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<div>Life cycle cost analysis (LCCA) has been defined as a method to assess the total cost of a project. It is a simple tool to use when a single project has different alternatives that fulfill the original requirements. Different alternatives could differ in initial investment, operational and maintenance costs among other long term costs. The cost involved in building a bridge depends upon many different factors. Moreover, long-term cost needs to be considered to estimate the true overall cost of the project and determine its life-cycle cost. Without watchful consideration of the long-term costs and full life cycle costing, current investment decisions that look attractive could result in a waste of economic resources in the future. This research is focused on short and medium span bridges (between 30-ft and 130-ft) which represents 65\% of the NBI INDIANA bridge inventory. </div><div><br></div><div>Bridges are categorized in three different groups of span ranges. Different superstructure types are considered for both concrete and steel options. Types considered include: bulb tees, AASHTO prestressed beams, slab bridges, prestressed concrete box beams, steel beams, steel girders, folded plate girders and simply supported steel beams for dead load and continuous for live load (SDCL). A design plan composed of simply supported bridges and continuous spans arrangements was carried out. Analysis for short and medium span bridges in Indiana based on LCCA is presented for different span ranges and span configurations. </div><div><br></div><div>Deterministic and stochastic analysis were done for all the span ranges considered. Monte Carlo Simulations (MCS) were used and the categorization of the different superstructure alternatives was done based on stochastic dominance. First, second, almost first and almost second stochastic dominance rules were used to determined the efficient set for each span length and all span configurations. Cost-effective life cycle cost profiles for each superstructure type were proposed. Additionally, the top three cost-effective alternatives for superstructure types depending on the span length are presented as well as the optimum superstructure types set for both simply supported and continuous beams. Results will help designers to consider the most cost-effective bridge solution for new projects, resulting in cost savings for agencies involved.</div>

Philosophiae Doctor - PhD / In this thesis we study a range of related commercial banking problems in discrete and continuous time settings. The first problem is about a capital allocation strategy that optimizes the expected future value of a commercial bank’s total non-risk-weighted assets (TNRWAs) in terms of terminal time utility maximization. This entails finding optimal amounts of Total capital for investment in different bank assets. Based on the optimal capital allocation strategy derived for the first problem, we derive stochastic models for respectively the bank’s capital adequacy and liquidity ratios in the second and third problems. The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) introduced these ratios in an attempt to improve the regulation of the international banking industry in terms of capital adequacy and liquidity management. As a fourth problem we derive a multi-period deposit insurance pricing model which incorporates the optimal capital allocation strategy, the BCBS’ latest capital standard, capital forbearance and moral hazard. In the fifth and final problem we show how the values of LIBOR-in-arrears and vanilla interest rate swaps, typically used by commercial banks and other financial institutions to reduce risk, can be derived under a specialized version of the affine interest rate model originally considered by the bank in question. More specifically, in the first problem we assume that the bank invests its Total capital in a stochastic interest rate financial market consisting of three assets, viz., a treasury security, a marketable security and a loan. We assume that the interest rate in the market is described by an affine model, and that the value of the loan follows a jump-diffusion process. We wish to find the optimal capital allocation strategy that maximizes an expected logarithmic utility of the bank’s TNRWAs at a future date. Generally, analytical solutions to stochastic optimal control problems in the jump setting are very difficult to obtain. We propose an approximation method that exploits a similarity between the forms of the control problems of the jump-diffusion model and the diffusion model obtained by removing the jump. With the jump assumed sufficiently small, the analytical solution of the diffusion model then serves as a proxy to the solution of the control problem with the jump. In the second problem we construct models for the bank’s capital adequacy ratios in terms of the proxy. We present numerical simulations to characterize the behaviour of the capital adequacy ratios. Furthermore, in this chapter, we consider the approximate optimal capital allocation strategy subject to a constant Leverage Ratio, which is a specific non-risk-based capital adequacy ratio, at the minimum prescribed level. We derive a formula for the bank’s TNRWAs at constant (minimum) Leverage Ratio value and present numerical simulations based on the modified TNRWAs formula. In the third problem we model the bank’s liquidity ratios and we monitor the levels of the liquidity ratios under the proxy numerically. In the fourth problem we derive a multi-period deposit insurance pricing model, the latest capital standard a la Basel III, capital forbearance and moral hazard behaviour. The deposit insurance pricing method utilizes an asset value reset rule comparable to the typical practice of insolvency resolution by insuring agencies. We perform numerical computations with our model to study its implications. In the final problem, we specialize the affine interest rate model considered previously to the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) interest rate dynamic. We consider fixed-for-floating interest rate swaps under the CIR model. We show how analytical expressions for the values of both a LIBOR-in-arrears swap and a vanilla swap can be derived using a Green’s function approach. We employ Monte Carlo simulation methods to compute the values of the swaps for different scenarios. We wish to make explicit the contributions of this project to the literature. A research article titled “An Optimal Portfolio and Capital Management Strategy for Basel III Compliant Commercial Banks” by Grant E. Muller and Peter J. Witbooi [1] has been published in an accredited scientific journal. In the aforementioned paper we solve an optimal capital allocation problem for diffusion banking models. We propose using the solution of the Brownian motions control problem of [1] as the proxy in problems two to four of this thesis. Furthermore, we wish to note that the methodology employed on the final problem of this study is actually from the paper [2] of Mallier and Alobaidi. In the paper [2] the authors did not present simulation studies to characterize their pricing models. We contribute a simulation study in which the values of the swaps are computed via Monte Carlo simulation methods.

Fondée sur deux analyses empiriques et sur un travail de modélisation théorique, cette thèse traite de la problématique du vieillissement de la population, en France, en termes de dépenses de biens et services de santé, et en termes de prise en charge des personnes âgées dépendantes. Dans un premier chapitre, une méthode de microsimulation dynamique est mise au point afin d'évaluer l'évolution des dépenses de médicaments remboursables (en médecine de ville) sous l'effet du vieillissement de la population et de l'évolution de l'état de santé chronique des personnes âgées. Un deuxième chapitre s'intéresse aux tenants d'une possible réforme de l'Allocation Personnalisée d'Autonomie (APA), qui viserait à récupérer sur la succession une partie des fonds versés aux personnes dépendantes. Nous développons un modèle théorique de transfert intergénérationnel en individualisant les décisions des deux membres d'une famille, un parent dépendant et un enfant aidant informel potentiel. Enfin, dans une dernière partie, nous évaluons empiriquement les facteurs modifiant la demande d'aide à domicile des bénéficiaires de l'APA, en nous concentrant, afin d'anticiper sur de possibles réformes de l'aide publique, sur l'évaluation des effets-prix dans la demande d'aide formelle. / This thesis addresses, using an elaborated theoretical model and two empirical applications, issues related to population ageing and health care expenditures as per the French context. In the first chapter, a method of dynamic microsimulation is developed to assess the evolution of outpatient reimbursable drugs expenditures as a result of the ageing population and the evolution of health status of chronically ill elderly people. The second chapter focuses on the ins and outs of a possible reform of the Personal Allowance for Autonomy (APA), which would seek to recover a portion of the funds paid to disabled elderly on the inheritance of their heirs. A theoretical model of intergenerational transfers is developed to study the individual decisions of a two-member family - a disabled parent and a child who can play the role of informal care giver. The final section presents an empirical evaluation of the factors affecting the demand of APA's recipients for home care. This work examines the price effects in the demand for formal care in order to anticipate possible reforms of public allowance.

The aim of my thesis was to clarify the basic concepts and calculations in the area of reliability of power distribution, as an important element for increase the quality of supplied electric power, this issue we examined in Chapter 3. In the previous chapter, we explained the fundamental solution of MV networks in the Czech Republic and Germany. In Chapter 4 we explained the difficulties in evaluating their values and comparisons between distributional companies, which follows that there should be a uniform procedure for the storage and collection of data for power outages. And the individual distribution companies should follow this standard.

Using a bioeconomic model and stochastic simulation to assess the economic viability of small-scale, recirculating shrimp farms in the Midwestern U.S. A series of stress tests were implemented on key input variables including survival rate, selling price, electricity usage, discount rate and the cost of added salt. The key output variable is the Net Present Value of the operation. <div><br></div><div><br></div>