This thesis presents an empirical analysis of the unemployment hysteresis in the Czech Republic on quarterly data from 1999 to 2015. The hysteresis is modelled by allowing for: (i) impact of the cyclical unemployment on the NAIRU; (ii) impact of the long-term un- employment on the NAIRU. Models are written in state space form and estimated using Bayesian approach. The main contributions of this thesis are as follows. The results pro- vide robust evidence in favour of the hysteresis in the Czech Republic, but precise size of the hysteresis effect is surrounded by relatively large uncertainty. Posterior mean estimates of key parameters indicate that in response to increase in the cyclical unemployment of 1 percentage point, the NAIRU increases by 0.15 percentage points. The first specification of the hysteresis implies that the hysteresis induced changes in the Czech Republic's NAIRU of at most 1 percentage point. The hysteresis specified as impact of the long-term unemploy- ment on the NAIRU then implies even weaker effect, inducing changes in the NAIRU of at most 0.6 percentage points. The models are estimated jointly with the hybrid Phillips curve identified using survey forecasts as proxies for the expectations. Estimate of the expecta- tions' parameter 0.65 indicates the forward-looking nature of the Czech...

In the first essay, Persistence in Swedish Unemployment Rates, we study if there is no or weak tendency in unemployment rates to revert back to previous levels. Persistence is caused by: natural rate shocks, long unemployment cycles, and spill-over from cyclical to permanent unemployment. We find evidence of high persistence. The results suggest that the quick rise of unemployment rates during 1992-1994 was caused by large permanent and cyclical shocks in combination with spill-over effects. In the second essay, The Equilibrium Rate of Unemployment in a Small Open Economy, we challenge the common and simplifying assumption that the economy is closed. We set up and estimate a structural unobserved components open economy model for the unemployment rate and the real exchange rate. Our estimates indicate that the foreign sector is of substantial importance when explaining movements in the NAIRU. In the third essay, A Simultaneous Model of the Swedish Krona, the US Dollar and the Euro, we simultaneously estimate the real exchange rates between the Swedish Krona, the US Dollar and the Euro. The exchange rate movements are well explained by potential output, the output gap, terms of trade, the fraction of prime-aged people in the population, and structural government budget deficits. The models work well in an out of sample exercise. In the last essay, Wages, Employment, and Unemployment: The Effect of Benefits, Taxes and Labor Mobility, we study how wages and employment are affected by unemployment insurance and labor mobility. We show that the wage effect of higher unemployment benefits can be either positive or negative, depending on the specification of union utility function and the taxation scheme for financing the benefits. The common claim that wages are lower when a sector bears a higher fraction of unemployment costs does not hold in general. We also show that labor mobility across sectors and increased competition reduces wages and unemployment.

[pt] A taxa de juros real neutra é umbenchmarkfundamental para caracterizar a orientação da política monetária em determinado período do tempo. Ela varia de acordo com fatores estruturais e conjunturais da economia. O objetivo principal desta dissertação é, a partir de diferentes estimativas econometricas, determinar a evolucao da taxa de juros neutra da economia brasileira e tentar explicar quanto da queda recente se deve às mudanças estruturais, como o processo de estabilização, e quanto se deve a fatores conjunturais e temporários, como a recessão mundial e a flexibilização de política monetária no mundo. De posse dessas estimativas, é possível caracterizar a postura da autoridade monetária nos últimos anos e quão sustentável é adotar uma estratégia de queda de juros baseada na queda da taxa de juros neutra. Além disso, estimamos de diferentes maneiras a taxa de desemprego natural da economia e concluímos que o Brasil passou por mudanças estruturais que motivaram sua queda e a queda da taxa de juros neutra. / [en] The neutral real interest rate is used as a benchmark to characterize the stance of monetary policy in a given period of time. It varies according to structural and cyclical factors in the economy. The main objective of this MSc Thesis is to uncover the neutral interest rate of the Brazilian economy from different estimates and try to explain if the recent decline is due to structural changes, such as the stabilization process, or if it is due to cyclical and temporary factors, such as the global recession and the easy monetary policies around the world. Given this estimates, it is possible characterize the monetary policy stanceduring the last years and evaluate if the decrease in the basic rate (Selic), that started in September, 2011, is sustainable, i.e., ifit is based on the decrease of neutral interest rate. Furthermore, the natural rate of unemployment for the Brazilian economy is also estimated in different ways and it follows that Brazil went through structural changes that allowed the natural unemployment rate and neutral interest rate to fall.

Unemployment amongst Swedish citizens is higher within the group which falls under the designation foreign-born. The aim of this thesis is to examine which municipal factors that can explain the differences in unemployment amongst foreign-born relative to native born.The empirical models are examined with both cross-sectional data for the year of 2010 and panel data for the years of 2002-2012. The examination is implemented through a linear regression analysis of the type Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Fixed Effect regressions. A theory section will be presented where the theory on Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate (NAIRU), theories on discrimination and country-specific human capital are illustrated. The result from the cross-sectional data shows that the amount of foreign-born, the level of foreign-born immigrated from Nordic countries have a significant negative effect on unemployment amongst foreign-born. The general unemployment shows a significant positive effect on the unemployment amongst foreign-born. The result from the panel data however shows that the acceptance rate in Swedish for immigrants (SFI) and the highest level for tertiary education also have a significant negative effect on unemployment amongst foreign born. According to the theory of country-specific human capital, an increase in languageskills and education will increase the individual’s human capital and productivity, hencedecrease unemployment amongst foreign-born. This theory also indicates that an increase in the level of foreign-born immigrated from Nordic countries has a lower “cultural distance”,hence easier to integrate into the Swedish labor market. Previous research indicates that an increase of the amount of foreign-born can decrease the unemployment amongst this group through an expansion of social network and employer contacts. According to the theory of NAIRU, the level of equilibrium unemployment is affected by changes in the composition ofthe workforce, hence should affect the unemployment amongst foreign-born in the corresponding direction. This indicates that the integration policy is of importance to bring down the level of NAIRU. / Arbetslöshet är ett omtalat fenomen inom den svenska samhällsdebatten. Arbetslösheten bland Sveriges invånare är högre bland den grupp människor som faller under beteckningen utrikes födda. Syftet med denna uppsats är att undersöka vilka kommunala faktorer som kan förklara skillnaden i arbetslöshet mellan utrikes- och inrikes födda. De empiriska modellerna testas både med tvärsnittsdata för år 2010 samt paneldata för år 2002-2012. Undersökningen genomförs med en linjär regressionsanalys av typen Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) samt Fixed Effect regressioner. Datamaterialet är av sekundär data från Statistiska centralbyrån(SCB). Ett teoriavsnitt kommer att presenteras där teorin om Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) samt teorier om diskriminering och land-specifikt humankapital belyses. Resultatet av tvärsnittsdata visar att andelen utrikes födda, andelen invandrade från Norden har en signifikant negativ effekt på arbetslöshet bland utrikes födda samt att den allmänna arbetslösheten har en signifikant positiv effekt på arbetslöshet bland utrikes födda. Resultatet av paneldata visar att även andelen godkända i svenska för i invandrare samt högstaeftergymnasiala utbildningsnivå har en signifikant negativ effekt på arbetslöshet bland utrikesfödda. Enligt teorin om land-specifikt humankapital ökar språkkunskaper samt utbildning individens humankapital och således produktivitet vilket minskar arbetslösheten bland utrikesfödda. Denna teori belyser även att andelen invandrade från Norden har ett lägre ”kulturavstånd” och bör således ha lättare att integrera sig på den svenska marknaden. Detta medför att arbetslöshet bland utrikes födda reduceras. Tidigare forskning tyder på att ökad andel utrikes födda kan minska arbetslöshet bland denna grupp genom ökat socialt nätverkoch arbetsgivarkontakter. Enligt teorin om NAIRU, påverkas jämviktsarbetslösheten av förändringar i arbetskraftens sammansättningar vilket bör medföra en påverkan på arbetslöshet bland utrikes födda i motsvarande riktning. Detta indikerar att integrationspolitiken är av betydelse för att få ner nivån på NAIRU.

This dissertation describes the relationship between inflation and unemployment with the concept of the natural rate of unemployment at which inflation remains unchanged. By comparing NAIRU, as defined in this manner, with the actual unemployment rate, we obtain the gap in unemployment. In connection with the analysed substitution between inflation and unemployment, there can be found a decrease in the importance of the PC in the 1970s, a very popular New Keynesian PC in the 1990s, and doubts over the robustness of the estimates. On the other hand, the concept of the PC and the NAIRU had previously been developed in accordance with the real data. There is a broad consensus on the impact of monetary policy on nominal variables (inflation) and real variables (unemployment). Methods are also being combined and continuously improved This dissertation is seeking to prove or disprove the hypothesis of the NAIRU concept's usability in estimating the economic cycle on the labor market. This hypothesis has helped in the acceptance of: the support for the concept and estimating PC and NAIRU in the literature; the application of measures to refine the estimate of the NAIRU and PC in the empirical analysis of the dissertation; the dissertation conclusion's compliance with the latest international research, with the local authors and with the own research. The contribution of the dissertation can be identified thusly: distribution methods depend upon the different time periods, their treatment and the best methods for the conditions of the countries in the Visegrad Group; the specification of an unstable environment and its impact upon the estimation of the NAIRU and the economic cycle; the calculation of the unemployment rate of the sectors, age categories and their use in estimating the NAIRU and cycle on the meso-level; to determine the effect of different pricing structure indicators in order to estimate the NAIRU and the economic cycle on the labor market and the topicality of their estimates.

The NAIRU theory has become the mainstream theory in explaining unemployment in Europe and is often used to justify demands for a cutback of the welfare state, reducing unemployment benefits, reducing minimum wages, decentralizing collective bargaining etc. Close inspection reveals that it nonetheless shares some arguments with Post Keynesian and even Marxist theory. The paper proposes an underdetermined, encompassing NAIRU model, which is consistent with several theoretical tradtions. Depending on the closure with respect to demand formation and determination of the NAIRU itself, the model allows for New Keynesian, Post Keynesian and Marxist results. (author's abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

This dissertation thesis deals with relation between labour market and monetary policy referring to two fundamental theoretical concepts -- natural rate hypothesis (or NAIRU) and unemployment hysteresis hypothesis. The first chapter outlines the most frequent values of the Phillips curve, the fundamental model of macroeconomics theory in the relation between the labour market and the monetary policy. The following chapter deals with the exogenous NAIRU concept which works as natural unemployment rate approximation. The unemployment hysteresis deals with the NAIRU as endogenous variable which is dependent on preceding imbalanced situations on labour market. The thesis outlines the main causes of the hysteresis: capital scrapping effect, role of the long-term unemployment and the insider-outsider hypothesis. The third chapter also comprises simple econometric tests of both particular mechanisms and the hysteresis itself based on usual unit roots tests. The results show the hysteresis using data from both the Czech Republic and Central and Eastern Europe countries (CEEC). The fourth chapter deals with monetary-political implications of the unemployment hysteresis. The practical part of the thesis is based on two hypotheses of the relation between inflation (policy interest rate) and NAIRU. The last chapter based on the VAR model outlines short-term relations between the labour market and monetary policy variables. Long-term relations are tested by both the co-integration analysis and vector error correction model (VECM). These models are examined on the data from the Czech Republic and Poland (2000-2013). The thesis also applies pooled regression estimate for ten CEEC. The results show that the monetary policy does have impact on the labour market not only in the short-term but also in the long-term period and thus they confirm the hysteresis hypothesis

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