Boston University. University Professors Program Senior theses. / PLEASE NOTE: Boston University Libraries did not receive an Authorization To Manage form for this thesis. It is therefore not openly accessible, though it may be available by request. If you are the author or principal advisor of this work and would like to request open access for it, please contact us at open-help@bu.edu. Thank you. / 2031-01-02

This dissertation examines the impact of globalization on firms’ organization, and documents how these organizational changes impact employment, efficiency and welfare in the domestic economy. In the first chapter, I study the impact of Chinese imports on employment of US manufacturing firms. Previous papers have found a negative effect of Chinese imports on employment in US manufacturing establishments, industries, and regions. However, I show theoretically and empirically that the impact of offshoring on firms, which can be thought of as collections of establishments – differs from the impact on individual establishments – because offshoring reduces costs at the firm level. These cost reductions can result in firms expanding their total manufacturing employment in industries in which the US has a comparative advantage relative to China, even as specific establishments within the firm shrink. Using novel data on firms from the US Census Bureau, I show that the data support this view: US firms expanded manufacturing employment as reorganization toward less exposed industries in response to increased Chinese imports in US output and input markets allowed them to reduce the cost of production. More exposed firms expanded employment by 2 percent more per year as they hired more (i) production workers in manufacturing, whom they paid higher wages, and (ii) in services complementary to high-skilled and high-tech manufacturing, such as R&D, design, engineering, and headquarters services. In other words, although Chinese imports may have reduced employment within some establishments, these losses were more than offset by gains in employment within the same firms. Contrary to conventional wisdom, firms exposed to greater Chinese imports created more manufacturing and nonmanufacturing jobs than non-exposed firms. The second chapter proposes a new channel through which financial shocks affect firms – imported intermediate inputs – and investigates its empirical implications for firms' production decision in a panel of Hungarian firms and banks. In a model of liquidity-constrained heterogeneous firms, only the most productive firms import the higher productivity foreign intermediates because these firms are the only ones that can afford the necessary financing. In this model, a financial liberalization results in lower interest rates on bank loans that reduces the relative cost of imported intermediates, induces firms to become importers and leads continuing importers to import more. Thus capital market liberalization acts like trade liberalization. Using the last stage of Hungarian financial account liberalization in 2001 as a natural experiment, I find that, as predicted by the theory, firms whose banks were given access to new international sources of credit increased their intermediate import shares of production. Moreover, this increase was financed by the short-term liquidity arising from the liberalization. These findings support the hypothesis that positive credit supply shocks reduce the relative cost of imported intermediates, and induce firms to import and increase the share of imports in their intermediate input use. The third chapter, co-authored with Richard Clarida, shows that the financial channel can substitute in a welfare-improving way for the trade channel in small open economies’ external adjustment. Countries can adjust internationally through the trade and the financial channel. Gourinchas and Rey (2007) have shown that the financial channel can complement, or even substitute, for the traditional trade adjustment channel via a narrowing of the country’s current account imbalance. However, they only use a log linearization of a net foreign asset accumulation identity without reference to any specific theoretical model of international financial adjustment (IFA). In this chapter we calibrate the importance of IFA in a standard open economy growth model (Schmitt-Grohe and Uribe, 2003) with a well-defined steady state level of foreign liabilities. In this model there is a country specific credit spread which varies as a function of the ratio of foreign liabilities to gross domestic product. We find that allowing for an IFA channel results in a very rapid convergence of the current account to its steady state, relative to the no IFA case. While on the long term, all of the adjustment is via the IFA channel of forecastable changes in the cost of servicing debt and in appreciation of the real exchange rate. By contrast, in the no IFA case, current account adjustment by construction does all the work, and this adjustment is at a slow rate.

A dissertation submitted in fulfillment of the requirements of the degree of Master of Science in the School of Computer Science and Applied Mathematics March 22, 2017 / Agent-based models, particularly those applied to financial markets, demonstrate the ability to produce realistic, simulated system dynamics, comparable to those observed in empirical investigations. Despite this, they remain fairly difficult to calibrate due to their tendency to be computationally expensive, even with recent advances in technology. For this reason, financial agent-based models are frequently validated by demonstrating an ability to reproduce well-known log return time series and central limit order book stylized facts, as opposed to being rigorously calibrated to transaction data. We thus apply an established financial agent-based model calibration framework to a number of intraday agent-based models employing realistic order matching procedures and demonstrate that while the parameters of these models rooted in market microstructure can indeed be meaningfully calibrated, those exclusively related to agent behaviors and incentives remain problematic, due to the presence of parameter degeneracies not identified by stylized fact-centric validation. We further argue that the observed parameter degeneracies are likely a consequence of the realistic matching processes employed in these models, which suggests that alternative approaches to linking data, phenomenology and market structure may be necessary and that the stylized fact-centric validation of intraday agent-based models is insufficient. / MT 2017

We employ the Reuters database to compare execution costs for 2,330 matched-pair securities across the top 7 equity markets in the Dow Jones STOXX Global 1800 Index. This sample encompasses a wide variety of thirteen market design features. In addition, we investigate execution costs well beyond the most heavily traded stocks to include equities in the sixth through tenth deciles of traded value. Our findings indicate that full transparency of the limit order book to investors and a composite of unique NYSE features (but not the presence of the crowd) unequivocally reduce effective spreads. In contrast, a fully transparent limit order book revealed to brokers, the presence of a market maker, or the mixture of execution systems present on the LSE sharply increase effective spreads in both thickly and thinly-traded stocks. The effect of a physical trading floor is statistically significant but relatively small; it increases effective spreads slightly for thickly-traded firms, and reduces them for thinly-traded stocks. The findings for price impact are the same with three exceptions. First, the presence of a trading floor increases costs, dramatically so for thinlytraded stocks. Second, a fully transparent limit order book for brokers raises price impact for thickly traded stocks, but lowers price impacts for thinly traded firms. Third, in thinly-traded stocks, London???s hybrid market decreases price impact, and in thickly-traded stocks, crowd trading on the NYSE and full transparency to investors decrease price impact. Finally, the results for realised spread are essentially the same as those for effective spread, with the exception that the effect of the presence of a trading floor is to reduce realised spreads. Overall, the London Stock Exchange is the highest execution cost market, and the NYSE is the lowest. This research includes a market-specific study of the effect on execution cost of the Liquidity Provider of Euronext Paris. Euronext Paris affords a natural experimental research design because a third of firms have Liquidity Providers and two thirds do not. Results indicate quoted spreads, effective spreads and realized spreads are significantly affected by the presence of a Liquidity Provider, but price impacts are not. On the one hand, this suggests that the thickly-traded stocks where the Liquidity Providers are prohibited have sufficient liquidity in their absence. On the other hand however, liquidity providers on Euronext Paris reduce effective and realised spreads in essentially all stocks. This finding suggests that the limit order book refreshes much more quickly after developing an imbalance of large size orders when Liquidity Providers can facilitate other liquidity suppliers in assessing picking off risk. The Liquidity Provider increases quoted spreads for thickly-traded firms from the first three traded value deciles while reducing quoted spreads for the lower deciles.

An ideal inductive machine learning algorithm produces a model best approximating an underlying target function by using reasonable computational cost. This requires the resultant model to be consistent with the training data, and generalize well over the unseen data. Regular inductive machine learning algorithms rely heavily on numerical data as well as general-purpose inductive bias. However certain environments contain rich domain knowledge prior to the learning task, but it is not easy for regular inductive learning algorithms to utilize prior domain knowledge. This thesis discusses and analyzes various methods of incorporating prior domain knowledge into inductive machine learning through three key issues: consistency, generalization and convergence. Additionally three new methods are proposed and tested over data sets collected from capital markets. These methods utilize financial knowledge collected from various sources, such as experts and research papers, to facilitate the learning process of kernel methods (emerging inductive learning algorithms). The test results are encouraging and demonstrate that prior domain knowledge is valuable to inductive learning machines.

We employ the Reuters database to compare execution costs for 2,330 matched-pair securities across the top 7 equity markets in the Dow Jones STOXX Global 1800 Index. This sample encompasses a wide variety of thirteen market design features. In addition, we investigate execution costs well beyond the most heavily traded stocks to include equities in the sixth through tenth deciles of traded value. Our findings indicate that full transparency of the limit order book to investors and a composite of unique NYSE features (but not the presence of the crowd) unequivocally reduce effective spreads. In contrast, a fully transparent limit order book revealed to brokers, the presence of a market maker, or the mixture of execution systems present on the LSE sharply increase effective spreads in both thickly and thinly-traded stocks. The effect of a physical trading floor is statistically significant but relatively small; it increases effective spreads slightly for thickly-traded firms, and reduces them for thinly-traded stocks. The findings for price impact are the same with three exceptions. First, the presence of a trading floor increases costs, dramatically so for thinlytraded stocks. Second, a fully transparent limit order book for brokers raises price impact for thickly traded stocks, but lowers price impacts for thinly traded firms. Third, in thinly-traded stocks, London???s hybrid market decreases price impact, and in thickly-traded stocks, crowd trading on the NYSE and full transparency to investors decrease price impact. Finally, the results for realised spread are essentially the same as those for effective spread, with the exception that the effect of the presence of a trading floor is to reduce realised spreads. Overall, the London Stock Exchange is the highest execution cost market, and the NYSE is the lowest. This research includes a market-specific study of the effect on execution cost of the Liquidity Provider of Euronext Paris. Euronext Paris affords a natural experimental research design because a third of firms have Liquidity Providers and two thirds do not. Results indicate quoted spreads, effective spreads and realized spreads are significantly affected by the presence of a Liquidity Provider, but price impacts are not. On the one hand, this suggests that the thickly-traded stocks where the Liquidity Providers are prohibited have sufficient liquidity in their absence. On the other hand however, liquidity providers on Euronext Paris reduce effective and realised spreads in essentially all stocks. This finding suggests that the limit order book refreshes much more quickly after developing an imbalance of large size orders when Liquidity Providers can facilitate other liquidity suppliers in assessing picking off risk. The Liquidity Provider increases quoted spreads for thickly-traded firms from the first three traded value deciles while reducing quoted spreads for the lower deciles.

We employ the Reuters database to compare execution costs for 2,330 matched-pair securities across the top 7 equity markets in the Dow Jones STOXX Global 1800 Index. This sample encompasses a wide variety of thirteen market design features. In addition, we investigate execution costs well beyond the most heavily traded stocks to include equities in the sixth through tenth deciles of traded value. Our findings indicate that full transparency of the limit order book to investors and a composite of unique NYSE features (but not the presence of the crowd) unequivocally reduce effective spreads. In contrast, a fully transparent limit order book revealed to brokers, the presence of a market maker, or the mixture of execution systems present on the LSE sharply increase effective spreads in both thickly and thinly-traded stocks. The effect of a physical trading floor is statistically significant but relatively small; it increases effective spreads slightly for thickly-traded firms, and reduces them for thinly-traded stocks. The findings for price impact are the same with three exceptions. First, the presence of a trading floor increases costs, dramatically so for thinlytraded stocks. Second, a fully transparent limit order book for brokers raises price impact for thickly traded stocks, but lowers price impacts for thinly traded firms. Third, in thinly-traded stocks, London???s hybrid market decreases price impact, and in thickly-traded stocks, crowd trading on the NYSE and full transparency to investors decrease price impact. Finally, the results for realised spread are essentially the same as those for effective spread, with the exception that the effect of the presence of a trading floor is to reduce realised spreads. Overall, the London Stock Exchange is the highest execution cost market, and the NYSE is the lowest. This research includes a market-specific study of the effect on execution cost of the Liquidity Provider of Euronext Paris. Euronext Paris affords a natural experimental research design because a third of firms have Liquidity Providers and two thirds do not. Results indicate quoted spreads, effective spreads and realized spreads are significantly affected by the presence of a Liquidity Provider, but price impacts are not. On the one hand, this suggests that the thickly-traded stocks where the Liquidity Providers are prohibited have sufficient liquidity in their absence. On the other hand however, liquidity providers on Euronext Paris reduce effective and realised spreads in essentially all stocks. This finding suggests that the limit order book refreshes much more quickly after developing an imbalance of large size orders when Liquidity Providers can facilitate other liquidity suppliers in assessing picking off risk. The Liquidity Provider increases quoted spreads for thickly-traded firms from the first three traded value deciles while reducing quoted spreads for the lower deciles.

With the process of financial globalization, many thousands of stock traders and stock brokers endeavor to seek the best portfolio diversification. Ever since the emergence of stock exchanges, whether international stock/equity markets are correlated or not generates more and more attention by investors. Based upon the augmented Dickey- Fuller (ADF) test and the error correction model (ECM), this paper tests the cointegration of three of the biggest stock exchanges in the world. Two periods, 1991-2000 and 2001-2010 are studied. The main finding is that there is no cointegration in the long run period among the tested markets, but in short run Dow Jone Industiral Average (DJIA) will affect Deutscher Aktien- Indice (DAX) and Nikkei Heikin Kabuka, 225 (NIKKEI 225).

In this dissertation I explain the relationship among inflation volatility, rational bubbles, and asset prices. In addition, I investigate the transmission of asset prices and volatility among countries. In the second chapter, which deals with the relationship between inflation volatility and asset prices, my empirical analysis shows that real stock returns tend to co-vary negatively with expected inflation during periods of stable inflation, but co-vary positively with expected inflation during periods of volatile inflation for 16 countries. To investigate the relationship between rational bubbles and asset prices in the third chapter, I formulate an information error model which allows one to derive the measure of non-fundamentals in stock prices in a straightforward manner. This study provides a new method by specifying rational bubble measures that follow the Weibull distribution. As a result, my empirical analysis is the first step in applying survival analysis to bubbles, and it reveals preliminary evidence that there is the increasing bursting rate at a decreasing rate for extraneous or instrinsic bubbles in the U.S. stock market. In the fourth chapter, which deals with the transmission of asset prices and volatility, I investigate how the 1997 crisis has changed the Korean market by focusing on price and volatility spillovers from the U.S., Chinese, and Japanese markets. I have used daily stock prices from January 3, 1995 to July 31, 2007 and employed an EGARCH model. New information on stock prices originated in the U.S. market was more transmitted to the Korean market for all periods. The price spillover effect from the Japanese market to the Korean market became stronger from the crisis period. The influence of U.S. and Japanese innovations on market volatility increased after the crisis period. However, the magnitude of spillover effects from the Chinese market to the Korean market remained small and stable between the prior- and post-crisis periods and the volatility spillover effect remained stable for all periods. Asymmetry in the spillover effects on market volatility was pronounced in the Korean market after the financial crisis.

The purpose of this thesis is to examine hourly wage differences across different groups of Mexican-origin workers. First, I assess the cost of foreign-born status by comparing the hourly wages of Mexican immigrant workers with those of native-born Mexican American workers. Second, I assess the cost of non-citizenship status by comparing the hourly wages of non-citizens with those of Mexican-born U.S. naturalized citizens. I also seek to determine if these costs are greater in California than in Texas. The data are drawn from the 2000 5% Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) U.S. Census. The results from multiple linear regression analyses show that being an immigrant, particularly a non-citizen immigrant, is associated with lower hourly wages, especially in California. Thus, Mexicanorigin workers, especially those in California, bear dual costs for being foreign-born and not being naturalized citizens. Furthermore, I focus on length of U.S. residence to assess the social and economic impact of the different periods on the costs associated with foreign-born status. First, those who came to the United States before the IRCA of 1986 and a series of California propositions during the 1990s have higher hourly wages than those who arrived later, because of more stable labor market conditions and the effect of the duration of stay in the United States. Second, those who arrived during the last decade have much lower hourly wages because of their disadvantaged labor market contexts.