Inflation is one of the often used monetary indicators in conducting monetary policy. Even though money supply is an essential determinant of inflation, it is not used in inflation modeling. Currently, output gap is considered as most predicative variable. This thesis brings the empirical evidence on the hypothesis of money supply carrying more information on estimating inflation than the output gap. It is provided on the case of 16 developed European economies using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). BMA is a comprehensive approach that deals with the model uncertainty and thus solves the variable selection problem. The results of analysis confirmed that money supply includes more information of inflation than the output gap and thus should be used in inflation modeling. These outcomes are robust towards prior selection and high correlation of some variables.

Prior studies examining the impact of monetary policy instruments on the equity market have produced mixed results. This problem is important to address because of the substantial impact of monetary policy on the economy and economic resource allocation via the equity market. The purpose of this study was to determine the impact of change in money supply (M2), change in Federal Funds Rate (FFR), and change in Federal Funds Futures (FFF) on the expected rate of returns of publicly traded companies while controlling for the rate of return of the whole equity market and size of the sampled companies. The capital asset pricing model formed the theoretical foundation. The research questions addressed the significance of the monetary policy instruments M2, FFR, and FFF on the expected rate of returns of publicly traded companies. The research design was ex post facto. To answer the research questions, annual data were collected for the period of January 2005 through January 2015 for the rate of return on the overall equity market, rate of return on stocks of 90 publicly traded companies, size of the sample companies, M2, FFR, and FFF. A multiple regression showed a positive effect of market rate of return and company size, a positive moderation effect of M2, and a negative moderation and mediation effect of FFR and FFF on the expected rate of returns of publicly traded companies (p < .05). These findings could have positive social change implications in that they may help individual and institutional investors in their investment decision making, leading to better allocation of economic resources. The findings may also assist monetary policy authorities in assessing the impact of monetary policy on the equity market and thus preempting stock market crashes.

This dissertation explores different aspects of the interaction between money and asset prices. The first chapter investigates how a firm’s financing affects its decision to update prices: does linking interest rates to inflation alter the firm’s optimal price updating strategy? Building on the state dependent pricing models of Willis (2000) and the price indexing literature of Azariadis and Cooper (1985) and Freeman and Tabellini (1998), this model investigates the financing and price updating decisions of a representative firm facing state-dependent pricing and a cash-in-advance constraint. The model shows the circumstances under which a firm’s financing decision affects its price updating decision, and how the likelihood of changing prices affects the amount borrowed. It also illustrates how the use of nominal (as opposed to inflation-linked) interest rates leads to a lower frequency of price updating and higher profits overall for a firm facing menu costs and sticky prices. The second chapter extends the bank run literature to present a theoretical mechanism that explains how money supply can affect asset prices and asset price volatility. In a two period asset allocation model, agents faced with uncertainty cannot perfectly allocate assets ex-ante. After income shocks are revealed, they will be willing to pay a premium over the future fundamental value for an asset in order to consume in the current period. The size of this premium is directly affected by the supply of money relative to the asset. This paper explores the relationship between economy-wide monetary liquidity on the mean and variance of equity returns and in relation to market liquidity. At an index level, I test the impact of money-based liquidity measures against existing measures of market liquidity. I proceed to do a stock level analysis of liquidity following Pastor and Stambaugh (2003). The results indicated that measures of aggregate money supply are able to match several of the observed relationships in stock return data much better than market liquidity. At an individual stock level, monetary liquidity is a priced factor for individual stocks. Taken together, these papers support the idea that changes in the money supply have consequences for the real economy. / text

Finansų krizė, kuri prasidėjo 2007 m. vasarą JAV, parodė, kad problemos, užgriuvusios vieną banką, gali išplisti visame finansų sektoriuje ir toli peržengti vienos šalies ribas. Bankai yra vieni pagrindinių dalyvių finansų sistemoje ir, kai jie nebegali atlikti savo pagrindinių funkcijų, ekonomikos augimas komplikuojasi. Bankų krizių aktualumas nemenksta jau seniai. Tai iš dalies sąlygoja šių krizių dažnumas. Kita vertus, ne mažiau aktualus ir jų tyrinėjimas. Yra suvokiama, jog praeitų krizių scenarijų supratimas gali šalims padėti pasimokyti iš praeities klaidų, išvengti krizių pasikartojimo ateityje. Atskirų šalių bankų krizių atvejų nagrinėjimai padeda geriau suprasti ryšį tarp bankų veiklos ir ekonomikos raidos. Bankų krizių įtaką šalies ekonomikai būtina išsiaiškinti užtikrinant bankų sektoriaus stabilumą, taip pat bankų krizių įtakos analizė padeda geriau nustatyti, kurie ekonomikos sektoriai krizės metu yra labiau pažeidžiami ir įgalina imtis prevencinių priemonių. Darbe sprendžiama problema – ar bankų krizės vienodai veikia skirtingo išsivystymo lygio šalių ekonomikos augimą? Tyrimo objektas: Atskirų Centrinės Europos atskirų šalių bankų krizės 1990-1998 m. poveikis ekonomikos augimui. Tyrimo tikslas: Įvertinti bankų krizės poveikį ekonomikos augimui, analizuojant atskirų šalių krizės padarinius. Siekiant įgyvendinti tyrimo tikslą, išsikelti šie uždaviniai: 1. Apžvelgti krizės teoriją ir taikomuosius tyrimus; 2. Išskirti bankų krizės atsiradimo priežastis bei jų... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / The financial crises that began in USA 2007 summer has showed that the problems appeared in one bank can spread throughout the financial sector and far beyond the limits of one country. Banks are key players in the financial system and, when they can no longer perform its basic functions, economic growth becomes complicated. Banking crises is the most popular issue. This is in part determined by the frequency of crises. It is known that understanding of last crises scenario can help countries to learn from past mistakes how to avoid recurrence in future crises. Studies of individual countries experience related with banking crises helps to understand relationship between banks‘ activity and economic development. It is necessary to clarify banking crises impact on economic in case to ensure the stability of the banking sector as well as to determine which sectors of the economy during the crisis are more vulnerable and it enable to take prevention measures. Main problem of final master’s work – do bank crises similar influence economic growth of countries with different development level? The object of research: banking crises in 1990-1998 impact on economic growth in selected Central Europe countries. The purpose of work: to evaluate banking crises impact on economic growth by analysing crises consequences appeared in individual countries. Tasks of the work: 1. To overview crisis theory and research. 2. To distinguish the causes and consequences of banking crises. 3. To... [to full text]

This thesis investigated money supply behaviors in the ‘BRICS’ group from 1982 to 2012. It empirically analyzed causality relationships between related monetary indicators by using quarterly data and time series econometric methods. In four countries: Brazil, China, Russia (the period of 2004-2012) and South Africa (1982-1993), this study found money supply endogeneity evidence (bank loans cause the money supply, or there is bidirectional between these two). Other countries, India and the 1982-2003 period of Russia, money supply was found to be exogenous, i.e. money supply cause bank loans. Nonetheless, traditional Monetarian view still holds across the five economies in the short run. The findings reflected discretionary monetary policies targeting monetary aggregates in the short term, despite a neutral role of most central banks in the long run.

abstract: Before 1990s, the relationship between money supply and inflation was positively correlated, however, from 1990 onwards, the US and other major developed countries entered into a new financial era with a typical belief that hyper money supply coexisted with lower inflation. This phenomenon is called “the paradox of inflation”. Traditional theories cannot provide reasonable explanations of this new phenomenon. In my study, I have taken the linear filtering techniques which Lucas developed in 1980, and the recursive estimation method, as well as the chow test and F-test, and choose the data of the US, Britain, Japan, Germany, Euro area, BRICKs and some members of ASEAN, from 1960 to 2012, to study the relationship between annual rate of M2 growth and CPI inflation. The results show that in most sample developed and developing countries the positive correlation relationship between money supply and inflation began to weaken since the 1990s, and “the paradox of inflation” is now a common phenomenon. In my paper, I attempt to provide a new explanation of “the paradox of inflation”. I conjecture that, in the past two decades, some advanced countries were becoming a “relatively wealthy society”, which means that commodity supply as well as money supply is abundant. I state that the US is a “relatively wealthy society” and try to determine what features could mark a “relatively wealthy society”. I choose the credit growth rate of nonfinancial sectors and the ratio of dividends to investment to represent the production inclination of the business sector, and choose the income per capita and the GINI index to represent the consumption inclination of the resident sector. Then, through a semi parametric varying-coefficient regression model, I found that, in the US, when the credit growth of the business sector is under 5%, the ratio of dividends to investment is over 0.20, the per capita income is more than $30,000, and the GINI index is over 0.45, the country becomes a “relatively wealthy society”. Base on this new explanation, I can conclude “in the relatively wealthy society, inflation is no longer a monetary phenomenon; it is a wealth allocation phenomenon”. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Business Administration 2015

The thesis deals with a monetary phenomenon of price deflation. In modern monetary theories, causes are sometimes confused with consequences. As to price deflation, consequences of causes of this phenomenon are often attributed to it while it is not a cause but a mere consequence. That's why we have identified causes of price deflation and their true consequences in the thesis. According to quantity theory of money, there are three main sources of price deflation as follows: decline in money supply, decline in velocity of circulation of money, and productivity growth. These causes are analyzed in detail, each of them in a single chapter. Price deflation is often associated with depressions while in some cases it might be a mere consequence of depression, not a cause. On the other hand, price deflation might also be a consequence of productivity growth (unless accommodated by increase in money supply) which makes it perfectly compatible with a healthy and growing economy.

博士(経済学) / 乙第409号 / ii, x, 194p / Hitotsubashi University(一橋大学)

Variations in macroeconomic indicators affect the performance of the stock markets. In Ghana, although the performance of the Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE) has been affected by macroeconomic variables from January 2000 to December 2013, the mechanisms of these relationships have not been studied. The purpose of this research was to examine the relationships between selected macroeconomic variables and their effect on the stock market returns on the Ghana stock market. The research questions addressed whether macroeconomic variables had significant effect on stock market returns in Ghana within the specified period. The target sample was all 36 listed firms on the Ghana stock market. Data were obtained from the Bank of Ghana bulletins, the Ghana Statistical Service website, and the GSE website. Time-series data analysis was used to determine whether there was a statistically significant relationship between stock market returns and inflation rate, exchange rate, interest rate, and money supply. The findings revealed that interest rates and money supply had a significant negative effect on stock market returns; however, exchange rates had a significant positive effect on stock market returns. Moreover, inflation rate did not significantly affect stock market returns in Ghana. The implications for positive social change include improved knowledge about the effects of macroeconomic variables on stock returns that could guide policy makers and household agents to improve investment decisions, thus increasing the net worth of these economic agents.

The following study assesses whether an economic relationship exists between the money supply (i.e. M2), interest rates, and the exchange rate and the retail food price level in the United States. Data for the M2 classification of the United States money supply, the Effective Federals Funds (interest) Rate, and the United States Trade Weighted Exchange Index: Major Currencies for the period from January 1974 through December 2007 are evaluated as they relate to the United States Consumer Price Index for all Urban Consumers: Food for the same period. The statistical analysis involves an examination of the autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions of each variable, a test for the presence of stationarity in each variable(Augmented Dickey-Fuller test), Johansen’s test for co-integrating equations of the variables considered, Granger’s test for causality, and finally an estimation of regression models of United States retail food prices as a function of the money supply, interest rates, and exchange rates. Results indicate that a statistically significant relationship exists among the variables tested. A causal relationship exists between the Federal Funds Rate and the money supply, the money supply and the retail level of food prices, and also between the exchange rate and the retail level of food prices. The implications of the results are assessed through the lens of agricultural producers and processors, investors, lenders, consumers, and monetary and agricultural policymakers. Keywords: retail food prices, money supply, Federal Funds Rate, exchange rate, augmented Dickey-Fuller, Johansen’s test for co-integration, Granger causality