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Essays on the effects of past gains on subsequent risk-taking and stock returnsHaapalainen, T. (Tuomo) 09 October 2018 (has links)
Abstract
This dissertation contributes to the research on behavioral biases among individual investors by demonstrating how investors increase their portfolio volatility, i.e., risk, following favorable outcomes. This work also shows the influence of the first investment on subsequent risk-taking preferences. It also shows how stock prices, through unrealized capital gains, create an evident momentum effect following both bull and bear markets. The work is quite new because house money, quasi-hedonic editing rules and mental accounting are not frequently used in the financial literature. The data used are from the Finnish Central Securities Depository (FCSD), which is unique in the financial research literature.
The results of the first essay indicate that individual investors purchase stocks that increase portfolio risk or volatility after a period of negative market returns. These results propose that investors attribute these returns to themselves. Therefore, they are supporting a self-attribution bias. Ergo, investors gamble with their winnings over the next investment session. This behavior is consistent with the house money effect, which has not been before analyzed in the background of the stock market. Inexperienced investors are particularly prone to this effect.
The second essay investigates the effect of the outcome of the first investment on subsequent risk-taking preferences, which has not been previously analyzed in the context of financial markets. The database allows for analyses of new investors making their first stock market investment. The results show that in first or subsequent investments the win effect is stronger. The effect in the first investment situation results in higher volatility. Therefore, the result suggests that realized money is more likely to be risked in the situation of the first stock than in the situation of the other stocks.
The third essay, using a technique not before applied to research regarding momentum asymmetry, shows that deviations from the holdings- or volume-based reference price, i.e., the so-called capital gains overhang, can account for momentum. The results propose that after accounting for the disposition effect, overconfidence and biased self-attribution are not able to explain momentum asymmetry. / Tiivistelmä
Väitöskirja edistää yksittäisten sijoittajien käyttäytymishäiriöitä koskevaa tutkimusta osoittamalla, kuinka sijoittajat lisäävät salkun riskiä myönteisten tulosten jälkeen. Väitöskirja osoittaa myös, kuinka sijoittajat lisäävät salkun riskisyyttä ensimmäistä investointia myöhemmille riskinottopäätöksille. Se esittää myös, kuinka realisoitumattomat myyntivoitot aiheuttavat ilmeisen momentum-vaikutuksen, sekä nousevilla että laskevilla markkinoilla. Teos on melko uusi, koska talon rahoilla pelaamista, lähes-hedonisia muokkaussääntöjä ja henkistä kirjanpitoa ei käytetä kovin paljon talouskirjallisuudessa. Käytetyt tiedot ovat Rahoitustutkimuksen ainutlaatuinen Suomen Arvopaperikeskus (FCSD) aineisto.
Ensimmäisessä esseessä, kun sijoittajat ovat saavuttaneet tuottoja negatiivisten markkinatuottojen jälkeen, he ostavat osakkeita, jotka lisäävät salkun riskisyyttä. Nämä tulokset viittaavat siihen, että sijoittajat määrittävät nämä tuotot itselleen. Siksi he tukevat itsemääräämisoikeutta, joten sijoittajat pelaavat voitoillaan seuraavan sijoituskauden aikana. Käyttäytyminen on yhdenmukainen talon rahan vaikutuksen kanssa. Vaikutus, jota ei ole aiemmin analysoitu osakemarkkinoiden yhteydessä. Kokemattomat sijoittajat ovat erityisen alttiita tästä vaikutuksesta.
Toinen essee tutkii ensimmäisen investoinnin tuloksen vaikutusta myöhempään riskinottopäätökseen. Sitä ei ole aiemmin analysoitu rahoitusmarkkinoiden yhteydessä. Tietokannan avulla analysoidaan uusia sijoittajia, jotka tekevät ensimmäisen pörssi-investoinninsa. Tulokset osoittavat, että kummassakin tapauksessa, ensimmäiset tai toiset voitot, voittoefektit ovat voimakkaammat kuin voitto-dummy ja ensimmäisellä tasolla olevat voitot antavat suuremman vaikutuksen riskisyyteen. Kiinnostavaa on se, että tulo, joka kertoo, onko realisoitunut raha todennäköisemmin riski ensimmäisessä osakkeessa, on suurempi kuin riski muissa osakkeissa.
Kolmas essee käyttää menetelmää, jota ei ole aikaisemmin käytetty momentum-symmetrian tutkimukseen. Tämä tutkimus osoittaa, että poikkeamat volyymi- tai omistukseen perustuvasta viitehinnasta, eli ns. myyntivoiton ylitys, voivat selittää momentumia. Tulokset viittaavat siihen, että disposition ja liiallisen itseluottamuksen ja harhaisen itse-attribuution jälkeen ei voida suurella todennäköisyydellä selittää momentumin epäsymmetriaa.
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Att spara eller inte spara? : En studie om universitetsstudenters sparande och vad som påverkar sparbeteendet / To save or not to save? : A study about university students' saving and what affects the saving behaviorPettersson, Edvin, Trinh, Sandra January 2022 (has links)
Titel: Att spara eller inte spara? - En studie om universitetsstudenters sparande och vad som påverkar sparbeteendet Författare: Edvin Pettersson och Sandra Trinh Handledare: Camilla Strömbäck Bakgrund: Enligt livscykelhypotesen är det irrationellt för studenter att spara pengar. Däremot utifrån ett riskhanteringsperspektiv finns det anledningar till att spara vilket inte överensstämmer med livscykelhypotesen. Utöver denna diskrepans har tidigare forskning visat att det finns flera faktorer som kan påverka en individs sparande. Dock har tidigare forskning ofta varit kvantitativ och enbart fokuserat på hur en faktor påverkar sparande men inte om faktorerna påverkar varandra eller givit en bred bild över området. Syfte: Syftet med studien är att undersöka svenska universitetsstudenters sparande och behovet av det utifrån ett riskhanteringsperspektiv, samt identifiera, analysera och systematisera vilka faktorer som påverkar sparandet. Genomförande: För att besvara studiens syfte har en kvalitativ metod använts där semistrukturerade intervjuer har genomförts med tio svenska universitetsstudenter. Utifrån tidigare forskning uppmärksammades fem faktorer som påverkar sparande. Dessa faktorer låg sedan till grund för intervjuguiden och analysmodellen som skapades. Slutsats: Utifrån ett riskhanteringsperspektiv är det rationellt för svenska universitetsstudenter att spara. Det har gjort att de kan hantera likviditetskriser samt bygga upp ett eget kapital för att kunna ta lån i framtiden. Mental bokföring och finansiell bildning har gjort det enklare för studenterna att hantera sina självkontrollsproblem vilket har möjliggjort att de kan spara. / Title: To save or not to save? - A study about university students’ saving and what affects the saving behavior Authors: Edvin Pettersson and Sandra Trinh Supervisor: Camilla Strömbäck Background: According to the life cycle hypothesis, it is irrational for university students to save money. However, it might be necessary for university students to have a savings buffer to be able to manage liquidity risks and to afford more expensive purchases. Previous research has shown that there are several factors that affect a person’s saving behavior, but it has yet to investigate how different factors work together to affect the saving behavior. Aim: The aim of this study is to examine Swedish university students’ savings and the need for from a risk management perspective, as well as identify, analyze, and systematize which factors affect the saving behavior. Completion: To answer the research questions we have completed semi-structural interviews with ten Swedish university students. This study has used a qualitative method to be able to examine how students reflect on the needs to have savings and to identify if different factors work together to affect the university students’ saving behavior. From previous research we have identified five factors that affect a person’s saving behavior and these factors have been the basis for the creation of the interview guide and the model of analysis. Conclusion: From a risk management perspective it is rational for Swedish university students to save money to be able to manage their liquidity risks and build up their equity to enable loans in the future. Both mental accounting and financial literacy have been helpful for the students to practice self-control, which has made it possible for the students to save money.
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Three essays in household financeChangwony, Frederick Kibon January 2013 (has links)
This thesis explores the impact of two behavioural finance concepts, social psychology and psychology, on household financial decisions. Under social psychology, I investigate whether the variety and intensity of social engagement enhances stock market participation. With regard to psychology, I examine two behavioural biases. First, I investigate whether mental accounting influences portfolio choice in three asset classes and whether financial advice and housing tenure increase (decrease) the effects of mental accounts on portfolio choice. Second, I examine whether households’ self-reported housing wealth are anchored on published house price indices and whether anchoring bias is mediated by market information, mortgage refinancing decisions and social factors. The main contributions and findings in the three studies are as follows. First, although there is an elaborate body of research concerning the relationship between social engagement mechanisms and portfolio choice, most studies investigate specific mechanisms in isolation. Using three waves in the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS), I bring together five social engagement measures in one model and show that socially engaged individuals are more likely to participate in the stock market. Consistent with Granovetter’s (1973) theory of social networks I find that a weak tie (measured by social group involvement) has a positive effect on stock market participation whereas a strong tie (measured by talking to neighbours) has no effect. More trusting individuals are more likely to participate in the stock market, as are those who identify with a political party. In contrast, the degree to which religion is important appears to have little impact. These results are robust using different specifications. Overall, the results of this study demonstrate that the likelihood of stock market participation increases with the variety and intensity of social engagement. Second, despite the established theoretical underpinnings of mental accounting in behavioural portfolio theory (BPT) and recent extensions, not much is known about their implications in real life situations. I use a recent UK household survey, the Wealth and Assets Survey (WAS), which has comprehensive information about financial assets to investigate whether there are differences in the ownership and portfolio share of three asset classes among individuals who exhibit no mental account, a single mental account and multiple mental accounts, and the conditional influences of financial advice, housing, cognitive ability, time preference and risk tolerance. Overall I find that mental accounting together with financial advice and housing tenure explain variations in both the probability of ownership and portfolio share in the three asset classes. Households that exhibit a single mental account have low share of investments in, and are less likely to own, a risky asset when compared to those that exhibit no mental account or exhibit multiple mental accounts. I also find that, when compared to having no mental account, exhibiting a single mental account or multiple mental accounts increases both the probability and investment share in a fairly safe asset but decreases portfolio share in safe assets. In addition, among those that exhibit a single mental or multiple mental accounts, financial advice decreases portfolio share in risky assets and fairly safe assets and increases portfolio share in safe assets. Housing tenure increases both the probability and portfolio share in risky assets, decreases portfolio share in fairly safe assets and increases portfolio share in safe assets. These results are consistent using multi-equation regressions, sub-samples, reparametrised variables and poisson regressions. Finally, as little is known about how households derive the self-reported house prices estimates that are commonly used to determine housing wealth, the third study examines whether households are anchored on published house price indices. The key conjecture is that, while assessing the values of their homes, homeowners place more weight on house price news at the expense of property characteristics and other market information. I find support for this hypothesis using sixteen waves of the BHPS, multiple methods, and both regional and national house price indices. I conclude that changes in self-reported housing wealth are anchored on changes in published house price indices. Specifically, ownership through a mortgage and greater financial expectations increase anchoring effects while mortgage refinancing decreases the effects. Moreover, use of money raised from refinancing for home investment, as opposed to other consumption purposes, has a positive association with change in self-reported house value and both uses reduce anchoring bias. In addition, I find that computer use increases anchoring bias and, among social engagement mechanisms, religiosity reduces anchoring while other measures have no effect. These results are robust to internal instrumental variables, national aggregate house prices, alternative indices and sub-samples.
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Essays on mental accounting effects of personal carbon allowances : implications for transportation / Essais sur les effets de la comptabilité mentale : gestion des quotas personnels de carbone pour les transportsMarek, Ewelina 23 September 2016 (has links)
Toute procrastination à lutter contre le changement climatique aura pour conséquence une augmentation croissante des coûts à l'avenir (voir par exemple Stern, 2006). Le manque de changement dans le comportement des individus, indépendamment de l'investissement dans les technologies de réduction des émissions, pourrait entraîner des coûts exorbitants. Ces derniers sont déjà aujourd'hui très élevés en raison du faible nombre d’options disponibles pour réduire les émissions (Abrell, 2007; Bottrill, 2006; Proost, 2008; SDC, 2005). Par conséquent, des efforts sont nécessaires pour introduire des mesures politiques efficaces le plus rapidement possible. Bien que cette question concerne de nombreux secteurs de l’économie, cette thèse se concentre sur le secteur des transports car il s’agit de l'un des plus grands émetteurs de CO2 (CE, 2012). C’est également un secteur, qui se caractérise par des coûts de dépollution élevés. Cela signifie que tout progrès vers une technologie moins carbonée sera coûteuse et prendra du temps (Kesicki, 2012).Ostrom et al. (2012) signalent qu’une solution peut être trouvée en établissant et en appliquant des limites sur les ressources communes. De nombreuses études ont été entreprises à ce sujet (voir par exemple Dudley, 1993; Hackett et al., 1994; Kramer et al, 1986;. Randall, 1975, 1978;. Walker et al, 1991, 1992). Cependant, ce dernier n'a pas encore été épuisé. Au contraire, de nouveaux instruments de politique soulèvent de nouvelles discussions et suscitent le besoin pour de nouvelles recherches. Les « Personal Carbon Allowances » (PCA), aussi dénommés en français par le terme « permis d’émission », sont un de ces instruments. Le PCA est un instrument de politique publique de plafonnement et d’échange (« cap-and-trade ») dans lequel les droits d’émissions de carbone sont attribués à des individus. D'un point de vue néoclassique, les permis d'émission constituent un instrument de politique efficace et efficient dans la lutte contre la pollution (Weitzman, 1974; Montgomery, 1972). Ils entraînent une augmentation des prix qui couvre le montant exact des émissions produites par un individu. Toutefois, des éléments socio-psychologiques compliquent le problème. Cette thèse tente d’apporter un éclaircissement sur la manière dont l'économie comportementale pourrait être utilisée pour lutter contre la pollution de l'environnement du transport personnel. Elle fait des propositions concernant la mise en place des PCA et comment ces derniers pourraient influencer les choix personnels de déplacement. Plusieurs conclusions et recommandations en matière d’économie comportementale sont formulées dans quatre articles. Aux fins de cette thèse, trois des quatre articles sont basés sur des expériences. Dans les expériences de laboratoire, les sujets ont géré leurs quotas sous la dénomination française de « permis d'émissions » (et non de PCA) dans la mesure où l'étude a été menée en France. Une des conclusions mise en évidence par les expériences est que l'étiquetage a une influence positive sur les participants. L'effet de l'étiquetage pourrait être introduit dans le système PCA de différentes manières. Par exemple, les quotas de carbone personnels accordés à l’ensemble des activités pourraient être étendus sous forme de quotas pour les transports en commun. Les transports en commun pourraient être étiquetés dans le budget. Il s’agirait d’une alternative moins polluante que les transports privés., Les expériences montrent que les sujets, qui disposent d’un certain nombre de PCA à dépenser exclusivement pour les transports publics sont incités à privilégier ce mode de transport. Une autre leçon qui peut être tirée de cette thèse est l’importance du retour d’informations et d’expérience. Les individus peuvent non seulement s’appuyer sur leurs expériences personnelles passées pour faire des choix (y compris des choix de transport) mais aussi vouloir étendre leurs connaissances grâce au retour d'expérience ... / The excessive anthropogenic activities related to burning of fossil fuels emit around 80 percent of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere per year, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2014). Among the GHG emissions, the anthropogenic CO2 emissions belong to the most dangerous ones. About 40 percent of these CO2 emissions have remained in the atmosphere (880 ± 35 GtCO2) since 1750, contributing to the global warming effect (IPCC, 2014). Since the 1950s, humanity is clearly responsible for more than half of the observed increases in temperatures (IPCC, 2014). The world energy consumption in 2011 tripled when comparing to 1965 and it has increased more rapidly than the world population (BP and UN, 2012). The above problem concerns a number of sectors, but only one of them has become the main subject of this dissertation. More precisely, this dissertation focuses on the transportation sector, which belongs to one of the greatest contributors of CO2 emissions to the atmosphere ((EC, 2012). Researchers warn that if the personal transportation demand continues to augment, which is likely due to the steady increase in population and greater accessibility to transport modes, the levels of congestion could become intolerable and even more costly to mitigate (Stern, 2006; EEA, 2010; Ostrom et al., 2012). Lack of changes in individual’s behavior, irrespectively of investment in abatement technologies, could lead to excessive costs, which already today are estimated to be high due to a very few low-carbon alternatives available (Abrell, 2007; Bottrill, 2006; Proost, 2008; SDC, 2005). The essays presented in this dissertation shed some light on how insights from the behavioral economics could be used to tackle the environmental pollution from personal transportation. At the core, lies the implementation of a market-based policy instrument (i.e., personal carbon allowances) in hypothetical commuting choices. The personal carbon allowances, abbreviated as PCA, constitute “a right to pollute” the atmosphere during personal activities, such as commuting and traveling (Roberts and Thumim, 2006; Howell, 2008; 2012; Parag et al., 2011). This dissertation provides suggestions on how a PCA design could influence personal choices of commuting. On the basis of four essays, a number of conclusions were drawn, and policy recommendations were formulated. For the purposes of this dissertation, PCA was defined to be any ‘cap-and-trade’ public policy instrument in which carbon emission rights are allocated to individuals. Three out of four essays encompassed laboratory experiments. The experimental subjects managed their allowances under a term emission permits (les permis d'émission, in French) because the study was conducted in France. One of the conclusions that should be highlighted is that the labeling effect had a positive influence on the experimental subjects and that it would be beneficial to consider it in the PCA scheme. For example, the personal carbon allowances that are granted for all activities could be extended by allowances that would be valid for public transportation only. The public transportation should be labeled in the budget because it is a less polluting alternative to private transportation. Having a certain number of allowances for public transportation at their disposal, subjects may be more willing to use this transport mode in replacement of commuting by private transportation. Another lesson that can be drawn from this dissertation is that the provision of feedback matters. Moreover, individuals may not only rely on their personal past experiences but also may want to extend their knowledge by the feedback on activities of their peers or neighbours....
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