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Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Hawaii at Manoa, 1995. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 143-152). / Microfiche. / ix, 152 leaves, bound ill. 29 cm

Orientador: Maria Alejandra Caporale Madi / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-19T09:34:02Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Freddo_Daniela_M.pdf: 2232966 bytes, checksum: f3c245c19aa86dd98e6f0a563e3788cf (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011 / Resumo: O objetivo desta dissertação é examinar as transformações do sistema bancário norte-americano, no período 1930-2008, sob a ótica do negócio bancário: o banco é visto como agente central no processo de acumulação de capital. Analisam-se, neste trabalho, as tensões entre a ação regulatória e de política monetária do Federal Reserve e as estratégias de mercado dos bancos norte-americanos em conjunturas selecionadas: a Reforma Financeira da década de 1930; o período de inovações financeiras nos anos 1960 e 1970; a crise de Bretton Woods; o cenário caracterizado pelo Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act de 1999; a crise financeira iniciada em 2007; e possíveis impactos na estrutura financeira da economia norte-americana derivados da Lei Dodd Frank (2010). Entende-se que o marco regulatório firmado na década de 1930, nos Estados Unidos, cujo objetivo era evitar que crises financeiras profundas pudessem acontecer novamente, criou um período de bloqueio ao exercício do negócio bancário no mercado de capitais e, ao mesmo tempo, permitiu que os negócios neste último se desenvolvessem com maior liberdade. Como consequência houve impactos na divisão dos ativos financeiros entre os intermediários bancários e não-bancários. O período de Bretton Woods favoreceu um ambiente de concorrência no setor financeiro, o qual impulsionou o processo de inovações bancárias com impactos nas possibilidades de acumulação de capital nas órbitas financeira e industrial. Após a década de 1970, reafirma-se a tendência à superação dos bloqueios à expansão do negócio bancário, resultantes do marco regulatório que emergiu em 1930. Consolida-se, portanto, a dominância dos fundamentos de mercado na dinâmica financeira norte-americana. Pelo Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act de 1999, legitimam-se as inovações financeiras que possibilitaram o avanço dos bancos nos mercados de capitais. Nessa perspectiva, a crise financeira iniciada em 2007 e generalizada em 2008 é vista como consequência do processo de desregulamentação financeira / Abstract: This dissertation's objective is to examine the North-American banking system's transformations during the period between 1930 and 2008, when banks turned out to be the main agents of the capital accumulation process. It is analyzed the tensions between the Federal Reserve - considering both the monetary policy and regulatory actions - and the banks' strategies in selected periods: the 1930s Financial Reform; the financial innovations in the 1960s and 1970s; the Bretton Woods crisis; the 1999 Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act; the 2007/2008 financial crisis; besides the 2010 Dodd Frank Act. It is assessed that the regulatory framework established during the 1930s not only aimed to avoid that deep financial crisis could happen again but also created restrictions on the banking activity toward the capital market. Nevertheless, the Bretton Woods period favored an increase in the financial sector's competition that turned out to enhance banks' innovations in both credit and capital markets. As a result, after the 1970s, the banking activity overcame the 1930s regulatory constraints and the market fundamentals' preeminence was consolidated in the North-American financial dynamics. Through the 1999 Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, a deregulated financial system was institutionalized. Under this perspective, the financial crisis that begun in 2007 and was generalized in 2008 is understood as a consequence of the financial deregulation process / Mestrado / Ciências Economicas / Mestre em Ciências Econômicas

Sargent and Wallace have argued that the natural rate hypothesis combined with rational expectations eradicates the standard effects of monetary policy, unless the central monetary authority holds an information advantage over the general public. In defining rational expectations, John Muth wrote that "public predictions" or announcements do not affect markets since no new information is provided. This paper examines the question of whether money supply announcements provide new information to the bond market, suggesting a possible information advantage on the part of the Federal Reserve Board. Methodology originally used in connection with "causality" testing is utilized after comparing two different forms of the test. Evidence suggesting that money announcements do provide new information leads to questions concerning the time structure of the advantage, which are then tested. / Master of Arts

by Yan Chi-Wai. / Thesis (M.B.A.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1987. / Bibliography: leaf 68.

在全球化和改革開放的進程中，中國在各方面巳經取得了長足的進步，另一方面，外來衝擊也更容易侵入。在本文中我們主要關注世界上最大的兩個經濟體，中國和美國，通過貨幣政策所產生的聯繫。我們建立了若干個VAR 模型來分析美國貨幣政策的改變對於中國的影響以及意義。 / 我們發現，匯率波動是最主要的傳導渠道。基於這一點，文中的分析被劃分為兩個子時間段，以2005 年7 月的匯率改革為分隔點。在兩個時間段中，擴張性的美國貨幣政策衝擊都會引起流入中國的國際資本顯著增加，並以非FDI 的“熱錢"流入為主。在匯率改革之前，這一資本流入主要引起不可貿易品的需求增加，從而其相對價格提高，引起實際匯率升值，而對於經常賬戶和貿易收支的影響較小。相比之下，在匯率改革之後，這一資本流入引起的實際匯率升值主要通過名義匯率的調整來實現。雖然國內通貨膨脹壓力降低， 實際匯率波幅也沒有顯著上升，但是由於名義匯率變化對於出口的傳遞程度較高，貿易收支在短期內會明顯惡化。 / 為了增強分析的有效性和魯棒性，我們修改了VAR 的結構來觀察這一傳導機制隨著時間的演進。結果證明了最主要的轉折點出現在匯改附近，同時變量之間逐年的動態闕係也證明了以上的結論。 / 這些結果表明，在名義匯率和經常賬戶的穩定性，以及國內通貨膨脹的穩定性之間，存在著一個權衡關係。雖然對於浮動匯率制是否會帶來更高的實際匯率波動性本文並未發現很強的證據，但是我們觀察到它導致了經常賬戶更加劇烈的波動。在某些情況下，名義匯率升值甚至可以引起短暫的通貨緊縮現象，這在固定匯率制下是不會出現的。因此，邁向浮動匯率制的副作用不可被完全忽略，其中隱含的風險也在一定程度上說明了“浮動恐懼"這一普遍現象的合理性。 / On the transition path to a more globalized and open economy, China has witnessed a great progress in many aspects; meanwhile, external shocks are more likely to invade. In this work we focus on the connection between two largest economies, China and the US, through the channel of monetary policy innovations. Several structural VAR models are developed to analyze what a change in monetary policy stance of US implies for the Chinese economy and why this is important. / The principal transmission channel is through adjustment in exchange rates. We divide our analysis into two sub-periods based on the exchange rate reform in July 2005. Across both periods following an expansionary US monetary policy shock there is a burst of capital inflows concentrated within the first year that are dominated by non-FDI inflows, i.e., “hot money“. Before the exchange rate reform, these capital inflows lead to a rise in the demand for non-tradable goods, driving up their relative price, thereby achieving a real exchange rate appreciation. The effect on trade balance is relatively small. / Comparatively, after the exchange rate reform, real exchange rate appreciates due to the surge of capital inflows more through changes in nominal exchange rate. The inflationary pressure is alleviated significantly, and the short-run volatility of real exchange rate slightly increases. However, the pass-through of nominal exchange rate changes into exports is much higher, resulting in a short-run deterioration in trade balance severely. / To verify the validity and enhance the robustness of our analysis, we revise the identifying VARs to investigate the evolution of transmission over time. We show that the most significant turning point of the transmission channel coincides with the exchange rate reform, and comparison among dynamics of variables on a year-by-year basis confirms the previous conclusions. / It seems that there is a trade-off between the stability of nominal exchange rate and the current account, on the one hand, and the stabilization of inflation, on the other hand. Although we find only weak evidence that a more free-floating nominal exchange rate will lead to higher volatility in the real exchange rate, it may introduce higher short-run volatility in the current account. In some cases the appreciation in nominal exchange rate even generates a transitory deflationary effect that is absent under the pegged system. Therefore, the side effects of stepping toward a flexible exchange rate regime must be considered; the potential risk it involves justifies the “fear of floating“ to some extent. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Yang, Minmin. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2012. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 101-110). / Electronic reproduction. Hong Kong : Chinese University of Hong Kong, [2012] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web. / Abstract also in Chinese. / Abstract --- p.i / Acknowledgement --- p.v / Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter 1.1 --- Motivation --- p.1 / Chapter 1.2 --- Contributions and Major Findings --- p.5 / Chapter 1.3 --- Organization of the Thesis --- p.7 / Chapter 2 --- Literature Review --- p.9 / Chapter 2.1 --- Open Economy Theories --- p.9 / Chapter 2.2 --- Empirical Research on International Transmission --- p.13 / Chapter 2.3 --- China as an Open Economy --- p.15 / Chapter 3 --- Theory --- p.18 / Chapter 3.1 --- Traditional Theory --- p.18 / Chapter 3.1.1 --- Transmission under Fixed Exchange Rate Regime --- p.19 / Chapter 3.1.2 --- Transmission under Flexible Exchange Rate Regime --- p.25 / Chapter 3.2 --- Specific Issues in China --- p.27 / Chapter 3.2.1 --- Capital Control --- p.28 / Chapter 3.2.2 --- Sterilization --- p.29 / Chapter 3.2.3 --- Pass-through of Nominal Exchange Rate to Trade --- p.30 / Chapter 3.3 --- Summary --- p.36 / Chapter 4 --- Data and Methodology --- p.38 / Chapter 4.1 --- Vector Autoregression --- p.38 / Chapter 4.2 --- VARs models for the transmission of US monetary policy shocks to China --- p.41 / Chapter 4.2.1 --- Benchmark VAR to IdentifyMonetary Policy Shocks in the US --- p.41 / Chapter 4.2.2 --- Extend the Benchmark VAR to Include Chinese Variables --- p.45 / Chapter 4.3 --- Data --- p.50 / Chapter 5 --- Empirical Results --- p.57 / Chapter 5.1 --- Overview --- p.57 / Chapter 5.2 --- Transmission before the Exchange Rate reform --- p.59 / Chapter 5.2.1 --- Capital Inflows --- p.59 / Chapter 5.2.2 --- Exchange Rates and Prices --- p.62 / Chapter 5.2.3 --- Trade and the Current Account --- p.64 / Chapter 5.3 --- Transmission after the Exchange Rate Reform --- p.66 / Chapter 5.3.1 --- Capital Inflows --- p.67 / Chapter 5.3.2 --- Exchange Rates and Prices --- p.67 / Chapter 5.3.3 --- Trade and the Current Account --- p.69 / Chapter 5.4 --- Specific Issues in China --- p.70 / Chapter 5.4.1 --- Capital Control --- p.71 / Chapter 5.4.2 --- Sterilization --- p.71 / Chapter 5.4.3 --- Pass-through of Nominal Exchange Rate to Trade --- p.72 / Chapter 5.5 --- Summary --- p.77 / Chapter 6 --- Robustness: Structural Break in the Transmission --- p.79 / Chapter 6.1 --- Methodology --- p.80 / Chapter 6.2 --- Empirical Results --- p.87 / Chapter 6.3 --- Summary --- p.91 / Chapter 7 --- Conclusion and Future Work --- p.92 / Bibliography --- p.101

During the Great Recession of 2007 and 2008, liquidity and credit dried up, threatening the stability of financial institutions, particularly the banking firms. Traditional source of funds from the last resort, the Discount Window of the Federal Reserve System, failed to remedy the liquidity problem. To assuage the liquidity and credit problem, the Federal Reserve System established several emergency lending facilities and provided unprecedented amount of loans to the banking industry. Using a dataset published by Bloomberg LLP in the aftermaths of the financial crisis, which contains daily loan balances from the Fed, I conduct an event study to test whether financial markets are efficient in reflecting all public, anticipated and classified information in security prices. The most important contribution of this dissertation to the finance discipline and literature is the investigation and analysis of the Fed’s unprecedented loans to the banking industry during the Great Recession and the market reaction to it. The second major contribution of this study is the empirical test of strong form efficient market hypothesis, which has not been feasible due to legal data challenges. This dissertation has other contributions to the finance discipline and banking research. First, I develop an algorithm for measuring the amount of borrowing by banks. Second, I introduce a new “loan balance” ratio to traditional list of bank financial ratios. Third, I use event study methodologies to allow for cross-correlation, heteroscedasticity and event induced-variance change in studying US banks’ performance during the Great Recession.

An analysis of the current monetary policy framework in South Africa, which followed the exampie of a number of developed countries by implementing an inflation-targeting regime in 2000, is presented. The primary goal of the framework is to establish price stability, with financial stability a secondary objective. However, as has been evident in other countries, price stability does not guarantee financial stability. Movements in asset prices and the development of asset price bubbles have resulted in a number of episodes of financial instability, which negatively impacted on the growth and development of the countries involved. In addition, the majority of these episodes have occurred in periods of low and stable inflation. The dissertation analyses whether monetary policy would be more efficient if asset price movements were incorporated within the inflation-targeting regime. International experience indicates that early intervention of monetary policy can dampen the negative effects that result when an asset price bubble "bursts". However, if the monetary authorities act too early the effects on the economy can be just as disruptive. The literature is scrutinized to establish what the most effective form of monetary policy should be. The results are then transposed within the South African context to establish how the South African Reserve Bank can best ensure both price and financial stability.