough is eliminated and removed from the agent pool. These models have been applied on two case studies associated with fault detection in a four-tank system and prediction of lotto sales.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--York University, 1999. Graduate Programme in Business. / Typescript. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 187-208). Also available on the Internet. MODE OF ACCESS via web browser by entering the following URL: http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/yorku/fullcit?pNQ56268.

Diss. (sammanfattning) Umeå : Sveriges lantbruksuniv., 2007. / Härtill 6 uppsatser.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Ohio State University, 2005. / Title from first page of PDF file. Includes bibliographical references (p. 121-125).

This is a study of a group of young people that explores their journeys into, and experiences within, the informal economy. Evidence has shown that young people have always been more disadvantaged in a context of high levels of unemployment, limited job opportunities and entitlement to welfare benefits. As an alternative to low paying jobs with poor working conditions, and in addition to strict conditions for claiming benefits, some young people are making the decision to engage in criminal ways of generating income. This study examines the experiences of twenty-six young people from Luton and Cambridge who had engaged in begging, drug dealing and sex work as alternative forms of ‘work’ in their transitions to adulthood. It explores the structural, cultural and biographical factors that influence their informal career decision-making processes, by drawing on Bourdieu’s social field theory. By examining the lived experiences of these young people, the study throws more light on the role of structure and personal agency in the decisions the young people made in engaging in the informal economy. These young people wanted to be seen as ‘normal’ young people. Most were hardworking, and ambitious, and their engagement in informal economic activities was often a ‘means to an end’. This study also identifies strategies that were employed by the young people for their successful navigating of the economy, and highlights the importance of elements like trust, respect and knowledge in their negotiations. It assesses how the issue of risk was managed with the help of what was seen to be an unwritten code of conduct in the field. The study also identified a hierarchy within the field, which was determined by the individual participants, depending on their personal perceptions and perspectives. The data was collected using semi-structured interviews, over a period of a year. The process of collecting data was long and difficult, highlighting the ethical and methodological challenges of conducting research with a ‘hidden’ population. The findings throw new light on the unique challenges young people face both in the formal job market, and in accessing welfare support, in light of the significant changes to social policy in the UK.

Cette thèse traite des problématiques liées à la formation et à l’orientation de la personne durant son parcours de vie à travers la notion de la maturité et une recherche psychologique associant à ce parcours un effort scientifique. La vie de chacun étant, en effet, « une histoire jalonnée » de plusieurs transitions qui marquent l’évolution individuelle, la thèse s’est appesantie sur deux concepts clés et indispensables dans la formation, la prise de décision et l’orientation des individus : la maturité et la transition ; la maturité en tant qu’état préparatoire à la prise de décision en matière de formation et d’emploi et la transition en tant qu’événement et processus développemental qui transforme la vie, les rôles, les relations, les habitudes, les représentations de la personne. L’imbrication de ces deux concepts à chaque stade de développement permet aux individus de s’ouvrir au monde des significations suivant les différentes pratiques d’aides et stratégies facilitant l’appropriation et la constitution d’un répertoire des ressources en prévision des éventuelles orientations à court, moyen et long terme. La notion de la maturité m’a permis de mener une enquête grâce à un questionnaire qui décrit trois types d’informations (connaissance du monde professionnel, connaissance des formations et connaissance de professions), à l’aide de trois processus (exploration, décision et planification). Le but de cette étude est de rechercher des créneaux, des stratégies permettant aux jeunes gabonais de trouver des solutions les aidant à s’ouvrir et à s’intéresser à l’information grâce à l’application des nouvelles pratiques d’aides à l’orientation dans le cadre du développement de la notion de la maturité vocationnelle. En conclusion, dans cette thèse de doctorat, deux notions m’ont marqué : celle de la maturité et celle de la transition qui combinent leurs influences pour permettre la construction et le développement du soi et des identités des adolescents et des adultes tout au long de leur existence. A la fin de cette étude, l’actualité et la centralité de ces deux concepts me paraissent évidentes. / This thesis addresses issues related to training and orientation of a person during their life through the notion of maturity and psychological research involving this term scientific effort. Everyone’s life, is indeed, “a story marked” by several transition that mark the individual evolution, the theory has fallen heavily on two key and essential in training, decision making and directory of individuals: maturity and transition; maturity as prior preparation for decision making regarding training and employment and transition as an event and development process that transforms the lives, roles, relationship, habits, representation of person. The interweaving of these two concepts at each stage of development enables people to embrace the world of meaning accord according to different aid practices and strategies to facilitate the ownership and creation of a directory of resources forecasts of possible orientation shot, medium and long term. Notion of maturity allowed me to conduct a survey using a questionnaire shat describes three types of information (knowledge of the business word, knowledge of occupations) using three processes (exploration, decision making and planning). The purpose of this study is to find niches, strategies to enable you Gabonese to find solutions helping to open up and look at information through the of vocational maturity. In addition to this, into this doctoral thesis I have marked two notions: that of the maturity and the transition that combines to allow the construction and development of self identity of adolescents and adults throughout their existence. At the end of the current study of centrality ot these two concepts seem obvious.

Submitted by LUCIANO CANDIDO SILVA null (luciano.silva1@nissan.com.br) on 2016-06-22T23:48:32Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação versão final.pdf: 2172477 bytes, checksum: 4fe67046a80dd8bad23baa326cb55a97 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Ana Paula Grisoto (grisotoana@reitoria.unesp.br) on 2016-06-24T18:11:03Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 silva_lc_me_guara.pdf: 2172477 bytes, checksum: 4fe67046a80dd8bad23baa326cb55a97 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-24T18:11:03Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 silva_lc_me_guara.pdf: 2172477 bytes, checksum: 4fe67046a80dd8bad23baa326cb55a97 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-04-28 / A indústria automobilística tem uma importância crescente no contexto econômico brasileiro - em 2006 o país era o décimo colocado no ranking automotivo mundial e no final de 2010 o quarto lugar. O setor movimenta uma cadeia enorme que engloba fabricantes, fornecedores de matéria-prima, autopeças, distribuidores, postos de gasolina, seguradoras, oficinas mecânicas, borracharias, empresas de comunicação, agências de publicidade, entre outros. Consciente desta importância, o governo federal, através da Lei n° 12.715 de 17 de dezembro de 2012 instituiu o Programa de Incentivo à Inovação Tecnológica e Adensamento da Cadeia Produtiva de Veículos Automotores - INOVAR-AUTO com o objetivo de apoiar o desenvolvimento tecnológico, a inovação, a segurança, a proteção ao meio ambiente, a eficiência energética e a qualidade dos automóveis, caminhões, ônibus e autopeças. No entanto, as empresas adotam tais políticas públicas quando é possível avaliar os ganhos obtidos com sua implantação. Deste modo, este trabalho apresenta a aplicação da Teoria das Opções Reais (TOR) na avaliação dessa política pública. A abordagem modela a tomada de decisão como uma opção de compra americana em um projeto de instalação de uma unidade produtora de veículos automotores que deseja aderir ao INOVAR-AUTO. Constatou-se que uma das maiores dificuldades da aplicação das Opções Reais é a modelagem dos fatores de riscos decorrentes das incertezas. As fontes de incerteza modeladas neste trabalho são as associadas à quantidade de carros vendidos no país, à participação da empresa no mercado (market share), ao preço do carro e à taxa de juros. A Simulação de Monte Carlo permite integrar os efeitos dessas incertezas na estimação da volatilidade do projeto. Como produto final deste trabalho, obteve-se um quadro que resume que os métodos tradicionais de análises de investimentos (VPL e TIR) não são suficientes para a avaliação de projetos em segmentos com elevado grau de incerteza como o automotivo. / The automotive industry has a growing importance in the Brazilian economic context - in 2006, the country was the tenth in the global automotive ranking and in late 2010, the fourth. The industry moves a huge supply chain that includes manufacturers, suppliers of raw materials, auto parts dealers, gas stations, insurance companies, auto repair shops, tire repair, media companies, advertising agencies, among others. Aware of this importance, the Federal Government, by the Law No. 12,715 of December 17, 2012 established the Incentive Program for Technological Innovation and Supply Chain Densification of Motor Vehicles - INOVAR-AUTO, in order to support the technological development, innovation, safety, environmental protection, energy efficiency and the quality of cars, trucks, buses and auto parts. However, companies adopt such policies when it is possible to evaluate the gains from its implementation. Thus, this work presents the application of the Real Options Theory (ROT) in the evaluation of this public policy. The approach models the decision making as an option of an American company with a project to install a vehicle production unit using INOVAR-AUTO. It was found that one of the greatest difficulties of the application of Real Options Theory is the modeling of risk factors arising from uncertainties. The uncertainty sources modeled in this paper are those associated to the number of sold cars in the country, to company’s market share, the car price and to the interest rate. The Monte Carlo simulation allows to integrating the effects of these uncertainties in the estimation of the project volatility. As a final product of this work, we obtained a table that summarizes the traditional methods of investment analysis (NPV and IRR) are not sufficient to assess projects in sectors with a high degree of uncertainty as automotive industry.