Submitted by Silvana Teresinha Dornelles Studzinski (sstudzinski) on 2016-09-21T14:14:01Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Eduardo Ledesma Al-Alam_.pdf: 233544 bytes, checksum: 8e97e55b0255cce4f24caadc4e00aa6b (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-09-21T14:14:01Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Eduardo Ledesma Al-Alam_.pdf: 233544 bytes, checksum: 8e97e55b0255cce4f24caadc4e00aa6b (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-07-29 / CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / A pobreza, embora tenha declinado nas últimas décadas, continua sendo um dos maiores desafios a serem enfrentados no século XXI. Este estudo investiga os efeitos da liberalização comercial sobre a pobreza em diferentes regiões em desenvolvimento do mundo. A análise ocorre de forma indireta, observando os impactos sobre a renda real e o bem-estar destas regiões. É utilizado o modelo de equilíbrio geral computável Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), sendo realizadas três simulações de liberalização comercial, buscando comparar os benefícios da abertura dos países desenvolvidos em relação à liberalização plena, com contrapartida dos países em desenvolvimento. Os resultados revelam que os ganhos de renda real e bem-estar das regiões em desenvolvimento são maiores quando elas próprias participam do processo de abertura ao lado das regiões desenvolvidas. As simulações vão ao encontro dos resultados de Hertel et al. (2009), em que a liberalização comercial realizada em todas as regiões se mostrou mais benéfica aos países mais pobres do que a liberalização comercial com ênfase apenas em países desenvolvidos, como é o caso da Rodada Doha. / Poverty, although declining in recent decades, remains one of the greatest challenges to be faced in the twenty-first century. This study investigates the effects of trade liberalization on poverty in different developing regions of the world. The analysis occurs indirectly, examining the impacts on real income and welfare of these regions. It used the model of computable general equilibrium Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), and held three trade liberalization simulations, to compare the benefits of the opening of developed countries with regard to full liberalization, with consideration for developing countries. The results show that the real income gains and welfare of developing regions are larger when they participate in the liberalization process together with the developed regions. The simulations are in line with the results of Hertel et al. (2009), in which trade liberalization carried out in all regions was more beneficial to the poorest countries that trade liberalization with emphasis in developed countries, such as the Doha Round.

Minerals are important natural resources and their development is a historically old, yet new, idea for creating economic prosperity in developing countries. Various researchers have evolved several arguments regarding the impact of mineral resources on development and growth, but they have yet to furnish a practical method of economic evaluation of mineral resources development. This thesis focuses on the economic impact of mineral resource development in a small developing country in the South Pacific Region, namely Fiji. Fiji has expectations and faces challenges in its natural resources development. The Namosi project, a large copper-gold mine development, has been proposed and is under consideration by the Fijian government, who is deliberating on whether mining resources should be developed as a means to add to its prosperity and economic growth or alternatively conserved from the standpoint of the environment and stability. In this study, four significant issues are analyzed viz.: 1) Whether the Namosi mine development project gives a positive net private return. 2) Whether the predicted amount of revenue flowing to the Fijian government from the Namosi mine development exceeds the estimated external cost (in this case, environmental cost) from its development. 3) The impacts of the project on various levels of the Fijian economy, and whether the mine development in Fiji results in an enclave industry; and whether mining has strong or weak backward and forward production linkages with the rest of the Fijian economy. 4) Whether “Dutch disease” will ensue from mining development in Fiji and its level of severity. Regarding issue 1) above, Private Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) is conducted by applying the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method to evaluate the Namosi mining project based on financial projections. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis is conducted in order to allow for possible variations in copper and gold prices. This analysis indicates that given the anticipated metal prices, private returns from this mining development are likely to be positive. Indeed, the current high metal prices would lead to high private returns. Regarding issue 2) above, Social Cost-Benefit Analyses are attempted. Under the given circumstances, the results show that the benefits of the mine project, as a whole for its 29-year life, substantially outweigh the environmental costs of the project to Fiji. However, due to a lack of available data on the economic magnitude of environmental spillovers, only estimates of environmental costs of the Namosi mining development could be made. Regarding issue 3) above, Input-Output model analysis is performed. Fiji’s total output (without production from the Namosi mine) is found to be F$5,529.917 million. It is estimated that the Namosi project will increase the output of Fiji directly by F$465.574 million (which includes the production inducement effect) and will result in an increase of F$543.788 million in overall Fijian output (GDP). This increase will also be followed by an increased output of about F$10-30 million in related industries, such as in the commerce, transport, and insurance sectors. Based on this Input-Output analysis, it is found that Fiji’s mining sector is an export-oriented enclave industry and that the mining industry itself has very little influence on economic activity in other sectors of the economy. Regarding issue 4) above, the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model analysis is applied. Evidence of the likely occurrence of Dutch disease can be detected from output indicators of each industry, consumer prices and exports. Examples of Dutch disease are as follows: a decrease in output of agricultural industries and in export-oriented domestic industries; an increase in consumer prices (inflation); a decrease of exports both in exportable agricultural products and in manufactured products oriented to exports. However, several macro-variables improve, such as employees’ income, trade (exports and imports), tax revenue, tariff revenue, VAT revenue, government account (savings and expenditure) and GDP etc. These results suggest that there could be a major increase in national welfare. Thus, from an economics point of view, it has been found (by comparing gains in Fijian government revenue with potential Fijian environmental costs) that it is very likely that development of the Namosi mine will result in a net social gain to Fiji. These results are based on the application of principles of social cost-benefit analysis and indicate that a Kaldor-Hicks improvement (a potential Pareto improvement) is likely for Fiji as a result of the mining development. This means that from the predicted net revenue gains of the Fijian government from mining, those who suffer environmental losses would be compensated and the government would still have some extra revenue left over. An actual Paretian improvement is also possible.