The conduct of effective economic policy faces a multiplicity of macroeconomic challenges, which requires a wide scope of theoretical and empirical analyses. With a focus on the European Union, this doctoral dissertation consists of two parts which make empirical and methodological contributions to the literature on forecasting real economic activity and on the analysis of business cycles in a boom-bust framework in the light of the EMU enlargement. In the first part, we tackle the problem of publication lags and analyse the role of the information flow in computing short-term forecasts up to one quarter ahead for the euro area GDP and its main components. A huge dataset of monthly indicators is used to estimate simple bridge equations. The individual forecasts are then pooled, using different weighting schemes. To take into consideration the release calendar of each indicator, six forecasts are compiled successively during the quarter. We find that the sequencing of information determines the weight allocated to each block of indicators, especially when the first month of hard data becomes available. This conclusion extends the findings of the recent literature. Moreover, when combining forecasts, two weighting schemes are found to outperform the equal weighting scheme in almost all cases. In the second part, we focus on the potential accession of the new EU Member States in Central and Eastern Europe to the euro area. In contrast to the discussion of Optimum Currency Areas, we follow a non-standard approach for the discussion on abandonment of national currencies the boom-bust theory. We analyse whether evidence for boom-bust cycles is given and draw conclusions whether these countries should join the EMU in the near future. Using a broad range of data sets and empirical methods we document credit market imperfections, comprising asymmetric financing opportunities across sectors, excess foreign currency liabilities and contract enforceability problems both at macro and micro level. Furthermore, we depart from the standard analysis of comovements of business cycles among countries and rather consider long-run and short-run comovements across sectors. While the results differ across countries, we find evidence for credit market imperfections in Central and Eastern Europe and different sectoral reactions to shocks. This gives favour for the assessment of the potential euro accession using this supplementary, non-standard approach.

Submitted by RODRIGO DE HOLANDA SCHMIDT (rodrigohs1979@gmail.com) on 2018-01-17T18:29:25Z No. of bitstreams: 1 PROJETO Posdefesa Versão FINAL.pdf: 1906537 bytes, checksum: 3b5e67507ea1b0d7bda550480252ae26 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Janete de Oliveira Feitosa (janete.feitosa@fgv.br) on 2018-01-18T18:30:52Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 PROJETO Posdefesa Versão FINAL.pdf: 1906537 bytes, checksum: 3b5e67507ea1b0d7bda550480252ae26 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-01-30T12:08:34Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 PROJETO Posdefesa Versão FINAL.pdf: 1906537 bytes, checksum: 3b5e67507ea1b0d7bda550480252ae26 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-11-30 / Purpose – The aim of this study was to comprehend the main determinant factors for vertical integration in the pulp and paper sector in Brazil, from a perspective of pulp manufacturers. Design/methodology – The research adopted a qualitative approach, through a multiple case study with three of the main companies in the pulp and paper sector in Brazil. The data collection was done through semi-structured interviews of executives of the selected companies. Findings – The main competitive advantage arises from the vertical integration backward, of the pulp mill towards the forestry. The main factors for this are the exercise of the market power of oligopoly by the pulp companies, assurance of supply of their main input, the wood, asset specificity of site, shortening the distance between the forest and the pulp mill, and mitigation of uncertainty. There is tapered integration of pulp mill and forestry, mainly due the use of advantages of site specificity of forest producers near the mill, the need to mitigate social risks and to develop a mature market for the commercialization of wood in the country. Research limitations – The main limitation of this work is the fact that the pulp sector is a concentrated oligopoly, with few companies, which restricts the diversity and number of respondents. Practical implications – The results can be applied to organizations in the pulp and paper sector, as well as to other capital-intensive industries with high dependence on a particular raw material. Originality– To our knowledge, this is the first study about vertical integration in the pulp and paper sector in Brazil. / Objetivo – Este estudo pretende compreender os principais determinantes para a integração vertical no setor de papel e celulose no Brasil, a partir de uma perspectiva das fabricantes de celulose. Metodologia – A pesquisa seguiu uma abordagem qualitativa, por meio de estudo de casos múltiplos com três das principais empresas do setor de papel e celulose do Brasil. A coleta de dados foi feita por meio de entrevistas semiestruturadas de executivos das empresas selecionadas. Resultados – A principal vantagem competitiva verificada se deu na integração vertical realizada à montante pela fábrica de celulose, em direção à produção florestal. Os principais fatores para isso foram o exercício do poder de mercado de oligopólio pelas empresas de celulose, a garantia de fornecimento do seu insumo principal, a madeira, a especificidade de local dos ativos, dada pela proximidade necessária entre a floresta e a unidade de celulose, e a mitigação da incerteza. A integração vertical entre fábrica de celulose e produção florestal é realizada de forma parcial, principalmente devido ao aproveitamento de vantagens de localização de produtores florestais próximos à fabrica, à necessidade de mitigar riscos sociais e de desenvolver um mercado maduro de comercialização de madeira no país. Limitações – A principal limitação deste trabalho é o fato do setor de celulose ser um oligopólio concentrado, com poucas empresas, o que restringe a diversidade e o número de entrevistados. Aplicabilidade do trabalho – Os resultados obtidos podem ser aplicados às organizações do setor de papel e celulose, bem como a outras indústrias de capital intensivo e com alta dependência de uma matéria-prima em especial. Originalidade – Pelo que conhecemos, é o primeiro trabalho sobre integração vertical no setor de papel e celulose no Brasil.

This dissertation is a collection of essays on challenges in international trade and international finance, which apply econometric methods to diverse data sets and relate them to economic policy questions. In times of crises, the question, whether individual countries have the ability to pursue idiosyncratic monetary policy, is important. The degree of integration and comovement between financial markets, for instance, is critical to better assess the real threat facing a country in a crisis. Also, from a macroeconomic modeling perspective, there has recently been a renewed interest in the cyclical and long-run comovement of interest rates. Hence, in a first essay, we reinvestigate the long- and short-run comovements in the G7-countries by conducting tests for cointegration, common serial correlation and codependence with nominal and real interest rates. Overall, we only find little evidence of comovements: common trends are occasionally observed, but the majority of interest rates are not cointegrated. Although some evidence for codependence of higher order can be found in the pre-Euro area sample, common cycles appear to exist only in rare cases. We argue that some earlier, more positive findings in the literature are difficult to reconcile due to differing assumptions about the underlying stochastic properties of interest rates. Hence, we conclude that they cannot be generalized for all interest rates, time periods, and reasonable alternative estimation procedures. This finding indicates that scope for individual countries to pursue stabilization policy does still exist in a globalized world. Emerging economies, in general, are much more exposed and vulnerable to crises than industrialized countries. Accordingly, stabilization policy is especially important in these countries and the selection of the best monetary regime is essential. This is why, in a second essay, we contrast two different views in the debate on official dollarization: the Mundell (1961) framework of optimum currency areas and a model on boom-bust cycles by Schneider and Tornell (2004), who take account of credit market imperfections prevalent in middle income countries. We highlight the strikingly different role of the exchange rate in the two models. While in the Mundell framework the exchange rate is expected to smooth the business cycle, the second model predicts the exchange rate to play an amplifying role. We empirically evaluate both models for eight highly dollarized Central American economies. We document the existence of credit market imperfections and find that shocks from the exchange rate indeed amplify business cycles in these countries. Using a new method proposed by Cubadda (1999 and 2007), we furthermore test for cyclical comovement and reject the hypothesis that the selected countries form an optimum currency area with the United States according to the Mundell definition. In the context of the recent global crisis, globalization and vertical integration in particular were often blamed for being the cause for the severe trade crisis. For that reason, in the essay that contributes to the trade literature, we analyze the role of international supply chains in explaining the long-run trade elasticity and its short-term volatility in the context of the recent trade collapse. We adopt an empirical strategy based on two steps: first, stylized facts on long- and short-term trade elasticity are derived from exploratory analysis and formal modeling on a large and diversified sample of countries. Then, we derive observations of interrelated input-output matrices for a demonstrative sub-set of countries. We find evidence for two supply chain related factors to explain the overshooting of trade elasticity during the 2008-2009 trade collapse: the composition and the bullwhip effect. However, evidence for a magnification effect could not be found. Overall, we do not accept the hypothesis that international supply chains explain all by themselves the changes in trade-income elasticity.