Les prédictions astrologiques annuelles constituent un genre littéraire cohérent qui suscite deplus en plus d’intérêt de la part des historiens du Moyen Âge et de la première modernité. Cettethèse étudie plus particulièrement leur généralisation dans l’Europe latine entre 1405 et 1484,plusieurs siècles après les premières mentions dans les sources théoriques. Une première partieexplore la dialectique interne de ces « jugements », et en particulier les méthodes astrologiques qui,rigoureusement appliquées, soutiennent la prétention scientifique de leurs auteurs. Ceux-ci, leurmilieu social et plus généralement le contexte de production de ces prédictions font l’objet d’unedeuxième partie. Une troisième examine la réception contemporaine et la transmission jusqu’à nosjours de textes pourtant promis à une existence éphémère. Cette étude est complétée et étayée parun catalogue systématique de 111 prédictions manuscrites et 84 incunables rédigées en latin etconservées dans les collections publiques, et des 64 astrologues identifiés comme leurs auteurs.Enfin, les trois prédictions annuelles connues pour 1405, à la fois singulières et caractéristiques,font l’objet d’une édition critique commentée et traduite en français. / Astrological annual predictions form a consistent literary genre. In recent years, interest in thesematerials among Middle Ages and Early Modern Era historians has been increasing. This thesisspecially adresses the spreading of this kind of predictions in Latin-speaking Europe between1405 and 1484, several centuries after they are firstly mentioned in theoretical sources. Our firstpart explores the internal dialectics of these prognostications, and in particular the strictly-followedmethods of astrological calculation provided as support to the authors’ scientific pretensions. Thegeneral context of production, and the social background of these authors, form a second part ofthe thesis. The third part considers the contemporary reception of these astrological predictions,as well as their unlikely transmission until our days in spite of the genre’s ephemeral nature. Acomprehensive catalogue of the 111 handwritten and 84 incunable latin prognostications preservedin public collections, as well as the 64 astrologers potentially identified as their authors, completethis study. Finally, we offer a critical edition, with French translation and commentary, of the threeknown predictions for year 1405 which, in spite of their individual features, constitute model samplesof the genre.

Translations of works containing Arabic and ancient Greek knowledge of the philosophical and mechanical underpinnings of the natural world—a field of study called natural philosophy—were disseminated throughout twelfth-century England. During the twelfth and thirteenth centuries, institutional (ecclesiastical/university) scholars received and further developed this natural philosophical knowledge by reconciling it with Christian authoritative sources (the Bible and works by the Church Fathers). The subsequent discourse that developed demonstrated ambivalence towards natural philosophical knowledge; institutional scholars expressed both acceptance and anxiety regarding the theory and practice of alchemy, astrology/astronomy, and humoral/astrological medicine. While the institutional development and discourse surrounding natural philosophical thought is well-represented within medieval scholarship, an examination of the transmission and reception of this institutional discourse by broader sectors of English medieval society is needed. Examining fourteenth- and fifteenth-century Middle English public writings, texts, and copies of Latin works provides an important avenue of analysis when exploring the transmission and reception of institutional natural philosophical discourse to the laity. By comparing the similarities of discourse evident between the institutional and lay texts and the textual approaches the Middle English writers employed to incorporate this discourse, these works demonstrate that the spheres of institutional and lay knowledge traditionally separated by medieval historians overlapped as the clerics and laity began sharing a similar understanding of the philosophical underpinnings of the natural world.