Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Nebraska-Lincoln, 2009. / Title from title screen (site viewed June 22, 2010). PDF text: x, 251 p. : ill. (chiefly col.), maps ; 16 Mb. UMI publication number: AAT 3366033. Includes bibliographical references. Also available in microfilm and microfiche formats.

SANTOS, Cristiano da Silva. Ensaios em econometria de séries temporais: núcleo e previsão da inflação no Brasil. Tese (Doutorado) - Universidade Federal do Ceará, Programa de Pós Graduação em Economia, CAEN, Fortaleza, 2017. 96f. / Submitted by Mônica Correia Aquino (monicacorreiaaquino@gmail.com) on 2017-06-02T19:12:48Z No. of bitstreams: 1 2017_tese_cssantos.pdf: 2208108 bytes, checksum: 9169861d6fe6f46319946a80ea7e54ba (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Mônica Correia Aquino (monicacorreiaaquino@gmail.com) on 2017-06-02T19:13:17Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 2017_tese_cssantos.pdf: 2208108 bytes, checksum: 9169861d6fe6f46319946a80ea7e54ba (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-06-02T19:13:17Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 2017_tese_cssantos.pdf: 2208108 bytes, checksum: 9169861d6fe6f46319946a80ea7e54ba (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017 / The objective of this thesis is to study the issues related to the core and the forecast of inflation in the Brazilian economy after the real plan by means of three independent tests that has as intersection the use of time series econometrics. In the first essay we compare the inflation forecasts obtained with common factors estimated from a large data set, with the predictions provided by the Central Bank of Brazil's Focus survey and by the integrated autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) and autoregressive vector (VAR ). The results show that the predictions of the Focus survey are the ones with the lowest mean square error between the models compared and that the gains of using large amounts of data to predict inflation are limited. The second essay investigates whether the core of inflation capturing the permanent price changes has any relation to the long-run inflation trajectory. For this, two core measurements are constructed with unobserved (UC) component models estimated by maximum likelihood and Kalman filter. The results show that the core measure constructed with a multivariate UC model is the only one among the measured measures that is unvented and a prior indicator of inflation, with the lowest error out-of-sample forecast. The third essay also proposes a new core measure of inflation following the notes of the second essay and advancing considering the possible non linearity and non-stationary inflation in Brazil. In order to estimate the new core, the empirical decomposition method (EMD) is used that does not use the assumptions of the series to be stationary or linear. The results indicate that the new core measure obtained has a better performance to predict out-of-sample inflation among the measures evaluated and has the statistical properties of being cointegrated, unbiased, attractive and strongly exogenous in relation to inflation, characteristics that are useful For monetary policy purposes. / O objetivo desta tese é estudar as questões relacionadas ao núcleo e à previsão da inflação na economia brasileira após o plano real por meio de três ensaios independentes com o uso da econometria de séries temporais. O primeiro ensaio investiga se o uso da grande quantidade de séries macroeconômicas disponíveis contribui para melhorar a previsão da inflação. Para isso, se compara as previsões da inflação obtidas com fatores comuns estimados de um grande conjunto de dados, com as previsões fornecidas pela pesquisa Focus do Banco Central do Brasil e por modelos autorregressivo integrado de média móvel (ARIMA) e vetor autorregressivo (VAR). Os resultados mostram que as previsões da pesquisa Focus são as que apresentam menor erro quadrático médio entre os modelos comparados e que os ganhos de se utilizar grande quantidade de dados para prever a inflação são limitados. O segundo ensaio investiga se o núcleo da inflação que captura as mudanças de preços que são permanentes possui alguma relação com a trajetória de longo prazo da inflação. Para capturar o componente permanente, duas medidas de núcleo são construídas com modelos de componentes não observados (UC) estimados por máxima verossimilhança e filtro de Kalman. Os resultados mostram que a medida de núcleo construída com um modelo UC multivariado é a única entre as medidas avaliadas que é não viesada e um indicador antecedente da inflação, possuindo o menor erro previsão fora da amostra. O terceiro ensaio também propõe uma nova medida de núcleo da inflação seguindo os apontamentos do segundo ensaio e avançando ao considerar a possível não linearidade e não estacionariedade da inflação no Brasil. Para estimar o novo núcleo é usado o método de decomposição em modos empíricos (EMD) que não utiliza os pressupostos da série ser estacionária ou linear. Os resultados apontam que a nova medida de núcleo obtida tem um melhor desempenho para prever a inflação fora da amostra entre as medidas avaliadas e possui as propriedades estatísticas de ser cointegrada, não enviesada, atratora e fortemente exógena em relação à inflação, características que são úteis para os objetivos da política monetária.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-12T18:36:32Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 arquivo8081_1.pdf: 359095 bytes, checksum: 0a4c80cf61817fda5840425b7ee5895b (MD5) license.txt: 1748 bytes, checksum: 8a4605be74aa9ea9d79846c1fba20a33 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2002 / Propusemo-nos fazer, nesta dissertação, uma análise das convergências e interseções das obras teatrais A Casa de Bernarda Alba, de Federico García Lorca, e Os Sete Gatinhos, de Nelson Rodrigues, sob a perspectiva do Amor, da Liberdade e da Morte. Estudamos a interação dos temas entre si e sua relação com as obras citadas, e analisamos as coincidências na estruturação das tramas e na composição das personagens levando em consideração os princípios de autoridade e liberdade, por onde os caminhos da manifestação da sexualidade/desejo são conduzidos

The research problem in this study was to look at barriers confronting small and micro tourism enterprises of the previously disadvantaged entrepreneurs in the Nelson Mandela Metropole. To achieve this objective, literature on the barriers confronting these enterprises, was reviewed. The empirical results obtained indicate a strong concurrence with the literature study emphasizing the importance of the barriers identified and the possible ways of resolving them. The main problems identified in the literature review were: lack of institutional support, legislation, lack of access to finance, and lack of entrepreneurial skill (planning and organizing, marketing, training and human resources, time management, conflict resolution and negotiation skill). These barriers identified in the literature study were then used to develop a questionnaire to test the extent to which small and micro tourism enterprises are constrained by barriers when starting up and how these barriers can be resolved. A sample of 18 small and micro tourism businesses was taken, one from Uitenhage and 17 from Port Elizabeth. The main results were that there are few small and micro tourism businesses of the previously disadvantaged entrepreneurs in the Nelson Mandela Metropole. The main reason for this is that previously disadvantaged entrepreneurs are not given adequate support by government institutions created for that purpose. iv Most of these businesses are not getting enough financial support during start-up because of problems with the owners’ credit records. The results also indicate that small and micro tourism businesses of the previously disadvantaged entrepreneurs view legislation intended to develop them, as actually stifling their development, such as the municipal credit laws. The study recommends that more institutional support should be given to small and micro tourism businesses that are starting up, and government institutions responsible for the development of small and micro businesses need to target the previously disadvantaged communities with their marketing. The Nelson Mandela Metropolitan Municipality and the Small Enterprise Development Agency (SEDA) need to conduct research on alternative non-collateral financing for small and micro businesses. More training programmes on business skills have also to be conducted.

As one of the most impoverished provinces in South Africa with a high unemployment rate the Eastern Cape (Stats SA, 2011) was more suited for a study of this nature. In executing the research aims and objectives the study will be limited to focus specifically on one of the provinces cities, the Nelson Mandela Bay. The investigation will be focused on women street vendors mainly trading with fruits and vegetables, as well as other perishables. This industry was chosen because according to the Labour Force Survey (2000), there was an estimated 500,000 street traders operating in South Africa and more than 70 percent of them were found to be dealing in the trade of food items (Motala, 2002). The focus on women was driven by mainly by the fact that they constitute a majority of the street traders that are involed in the sale perishables/food items (Skinner, 2008).

The harsh realities currently facing public hospitals such as budget cuts, understaffing and poor working conditions, have resulted in nurses experiencing low morale and finding it increasingly difficult to stay in the public health sector. The obvious targeting of South African nurses by recruitment agencies with job offers to work overseas is causing a massive skills’ drain that the country cannot afford. The situation is further compounded by the fact that the government is freezing posts of those nurses who have resigned. Consequently, nurses who are currently working in these hospitals have to cope with unreasonable workloads. Public hospitals are nowadays faced with the challenge of delivering quality health care within the constraints of gross staff shortages, and an increasingly competitive global health environment. The main objective of this study was to identify strategies that can be implemented by hospitals in order to reduce turnover, thereby enhancing retention of staff. Interviews were conducted with the matrons-in-charge of the hospitals under study to investigate strategies that are in place to improve retention. Secondary data regarding staff turnover in the hospitals under study was collected and analysed. It emerged that there are no concrete strategies in place to lower turnover. Hospitals are indeed experiencing staff turnover and posts that were vacated by those nurses that have resigned are frozen. The literature survey revealed three strategies that can be utilised to retain employees, namely, motivation strategies, effective leadership strategies and human resources strategies. Based on various literature reviews, it was concluded that the three strategies are interrelated. The empirical survey was conducted at the three selected hospitals, to determine the extent to which the retention strategies identified in the literature survey are being utilised. All three are invariably used in the hospitals. It is evident that the leadership behaviour in these hospitals affects the level of motivation of employees. The extent to which some of the human resources strategies are utilised invariably leads to low morale and dissatisfaction among employees. Lastly, research findings were assessed with the aim of drawing conclusions so that appropriate recommendations could be made. Recommendations focused on the retention strategies that can be implemented to boost morale of employees and enhance retention.

La thèse étudie des problèmes de vérification de modèles infini, en appliquant des techniques de combinaisons de solveurs de contraintes.

Since arbitrage-free is a desirable theoretical feature in a healthy financial market, many efforts have been made to construct arbitrage-free models for yield curves. However, little attention is paid to review if such restriction will improve yield forecast. We evaluate the importance of arbitrage-free restriction on dynamic Nelson-Siegel term structure when forecasting yield curves. We find that it doesn’t help. We also compare these two Nelson-Siegel dynamic models with a benchmark dynamic model and show that Nelson-Siegel structure improve forecasts for long-maturity yields. / text

An epistemological dichotomy involving two kinds of knowledge has evolved historically since the time of the Greeks. This has led to the isolating from one another of the functions of understanding and evaluation, and to the belief that understanding is necessary to science, whereas appreciation is the aim of art. / The arts, consequently, are either considered unteachable, or have focused on methods for teaching feeling and appreciation. / This thesis proposes an alternative philosophical approach, one which recognizes that the distinction between mediate and immediate experience may be illusory, that the emotions, rather than being dialectically opposed to cognition may be instruments of it, and that appreciation may be as secondary to understanding in the arts as in the sciences. It proposes that the above approach, forwarded by American philosopher Nelson Goodman, offers a new and fresh epistemological framework upon which positive advances in the education of the arts will flourish. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

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