This dissertation investigates the casual relationship between trade openness and economic growth in a sample of 87 countries (developing & developed) during the period 1970-2013. According to the previous literature, the openness-growth relationship seems to be relatively unclear and inconclusive, although the general tendency is that openness has a positive impact on economic growth. Our empirical results confirm this ambiguous relationship and provide evidence which vary across model specification. Regarding of the per capita income regression for all countries, trade openness has a positive but not a robust impact on income, as the coefficient of openness is positive but at the same time insignificant. As far as growth regression is concerned, it seems that there is a positive relationship between openness and growth for all countries. More specific, for developing countries trade openness has a negative effect on income per capita and a positive one on income growth. On the other hand, a negative relationship between openness and income per capita and income growth presented in our results for developed countries.

abstract: Before 1990s, the relationship between money supply and inflation was positively correlated, however, from 1990 onwards, the US and other major developed countries entered into a new financial era with a typical belief that hyper money supply coexisted with lower inflation. This phenomenon is called “the paradox of inflation”. Traditional theories cannot provide reasonable explanations of this new phenomenon. In my study, I have taken the linear filtering techniques which Lucas developed in 1980, and the recursive estimation method, as well as the chow test and F-test, and choose the data of the US, Britain, Japan, Germany, Euro area, BRICKs and some members of ASEAN, from 1960 to 2012, to study the relationship between annual rate of M2 growth and CPI inflation. The results show that in most sample developed and developing countries the positive correlation relationship between money supply and inflation began to weaken since the 1990s, and “the paradox of inflation” is now a common phenomenon. In my paper, I attempt to provide a new explanation of “the paradox of inflation”. I conjecture that, in the past two decades, some advanced countries were becoming a “relatively wealthy society”, which means that commodity supply as well as money supply is abundant. I state that the US is a “relatively wealthy society” and try to determine what features could mark a “relatively wealthy society”. I choose the credit growth rate of nonfinancial sectors and the ratio of dividends to investment to represent the production inclination of the business sector, and choose the income per capita and the GINI index to represent the consumption inclination of the resident sector. Then, through a semi parametric varying-coefficient regression model, I found that, in the US, when the credit growth of the business sector is under 5%, the ratio of dividends to investment is over 0.20, the per capita income is more than $30,000, and the GINI index is over 0.45, the country becomes a “relatively wealthy society”. Base on this new explanation, I can conclude “in the relatively wealthy society, inflation is no longer a monetary phenomenon; it is a wealth allocation phenomenon”. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Business Administration 2015

Estimating the Euro effect with Synthetic Control Method for Eastern Europe Abstract This thesis estimates the effect of Euro adoption on newest Eurozone members using synthetic control method. The effect is estimated on income per capita and GDP growth. Estimates indicate overall indecisive effect for Slovakia and Malta, neutral effect for Estonia and negative effect for Slovenia and Cyprus. The cost of Euro for Cyprus is estimated to be as high as 1/3 of GDP per capita. In some cases the direction of the effect changed before and after the financial crisis. The quality of inference suffers from low number of observations. Methodological assumptions are discussed, concluding that quality of Eastern European time series likely causes substantial bias in the results.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:52:38Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Caio Tadeu Simi.pdf: 1190736 bytes, checksum: b9dff49eaeaf026b3eee3dd0e3bf5d32 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-03-17 / In this present paper, we used the approaches of Acemoglu, Johnson, Robinson e Yared (2005) to analyze the influences of democracy and schooling on GDP per capita in a time panel from 1970 to 2010 with fixed effects. Our main conclusions are: I- Democracy has significance on product per capita only in medium term, but depends the institutional quality to its influence be distinguished. II- In a world cut, primary schooling in lag of 10 years is the educational variable with higher temporal influences in GDP per capita, still reinforcing the importance of first degree education in the modern scenario. III- Integrations and Historical estimators depends their pluralities to exercise significant impacts on product per capita. In our model, we observed that between the historical variables tested, the most influent was the one that considers the independence date of the observed countries, and global integration has only expressive effects on GDP per capita when applied in several spheres / No trabalho presente, utilizamos da metodologia de Acemoglu, Johnson, Robinson e Yared (2005-a) para analisar a influência da democracia e escolaridade no PIB per capita em um painel de tempo entre 1970-2010 com efeitos fixos. Nossas principais conclusões foram de que: I- A democracia tem significância no produto per capita apenas em médio prazo, mas depende da qualidade institucional para que sua influência seja significativa; II- No recorte mundial, a escolaridade primária em lag de 10 anos é a variável educacional de maior influência temporal no PIB per capita, ainda reforçando a importância da educação de 1º grau no cenário moderno; III-Estimadores de integração e históricos dependem de suas pluralidades para exercerem impactos significantes no produto per capita. No nosso caso, observamos que dentre as variáveis históricas testadas, a mais influente é a que relaciona a data de independência dos países observados, e que a integração global só tem efeito expressivo no PIB per capita quando executada em multe esferas

Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-02T19:51:41Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 2762.pdf: 1194251 bytes, checksum: 8dd7f0821ab0c92e5ee4a7545b3132a3 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010-01-05 / This text is going to show many ways that compose the IDH until the year of 2007 that they are going to be talked the analysis the development for the development from the countries for the Program of the Union Nation to the development from the Union Nation Organizations PNUD ONU. The first chapter is going to show the definition of IDH its particulars, methods of calculus and its structurations beyond the observation from three ways that componde the indicator in the actuality income per capita, health, and education. For helping in your understand, we are going to include the index of Gini to help us in our analysis. In the second chapter, we are going to do an analysis commented and compared of the Brazilian s IDH in terms of inner regions for that we could understand the discrepancies that there are in the same country being utile when analysis the Brazilian s IDH in general forms. In the third and forth chapter we are going to do the analysis of IDH among the nations, showing the evolution and the retreat of each country got along the years, their deficiencies in determinates sectors like social or economics, the characteristics and the reasons of the countries show us the variables of optimization of the quality of live in remains from nations that hale index medium and others in precarious situations. We are going to analyses the divergences that there we are among many region in the globe where we are going to do the calculus between the sub-regions, for examples we are going to analyses the IDH of Emirates Arabs, Africa, Subssariana, Latin America inside others. In the forth chapter we are going to show the IDH in 2007 with the brief report of the IDH the 2009 that gets their relatives facts to indicaters of 2006 the insert of Brazil in context latin and world-wide the observation of first placing, to the last, and the motives that took these countries to get these classification. In the fifth chapter we are going to show the criticism that are done in the index at the meaning of the same not portray with the total real fidelity condition of development that a nation meet and the possible inclusion of others variables that could do the IDH the index much precise. Also be boarding the difficulties of methodologies that exist in case of others variables go in to the index. At the of this text we are going to reunite the annexed of some interviews with professors, or specialist in the field of socialeconomics about the problematization of the index. / Esta dissertação enfocará as variáveis, que compõem o IDH até o ano de 2008, as quais serão abordadas na análise do desenvolvimento dos países por meio do Programa das Nações Unidas para o Desenvolvimento da Organização das Nações Unidas PNUD ONU. O primeiro capítulo apresentará a definição do IDH, suas particularidades, metodologia de cálculo e sua estruturação, através da observação das três variáveis, que compõem o indicador na atualidade: renda per capita, saúde e educação. No segundo capítulo, será elaborada uma análise comentada e comparada do IDH brasileiro em termos regionais (internos) para que se possam compreender as discrepâncias existentes dentro de um mesmo país, sendo útil, quando analisarmos o IDH brasileiro de forma geral. No terceiro e quarto capítulos, faremos a análise do IDH entre nações, demonstrando a evolução ou retrocesso que cada país obteve ao longo dos anos, suas deficiências em determinados setores sociais ou econômicos, as características e as razões dos países apresentarem variáveis otimizadoras de qualidade de vida em detrimento de nações que possuem índices medianos e outras em situações precárias. Serão analisadas, também, as divergências existentes entre as diversas regiões do globo, em especial os Estados Árabes, a África Subsaariana e a América Latina, dentre outros. No quarto capítulo, mostraremos o IDH de 2007, e mais um breve relato do IDH de 2008 (que possui seus dados relativos aos indicadores de 2006), a inserção do Brasil no contexto latino e mundial, a observação dos primeiros colocados, dos últimos, e as alterações nas posições relativas que levaram esses países a obterem essas classificações. No quinto capítulo, concluiremos apresentando as principais críticas feitas ao índice, em razão de o mesmo não retratar com fidelidade a condição de desenvolvimento que uma nação se encontra, ao mesmo tempo em que discutimos inclusões de outras variáveis, que poderiam fazer do IDH um índice mais preciso. Também serão abordadas as dificuldades metodológicas, caso outras variáveis entrassem no índice. Por fim, em anexo, foram reunidas algumas entrevistas com professores ou especialistas na área socioeconômica sobre a problematização do índice.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:48:39Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Cleuseni Hermelina de Carvalho.pdf: 1364887 bytes, checksum: 3b44bf46cef84a2cfa9ccc7046418cc7 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-10-24 / The programs of conditional cash transfer are increasingly playing an important role in combating poverty in many countries of Latin America, especially in Brazil. The objective of this work is to analyze the contribution of Bolsa Família in household income inequality in Brazil between 2006 and 2011. To achieve the purpose, we analyze the relative participation of eight sources of income: labor, pensions, Bolsa Família (proxy variable), pensions, allowances, grants, rents and interest in the five geographical regions, North, Northeast, Midwest, Southeast, and South and metropolitan regions. That said, this study was organized in three chapters. The first chapter presents a reinterpretation of the causes of income inequality backed in Brazilian literature. The second analyzes the income transfer programs in four Latin American countries: Mexico, Chile, Argentina and Peru. The third presents a mathematical technique used to decompose the Gini, we analyze the empirical results for Brazil, macro-regions and metropolitan areas. Finally, it is concluded that, among the presented results, the importance of the Bolsa Família and especially labor income to reduce the degree of inequality / Os programas de transferência condicionada de renda vêm cada vez mais desempenhando um papel importante no combate à pobreza em vários países da América Latina, principalmente no Brasil. Assim, o objetivo desse trabalho é analisar a contribuição do Programa Bolsa Família na desigualdade da renda domiciliar per capita no Brasil, entre 2006 e 2011. Para atingir o propósito, analisa-se a participação relativa de oito fontes de renda: trabalho, aposentadorias, Programa Bolsa Família (variável proxy), pensões, abonos, doações, aluguéis e juros, nas cinco macrorregiões e regiões metropolitanas brasileiras. Posto isto, o presente estudo foi organizado em três capítulos. O primeiro capítulo apresenta uma releitura das causas da desigualdade de renda lastreada na literatura especializada brasileira. No segundo analisam-se os programas de transferência de renda em quatro países latino-americanos: México, Chile, Argentina e Peru. O terceiro apresenta a técnica matemática utilizada para decompor o Gini, analisam-se os resultados empíricos para Brasil, macrorregiões e regiões metropolitanas. Dentre os resultados, destacam-se a capacidade do programa Bolsa Família em contribuir para a queda da desigualdade da renda domiciliar nacional, indicando uma possível focalização em seu desenho como política

The theory of economic growth predicts that poorer regions will eventually converge towards the income level of the wealthier regions (Barro & Sala-i-Martin, 2004). The aim of this Bachelor thesis is to establish if absolute convergence in Gross Regional Product (GRP) growth rates exists across LA-regions in Sweden during the period 1994-2004. The variables used in the model of absolute convergence are; the level of initial GRP per capita in the year 1994 and the growth rate of GRP per capita. The authors of this thesis find support of absolute convergence among Swedish LA-regions of 1.67 percent per year. Convergence estimations are also performed for high-, mid-, and low-performing groups of regions in respect to their income level per capita. The low-performing group of regions is in fact converging faster towards the income level of the wealthier regions in Sweden than the mid- and high-performing group. Alternative measurement of convergence is the so called sigma-convergence. The authors find that it only holds for the group of high-performing regions. However, this measurement cannot be considered reliable, as the existence of absolute convergence is necessary for sigma-convergence, but it is not sufficient. / Ekonomisk tillväxtteori förutspår att fattigare regioner med tiden kommer att konvergera mot samma inkomst nivå som rikare regioner har (Barro & Sala-i-Martin, 2004). Syftet med denna Kandidatuppsats är undersöka ifall det förekommer betingad konvergenstillväxt av Brutto Regional Produkt (BRP) nivåer mellan svenska LA-regioner under perioden 1994-2004. Variablerna som används i modellen för betingad konvergens är den ursprungliga nivån av BRP per capita under år 1994, och tillväxtnivån av BRP per capita under perioden 1994-2004. Författarna av denna uppsats har funnit stöd för betingad konvergens bland svenska LA-regioner med en konvergenstakt på 1,67 procent per år. En estimering av konvergens är därtill utförd för hög-, mellan- och lågpresterande grupper av regioner med respekt till deras inkomstnivå per capita. Den lågpresterande gruppen har en snabbare konvergeringstakt mot den inkomstnivå de rikare regionerna i Sverige har, än vad de mellan- och högpresterande grupperna. Ett alternativt mått på konvergens är den så kallade sigma-konvergensen. Författarna finner att detta mått endast håller för gruppen av högpresterande regioner. Emellertid kan inte detta mått räknas som tillförlitligt, då förekomsten av betingad konvergens är nödvändigt för sigma-konvergens, men det är inte tillräckligt.

<p>The theory of economic growth predicts that poorer regions will eventually converge towards the income level of the wealthier regions (Barro & Sala-i-Martin, 2004). The aim of this Bachelor thesis is to establish if absolute convergence in Gross Regional Product (GRP) growth rates exists across LA-regions in Sweden during the period 1994-2004. The variables used in the model of absolute convergence are; the level of initial GRP per capita in the year 1994 and the growth rate of GRP per capita. The authors of this thesis find support of absolute convergence among Swedish LA-regions of 1.67 percent per year. Convergence estimations are also performed for high-, mid-, and low-performing groups of regions in respect to their income level per capita. The low-performing group of regions is in fact converging faster towards the income level of the wealthier regions in Sweden than the mid- and high-performing group. Alternative measurement of convergence is the so called sigma-convergence. The authors find that it only holds for the group of high-performing regions. However, this measurement cannot be considered reliable, as the existence of absolute convergence is necessary for sigma-convergence, but it is not sufficient.</p> / <p>Ekonomisk tillväxtteori förutspår att fattigare regioner med tiden kommer att konvergera mot samma inkomst nivå som rikare regioner har (Barro & Sala-i-Martin, 2004). Syftet med denna Kandidatuppsats är undersöka ifall det förekommer betingad konvergenstillväxt av Brutto Regional Produkt (BRP) nivåer mellan svenska LA-regioner under perioden 1994-2004. Variablerna som används i modellen för betingad konvergens är den ursprungliga nivån av BRP per capita under år 1994, och tillväxtnivån av BRP per capita under perioden 1994-2004. Författarna av denna uppsats har funnit stöd för betingad konvergens bland svenska LA-regioner med en konvergenstakt på 1,67 procent per år. En estimering av konvergens är därtill utförd för hög-, mellan- och lågpresterande grupper av regioner med respekt till deras inkomstnivå per capita. Den lågpresterande gruppen har en snabbare konvergeringstakt mot den inkomstnivå de rikare regionerna i Sverige har, än vad de mellan- och högpresterande grupperna. Ett alternativt mått på konvergens är den så kallade sigma-konvergensen. Författarna finner att detta mått endast håller för gruppen av högpresterande regioner. Emellertid kan inte detta mått räknas som tillförlitligt, då förekomsten av betingad konvergens är nödvändigt för sigma-konvergens, men det är inte tillräckligt.</p>