Thesis (MScConEcol)--Stellenbosch University, 2012. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The fire-prone mediterranean-type climate regions of the world are immensely biodiverse. Changes in fire frequency due to anthropogenic ignitions and climate change are one of the factors threatening the plant diversity of these regions. Many postfire regeneration studies have focused on seedling recruitment, whereas much can still be learned about regeneration through resprouting. This project focused on resprouters after a fire and assessed if there are differences between the obligate (OS) and facultative (FS) resprouting life history types. OS species have to resprout after fire, as their seeds are not fire resistant and seedling recruitment takes place in fire-free periods, whereas FS species have the ability to resprout and recruit seedlings after a fire. My analyses found a significant difference in postfire resprout success between OS species and FS species, supporting the division of woody resprouting shrubs into these two life history types. OS species had minimal fire-related mortality and this was related to their ability to resprout early and vigorously after fire. OS species had no postfire mortality, which points to traits that enable them to endure the hot and dry summer months. The FS species varied in their response to fire and had greater fire induced mortality than the OS species. Postfire mortality (post-sprouting) was also greater compared to OS species, especially towards the end of the long dry summer suggesting a link to water stress. A postfire seedling survey of target FS, OS and non-sprouters (NS), revealed that NS species had seedling/adult ratios that were orders of magnitude higher ranging between 40-200 seedlings per adult against less than 1-10 seedlings per adults for FS, with OS species recruiting no seedlings directly postfire, as is consistent with their life history type. Although the NS species do not sprout and the FS species had some mortality, the population was at or above replacement two-year postfire on account of seedling recruitment. OS species maintained their pre-fire population by successfully resprouting and by experiencing almost no postfire mortality. These results provide strong justification for grouping woody resprouters into OS and FS species in future studies seeking to understand the underlying differences in postfire recovery. Postfire flowering phenology was also observed during the two year study period. Geophytes, mostly belonging to the Iridaceae and Orchidaceae were overrepresented within the first year postfire, many displaying fire-stimulated flowering. This suggests that some geophytes limit their reproductive cycle to the immediate postfire environment, when nutrients and light are abundant. Smaller resprouting shrubs generally flowered earlier than larger resprouting shrubs. Many non-sprouting shrubs did not reach maturity within the study period and those that did mostly belonged to the Fabaceae and Asteraceae families. This study added 71 species to the existing Paarl Mountain species list, including eight new red listed species, highlighting the importance of early postfire field surveys. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Veldbrande is ‘n natuurlike verskynsel in die meditereense klimaatstreke van die wereld. Hierdie areas is ook bekend vir hulle ryk biodiversiteit. Veranderinge in die vuur frekwensie as gevolg van klimaatsverandering en veldbrande wat deur mense veroorsaak word, bedreig die plantdiversiteit van hierdie streke. Vorige veldbrandstudies het meestal gefokus op saailinge en daar bestaan ‘n groot leemte om regenerasie deur herspruiting beter te verstaan. Hierdie navorsingsprojek fokus op herspruiting van fynbos plante as ‘n oorlewingstrategie na ‘n veldbrand. Spesifiek word daar gekyk na verskille tussen verpligte (VH) en nie-verpligte (fakultatiewe) herspruiters (FH). VH spesies moet herspruit na vuur om hulle populasie stabiel te hou, aangesien hulle saad nie vuurbestand is nie. FH spesies het die vermoë om te herspruit sowel as saailinge te werf na ‘n brand. Die studie bevindinge dui op betekenisvolle verskille tussen hierdie twee lewensgeskiedenistipes en regverdig die groepering van houtagtige herspruiter spesies as VH of FH. VH het minimale mortaliteit getoon na die veldbrand. Bykans alle plante het vinnig en kragtig herspruit. VH besit ook eienskappe wat hulle in staat stel om die warm, droeë somers te oorleef. Die oorlewing van FH was wisselvallig, met mortaliteit as gevolg van direkte vuurskade en verdere mortaliteit gedurende die lang somermaande, moonlik as gevolg van water stress. ‘n Saailingstudie van VH, FH en ook nie-spruiters (NS) het getoon dat die saailing/volwasse verhoudings van NS ordes hoër is as die van FH. VH het geen saailinge direk na die vuur geproduseer nie. Twee jaar na die vuur was FH en NS saailing getalle steeds heelwat meer as die aantal volwasse plante wat dood is in die veldbrand. VH het hul populasie stabiliteit gehandhaaf deurdat alle volwasse plante suksesvol herspruit het. Hierdie bevindinge regverdig die verdeling van herspruitende fynbos spesies as VH of FH. Verdere studies is belangrik om die onderliggende ekofisiologiese verskille tussen die twee lewensgeskiedenistipes beter te verstaan. Die blompatrone van verskillende spesies is ook aangeteken tydens die tweejaar studieperiode. Bolplante, veral in die iris- (Iridaceae) en orgidee (Orchidaceae) families het oorheers gedurende die eerste jaar na die brand, aanduidend van ‘n vuur-gestimuleerde blompatroon. Sommige bolplante mag hul voorplantingssiklus beperk tot die periode direk na veldbrand, terwyl daar genoeg lig is en die grond verryk is met voedingsstowwe. Kleiner herspruitende struike het in die algemeen vroeër geblom as groter struike. Nieherspruitende struike het meestal nie seksuele volwassenheid bereik binne twee jaar na die veldbrand nie, buiten sommige in die ertjie- (Fabaceae) en asterfamilies (Asteraceae). Die studie het 71 nuwe spesies tot die bestaande Paarlberg spesielys gevoeg, waarvan agt rooidataspesies was, wat die waarde van plantopnames direk na ‘n veldbrand beklemtoon.

abstract: Climate and land use change are projected to threaten biodiversity over the coming century. However, the combined effects of these threats on biodiversity and the capacity of current conservation networks to protect species' habitat are not well understood. The goals of this study were to evaluate the effect of climate change and urban development on vegetation distribution in a Mediterranean-type ecosystem; to identify the primary source of uncertainty in suitable habitat predictions; and to evaluate how well conservation areas protect future habitat in the Southwest ecoregion of the California Floristic Province. I used a consensus-based modeling approach combining three different species distribution models to predict current and future suitable habitat for 19 plant species representing different plant functional types (PFT) defined by fire-response (obligate seeders, resprouting shrubs), and life forms (herbs, subshurbs). I also examined the response of species grouped by range sizes (large, small). I used two climate models, two emission scenarios, two thresholds, and high-resolution (90m resolution) environmental data to create a range of potential scenarios. I evaluated the effectiveness of an existing conservation network to protect suitable habitat for rare species in light of climate and land use change. The results indicate that the area of suitable habitat for each species varied depending on the climate model, emission scenario, and threshold combination. The suitable habitat for up to four species could disappear from the ecoregion, while suitable habitat for up to 15 other species could decrease under climate change conditions. The centroid of the species' suitable environmental conditions could shift up to 440 km. Large net gains in suitable habitat were predicted for a few species. The suitable habitat area for herbs has a small response to climate change, while obligate seeders could be the most affected PFT. The results indicate that the other two PFTs gain a considerable amount of suitable habitat area. Several rare species could lose suitable habitat area inside designated conservation areas while gaining suitable habitat area outside. Climate change is predicted to be more important than urban development as a driver of habitat loss for vegetation in this region in the coming century. These results indicate that regional analyses of this type are useful and necessary to understand the dynamics of drivers of change at the regional scale and to inform decision making at this scale. / Dissertation/Thesis / M.S. Biology 2012