An eddy-permitting 2-1/2-layer Reduced Gravity Ocean (RGO) model is developed. Compared with the conventional 2-1/2-layer RGO models, the new model has improvements in subsurface thermodynamics, vertical mixing scheme and open boundary conditions. Using this new 2-1/2-layer RGO model as a dynamical tool, a systematic investigation of the role of oceanic processes in controlling tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature (SST) response to Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) changes is carried out by varying the strength of northward mass transport at the open boundaries. It is found that the North Brazil Undercurrent (NBUC) reverses its direction in response to a shut-down of the AMOC. Such circulation change allows warm waters of the northern subtropical gyre enter the equatorial zone, giving rise to a prominent warming in the Gulf of Guinea and off the coast of Africa. Sensitivity experiments further show that the SST response behaves nonlinearly to AMOC changes. The rate of SST changes increases dramatically when the AMOC strength is below a threshold value. This nonlinear threshold behavior depends on the position of subsurface temperature gradient. The new RGO is coupled to an atmosphere general circulation model (AGCM) (CCM3.6). The coupled model is capable of capturing major features of tropical Atlantic variability. With the aid of this coupled model, a series of experiments with different combinations of oceanic and atmospheric processes are carried out to elucidate the relative importance of the oceanic processes and atmospheric processes in AMOC-induced tropical Atlantic variability/change. It is found that the oceanic processes are a primary factor contributing to the warming at and south of the equator and the precipitation increase over the Gulf of Guinea, while atmospheric processes are responsible for the surface cooling of the tropical north Atlantic and southward displacement of ITCZ. The sensitivity of the coupled system to different strength of the AMOC is further investigated. It is found that equatorial SST and precipitation response also behaves nonlinearly to AMOC changes. The impact of AMOC changes on Tropical Instability Waves (TIWs) is assessed. It is found that the activity of TIWs is reduced in response to the AMOC-induced equatorial SST warming. Correlation analysis suggests that AMOC may affect TIW activities by modifying SST gradient north of the equator.

The South Atlantic has a relevant role on the AMOC variability as it includes two main conduits of its upper-ocean return flow: the NBUC and the IWBC that carry, mainly, the SACW and the AAIW and are originated from the bifurcation of the SEC. One of the hypotheses of this work is that analyzing the bifurcation variability it is possible to get an index of the AMOC changes. Another hypothesis is that in a global warming scenario, changes in the hydrological cycle would drive modifications in the water masses that are part of the AMOC, and thus, contribute to its variability. Four global model results were used, with different forcing and spatial resolution. Results show that changes in the bifurcation are linked to modications in the currents both caused by variations in the wind stress curl. Good correlations were found between the SEC bifurcation at the surface and the AMOC. The NBUC seems to be the link between them. Shallowing of the SACW core is related to an increase of the salinity on neutral surfaces. The AAIW is occupying less space in the water column due to an increasing of the salinity in the neutral surfaces at 11°S, while the opposite happens at 27°S / The South Atlantic has a relevant role on the AMOC variability as it includes two main conduits of its upper-ocean return flow: the NBUC and the IWBC that carry, mainly, the SACW and the AAIW and are originated from the bifurcation of the SEC. One of the hypotheses of this work is that analyzing the bifurcation variability it is possible to get an index of the AMOC changes. Another hypothesis is that in a global warming scenario, changes in the hydrological cycle would drive modifications in the water masses that are part of the AMOC, and thus, contribute to its variability. Four global model results were used, with different forcing and spatial resolution. Results show that changes in the bifurcation are linked to modications in the currents both caused by variations in the wind stress curl. Good correlations were found between the SEC bifurcation at the surface and the AMOC. The NBUC seems to be the link between them. Shallowing of the SACW core is related to an increase of the salinity on neutral surfaces. The AAIW is occupying less space in the water column due to an increasing of the salinity in the neutral surfaces at 11°S, while the opposite happens at 27°S

This study presents an analysis of observed Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) variability at 26.5°N on submonthly to interannual time scales compared to variability characteristics produced by a selection of five high- and low-resolution, synoptically and climatologically forced OGCMs. The focus of the analysis is on the relative contributions of ocean mesoscale eddies and synoptic atmospheric forcing to the overall AMOC variability. Observations used in this study were collected within the framework of the joint U.K.-U.S. Rapid Climate Change (RAPID)-Meridional Overturning Circulation & Heat Flux Array (MOCHA) Program. The RAPID-MOCHA array has now been in place for nearly 6 years, of which 4 years of data (2004-2007) are analyzed in this study. At 26.5°N, the MOC strength measured by the RAPID-MOCHA array is 18.5 Sv. Overall, the models tend to produce a realistic, though slightly underestimated, MOC. With the exception of one of the high-resolution, synoptically forced models, standard deviations of model-produced MOC are lower than the observed standard deviation by 1.5 to 2 Sv. A comparison of the MOC spectra at 26.5°N shows that model variability is weaker than observed variability at periods longer than 100 days. Of the five models investigated in this study, two were selected for a more in-depth examination. One model is forced by a monthly climatology derived from 6-hourly NCEP/NCAR winds (OFES-CLIM), whereas the other is forced by NCEP/NCAR reanalysis daily winds and fluxes (OFES-NCEP). They are identically configured, presenting an opportunity to explain differences in their MOCs by their differences in forcing. Both of these models were produced by the OGCM for the Earth Simulator (OFES), operated by the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science & Technology (JAMSTEC). The effects of Ekman transport on the strength, variability, and meridional decorrelation scale are investigated for the OFES models. This study finds that AMOC variance due to Ekman forcing is distributed nearly evenly between the submonthly, intraseasonal, and seasonal period bands. When Ekman forcing is removed, the remaining variance is the result of geostrophic motions. In the intraseasonal period band this geostrophic AMOC variance is dominated by eddy activity, and variance in the submonthly period band is dominated by forced geostrophic motions such as Rossby and Kelvin waves. It is also found that MOC variability is coherent over a meridional distance of ~8° throughout the study region, and that this coherence scale is intrinsic to both Ekman and geostrophic motions. A Monte Carlo-style evaluation of the 27-year-long OFES-NCEP timeseries is used to investigate the ability of a four year MOC strength timeseries to represent the characteristics of lengthier timeseries. It is found that a randomly selected four year timeseries will fall within ~1 Sv of the true mean 95% of the time, but long term trends cannot be accurately calculated from a four year timeseries. Errors in the calculated trend are noticeably reduced for each additional year until the timeseries reaches ~11 years in length. For timeseries longer than 11-years, the trend's 95% confidence interval asymptotes to 2 Sv/decade.

The Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) plays an important part in the Earth's climate, but the mechanisms that determine MOC response to climate change remain unclear. In particular, the relative importance of the adiabatic and diabatic dynamics in MOC is still under debate. This study aims to explore the relationship between the air-sea density flux and isopycnal MOC, and examine the possibility of diagnosing the adiabatic component of MOC from the air-sea density flux. This is done here using the concept of the "push-pull" mode, which consists of the adiabatic push into the deep ocean in the Northern Hemisphere and pull out of the deep ocean in the Southern Hemisphere. The evolutions of the isopycnal MOC and the "push-pull" mode are qualitatively similar. The maximum streamfunctions of the "push-pull" modes and isopycnal MOC both decrease by 3-5 Sv during 100 years, and their decrease is very similar to each other in the deep layers. In particular, the slope of the downward linear trend in the maximum is about -5 Sv per 100 years in both the "push-pull" modes and isopycanl MOC at the equator. The decrease in actual isopycnal MOC is faster at heavier densities than that at lighter densities. The first EOF mode of eigenvectors of the "push-pull" mode explains less percentage of variance than in the case of the isopycnal MOC at the equator. The detection of the global changes in MOC from the surface fluxes alone is feasible, if the surface fluxes are measured with sufficient accuracy.

Previous numerical and theoretical results based on constant diapycnal diffusivity suggested the abyssal meridional overturning circulation (MOC) should weaken as winds over the Southern Ocean intensify. We corroborate this result in a simple ocean model, but find it does not hold in more complex models. First, models with a variable eddy transfer coefficient and simple yet dynamic atmosphere and sea-ice models show an increase, albeit slightly, of the abyssal MOC under increasing winds. Second, the abyssal MOC significantly strengthens with winds when diapycnal diffusivity is parameterized to be energetically supported by the winds. This tests the emerging idea that a significant fraction of the wind energy input to the large-scale ocean circulation is removed by mesoscale eddies and may then be transferred to internal lee waves, and thence to bottom-enhanced diapycnal mixing. A scaling theory of the abyssal MOC is extended to incorporate this energy pathway, corroborating our numerical results. / Graduate / 0415 / gstanley@uvic.ca

The South Atlantic has a relevant role on the AMOC variability as it includes two main conduits of its upper-ocean return flow: the NBUC and the IWBC that carry, mainly, the SACW and the AAIW and are originated from the bifurcation of the SEC. One of the hypotheses of this work is that analyzing the bifurcation variability it is possible to get an index of the AMOC changes. Another hypothesis is that in a global warming scenario, changes in the hydrological cycle would drive modifications in the water masses that are part of the AMOC, and thus, contribute to its variability. Four global model results were used, with different forcing and spatial resolution. Results show that changes in the bifurcation are linked to modications in the currents both caused by variations in the wind stress curl. Good correlations were found between the SEC bifurcation at the surface and the AMOC. The NBUC seems to be the link between them. Shallowing of the SACW core is related to an increase of the salinity on neutral surfaces. The AAIW is occupying less space in the water column due to an increasing of the salinity in the neutral surfaces at 11°S, while the opposite happens at 27°S / The South Atlantic has a relevant role on the AMOC variability as it includes two main conduits of its upper-ocean return flow: the NBUC and the IWBC that carry, mainly, the SACW and the AAIW and are originated from the bifurcation of the SEC. One of the hypotheses of this work is that analyzing the bifurcation variability it is possible to get an index of the AMOC changes. Another hypothesis is that in a global warming scenario, changes in the hydrological cycle would drive modifications in the water masses that are part of the AMOC, and thus, contribute to its variability. Four global model results were used, with different forcing and spatial resolution. Results show that changes in the bifurcation are linked to modications in the currents both caused by variations in the wind stress curl. Good correlations were found between the SEC bifurcation at the surface and the AMOC. The NBUC seems to be the link between them. Shallowing of the SACW core is related to an increase of the salinity on neutral surfaces. The AAIW is occupying less space in the water column due to an increasing of the salinity in the neutral surfaces at 11°S, while the opposite happens at 27°S

In this thesis, I explore the climate system's response to symmetric abrupt and transient CO₂ forcing across a range of concentrations, from ⅛ ⨉ to 8⨉CO₂, relative to pre-industrial levels. I use two CMIP6 class models: the CESM Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) model configuration and the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model E2.1-G (GISS-E2.1-G). I use a hierarchy of (1) fully coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea-ice-land, (2) slab ocean, and (3) prescribed sea surface temperature simulations to analyze and support the findings. First, I find an asymmetric response in global mean surface air temperature (𝚫𝜯_s) and effective climate sensitivity (EffCS) between colder and warmer experiments. The 𝚫𝜯_s response at 8⨉CO₂ is more than a third larger than the corresponding cooling at ⅛⨉CO₂. I attribute this assymetry primarily due to the non-logarithmic CO₂ forcing, not to changes in the radiative feedbacks. Second, I identify a non-monotonic response of EffCS in the warmer scenarios, with a minimum occurring at 4⨉CO₂ (3⨉CO₂) in CESM-LE (GISS-E2.1-G). This minimum in the warming simulations is associated with a non-monotonicity in the radiative feedback. Similar non-monotonic responses in Northern Hemisphere sea-ice, precipitation, the latitude of zero precipitation-minus-evaporation, and the strength of the Hadley cell are also identified. Comparing the climate response over the same CO₂ range between fully coupled and slab-ocean versions of the same models, I demonstrate that the climate system’s non-monotonic response is linked to changes in ocean dynamics, associated with a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Third, to establish the significance of North Atlantic cooling in driving the non-monotonic changes in the radiative feedback, I conducted additional atmosphere-only (AMIP) simulations using the same models but with prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) restricted to different regions. Through these simulations, I uncovered that the minimum EffCS value, characterized by notably negative radiative feedbacks, primarily originates from relative cooling of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic. This cooling of SSTs contributes to an increase in low-level cloud content in the eastern region of the North Atlantic, subsequently leading to a pronounced negative (stabilizing) feedback response. Furthermore, I investigated the state dependence of the effective radiative forcing (ERF) from 1/16 ⨉ to 16⨉CO₂. I found that ERF increases with CO₂ concentration due to the increase in Instantaneous Radiative Forcing (IRF). Specifically, the IRF increases at higher CO₂ values primarily due to stronger stratospheric cooling induced by CO₂ forcing. On the other hand, the radiative adjustments counteract the IRF increase, causing the ERF to rise at a slower pace compared to the corresponding increase in IRF induced by higher CO₂ concentrations. Lastly, I studied the winter storm tracks in the Southern Hemisphere, focusing on experiments up to 8⨉CO₂. Through this analysis, I identified a non-linear response in the low latitude storm tracks. It is projected that the storm tracks will experience an intensification by the end of the century. However, my findings reveal that this intensification does not scale linearly with CO₂ forcing. In fact, the storm tracks shift poleward, including a reduction of the storm tracks at low-mid latitudes and intensification at mid-high latitudes.

The waters of the Indian Ocean southeast of Africa are a crucial junction for surface and deep ocean processes that serve as vital controls on Earth’s climate system. At the surface, the Agulhas Current, its retroflection, and Agulhas Leakage transfer water from the Indian and South Atlantic. The addition of this heat and salt to the Atlantic Basin helps drive the Meridional Overturning Circulation and the formation of deep water in the North Atlantic Ocean. On the timescales of centuries, the Meridional Overturning Circulation ultimately returns this water back to the Indian Ocean in the form of North Atlantic Deep Water. Proxy reconstructions show that the vigor of ocean overturning is immensely important to the global climate system, driving changes in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations and temperature and precipitation patterns across the planet. I use x-ray fluorescence core scanning, sediment provenance techniques, and core images from International Ocean Discovery Program Site U1474, located in the Natal Valley of the southwest Indian Ocean, to investigate past changes in the Agulhas Current and North Atlantic Deep Water. 40K/40Ar provenance ages measured on the clay fraction of sediment from Site U1474 indicate that, despite its great distance from the core site, the Zambezi is the most important factor influencing the deposition of terrigenous sediment in the Natal Valley. We present these results in a quantitative way, reinforcing the conclusions of previous studies. However, a comparison to newly available proxy records influenced by current speed and hydroclimate suggests that the strength of the Agulhas does not have a major influence on terrigenous sediment sources, at least at the headwaters of the Agulhas Current. Instead, I suggest that low-latitude hydrologic processes driven by zonal and meridional temperature gradients in conjunction with sea level are responsible for sediment source variability. In core photos, I found evidence for deep water variability in the Natal Valley in the form of millimeter-to-centimeter scale layers of olive-green sediment. To an overwhelming extent, these layers are formed during glacial periods, especially at their termination. I complement observations at Site U1474 with published proxy data for oxygen concentrations and measurements of total organic carbon percent in the Natal Valley and by extending our search for these green layers to core sites around the world. With these data, it is possible to confidently connect these layers to organic carbon concentrations in the sediment, reduction-oxidation processes in sediments following burial, and the local concentration of dissolved oxygen in the deep water. There are comparable fluctuations in the abundances of green layers in core sites in the path of North Atlantic Deep Water during glacial cycles, where more frequent and more intense green layer formation is driven by higher bottom water oxygen concentrations. Peaks in the abundance of green layers approximately 250 ka and 900 thousand years ago coincide with global scale excursions toward isotopically light benthic carbon isotopes. Connecting the green layers to the release of isotopically light organic carbon from sediments leads me to propose that long-observed fluctuations in the carbon cycle may be attributable to deep ocean oxygenation.

A Corrente de Contorno Oeste Profunda (CCP) é um dos principais componentes da Célula de Revolvimento Meridional do Atlântico e, portanto, é determinante para a manutenção do clima global. Ela é gerada nas regiões subpolares do Atlântico Norte e transporta as águas formadas neste sítio para o Hemisfério Sul. A sua trajetória bem como a sua variabilidade têm sido estudada ao longo dos tempos, mas informações acerva desta corrente no Atlântico Sul ainda são escassas. Estudos recentes mostram que ao sul da latitude de 8ºS a CCP se quebra em vórtices anticiclônicos e se propagam para sul. Reunimos um amplo conjunto de dados observacionais de cruzeiros oceanográficos e os utilizamos para observar estas feições ao largo da costa leste brasileira. Utilizamos o cálculo geostrófico referenciado em 4000 dbar a partir dos dados hidrográficos destes. Os resultados do cálculo geostrófico confirmam os achados na literatura, identificando estruturas vorticais com diâmetros entre 162 e 220 m e velocidades azimutais máximas ultrapassando 25 cm s-1. Um fundeio correntográfico instalado nas imediações da latitude 11ºS pela Universidade de Kiel no inicio do século foi utilizado para avaliar a regularidade e sazonalidade na formação dos anticiclones. Foi conferido que a formação de vórtices possui uma modulação sazonal, ocorrendo predominantemente em períodos que se observa uma maior intensidade da CCP, ou seja, de abril a setembro. Os resultados de simulação global do modelo HYCOM nos permitiram analisar a região de estudo de forma mais ampla, tanto espacial como temporalmente. A análise dos resultados de modelo sugere que a ocorrência de vórtices anticiclônicos da CCP entre 11ºS e 20ºS é bem regular e se propaga com velocidade velocidade de translação média de 5 cm s-1, porém é severamente interrompido ao se deparar com a complexa topografia ao sul de 17ºS. Entre os obstáculos topográficos, podemos destacar a Cadeia de Abrolhos (principalmente), o Monte Submarino Hot Spur e a Cadeia Vitoria Trindade, sendo que este último deflete para leste o escoamento associado provavelmente a uma CCP restabelecida. Embora os anticiclones da CCP tenham sido descritos há mais de uma década, acreditamos ser este o trabalho que primeiro mostra o destino e a destruição dessas feições ao largo da margem continental leste brasileira. / The Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC) is one of the main components of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and is therefor determinant in the maintainance of the global climate. This current has its origins in the subpolar region of the North Atlantic and transports the water mass formed at deep levels to the Southern Hemisphere. Its path as well as its variability have been studied in the last twenty years but information about the DWBC in the South Atlantic are still sparse. Recent investigations showed that the DWBC breaks into large anticyclonic eddies at around 8ºS. In this wrok, we gathered an ample observation data set of oceanographic cruises and used them to describe the vortical rings off the Eastern Brazilian coast. We emplyed the classic dynamics method referenced to 4,000 dbar to infer geostrophic velocity patterns from the data set. We indentify vortical structures of typically 162-220 km of diameter and azimuthal velocities higher than 25 cm s-1. A currentmeter mooring deployed by the University of Kiel in the begining of the century was used to investigate regularity and sazonality of the eddy formation and their passing of the 11ºS paralell. We found by inspecting the 5-year time series that there are about 3,7 events/year and a seasonal modulation dictated by the strength of the DWBC. More rings are shed during the April-September season when the DWBC is more intense and transports more. We also analyzed the output of a assimilative global simulation by the Hybrid Ocean Circulation Model (HYCOM) Consortium after validating it with our observational data set. Our results indicate that the anticyclones propagate at a characteristic speed of about 5cm s-1 until interacts with complex seamount topography at 17ºS. The topography is formed by th Abrolhos Ridge (17ºS), the Seamount Hot Sput (18ºS) and the Vitória-Trindade Ridge (20ºS). Moreover, it seems that the vast majority of the vortical features are destroted on the northernmost obstacle - the Abrolhos Ridge. Only a few survive and are destructed south. It seems from the analysis that a recoalesced DWBC existis nearby 20ºS, where it veers east and flows toward the interior of the Atlantic Ocean basin. We should emphasize that despite the DWBC anticyclones original description is more than a decade old, this is the first work to describe the fate of these large rings off the Eastern Brazil Continental Margin.

A Corrente de Contorno Oeste Profunda (CCP) é um dos principais componentes da Célula de Revolvimento Meridional do Atlântico e, portanto, é determinante para a manutenção do clima global. Ela é gerada nas regiões subpolares do Atlântico Norte e transporta as águas formadas neste sítio para o Hemisfério Sul. A sua trajetória bem como a sua variabilidade têm sido estudada ao longo dos tempos, mas informações acerva desta corrente no Atlântico Sul ainda são escassas. Estudos recentes mostram que ao sul da latitude de 8ºS a CCP se quebra em vórtices anticiclônicos e se propagam para sul. Reunimos um amplo conjunto de dados observacionais de cruzeiros oceanográficos e os utilizamos para observar estas feições ao largo da costa leste brasileira. Utilizamos o cálculo geostrófico referenciado em 4000 dbar a partir dos dados hidrográficos destes. Os resultados do cálculo geostrófico confirmam os achados na literatura, identificando estruturas vorticais com diâmetros entre 162 e 220 m e velocidades azimutais máximas ultrapassando 25 cm s-1. Um fundeio correntográfico instalado nas imediações da latitude 11ºS pela Universidade de Kiel no inicio do século foi utilizado para avaliar a regularidade e sazonalidade na formação dos anticiclones. Foi conferido que a formação de vórtices possui uma modulação sazonal, ocorrendo predominantemente em períodos que se observa uma maior intensidade da CCP, ou seja, de abril a setembro. Os resultados de simulação global do modelo HYCOM nos permitiram analisar a região de estudo de forma mais ampla, tanto espacial como temporalmente. A análise dos resultados de modelo sugere que a ocorrência de vórtices anticiclônicos da CCP entre 11ºS e 20ºS é bem regular e se propaga com velocidade velocidade de translação média de 5 cm s-1, porém é severamente interrompido ao se deparar com a complexa topografia ao sul de 17ºS. Entre os obstáculos topográficos, podemos destacar a Cadeia de Abrolhos (principalmente), o Monte Submarino Hot Spur e a Cadeia Vitoria Trindade, sendo que este último deflete para leste o escoamento associado provavelmente a uma CCP restabelecida. Embora os anticiclones da CCP tenham sido descritos há mais de uma década, acreditamos ser este o trabalho que primeiro mostra o destino e a destruição dessas feições ao largo da margem continental leste brasileira. / The Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC) is one of the main components of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and is therefor determinant in the maintainance of the global climate. This current has its origins in the subpolar region of the North Atlantic and transports the water mass formed at deep levels to the Southern Hemisphere. Its path as well as its variability have been studied in the last twenty years but information about the DWBC in the South Atlantic are still sparse. Recent investigations showed that the DWBC breaks into large anticyclonic eddies at around 8ºS. In this wrok, we gathered an ample observation data set of oceanographic cruises and used them to describe the vortical rings off the Eastern Brazilian coast. We emplyed the classic dynamics method referenced to 4,000 dbar to infer geostrophic velocity patterns from the data set. We indentify vortical structures of typically 162-220 km of diameter and azimuthal velocities higher than 25 cm s-1. A currentmeter mooring deployed by the University of Kiel in the begining of the century was used to investigate regularity and sazonality of the eddy formation and their passing of the 11ºS paralell. We found by inspecting the 5-year time series that there are about 3,7 events/year and a seasonal modulation dictated by the strength of the DWBC. More rings are shed during the April-September season when the DWBC is more intense and transports more. We also analyzed the output of a assimilative global simulation by the Hybrid Ocean Circulation Model (HYCOM) Consortium after validating it with our observational data set. Our results indicate that the anticyclones propagate at a characteristic speed of about 5cm s-1 until interacts with complex seamount topography at 17ºS. The topography is formed by th Abrolhos Ridge (17ºS), the Seamount Hot Sput (18ºS) and the Vitória-Trindade Ridge (20ºS). Moreover, it seems that the vast majority of the vortical features are destroted on the northernmost obstacle - the Abrolhos Ridge. Only a few survive and are destructed south. It seems from the analysis that a recoalesced DWBC existis nearby 20ºS, where it veers east and flows toward the interior of the Atlantic Ocean basin. We should emphasize that despite the DWBC anticyclones original description is more than a decade old, this is the first work to describe the fate of these large rings off the Eastern Brazil Continental Margin.