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A thesis submitted to the School of Economic and Business Sciences, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, University of the Witwatersrand in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (Ph/D). Johannesburg, South Africa June 2016 / In recent years, the debate on market efficiency has shifted to providing alternate forms of the hypothesis, some of which are testable and can be proven false. This thesis examines one such alternative, the Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH), with a focus on providing a framework for testing the dynamic (cyclical) notion of market efficiency using South African equity data (44 shares and six indices) over the period 1997 to 2014. By application of this framework, stylised facts emerged. First, the examination of market efficiency is dependent on the frequency of data. If one were to only use a single frequency of data, one might obtain conflicting conclusions. Second, by binning data into smaller sub-samples, one can obtain a pattern of whether the equity market is efficient or not. In other words, one might get a conclusion of, say, randomess, over the entire sample period of daily data, but there may be pockets of non-randomness with the daily data. Third, by running a variety of tests, one provides robustness to the results. This is a somewhat debateable issue as one could either run a variety of tests (each being an improvement over the other) or argue the theoretical merits of each test befoe selecting the more appropriate one. Fourth, analysis according to industries also adds to the result of efficiency, if markets have high concentration sectors (such as the JSE), one might be tempted to conclude that the entire JSE exhibits, say, randomness, where it could be driven by the resources sector as opposed to any other sector. Last, the use of neural networks as approximators is of benefit when examining data with less than ideal sample sizes. Examining five frequencies of data, 86% of the shares and indices exhibited a random walk under daily data, 78% under weekly data, 56% under monthly data, 22% under quarterly data and 24% under semi-annual data. The results over the entire sample period and non-overlapping sub-samples showed that this model's accuracy varied over time. Coupled with the results of the trading strategies, one can conclude that the nature of market efficiency in South Africa can be seen as time dependent, in line with the implication of the AMH. / MT2017

A research report submitted to the School of Economic and Business Sciences, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, University of the Witwatersrand, in partial fulfilment (50%) of the requirements for degree of Master of Commerce in Finance. March 2016 / This study attempts to determine the possible effects of individualism on industry volatility. The implications of this for behavioural finance are extensive, showing firstly that different industries react differently to behavioural biases and secondly that overconfidence is a possible driver of the positive effect of individualism on industry volatility. The country selection process was relatively objective, taking two countries with high individualism indexes and two with low indexes and including one with a medium index value. The result was a sample of the United States of America, the United Kingdom, South Africa, China and Taiwan. The industry selection process was more subjective. Industries were selected which should have a higher propensity to behavioural biases with lower book to market ratios (software and computer services industry and pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry) and other industries which should not be as strongly affected by behavioural biases (banks, mining, oil and gas producers, and mobile telecommunications industries). In order to correct for ARCH effects the series’ were modelled using a GARCH (1, 1) model. The resulting residuals, which showed no autocorrelation, were then used to conduct panel data regressions on each of the industries. The results confirmed that individualism had a positive effect on volatility in the industries which were expected (software and computer services and pharmaceuticals and biotechnology industries). However, it was also determined that the banks industry was significantly affected by individualism, an effect which it was hypothesised, was due to the individualism of employees as opposed to investors. / MT2017

by Mi Jia, Wang Xueyu. / Thesis (M.B.A.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2002. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 77-78). / ABSTRACT --- p.III / TABLE OF CONTENTS --- p.iv / LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES --- p.vi / Chapters / INTRODUCTION --- p.1 / DATA AND RESEARCH METHODOLOGY --- p.6 / EFFICIENCY TESTS --- p.12 / Time Serial Correlation Analysis --- p.12 / Seasonal Fluctuation --- p.16 / General Index's analysis and comparison --- p.17 / Holiday Effect --- p.20 / Test of Predictability in Stock Market Returns --- p.35 / Larger Stock in June effect --- p.37 / Passive Vs Active portfolio (with technical analysis) --- p.39 / Technical analysis --- p.40 / Filter Rules Approach Testing --- p.43 / Returns over Short and Long Horizons --- p.49 / Holding Period Return over Short and Long Horizons --- p.50 / Accumulative Abnormal Return over Short and Long Horizons --- p.51 / Mutual Fund Performance --- p.52 / Mutual Fund vs. Index --- p.53 / Relative Performance among Mutual Funds --- p.54 / "B/M, Size, and P/E Effect" --- p.55 / "Correlation among B/M, Assets, Market Value of A Share, P/E and Beta" --- p.56 / B/M and Annual Return --- p.57 / P/E and Annual Return --- p.59 / Assets and annual return --- p.60 / Market Value of A Share and Annual Return --- p.61 / Beta and Annual Return --- p.53 / Multiple Regressions --- p.64 / CONCLUSION --- p.66 / Limitation of Research --- p.66 / Summary --- p.67 / APPENDIX 1 --- p.69 / APPENDIX 2 --- p.70 / APPENDIX 3 --- p.71 / APPENDIX 4 --- p.72 / APPENDIX 5 --- p.73 / BIBLIOGRAPHY --- p.77

This study examines the comparative magnitude of disturbances in intraday data for exchange traded foreign exchange (FX) options. An in-depth time series analysis on the frequency and extent of discrepancies in the disturbances is conducted. The purpose of this study is twofold. First, using intraday data and trading volume, this study attempts to determine whether both put-call parity and lower boundary conditions consistently hold for exchange traded options written on U.S. dollar denominated options on the Euro trading on the Philadelphia Stock Exchange (PHLX). Second, this study attempts to investigate the magnitude of any discrepancies that may exist due to a temporary cessation of either put-call parity or lower boundary conditions. Intraday (tick-by-tick) bid prices, ask prices, and trading volume on U.S. dollar denominated European style call options and put options on the Euro are obtained. Option data is collected through a Structured Query Language (SQL) request from the Bloomberg database. Corresponding tick-by-tick spot rates for the underlying exchange rate are obtained for the same time period. Tick-by-tick 3-month Treasury bill rates are obtained to for use as the relevant risk-free interest rate. The primary data set spans an approximate one month period from 11/1/2011 to 12/6/2011. Call and option pricing data for near-the-money exercise prices are obtained for options expiring in December 2011, January 2012, February 2012, March 2012, June 2012, and September 2012. A total of 7,212 ticks (minutes) are analyzed for the conversion strategy and 7,209 ticks are analyzed for the reversal strategy. The data is structured into an unbalanced panel data set (cross-sectional time series data) using put-call pairs as the cross sectional units and ticks as the time-series unit. To test the efficiency of the foreign exchange options market, lower boundary and put-call parity conditions were tested on tick-by-tick currency option data. Analysis shows that lower boundary conditions hold for the overwhelming majority of options, with less than 0.0001% of violations for the observed options. A more detailed econometric analysis was prepared to test the put-call parity condition for currency options. A fixed effects model specification is used to describe the put-call parity relationship. Based on the analysis, it is possible to obtain arbitrage profits in the short run through the use of either a conversion or reversal strategy even after accounting for transaction costs. Taking the first differences of the variables resulted in a model with stationary variables and statistically significant estimators. The inclusion of dummy variables for moneyness did not add significant explanatory power to the deterministic put-call parity relationship. For both first differences of conversion and reversal strategies, the large t-statistics for the slope coefficients and intercept terms indicate a rejection of the null hypothesis, H0: λ0 = 0 and λ1 = 1 after adjusting for standard error. This implies that once transaction costs are adjusted for, put-call parity does not hold. However, the intercept term is only very slightly negative, and the intercept term is only slightly less than one in both cases. This implies that when put-call parity is violated, arbitrage profit should be relatively small.

The modelling of stock market volatility is considered to be important for practitioners and academics in finance due to its use in forecasting aspects of future returns. The GARCH class models have now firmly established themselves as one of the foremost techniques for modelling volatility in financial markets. The application of GARCH class models in developed and emerging markets (including the Egyptian Stock Market) provides evidence of GARCH effects in stock returns. However, most of the studies conducted on modelling the volatility of stock returns are based on the aggregated market index. This thesis argues that this will not reflect significant differences of variation in the pattern of volatility associated with different stocks. However, in order to examine the similarities and differences between the conditional variance structures of stocks from the same or different industries in the same equity market, this thesis estimates pooled-panel models. These novel models are used to test for similarities and differences in the conditional variance equation in panels of time series within a general to specific framework of nested tests. This is done using panel samples of sector indices and stocks from the Egyptian Stock Market covering the period from 1997 to 2002. The results suggest that there are similarities in the temporal volatility structures of stocks from the same sector or industry, but there are significant differences in the temporal volatility structures of stocks from different sectors or industries. This suggests that using indices alone for modelling the volatility of an equity market, which is the method used in the majority of studies cited in the literature, may not be appropriate. The thesis concludes with a discussion of some of the implications of these results and suggestions for further research. / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

Over the past 20 years the field of electronic markets has seen a considerable proliferation and differentiation. This position paper takes the opportunity of the 21st volume of “Electronic Markets” to look back at important developments and insights, suggesting a framework that captures the multiple facets and indeed empirical breadth and depths of this concept. It comprises three perspectives which include the market environment, governance choices by economic actors as well as the entrepreneurial dynamics of firms who initiate and operate market platforms as their business. In addition, we propose to study the interplay of technological, market, and institutional drivers in order to understand the phenomenon of electronic markets, which is also a precondition for designing electronic markets. Both activities involve more than an economically motivated choice between the discrete alternatives of markets and hierarchies. Rather, electronic markets are configurations across multiple, interdependent dimensions: Technology is an important force in shaping the field, but needs to be complemented by considerations of the competitive environment and the setting of rules in order to ensure efficient and effective plays of the game. Based on this framework, this position paper develops six propositions for the future of electronic markets. Overall, the advantages of intermediated structures, an ongoing technological sophistication, as well as further innovation in market mechanisms and services make electronic markets an ena-bler for many interorganizational value chains. While we are confident that the ingenuity of inventors will yield a flow of innovations, recent economic crises have shed a dark shadow over the sustainability of electronic markets. They call for suitable rules and regulation amenable to economic prosperity and stability to be agreed upon on a broad level.

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Univ., Diss. u.d.T.: Sauer, Klaus: Haftung für sekundärmarktbezogene Informationspflichtverletzungen--Frankfurt am Main, 2004.

Thesis (M. Phil.)--University of Hong Kong, 1994. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves i-xx).