Nous étudions dans cette thèse divers aspects du transport optimal martingale en dimension plus grande que un, de la dualité à la structure locale, puis nous proposons finalement des méthodes d’approximation numérique.On prouve d’abord l’existence de composantes irréductibles intrinsèques aux transports martingales entre deux mesures données, ainsi que la canonicité de ces composantes. Nous avons ensuite prouvé un résultat de dualité pour le transport optimal martingale en dimension quelconque, la dualité point par point n’est plus vraie mais une forme de dualité quasi-sûre est démontrée. Cette dualité permet de démontrer la possibilité de décomposer le transport optimal quasi-sûre en une série de sous-problèmes de transports optimaux point par point sur chaque composante irréductible. On utilise enfin cette dualité pour démontrer un principe de monotonie martingale, analogue au célèbre principe de monotonie du transport optimal classique. Nous étudions ensuite la structure locale des transports optimaux, déduite de considérations différentielles. On obtient ainsi une caractérisation de cette structure en utilisant des outils de géométrie algébrique réelle. On en déduit la structure des transports optimaux martingales dans le cas des coûts puissances de la norme euclidienne, ce qui permet de résoudre une conjecture qui date de 2015. Finalement, nous avons comparé les méthodes numériques existantes et proposé une nouvelle méthode qui s’avère plus efficace et permet de traiter un problème intrinsèque de la contrainte martingale qu’est le défaut d’ordre convexe. On donne également des techniques pour gérer en pratique les problèmes numériques. / In this thesis, we study various aspects of martingale optimal transport in dimension greater than one, from duality to local structure, and finally we propose numerical approximation methods.We first prove the existence of irreducible intrinsic components to martingal transport between two given measurements, as well as the canonicity of these components. We have then proved a duality result for optimal martingale transport in any dimension, point by-point duality is no longer true but a form of quasi safe duality is demonstrated. This duality makes it possible to demonstrate the possibility of decomposing the quasi-safe optimal transport into a series of optimal transport subproblems point by point on each irreducible component. Finally, this duality is used to demonstrate a principle of martingale monotony, analogous to the famous monotonic principle of classical optimal transport. We then study the local structure of optimal transport, deduced from differential considerations. We thus obtain a characterization of this structure using tools of real algebraic geometry. We deduce the optimal martingal transport structure in the case of the power costs of the Euclidean norm, which makes it possible to solve a conjecture that dates from 2015. Finally, we compared the existingnumerical methods and proposed a new method which proves more efficient and allows to treat an intrinsic problem of the martingale constraint which is the defect of convex order. Techniques are also provided to manage digital problems in practice.

On étudie certaines propriétés d'une classe de processus aléatoires réels à temps continu, les marches aléatoires multifractales. Une particularité remarquable de ces processus tient en leur propriété d'autosimilarité : la loi du processus à petite échelle est identique à celle à grande échelle moyennant un facteur aléatoire multiplicatif indépendant du processus. La première partie de la thèse se consacre à la question de la convergence du moment empirique de l'accroissement du processus dans une asymptotique assez générale, où le pas de l'accroissement peut tendre vers zéro en même temps que l'horizon d'observation tend vers l'infini. La deuxième partie propose une famille de tests non-paramétriques qui distinguent entre marches aléatoires multifractales et semi-martingales d'Itô. Après avoir montré la consistance de ces tests, on étudie leur comportement sur des données simulées. On construit dans la troisième partie un processus de marche aléatoire multifractale asymétrique tel que l'accroissement passé soit négativement corrélé avec le carré de l'accroissement futur. Ce type d'effet levier est notamment observé sur les prix d'actions et d'indices financiers. On compare les propriétés empiriques du processus obtenu avec des données réelles. La quatrième partie concerne l'estimation des paramètres du processus. On commence par montrer que sous certaines conditions, deux des trois paramètres ne peuvent être estimés. On étudie ensuite les performances théoriques et empiriques de différents estimateurs du troisième paramètre, le coefficient d'intermittence, dans un cas gaussien / We study some properties of a class of real-valued, continuous-time random processes, namely multifractal random walks. A striking feature of these processes lie in their scaling property : the distribution of the process at small scale is the same as the distribution at large scale, given some random multiplicative factor independent of the process. The first part of the dissertation deals with the convergence of the empirical moment of the increment of the process in a rather general asymptotic setting where the step of the increment may go to zero while the observation horizon may also go to infinity. In the second part, we propose a family of nonparametric tests that separate multifractal random walks from Itô semi-martingales. After showing the consistency of these tests, we study their behavior on simulations.In the third part, we build a skewed multifractal random walk process, such that the past increment is negatively correlated with the future squared increment. Such a "leverage effect" is notably seen on financial stock and index prices. We compare the empirical properties of this process with real data. The fourth part deals with the parametric estimation of the process. We first show that under certain conditions, one can not estimate two of the three parameters, even if the sample path is continuously observed on some interval. We next study the theoretical and empirical performances of some estimators of the third parameter, the intermittency coefficient, in a Gaussian case

O objetivo principal deste trabalho é introduzir os modelos log-Birnbaum-Saunders mistos (log-BS mistos) e estender os resultados para os modelos log-Birnbaum-Saunders t-Student mistos (log-BS-t mistos). Os modelos log-BS são bastante conhecidos desde o trabalho de Rieck e Nedelman (1991) e particularmente receberam uma grande atenção nos últimos 10 anos com vários trabalhos publicados em periódicos internacionais. Contudo, o enfoque desses trabalhos tem sido em modelos log-BS ou log-BS generalizados com efeitos fixos, não havendo muita atenção para modelos com efeitos aleatórios. Inicialmente, apresentamos no trabalho uma revisão das distribuições Birnbaum-Saunders e Birnbaum-Saunders generalizada (BSG) e em seguida discutimos os modelos log-BS e log-BS-t com efeitos fixos, para os quais revisamos alguns resultados de estimação e diagnóstico. Os modelos log-BS mistos são então apresentados precedidos de uma revisão dos métodos de quadratura de Gauss Hermite (QGH). Embora a estimação dos parâmetros nos modelos log-BS mistos seja efetuada através do procedimento Proc NLMIXED do SAS (Littell et al, 1996), aplicamos o método de quadratura não adaptativa a fim de obtermos aproximações para o logaritmo da função de verossimilhança do modelo log-BS de intercepto aleatório. Com essas aproximações derivamos as funções escore e a matriz hessiana, além das curvaturas normais de influência local (Cook, 1986) para alguns esquemas de perturbação usuais. Os mesmos procedimentos são aplicados para os modelos log-BS-t de intercepto aleatório. Discussões sobre a predição dos efeitos aleatórios, teste para o componente de variância dos modelos com intercepto aleatório e análises de resíduos são também apresentados. Finalmente, comparamos os ajustes de modelos log-BS e log-BS mistos a um conjunto de dados reais. Métodos de diagnóstico são utilizados na comparação dos modelos ajustados. / The aim of this work is to introduce the log-Birnbaum-Saunders mixed models (log-BS mixed models) and to extend the results to log-Birnbaum-Saunders Student-t mixed models (log-BS-t mixed models). The log-BS models are well-known since the work by Rieck and Nedelman (1991) and particularly have received great attention in the last 10 years with various published papers in international journals. However, the emphasis given in such works has been in fixed-effects models with few attention given to random-effects models. Firstly, we present in this work a review on Birnbaum-Saunders and generalized Birnbaum-Saunders distributions and so we discuss log-BS and log-BS-t fixed-effects models for which some results on estimation and diagnostic are presented. Then, we introduce the log-BS mixed models preceded by a review on Gauss-Hermite quadrature. Although the parameter estimation of the marginal log-BS and log-BS-t mixed models are performed in the procedure NLMIXED of SAS (Littell et al., 1996), we apply the quadrature methods in order to obtain approximations for the likelihood function of the log-BS and log-BS-t random intercept models. These approximations are used to derive the respective score functions, observed information matrices as well as the normal curvature of local influence (Cook, 1986) under some usual perturbation schemes. Discussions on the prediction of the random effects, variance component tests and residual analysis are also given. Finally, we compare the fits of log-BS and log-BS-t mixed models to a real data set. Diagnostic methods are used in the comparisons.

I consider continuous time asset pricing models with stochastic differential utility incorporating decision makers' concern with ambiguity on true probability measure. In order to identify and estimate key parameters in the models, I use a novel econometric methodology developed recently by Park (2008) for the statistical inference on continuous time conditional mean models. The methodology only imposes the condition that the pricing error is a continuous martingale to achieve identification, and obtain consistent and asymptotically normal estimates of the unknown parameters. Under a representative agent setting, I empirically evaluate alternative preference specifications including a multiple-prior recursive utility. My empirical findings are summarized as follows: Relative risk aversion is estimated around 1.5-5.5 with ambiguity aversion and 6-14 without ambiguity aversion. Related, the estimated ambiguity aversion is both economically and statistically significant and including the ambiguity aversion clearly lowers relative risk aversion. The elasticity of intertemporal substitution (EIS) is higher than 1, around 1.3-22 with ambiguity aversion, and quite high without ambiguity aversion. The identification of EIS appears to be fairly weak, as observed by many previous authors, though other aspects of my empirical results seem quite robust. Next, I develop an approach to test for martingale in a continuous time framework. The approach yields various test statistics that are consistent against a wide class of nonmartingale semimartingales. A novel aspect of my approach is to use a time change defined by the inverse of the quadratic variation of a semimartingale, which is to be tested for the martingale hypothesis. With the time change, a continuous semimartingale reduces to Brownian motion if and only if it is a continuous martingale. This follows immediately from the celebrated theorem by Dambis, Dubins and Schwarz. For the test of martingale, I may therefore see if the given process becomes Brownian motion after the time change. I use several existing tests for multivariate normality to test whether the time changed process is indeed Brownian motion. I provide asymptotic theories for my test statistics, on the assumption that the sampling interval decreases, as well as the time horizon expands. The stationarity of the underlying process is not assumed, so that my results are applicable also to nonstationary processes. A Monte-Carlo study shows that our tests perform very well for a wide range of realistic alternatives and have superior power than other discrete time tests.

O objetivo principal deste trabalho é introduzir os modelos log-Birnbaum-Saunders mistos (log-BS mistos) e estender os resultados para os modelos log-Birnbaum-Saunders t-Student mistos (log-BS-t mistos). Os modelos log-BS são bastante conhecidos desde o trabalho de Rieck e Nedelman (1991) e particularmente receberam uma grande atenção nos últimos 10 anos com vários trabalhos publicados em periódicos internacionais. Contudo, o enfoque desses trabalhos tem sido em modelos log-BS ou log-BS generalizados com efeitos fixos, não havendo muita atenção para modelos com efeitos aleatórios. Inicialmente, apresentamos no trabalho uma revisão das distribuições Birnbaum-Saunders e Birnbaum-Saunders generalizada (BSG) e em seguida discutimos os modelos log-BS e log-BS-t com efeitos fixos, para os quais revisamos alguns resultados de estimação e diagnóstico. Os modelos log-BS mistos são então apresentados precedidos de uma revisão dos métodos de quadratura de Gauss Hermite (QGH). Embora a estimação dos parâmetros nos modelos log-BS mistos seja efetuada através do procedimento Proc NLMIXED do SAS (Littell et al, 1996), aplicamos o método de quadratura não adaptativa a fim de obtermos aproximações para o logaritmo da função de verossimilhança do modelo log-BS de intercepto aleatório. Com essas aproximações derivamos as funções escore e a matriz hessiana, além das curvaturas normais de influência local (Cook, 1986) para alguns esquemas de perturbação usuais. Os mesmos procedimentos são aplicados para os modelos log-BS-t de intercepto aleatório. Discussões sobre a predição dos efeitos aleatórios, teste para o componente de variância dos modelos com intercepto aleatório e análises de resíduos são também apresentados. Finalmente, comparamos os ajustes de modelos log-BS e log-BS mistos a um conjunto de dados reais. Métodos de diagnóstico são utilizados na comparação dos modelos ajustados. / The aim of this work is to introduce the log-Birnbaum-Saunders mixed models (log-BS mixed models) and to extend the results to log-Birnbaum-Saunders Student-t mixed models (log-BS-t mixed models). The log-BS models are well-known since the work by Rieck and Nedelman (1991) and particularly have received great attention in the last 10 years with various published papers in international journals. However, the emphasis given in such works has been in fixed-effects models with few attention given to random-effects models. Firstly, we present in this work a review on Birnbaum-Saunders and generalized Birnbaum-Saunders distributions and so we discuss log-BS and log-BS-t fixed-effects models for which some results on estimation and diagnostic are presented. Then, we introduce the log-BS mixed models preceded by a review on Gauss-Hermite quadrature. Although the parameter estimation of the marginal log-BS and log-BS-t mixed models are performed in the procedure NLMIXED of SAS (Littell et al., 1996), we apply the quadrature methods in order to obtain approximations for the likelihood function of the log-BS and log-BS-t random intercept models. These approximations are used to derive the respective score functions, observed information matrices as well as the normal curvature of local influence (Cook, 1986) under some usual perturbation schemes. Discussions on the prediction of the random effects, variance component tests and residual analysis are also given. Finally, we compare the fits of log-BS and log-BS-t mixed models to a real data set. Diagnostic methods are used in the comparisons.

Cette thèse est consacrée à l’étude de deux problèmes différents : l’asymptotique suramortie de la dynamique de Langevin d’une part, et l’étude d’une technique de réduction de variance dans une méthode de Monte Carlo par une repondération optimale des échantillons, d’autre part. Dans le premier problème, on montre la convergence en distribution de processus de Langevin dans l’asymptotique sur-amortie. La preuve repose sur la méthode classique des “fonctions test perturbées”, qui est utilisée pour montrer la tension dans l’espace des chemins, puis pour identifier la limite comme solution d’un problème de martingale. L’originalité du résultat tient aux hypothèses très faibles faites sur la régularité de l’énergie potentielle. Dans le deuxième problème, nous concevons des méthodes de réduction de la variance pour l’estimation de Monte Carlo d’une espérance de type E[φ(X, Y )], lorsque la distribution de X est exactement connue. L’idée générale est de donner à chaque échantillon un poids, de sorte que la distribution empirique pondérée qui en résulterait une marginale par rapport à la variable X aussi proche que possible de sa cible. Nous prouvons plusieurs résultats théoriques sur la méthode, en identifiant des régimes où la réduction de la variance est garantie. Nous montrons l’efficacité de la méthode en pratique, par des tests numériques qui comparent diverses variantes de notre méthode avec la méthode naïve et des techniques de variable de contrôle. La méthode est également illustrée pour une simulation d’équation différentielle stochastique de Langevin / This dissertation is devoted to studying two different problems: the over-damped asymp- totics of Langevin dynamics and a new variance reduction technique based on an optimal reweighting of samples.In the first problem, the convergence in distribution of Langevin processes in the over- damped asymptotic is proven. The proof relies on the classical perturbed test function (or corrector) method, which is used (i) to show tightness in path space, and (ii) to identify the extracted limit with a martingale problem. The result holds assuming the continuity of the gradient of the potential energy, and a mild control of the initial kinetic energy. In the second problem, we devise methods of variance reduction for the Monte Carlo estimation of an expectation of the type E [φ(X, Y )], when the distribution of X is exactly known. The key general idea is to give each individual sample a weight, so that the resulting weighted empirical distribution has a marginal with respect to the variable X as close as possible to its target. We prove several theoretical results on the method, identifying settings where the variance reduction is guaranteed, and also illustrate the use of the weighting method in Langevin stochastic differential equation. We perform numerical tests comparing the methods and demonstrating their efficiency

Cette thèse présente trois principaux sujets de recherche, les deux premiers étant indépendants et le dernier indiquant la relation des deux premières problématiques dans un cas concret.Dans la première partie nous nous intéressons au problème de transport optimal martingale dans l’espace de Skorokhod, dont le premier but est d’étudier systématiquement la tension des plans de transport martingale. On s’intéresse tout d’abord à la semicontinuité supérieure du problème primal par rapport aux distributions marginales. En utilisant la S-topologie introduite par Jakubowski, on dérive la semicontinuité supérieure et on montre la première dualité. Nous donnons en outre deux problèmes duaux concernant la surcouverture robuste d’une option exotique, et nous établissons les dualités correspondantes, en adaptant le principe de la programmation dynamique et l’argument de discrétisation initie par Dolinsky et Soner.La deuxième partie de cette thèse traite le problème du plongement de Skorokhod optimal. On formule tout d’abord ce problème d’optimisation en termes de mesures de probabilité sur un espace élargi et ses problèmes duaux. En utilisant l’approche classique de la dualité; convexe et la théorie d’arrêt optimal, nous obtenons les résultats de dualité. Nous rapportons aussi ces résultats au transport optimal martingale dans l’espace des fonctions continues, d’où les dualités correspondantes sont dérivées pour une classe particulière de fonctions de paiement. Ensuite, on fournit une preuve alternative du principe de monotonie établi par Beiglbock, Cox et Huesmann, qui permet de caractériser les optimiseurs par leur support géométrique. Nous montrons à la fin un résultat de stabilité qui contient deux parties: la stabilité du problème d’optimisation par rapport aux marginales cibles et le lien avec un autre problème du plongement optimal.La dernière partie concerne l’application de contrôle stochastique au transport optimal martingale avec la fonction de paiement dépendant du temps local, et au plongement de Skorokhod. Pour le cas d’une marginale, nous retrouvons les optimiseurs pour les problèmes primaux et duaux via les solutions de Vallois, et montrons en conséquence l’optimalité des solutions de Vallois, ce qui regroupe le transport optimal martingale et le plongement de Skorokhod optimal. Quand au cas de deux marginales, on obtient une généralisation de la solution de Vallois. Enfin, un cas spécial de plusieurs marginales est étudié, où les temps d’arrêt donnés par Vallois sont bien ordonnés. / This PhD dissertation presents three research topics, the first two being independent and the last one relating the first two issues in a concrete case.In the first part we focus on the martingale optimal transport problem on the Skorokhod space, which aims at studying systematically the tightness of martingale transport plans. Using the S-topology introduced by Jakubowski, we obtain the desired tightness which yields the upper semicontinuity of the primal problem with respect to the marginal distributions, and further the first duality. Then, we provide also two dual formulations that are related to the robust superhedging in financial mathematics, and we establish the corresponding dualities by adapting the dynamic programming principle and the discretization argument initiated by Dolinsky and Soner.The second part of this dissertation addresses the optimal Skorokhod embedding problem under finitely-many marginal constraints. We formulate first this optimization problem by means of probability measures on an enlarged space as well as its dual problems. Using the classical convex duality approach together with the optimal stopping theory, we obtain the duality results. We also relate these results to the martingale optimal transport on the space of continuous functions, where the corresponding dualities are derived for a special class of reward functions. Next, We provide an alternative proof of the monotonicity principle established in Beiglbock, Cox and Huesmann, which characterizes the optimizers by their geometric support. Finally, we show a stability result that is twofold: the stability of the optimization problem with respect to target marginals and the relation with another optimal embedding problem.The last part concerns the application of stochastic control to the martingale optimal transport with a payoff depending on the local time, and the Skorokhod embedding problem. For the one-marginal case, we recover the optimizers for both primal and dual problems through Vallois' solutions, and show further the optimality of Vallois' solutions, which relates the martingale optimal transport and the optimal Skorokhod embedding. As for the two-marginal case, we obtain a generalization of Vallois' solution. Finally, a special multi-marginal case is studied, where the stopping times given by Vallois are well ordered.

Thesis (MSc (Mathematics))--University of Stellenbosch, 2010. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The first approach initiated by Merton [Mer69, Mer71] to solve utility maximization portfolio problems in continuous time is based on stochastic control theory. The idea of Merton was to interpret the maximization portfolio problem as a stochastic control problem where the trading strategies are considered as a control process and the portfolio wealth as the controlled process. Merton derived the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation and for the special case of power, logarithm and exponential utility functions he produced a closedform solution. A principal disadvantage of this approach is the requirement of the Markov property for the stocks prices. The so-called martingale method represents the second approach for solving utility maximization portfolio problems in continuous time. It was introduced by Pliska [Pli86], Cox and Huang [CH89, CH91] and Karatzas et al. [KLS87] in di erent variant. It is constructed upon convex duality arguments and allows one to transform the initial dynamic portfolio optimization problem into a static one and to resolve it without requiring any \Markov" assumption. A de nitive answer (necessary and su cient conditions) to the utility maximization portfolio problem for terminal wealth has been obtained by Kramkov and Schachermayer [KS99]. In this thesis, we study the convex duality approach to the expected utility maximization problem (from terminal wealth) in continuous time stochastic markets, which as already mentioned above can be traced back to the seminal work by Merton [Mer69, Mer71]. Before we detail the structure of our thesis, we would like to emphasize that the starting point of our work is based on Chapter 7 in Pham [P09] a recent textbook. However, as the careful reader will notice, we have deepened and added important notions and results (such as the study of the upper (lower) hedge, the characterization of the essential supremum of all the possible prices, compare Theorem 7.2.2 in Pham [P09] with our stated Theorem 2.4.9, the dynamic programming equation 2.31, the superhedging theorem 2.6.1...) and we have made a considerable e ort in the proofs. Indeed, several proofs of theorems in Pham [P09] have serious gaps (not to mention typos) and even aws (for example see the proof of Proposition 7.3.2 in Pham [P09] and our proof of Proposition 3.4.8). In the rst chapter, we state the expected utility maximization problem and motivate the convex dual approach following an illustrative example by Rogers [KR07, R03]. We also brie y review the von Neumann - Morgenstern Expected Utility Theory. In the second chapter, we begin by formulating the superreplication problem as introduced by El Karoui and Quenez [KQ95]. The fundamental result in the literature on super-hedging is the dual characterization of the set of all initial endowments leading to a super-hedge of a European contingent claim. El Karoui and Quenez [KQ95] rst proved the superhedging theorem 2.6.1 in an It^o di usion setting and Delbaen and Schachermayer [DS95, DS98] generalized it to, respectively, a locally bounded and unbounded semimartingale model, using a Hahn-Banach separation argument. The superreplication problem inspired a very nice result, called the optional decomposition theorem for supermartingales 2.4.1, in stochastic analysis theory. This important theorem introduced by El Karoui and Quenez [KQ95], and extended in full generality by Kramkov [Kra96] is stated in Section 2.4 and proved at the end of Section 2.7. The third chapter forms the theoretical core of this thesis and it contains the statement and detailed proof of the famous Kramkov-Schachermayer Theorem that addresses the duality of utility maximization portfolio problems. Firstly, we show in Lemma 3.2.1 how to transform the dynamic utility maximization problem into a static maximization problem. This is done thanks to the dual representation of the set of European contingent claims, which can be dominated (or super-hedged) almost surely from an initial endowment x and an admissible self- nancing portfolio strategy given in Corollary 2.5 and obtained as a consequence of the optional decomposition of supermartingale. Secondly, under some assumptions on the utility function, the existence and uniqueness of the solution to the static problem is given in Theorem 3.2.3. Because the solution of the static problem is not easy to nd, we will look at it in its dual form. We therefore synthesize the dual problem from the primal problem using convex conjugate functions. Before we state the Kramkov-Schachermayer Theorem 3.4.1, we present the Inada Condition and the Asymptotic Elasticity Condition for Utility functions. For the sake of clarity, we divide the long and technical proof of Kramkov-Schachermayer Theorem 3.4.1 into several lemmas and propositions of independent interest, where the required assumptions are clearly indicate for each step of the proof. The key argument in the proof of Kramkov-Schachermayer Theorem is an in nitedimensional version of the minimax theorem (the classical method of nding a saddlepoint for the Lagrangian is not enough in our situation), which is central in the theory of Lagrange multipliers. For this, we have stated and proved the technical Lemmata 3.4.5 and 3.4.6. The main steps in the proof of the the Kramkov-Schachermayer Theorem 3.4.1 are: We show in Proposition 3.4.9 that the solution to the dual problem exists and we characterize it in Proposition 3.4.12. From the construction of the dual problem, we nd a set of necessary and su cient conditions (3.1.1), (3.1.2), (3.3.1) and (3.3.7) for the primal and dual problems to each have a solution. Using these conditions, we can show the existence of the solution to the given problem and characterize it in terms of the market parameters and the solution to the dual problem. In the last chapter we will present and study concrete examples of the utility maximization portfolio problem in speci c markets. First, we consider the complete markets case, where closed-form solutions are easily obtained. The detailed solution to the classical Merton problem with power utility function is provided. Lastly, we deal with incomplete markets under It^o processes and the Brownian ltration framework. The solution to the logarithmic utility function as well as to the power utility function is presented. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die eerste benadering, begin deur Merton [Mer69, Mer71], om nutsmaksimering portefeulje probleme op te los in kontinue tyd is gebaseer op stogastiese beheerteorie. Merton se idee is om die maksimering portefeulje probleem te interpreteer as 'n stogastiese beheer probleem waar die handelstrategi e as 'n beheer-proses beskou word en die portefeulje waarde as die gereguleerde proses. Merton het die Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) vergelyking afgelei en vir die spesiale geval van die mags, logaritmies en eksponensi ele nutsfunksies het hy 'n oplossing in geslote-vorm gevind. 'n Groot nadeel van hierdie benadering is die vereiste van die Markov eienskap vir die aandele pryse. Die sogenaamde martingale metode verteenwoordig die tweede benadering vir die oplossing van nutsmaksimering portefeulje probleme in kontinue tyd. Dit was voorgestel deur Pliska [Pli86], Cox en Huang [CH89, CH91] en Karatzas et al. [KLS87] in verskillende wisselvorme. Dit word aangevoer deur argumente van konvekse dualiteit, waar dit in staat stel om die aanvanklike dinamiese portefeulje optimalisering probleem te omvorm na 'n statiese een en dit op te los sonder dat' n \Markov" aanname gemaak hoef te word. 'n Bepalende antwoord (met die nodige en voldoende voorwaardes) tot die nutsmaksimering portefeulje probleem vir terminale vermo e is verkry deur Kramkov en Schachermayer [KS99]. In hierdie proefskrif bestudeer ons die konveks dualiteit benadering tot die verwagte nuts maksimering probleem (van terminale vermo e) in kontinue tyd stogastiese markte, wat soos reeds vermeld is teruggevoer kan word na die seminale werk van Merton [Mer69, Mer71]. Voordat ons die struktuur van ons tesis uitl^e, wil ons graag beklemtoon dat die beginpunt van ons werk gebaseer is op Hoofstuk 7 van Pham [P09] se onlangse handboek. Die noukeurige leser sal egter opmerk, dat ons belangrike begrippe en resultate verdiep en bygelas het (soos die studie van die boonste (onderste) verskansing, die karakterisering van die noodsaaklike supremum van alle moontlike pryse, vergelyk Stelling 7.2.2 in Pham [P09] met ons verklaarde Stelling 2.4.9, die dinamiese programerings vergelyking 2.31, die superverskansing stelling 2.6.1...) en ons het 'n aansienlike inspanning in die bewyse gemaak. Trouens, verskeie bewyse van stellings in Pham cite (P09) het ernstige gapings (nie te praat van setfoute nie) en selfs foute (kyk byvoorbeeld die bewys van Stelling 7.3.2 in Pham [P09] en ons bewys van Stelling 3.4.8). In die eerste hoofstuk, sit ons die verwagte nutsmaksimering probleem uit een en motiveer ons die konveks duaale benadering gebaseer op 'n voorbeeld van Rogers [KR07, R03]. Ons gee ook 'n kort oorsig van die von Neumann - Morgenstern Verwagte Nutsteorie. In die tweede hoofstuk, begin ons met die formulering van die superreplikasie probleem soos voorgestel deur El Karoui en Quenez [KQ95]. Die fundamentele resultaat in die literatuur oor super-verskansing is die duaale karakterisering van die versameling van alle eerste skenkings wat lei tot 'n super-verskans van' n Europese voorwaardelike eis. El Karoui en Quenez [KQ95] het eers die super-verskansing stelling 2.6.1 bewys in 'n It^o di usie raamwerk en Delbaen en Schachermayer [DS95, DS98] het dit veralgemeen na, onderskeidelik, 'n plaaslik begrensde en onbegrensde semimartingale model, met 'n Hahn-Banach skeidings argument. Die superreplikasie probleem het 'n prag resultaat ge nspireer, genaamd die opsionele ontbinding stelling vir supermartingales 2.4.1 in stogastiese ontledings teorie. Hierdie belangrike stelling wat deur El Karoui en Quenez [KQ95] voorgestel is en tot volle veralgemening uitgebrei is deur Kramkov [Kra96] is uiteengesit in Afdeling 2.4 en bewys aan die einde van Afdeling 2.7. Die derde hoofstuk vorm die teoretiese basis van hierdie proefskrif en bevat die verklaring en gedetailleerde bewys van die beroemde Kramkov-Schachermayer stelling wat die dualiteit van nutsmaksimering portefeulje probleme adresseer. Eerstens, wys ons in Lemma 3.2.1 hoe om die dinamiese nutsmaksimering probleem te omskep in 'n statiese maksimerings probleem. Dit kan gedoen word te danke aan die duaale voorstelling van die versameling Europese voorwaardelike eise, wat oorheers (of super-verskans) kan word byna seker van 'n aanvanklike skenking x en 'n toelaatbare self- nansierings portefeulje strategie wat in Gevolgtrekking 2.5 gegee word en verkry is as gevolg van die opsionele ontbinding van supermartingale. In die tweede plek, met sekere aannames oor die nutsfunksie, is die bestaan en uniekheid van die oplossing van die statiese probleem gegee in Stelling 3.2.3. Omdat die oplossing van die statiese probleem nie maklik verkrygbaar is nie, sal ons kyk na die duaale vorm. Ons sintetiseer dan die duale probleem van die prim^ere probleem met konvekse toegevoegde funksies. Voordat ons die Kramkov-Schachermayer Stelling 3.4.1 beskryf, gee ons die Inada voorwaardes en die Asimptotiese Elastisiteits Voorwaarde vir Nutsfunksies. Ter wille van duidelikheid, verdeel ons die lang en tegniese bewys van die Kramkov-Schachermayer Stelling ref in verskeie lemmas en proposisies op, elk van onafhanklike belang waar die nodige aannames duidelik uiteengesit is vir elke stap van die bewys. Die belangrikste argument in die bewys van die Kramkov-Schachermayer Stelling is 'n oneindig-dimensionele weergawe van die minimax stelling (die klassieke metode om 'n saalpunt vir die Lagrange-funksie te bekom is nie genoeg in die geval nie), wat noodsaaklik is in die teorie van Lagrange-multiplikators. Vir die, meld en bewys ons die tegniese Lemmata 3.4.5 en 3.4.6. Die belangrikste stappe in die bewys van die die Kramkov-Schachermayer Stelling 3.4.1 is: Ons wys in Proposisie 3.4.9 dat die oplossing vir die duale probleem bestaan en ons karaktiriseer dit in Proposisie 3.4.12. Uit die konstruksie van die duale probleem vind ons 'n versameling nodige en voldoende voorwaardes (3.1.1), (3.1.2), (3.3.1) en (3.3.7) wat die prim^ere en duale probleem oplossings elk moet aan voldoen. Deur hierdie voorwaardes te gebruik, kan ons die bestaan van die oplossing vir die gegewe probleem wys en dit karakteriseer in terme van die mark parameters en die oplossing vir die duale probleem. In die laaste hoofstuk sal ons konkrete voorbeelde van die nutsmaksimering portefeulje probleem bestudeer vir spesi eke markte. Ons kyk eers na die volledige markte geval waar geslote-vorm oplossings maklik verkrygbaar is. Die gedetailleerde oplossing vir die klassieke Merton probleem met mags nutsfunksie word voorsien. Ten slotte, hanteer ons onvolledige markte onderhewig aan It^o prosesse en die Brown ltrering raamwerk. Die oplossing vir die logaritmiese nutsfunksie, sowel as die mags nutsfunksie word aangebied.

This thesis focuses on a certain type of nonlinear parabolic partial differential equations, i.e. PME and FDE. Chapter 1 consists of a survey on results related to PME and FDE, and a short review on some works about deriving gradient estimates in probabilistic ways. In Chapter 2 we estimate gradient on space variables of solutions to the heat equation on Euclidean space. The main idea is to construct two semimartingales by letting the solution and its gradient running backward on the path space of a diffusion process. Estimates derived from decompositions of those two semimartingales are then combined to give rise to an upper bound on gradient that only involves the maximum of the initial data and time variable. In particular, it is independent of the dimension. In Chapter 3 we carry the idea in Chapter 2 onto the study of positive solutions to PME or FDE, and obtained a similar type of bound on |∇u| for local solutions to PME or FDE on Euclidean space. In existing literature there have always been constraints on m. By considering a more general form of transformation on u and introducing a family of equivalent measures on path space, we add more flexibility to our method. Thus our result is valid for a larger range of m. For global solutions, when m violates our constraint, we need two-sided bound on u to control |∇u|. In Chapter 4 we utilize maximum principle to derive Li-Yau type gradient estimate for PME on a compact Riemannian manifold with Ricci curvature bounded from below. Our result is able to yield a Harnack inequality possessing the right order in time variable when the lower bound of Ricci curvature is negative.

Title: Random Processes in Reliability Analysis Author: Kamil Chovanec Department: Department of Probability and Mathematical Statistics Supervisor: Doc. Petr Volf, CSc. Supervisor's e-mail address: volf@utia.cas.cz Abstract: The thesis is aimed at the reliability analysis with special em- phasis at the Aalen additive model. The result of hypothesis testing in the reliability analysis is often a process that converges to a Gaussian martingale under the null hypothesis. We can estimate the variance of the martingale using a uniformly consistent estimator. The result of this estimation is a new hypothesis about the process resulting from the original hypothesis. There are several ways to test for this hypothesis. The thesis presents some of these tests and compares their power for various models and sample sizes using Monte Carlo simulations. In a special case we derive a point that maximizes the asymptotic power of two of the tests. Keywords: Martingale, Aalen's additive model, hazard function 1