The present study analyzed trends in communicable disease mortality in the State of Sergipe, Brazil over a period of 34 years. The purposes were to determine secular trends in mortality from these diseases, to identify age groups of greater mortality rates, and for SIDA, to determine incidence as well as mortality. It was an ecological study of time series and data were retrieved from the System of Information on Notifiable Diseases (SINAM) and System of Mortality Information (SIM) of the Health Agency of the State of Sergipe. The Joinpoint Regression Program of the National Cancer Institute, USA, performed trend analyses. The results we found showed that sepsis and gastroenteritis had greater mortality rates. The subset of Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTD) presented growing mortality trends, mainly schistosomiasis and Chagas’ disease; tuberculosis had growing trends only in males; and SIDA presented rising incidence and mortality trends in both genders, except in some age groups. It is imperative to implement new strategies in surveillance, treatment, and monitoring of specific diseases; to redesign SIDA control policies, particularly concerning to prevention, diagnosis, and care of the seropositive individuals. / Este estudo apresenta a análise da tendência de mortalidade por doenças infecciosas em um período de 34 anos no Estado de Sergipe. Os objetivos foram determinar a tendência secular de mortalidade por doenças infecciosas no Estado de Sergipe, identificar as de maior mortalidade, identificar as faixas etárias de maior ocorrência de mortalidade e determinar a incidência de AIDS no Estado de Sergipe. Trata-se de um estudo de séries temporais, parcialmente ecológico onde os cálculos de mortalidade foram realizados por meio de coleta de dados secundários obtidos do Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação e do Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade da Secretaria de Saúde do Estado de Sergipe. As análises das tendências foram calculadas pelo Joinpoint Regression Program do National Cancer Institute, USA. Os resultados encontrados evidenciam que a sepsis e as gastroenterites apresentaram o maior número de óbitos por doenças infecciosas; as doenças tropicais negligenciadas apresentam crescimento na mortalidade, principalmente a esquistossomose, e a doença de Chagas; a tuberculose apresentou no gênero masculino tendência crescente e significativa de mortalidade e a AIDS apresentou tendências crescentes de incidência e da mortalidade em ambos os gêneros, com exceção de alguns grupos etários específicos. Faz-se necessário criar novas estratégias nos campos de vigilância epidemiológica, terapêutica e acompanhamento das doenças estudadas e rever as medidas de controle da AIDS, particularmente no tocante à prevenção, ao diagnóstico precoce e à assistência aos soropositivos do estado.

The present study analyzed trends in communicable disease mortality in the State of Sergipe, Brazil over a period of 34 years. The purposes were to determine secular trends in mortality from these diseases, to identify age groups of greater mortality rates, and for SIDA, to determine incidence as well as mortality. It was an ecological study of time series and data were retrieved from the System of Information on Notifiable Diseases (SINAM) and System of Mortality Information (SIM) of the Health Agency of the State of Sergipe. The Joinpoint Regression Program of the National Cancer Institute, USA, performed trend analyses. The results we found showed that sepsis and gastroenteritis had greater mortality rates. The subset of Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTD) presented growing mortality trends, mainly schistosomiasis and Chagas’ disease; tuberculosis had growing trends only in males; and SIDA presented rising incidence and mortality trends in both genders, except in some age groups. It is imperative to implement new strategies in surveillance, treatment, and monitoring of specific diseases; to redesign SIDA control policies, particularly concerning to prevention, diagnosis, and care of the seropositive individuals. / Este estudo apresenta a análise da tendência de mortalidade por doenças infecciosas em um período de 34 anos no Estado de Sergipe. Os objetivos foram determinar a tendência secular de mortalidade por doenças infecciosas no Estado de Sergipe, identificar as de maior mortalidade, identificar as faixas etárias de maior ocorrência de mortalidade e determinar a incidência de AIDS no Estado de Sergipe. Trata-se de um estudo de séries temporais, parcialmente ecológico onde os cálculos de mortalidade foram realizados por meio de coleta de dados secundários obtidos do Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação e do Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade da Secretaria de Saúde do Estado de Sergipe. As análises das tendências foram calculadas pelo Joinpoint Regression Program do National Cancer Institute, USA. Os resultados encontrados evidenciam que a sepsis e as gastroenterites apresentaram o maior número de óbitos por doenças infecciosas; as doenças tropicais negligenciadas apresentam crescimento na mortalidade, principalmente a esquistossomose, e a doença de Chagas; a tuberculose apresentou no gênero masculino tendência crescente e significativa de mortalidade e a AIDS apresentou tendências crescentes de incidência e da mortalidade em ambos os gêneros, com exceção de alguns grupos etários específicos. Faz-se necessário criar novas estratégias nos campos de vigilância epidemiológica, terapêutica e acompanhamento das doenças estudadas e rever as medidas de controle da AIDS, particularmente no tocante à prevenção, ao diagnóstico precoce e à assistência aos soropositivos do estado.

<p>This thesis investigates health trends among very old people and the allocation of public home-help services. A further aim is to examine methodological issues in mortality analysis. Three data sources are used: (1) The Tierp study of community-dwelling persons (n=421, ages 75+), (2) the SWEOLD nationally representative samples (n=537 in 1992 and n=561 in 2002, ages 77+), and 3) SNAC-K comprised of home-help recipients in a district of Stockholm (n=1108, ages 65+).</p><p>Study I suggests that the length of the follow-up period may explain some of the differences found in predictor strength when comparing mortality studies. Predictors that can change rapidly (e.g., health) were found to be strongest for the short term, with a lower average mortality risk for longer follow-ups. Stable variables (e.g., gender) were less affected by length of follow-up.</p><p>Studies II and III present a measure of complex health problems based on serious problems in at least two of three health domains. These were diseases/symptoms, mobility, and cognition/communication. Prevalence of complex health problems increased significantly between 1992 and 2002. Older age, female gender, and lower education increased the odds of having complex problems. Complex problems strongly predicted 4-year mortality. Controlled for age, gender, health, and education, mortality decreased by 20% between 1992 and 2002. Men with complex problems accounted for this decrease. Thus, in 2002 the gender difference in mortality risk was almost eliminated among the most vulnerable adults.</p><p>Study IV revealed that physical and cognitive limitations, higher age, and living alone were significantly related to home-help allocation, with physical and cognitive limitations dominating. Psychiatric symptoms did not affect the assessment.</p><p>The increased prevalence of complex health problems and increased survival among people with complex needs have important implications concerning the need for collaboration among service providers.</p>

This thesis investigates health trends among very old people and the allocation of public home-help services. A further aim is to examine methodological issues in mortality analysis. Three data sources are used: (1) The Tierp study of community-dwelling persons (n=421, ages 75+), (2) the SWEOLD nationally representative samples (n=537 in 1992 and n=561 in 2002, ages 77+), and 3) SNAC-K comprised of home-help recipients in a district of Stockholm (n=1108, ages 65+). Study I suggests that the length of the follow-up period may explain some of the differences found in predictor strength when comparing mortality studies. Predictors that can change rapidly (e.g., health) were found to be strongest for the short term, with a lower average mortality risk for longer follow-ups. Stable variables (e.g., gender) were less affected by length of follow-up. Studies II and III present a measure of complex health problems based on serious problems in at least two of three health domains. These were diseases/symptoms, mobility, and cognition/communication. Prevalence of complex health problems increased significantly between 1992 and 2002. Older age, female gender, and lower education increased the odds of having complex problems. Complex problems strongly predicted 4-year mortality. Controlled for age, gender, health, and education, mortality decreased by 20% between 1992 and 2002. Men with complex problems accounted for this decrease. Thus, in 2002 the gender difference in mortality risk was almost eliminated among the most vulnerable adults. Study IV revealed that physical and cognitive limitations, higher age, and living alone were significantly related to home-help allocation, with physical and cognitive limitations dominating. Psychiatric symptoms did not affect the assessment. The increased prevalence of complex health problems and increased survival among people with complex needs have important implications concerning the need for collaboration among service providers.

Rationale: Vital registration is lacking in developing settings where health and development problems are most pressing. Policy-makers confront an “information paradox”: the critical need for information on which to base priorities and monitor progress, and the profound shortage of such information. Aims: To better understand the dynamics of mortality transition in rural South Africa over a decade of profound socio-political change coupled with emerging HIV/AIDS. Thereby to inform health and development programming, policy formulation, and the research agenda; and contribute to debate on the nature of the ‘health transition’. Methods: The Agincourt health and demographic surveillance system is based on continuous monitoring of the Agincourt sub-district population in rural north-east South Africa. This involves annual recording of all vital events, specifically deaths, births and migrations in 11,700 households comprising some 70,000 persons. A “verbal autopsy” is conducted on every death, and special modules provide additional data. Key findings: A major health transition has occurred over the past decade, with marked changes in population structure and rapidly escalating mortality particularly among children and younger adults. A quadruple burden of disease is evident with persisting infectious disease and malnutrition in children, emerging non-communicable disease in the middle-aged and older, high levels of violence in an apparently peaceful community, and rapidly escalating HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. There is evidence of sex differences and socio-economic differentials in mortality; vulnerable sub-groups include the children of Mozambican immigrants and recently returned labour migrants. Implications: With respect to health transition, empirical data demonstrate a marked “counter transition” with mortality increasing in children and young adults; “epidemiologic polarization” is evident with the most vulnerable experiencing a higher mortality burden; and a “protracted transition” is reflected in the co-existence of persisting infectious disease and malnutrition, emerging HIV/AIDS, and increasing chronic non-communicable disease. With respect to health policy and practice there is urgent need to: strengthen HIV/AIDS prevention, treatment and care; offer effective long-term care to control the rising burden of chronic illness and related risk; maintain and improve maternal and child health services; and address differential access to care. This poses a substantial challenge to a severely stretched health system.

Mortality development in Central Asian countries in 1986-2006 Abstract Before the collapse of the Soviet Union, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan were more or less comparable in terms of their socioeconomic development. Despite some differences in overall mortality levels, the five former Soviet republics were also very close to each other in terms of directions of mortality trends by age, and cause-specific mortality patterns. After 1991, all the five countries experienced substantial political and social transformations, and the challenges associated with the transition from a socialist to a market economy system. The sudden changes brought numerous problems, such as rapid growth in unemployment, falling standards of living, and growing social and income inequalities. These factors contributed to the significant deterioration of the health situation in all the countries, but the size and the nature of the mortality crisis was different. This work examines patterns of mortality across the Central Asian countries using data from the middle of 1980s until 2006 years. Based on these analyses we conclude that the emergence of high mortality during the 1990s has been accompanied by increase in circulatory and external causes of death.