S'han creat les eines necessàries per a estudiar la viabilitat de dur a terme la separació de mescles de dos i tres components basats en un mètode de separació en continu tipus SMB. Amb aquesta finalitat, s'ha creat un sistema per al disseny ràpid i econòmic de separadors SMB que permet simular el comportament d'una columna qualsevol integrada en un sistema SMB. Aquest sistema, està constituït per una sola columna cromatogràfica que pot treballar en qualsevol de les quatre zones en què es pot dividir un SMB.El sistema de control de l'instrument permet simular cicles complets de separadors SMB. A més, el programa també permet treballar amb separacions formalment binàries o ternàries, en conformacions de SMB de 4, 6 i 8 columnes i combinació d'elles agrupades en 4 zones de treball. El sistema també integra un programa de simulació numèrica i optimització de separadors SMB. La combinació del programa i el sistema de disseny de SMB permet establir la variació de la concentració de cada substància amb el temps podent així determinar: el nombre de columnes per zona, el temps de canvi de cada columna, el cabal d'operació a cada zona i la concentració de cada substància per cada sortida de l'SMB.Per tal de verificar el correcte funcionament de l'equip complet s'ha dut a terme la separació de dos components, fenol i triclorofenol, determinant-ne les condicions òptimes de separació. Tot i que la retenció entre aquestes dues substàncies és molt similar, el prototipus ha permès estudiar el comportament de la unitat SMB complerta. També s'ha estudiat la separació del p-aminofenol i l'o-aminofenol com a part integrant del procés de fabricació del paracetamol i se n'han trobat les condicions òptimes d'operació. En treballar amb aquest procés s'ha buscat la màxima puresa del p-aminofenol en detriment de la puresa de l'o-aminofenol aconseguint una puresa de p-aminofenol a la sortida refinat del 97%. Finalment, i des del punt de vista del canvi d'escala, s'han determinat els valors de la longitud no utilitzada de rebliment i del coeficient global de transferència de matèria per tal de poder extrapolar els resultats del prototipus a escala industrial. / Se han creado las herramientas necesarias para estudiar la viabilidad de desarrollar separaciones de mezclas de 2 y 3 componentes basados en un método de separación en continuo tipo SMB. Con esta finalidad se ha creado un sistema para el diseño rápido y económico de separadores SMB que permite simular el comportamiento de una columna cualquiera integrada en un sistema SMB. Este sistema está constituido por una única columna cromatográfica que puede trabajar en cualquiera de las cuatro zonas en que se puede dividir un SMB.El sistema de control del instrumento permite simular ciclos completos de separadores SMB. Además, el programa también permite trabajar con separaciones formalmente binarias o ternarias, en conformaciones de SMB de 4, 6 y 8 columnas y combinación de ellas agrupadas en 4 zonas de trabajo. El sistema también integra un programa de simulación numérica y optimización de separadores SMB. La combinación del programa y el sistema de diseño de SMB permite establecer la variación de la concentración de cada sustancia con el tiempo pudiendo así determinar: el número de columnas por zona, el tiempo de cambio de cada columna, el caudal de operación en cada zona y la concentración de cada sustancia por cada salida del SMB. Para verificar el correcto funcionamiento del equipo completo se ha separado una mezcla de dos compuestos, fenol y triclorofenol, determinando las condiciones óptimas de separación. Aunque la retención entre estas dos sustancias es muy similar, el prototipo ha permitido estudiar el comportamiento de la unidad SMB completa. También se ha estudiado la separación del p-aminofenol y el o-aminofenol como parte integrante del proceso de fabricación del paracetamol y se han determinado las condiciones óptimas de operación. Al trabajar con este proceso se ha buscado la máxima pureza del p-aminofenol con menoscabo de la pureza del o-aminofenol consiguiendo una pureza de p-aminofenol a la salida de refinado del 97%. Finalmente se han determinado los valores de la longitud de lecho no utilizada y del coeficiente global de transferencia de materia para extrapolar los resultados del prototipo a escala industrial. / The necessary tools to study the viability of developing separations of mixtures of 2 and 3 components using a continuous method like the SMB have been developed. A fast and non-expensive system to design such separations has been developed. This system can simulate the behaviour of a single column integrated in the SMB. This system is composed by a single column capable to work in every one of the four zones into which an SMB can be divided. The control system gives the possibility of simulate complete cycles of an SMB separator. In addition the program also can work with binary or ternary separations, in SMB conformations of 4, 6 and 8 columns and its combinations grouped together in 4 working zones. The system also integrates a numerical simulation and optimization program of SMB separators. The combination of program and SMB design system establishes the concentration of each substance within the time. It gives the following parameters: the number of columns per zone, the column switch time, the flow in each zone and the concentration at the SMB outlet. In order to check the correct operation of the whole unit the separation of phenol and trichlorophenol have been done determining the best operation conditions. However the retention of this substances is very similar, the prototype has studied the complete separation. It also has been studied the separation of p-aminophenol and o-aminophenol as a part of the sysntesis process os paracetamole and the best separation condition have been stablished. While working with this process the maximum purity of p-aminophenol has been searched. The purity of p-aminophenol at the raffinate outlet is about 97%. Finally the values of unused bed lenght and overall mass transfer coefficient have been calculated to extrapolate the results to the industrial scale.

Orientador: Cristina Meneguello / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Filosofia e Ciencias Humanas / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-10T21:58:29Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Maciel_AnaCarolinadeMouraDelfim_D.pdf: 42216695 bytes, checksum: c8b39a500702f3f74e472466c897c5f4 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008 / Resumo: Esta tese tem como objetivo investigar a trajetória da atriz Eliane Lage, integrante da história do cinema brasileiro dos anos 1950. A eleição e divulgação de um grupo de atrizes - integrando a busca pela implantação de um star system do cinema brasileiro - foram resultantes da tentativa de industrialização do cinema paulista, levada adiante por Franco Zampari e Francisco Matarazzo Sobrinho, por meio da fundação da Companhia Cinematográfica Vera Cruz no ano de 1949. Sendo assim ¿ visto que Eliane Lage foi lançada como atriz por essa Companhia ¿ situo inicialmente a proposta desses estúdios que pretenderam inaugurar no país uma produção em escala e com qualidade técnica, nos moldes do studio system de cinematografias hegemônicas. O Departamento de Publicidade da Vera Cruz desempenhava o papel de eleger e divulgar atrizes (e também atores) que estrelavam seus filmes. Dentre astros e estrelas desse período Eliane Lage é particularmente interessante, pois seguiu a tônica de negar a importância da carreira cinematográfica, conforme analisarei mais detidamente. Assim, uma análise do star system brasileiro se fez necessária. Confluindo três temas principais quais sejam: a Cinematográfica Vera Cruz, o star system brasileiro e atriz Eliane Lage, pretendo lançar nova luz a alguns sensos comuns que envolvem o fim da Vera Cruz e também a fugaz carreira de Eliane Lage. Os mitos que se constituíram em torno da atriz ao longo de décadas, seu comportamento na imprensa e, igualmente, as imagens que prevaleceram ao longo de seu "desaparecimento" da vida pública são alguns dos aspectos analisados na presente tese / Abstract: This thesis aims at investigating the life trajectory of Brazilian actress Eliane Lage, who was part of the history of Brazilian cinema in the 1950s. Choosing and marketing a group of actresses ¿ as an attempt to implement a star system in the Brazilian cinema ¿ resulted from an attempt to create a movie industry in São Paulo, and this was carried out by Franco Zampari and Francisco Matarazzo Sobrinho through the creation of the Vera Cruz Movie Company (Companhia Cinematográfica Vera Cruz) in the year of 1949. Therefore, ¿ seing that Eliane Lage was officially launched as an actress by this Company ¿ I, initially, address the proposal of the studios which aimed at implementing in Brazil quality movie productions in scale mirrored in hegemonic movie studio systems. The Vera Cruz Marketing Department played a role in choosing and marketing the actresses (and actors) that starred their movies. Among all the male and female stars of this period, Eliane Lage is particularly interesting, because she adopted the position of denying the importance of a career in the movie industry as this study will show in more detail. Therefore, we consider an analysis of the Brazilian star system necessary. By bringing together three main topics: the Vera Cruz Movie Company, the Brazilian star system, and actress Eliane Lage, I intend to shed some light on a number of common sense issues concerning the end of the Vera Cruz Company and Eliane Lage¿s ephemeral career. The myths created involving the actress in the past decades, her behavior in the media and, equally, the images that have prevailed during her "disappearance" from public life, are some of the aspects addressed in this thesis / Doutorado / Politica, Memoria e Cidade / Doutor em História

This thesis is devoted to the optimization of pacing strategies in two locomotive endurance sports; cross-country skiing and road cycling. It has been established that constant pace and variable power distributions are optimal if purely mechanical aspects of locomotion are considered in these sports. However, there is a lack of research that theoretically investigates optimal pacing for real world athletes who are constrained in their ability to generate power output through the bioenergetics of the human body. The aims of this thesis are to develop numerical pacing strategy optimization models and bioenergetic models for locomotive endurance sports and use these to assess objectives relevant in optimal pacing. These objectives include: Investigate the impact of hills, sharp course bends, ambient wind, and bioenergetic models on optimal pacing and assess the effect of optimal pacing strategies on performance. This thesis presents mathematical models for optimization of pacing strategies. These models are divided into mechanical locomotion, bioenergetic, and optimization models that are connected and programmed numerically. The locomotion and bioenergetic models in this thesis consist of differential equations and the optimization model is described by an iterative gradient-based routine. The mechanical model describes the relation between the power output generated by an athlete and his/her locomotion along a course profile, giving the finishing time. The bioenergetic model strives to mimic the human ability to generate power output. Therefore, the bioenergetic model is set to constrain the power output that is used in the mechanical locomotion model. The optimization routine strives to minimize the finishing time in the mechanical locomotion model by varying the distribution of power output along the course, still satisfying the constraints in the bioenergetic model. The studies contained within this thesis resulted in several important findings regarding the general application of pacing strategies in cross-country skiing and road cycling. It was shown that the constant pace strategy is not optimal if ambient conditions change over the course distance. However, variable power distributions were shown beneficial if they vary in parallel with course inclination and ambient winds to decrease variations in speed. Despite these power variations, speed variations were not eliminated for most variable ambient conditions. This relates to the athlete’s physiological restrictions and the effect of these are hard to predict without thorough modeling of bioenergetics and muscle fatigue. Furthermore, it vi was shown that substantial differences in optimal power distributions were attained for various bioenergetic models. It was also shown that optimal braking and power output distributions for cycling on courses that involve sharp bends consisted of three or four phases, depending on the length of the course and the position of the bends. The four phases distinguished for reasonably long courses were a steady-state power phase, a rolling phase, a braking phase, and an all-out acceleration phase. It was also shown that positive pacing strategies are optimal on relatively long courses in road cycling where the supply of carbohydrates are limited. Finally, results indicated that optimal pacing may overlook the effect of some ambient conditions in favor of other more influential, mechanical or physiological, aspects of locomotion. In summary, the results showed that athletes benefit from adapting their power output with respect not only to changing course gradients and ambient winds, but also to their own physiological and biomechanical abilities, course length, and obstacles such as course bends. The results of this thesis also showed that the computed optimal pacing strategies were more beneficial for performance than a constant power distribution. In conclusion, this thesis demonstrates the feasibility of using numerical simulation and optimization to optimize pacing strategies in cross-country skiing and road cycling. / Avhandlingen handlar om optimering av farthållningsstrategier inom längdskidåkning och landsvägscykling. Det finns ett utbrett stöd för att konstant fart och varierande effektfördelningar är optimala om endast mekaniska aspekter beaktas i dessa sporter. Ändå saknas teoretiska studier som undersöker optimal farthållning för verkliga idrottsutövare som är begränsade i sin förmåga att generera effekt genom kroppens bioenergetiska system. Målen med den här avhandlingen är att utveckla metoder för bioenergetik och optimering av farthållningsstrategier i uthållighetsidrott. Dessutom är målet att undersöka påverkan av backar, svängar, omgivande vind och bioenergetisk modellering på den optimala farthållningsstrategin samt att utreda potentialen till prestationsförbättring med optimala farthållningsstrategier. Avhandling presenterar matematiska modeller för optimering av farthållningsstrategier. Dessa modeller delas in i en mekanisk modell för förflyttning, en bioenergetisk modell och en optimeringsmodell. De mekaniska och bioenergetiska modellerna som presenteras i avhandlingen består av differentialekvation och optimeringsmodellen utgörs av en gradient-baserad algoritm. Den mekaniska modellen beskriver förhållandet mellan utövarens effekt och den resulterande rörelsen längs banan som ger tiden mellan start och mål. Den bioenergetiska modellen beskriver människokroppens olika energisystem och dess begränsningar att generera effekt. Den bioenergetiska modellen interagerar med optimeringsmodellen genom att utgöra dess begränsningar för vad den mänskliga kroppen klarar av. Sammanfattningsvis försöker optimeringsmodellen minimera tiden mellan start och mål i den mekaniska modellen genom att variera effekten längs banan. Samtidigt ser optimeringsmetoden till att denna effektfördelning inte kränker den bioenergetiska modellen. Studierna som ingår i avhandlingen resulterade i flera viktiga upptäckter om generella tillämpningar av farthållningsstrategier inom längdskidåkning och landsvägscykling. Det visade sig att konstant fart inte är optimalt om omgivande betingelser varierade längs banans sträckning. Däremot var varierande effektfördelning fördelaktig om den varierar parallellt med banlutning och omgivande vindpåverkan för att minska fartens variationer. Trots denna variation, visade resultaten att fartvariationerna inte eliminerades helt. Detta har att göra med utövarens fysiologiska begränsningar, vars påverkan är svår att förutspå utan genomgående modellering av bioenergetik relaterat till muskeltrötthet. Dessutom viii visade resultaten att olika bioenergetiska metoder gav upphov till betydande skillnader i de optimala farthållningsstrategierna. Resultaten i avhandlingen visade också att optimal effektfördelning vid kurvtagning i landsvägscykling innehåller tre eller fyra faser. The fyra faser som var utmärkande på relativt långa banor var en tröskelfas, en rullfas, en bromsfas och en maximal accelerationsfas. Resultaten visar också att positiv farthållning är optimal på relativt långa banor i landsvägscykling där tillgången på kolhydrater är begränsad. Samtidigt visade resultaten på optimala farthållningsstrategier ibland att inverkan av omgivande betingelser förbisågs till fördel för med inflytelserika betingelser som påverkar framdrivningen. Sammantaget visar resultaten i denna avhandling att utövare gagnas av att anpassa effekten med hänsyn till varierande terräng, omgivande vind, atletens egen fysiologiska och biomekaniska förmåga, banans längd och hinder såsom kurvor. Resultaten visar också att de optimala farthållningsstrategier med varierande effektfördelning som beräknats i denna avhandling förbättrar prestationen jämfört med konstanta effektfördelningar. Sammanfattningsvis visar denna avhandling på möjligheterna att använda numerisk simulering och optimering för att optimera farthållningsstrategier i längdskidåkning och landsvägscykling. / <p>Vid tidpunkten för disputationen var följande delarbeten opublicerade: delarbete 5 accepterat, delarbete 6 manuskript.</p><p>At the time of the doctoral defence the following papers were unpublished: paper 5 accepted, paper 6 manuscript.</p>

La détection d'objets mobiles dans des flux vidéo est une étape essentielle pour de nombreux algorithmes de vision par ordinateur. Cette tâche se complexifie lorsque la caméra utilisée est en mouvement. En effet, l'environnement capté par ce type de caméra apparaît en mouvement et il devient plus difficile de distinguer les objets qui effectuent réellement un mouvement de ceux qui constituent la partie statique de la scène. Dans cette thèse, nous apportons des contributions au problème de détection d'objets mobiles dans le flux vidéo d'une caméra mobile. L'idée principale qui nous permet de distinguer les éléments mobiles de ceux qui sont statiques repose sur un calcul de distance dans l'espace 3D. Les positions 3D de caractéristiques extraites des images sont estimées par triangulation puis leurs mouvements 3D sont analysés pour réaliser un étiquetage éparse statique/mobile de ces points. Afin de rendre la détection robuste au bruit, l'analyse des mouvements 3D des caractéristiques est comparée à d'autres points précédemment estimés statiques. Une mesure de confiance, mise à jour au cours du temps, est utilisée pour déterminer l'étiquette à attribuer à chacun des points. Nos contributions ont été appliquées à des jeux de données virtuelles (issus du projet Previz 2) et réelles (reconnus dans la communauté [Och+14]) et les comparaisons ont été réalisées avec l'état de l'art. Les résultats obtenus montrent que la contrainte 3D proposée dans cette thèse, couplée à une analyse statistique et temporelle des mouvements, permet de détecter des éléments mobiles dans le flux vidéo d'une caméra en mouvement et ce même dans des cas complexes où les mouvements apparents de la scène ne sont pas uniformes / Moving objects detection in video streams is a commonly used technique in many computer vision algorithms. The detection becomes more complex when the camera is moving. The environment observed by this type of camera appeared moving and it is more difficult to distinguish the objects which are in movement from the others that composed the static part of the scene. In this thesis we propose contributions for the detection of moving objects in the video stream of a moving camera. The main idea to differenciate between moving and static objects based on 3D distances. 3D positions of feature points extracted from images are estimated by triangulation and then their 3D motions are analyzed in order to provide a sparse static/moving labeling. To provide a more robust detection, the analysis of the 3D motions is compared to those of feature points previously estimated static. A confidance value updated over time is used to decide on labels to attribute to each point.We make experiments on virtual (from the Previz project 1) and real datasets (known by the community [Och+14]) and we compare the results with the state of the art. The results show that our 3D constraint coupled with a statistical and temporal analysis of motions allow to detect moving elements in the video stream of a moving camera even in complex cases where apparent motions of the scene are not similars

Este trabalho tem como objetivo principal a determinação da distância de estrelas pré-sequência principal em regiões de formação estelar próximas. A determinação precisa da distância individual das estrelas é necessária para obter os principais parâmetros físicos de cada estrela e para investigar a estrutura da Galáxia. Em particular, investigamos as regiões de formação estelar de Lupus e Ophiuchus que contém uma das associações mais ricas em estrelas T Tauri. A grande maioria das estrelas pré-sequência principal nessas regiões não foi observada pelo satélite Hipparcos devido à sua magnitude e também não têm paralaxe trigonométrica medida a partir do solo devido à distância em que se encontram. O procedimento aqui empregado para a obter a distância individual das estrelas baseia-se na estratégia de ponto de convergência e utiliza dados de movimento próprio e velocidade radial. Desenvolvemos uma nova versão do método de ponto de convergência que permite simultaneamente determinar a posição do ponto de convergência e selecionar os membros de um moving group. Partindo dos dados de movimento próprio e o novo método aqui desenvolvido investigamos as propriedades cinemáticas e realizamos uma análise de pertinência das estrelas em cada região estudada o que nos permitiu identificar um moving group com 114 estrelas em Lupus e 55 estrelas em Ophiuchus. Calculamos a distância para cada membro do grupo usando velocidades radiais publicadas, que foram complementadas com novas observações, e a velocidade espacial do moving grup para as estrelas com velocidade radial não conhecida. Calculamos as paralaxes com precisão de 1-2~mas o que implica em um erro relativo médio de 25% nas distâncias obtidas. Finalmente, investigamos as propriedades dos diversos subgrupos e a estrutura tridimensional dos complexos de nuvens em Lupus e Ophiuchus, concluindo que existem efeitos de profundidade importantes. Utilizamos os novos resultados de distância para obter os parâmetros físicos (luminosidade, massa e idade) das estrelas e o diagrama-HR de cada região de formação estelar considerada, confirmando a distribuição de idade diferente das duas subclasses de estrelas T Tauri. Os resultados aqui obtidos representam um primeiro passo no sentido de melhor entender a estrutura das regiões de formação estelar e os estágios iniciais da formação de estrelas e planetas. / The main objective of this work is to determine the distance of pre-main sequence stars in nearby star-forming regions. A precise determination of the distance to individual stars is required to accurately determine the main physical parameters of each star and the structure of the Galaxy. Here we investigate the Lupus and Ophiuchus star-forming regions that contain one of the richest associations of T Tauri stars. Most pre-main sequence stars in these regions were neither observed by the Hipparcos satellite due to their magnitude nor have any trigonometric parallax measured from the ground due to their distance. The procedure that we use here to derive the distance to individual stars is based on the convergent point strategy and makes full use of proper motion and radial velocity data. We developed a new version of the convergent point search method that simultaneously determines the convergent point position and selects the most likely members of a moving group. Based on proper motion data and our new method we investigate the kinematic properties and perform a membership analysis of the stars in each star-forming region considered that allows us to identify a moving group with 114 stars in Lupus and 55 stars in Ophiuchus. We calculate the distance of each group member using published radial velocities, which we supplemented with new measurements, and the spatial velocity of the moving group for the remaining stars with unknown radial velocity. We derived parallaxes with accuracies of 1-2 mas yielding the average relative error of 25% on the distances. Finally, we investigate the properties of the various subgroups and the three dimensional structure of the Lupus and Ophiuchus cloud complex and conclude that significant depth effects exist. We use the new distances to refine the physical parameters (luminosity, mass and age) of stars and the HR-diagram for each star-forming region considered confirming the different age distribution of the two T Tauri subclasses. These results represent a first step towards better understanding the structure of star-forming regions and the early stages of star and planet formation.

The purpose of this study was to explore the relationship between frequent childhood mobility and perceived social support, education level, and economic well-being in a sample of former Even Start parents. Theoretically the mechanisms for the disruption of frequent mobility are studied through both social capital theory and an ecological model. As individuals are uprooted and moved from one environment to the next they are faced with the developmental challenge of continuous adaptation. With each move losses of social capital at the individual, family, and community level are experienced. The most striking factor about the results of the qualitative analysis is the parallel it finds to previous quantitative studies on the outcomes and risk factors of frequent mobility. The participants who experienced frequent mobility in childhood described lives that were chaotic and uncertain. Frequent childhood mobility was directly mentioned by several of the participants as a factor increasing hardship in their lives, associated with participants' retrospective accounts of their poverty status in childhood and their economic status at the time of the interviews. A lack of significant parental social support in the group experiencing high childhood mobility, and its presence in the low childhood mobility group suggests the disruption frequent childhood mobility may cause in the ability of this group to obtain needed parental social support. In a population where risk factors are already present frequent childhood mobility seems to be a key factor in further reducing life chances. / Graduation date: 2004

In this study, primary steps of a visual surveillance system are presented: moving object detection and tracking of these moving objects. Background subtraction has been performed to detect the moving objects in the video, which has been taken from a static camera. Four methods, frame differencing, running (moving) average, eigenbackground subtraction and mixture of Gaussians, have been used in the background subtraction process. After background subtraction, using some additional operations, such as morphological operations and connected component analysis, the objects to be tracked have been acquired. While tracking the moving objects, active contour models (snakes) has been used as one of the approaches. In addition to this method / Kalman tracker and mean-shift tracker are other approaches which have been utilized. A new approach has been proposed for the problem of tracking multiple targets. We have implemented this method for single and multiple camera configurations. Multiple cameras have been used to augment the measurements. Homography matrix has been calculated to find the correspondence between cameras. Then, measurements and tracks have been associated by the new tracking method.

Video surveillance has long been in use to monitor security sensitive areas such as banks, department stores, crowded public places and borders. The rise in computer speed, availability of cheap large-capacity storage devices and high speed network infrastructure enabled the way for cheaper, multi sensor video surveillance systems. In this thesis, the problem of tracking multiple targets with multiple cameras has been discussed. Cameras have been located so that they have overlapping fields of vision. A dynamic background-modeling algorithm is described for segmenting moving objects from the background, which is capable of adapting to dynamic scene changes and periodic motion, such as illumination change and swaying of trees. After segmentation of foreground scene, the objects to be tracked have been acquired by morphological operations and connected component analysis. For the purpose of tracking the moving objects, an active contour model (snakes) is one of the approaches, in addition to a Kalman tracker. As the main tracking algorithm, a rule based tracker has been developed first for a single camera, and then extended to multiple cameras. Results of used and proposed methods are given in detail.

An organization must manage its resource consumption and material flows in order to satisfy the demand of its products as efficiently as possible. Managing of the aforementioned requires a balance between the organizations resources (such as the capability of distribution and production) and the market demand. According to Gardner (1990), an estimation of future demand is a necessity for maintaining the balance. An instrument that is used frequently to estimate future demand is demand forecasting. The demand forecasting practice has been thoroughly studied and a plethora of academic contributions exist on the topic. However, a best practice demand forecasting method does not exist for every kind of product. The purpose of this paper is to identify which time series forecasting method that will result in the lowest error rate on fast moving consumer goods. The methods are based on sales data of 18 articles from the company Coca-Cola Enterprises Sverige AB which predominantly sells soft drinks. The majority of the theoretical framework is time series models presented by the authors Stig-Arne Mattsson, Patrik Jonsson and Steven Nahmias. The paper identifies Exponential smoothing with individual input variables as the forecasting method with the lowest error rate. The method gave the lowest possible error rate on over 55 percent of the articles. In addition, the combined error rate of the articles using Exponential smoothing with individual input variables gave the lowest overall error.

As residential mobility recursively links individual life courses and the characteristics of places, it is unsurprising that geographers have long sought to understand how people make moving decisions. However, much of our knowledge of residential mobility processes derives from cross-sectional analyses of either mobility decision-making or moving events. Comparatively few studies have linked these separate literatures by analysing how residential (im)mobility decisions unfold over time within particular biographical, household and spatio-temporal contexts. This is problematic, as life course theories suggest that people frequently do not act in accordance with their underlying moving desires. To evaluate the extent to which residential (im)mobility is volitional or the product of constraints therefore requires a longitudinal approach linking moving desires to subsequent moving behaviour. This thesis develops this longitudinal perspective through four linked empirical studies, which each use British Household Panel Survey data to analyse how the life course context affects the expression and realisation of moving desires. The first study investigates how people make moving decisions in different ways in response to different motivations, triggers and life events. The second study harnesses the concept of ‘linked lives', exploring the extent to which the likelihood of realising a desire to move is dependent upon the desires of a person's partner. The third study analyses the biographical dimension of mobility decision-making, investigating how the long-term trajectories of life course careers are associated with particular mobility biographies. The final empirical chapter develops these insights, exploring the duration and abandonment of moving desires. Taken together, these studies test and extend conceptual models of mobility decision-making by empirically engaging with neglected facets of life course theories. Fundamentally, the thesis uncovers how aggregate mobility patterns are produced by the interactions between individual choices and multi-scalar constraints.