Coastal flood impacts are increasing in severity with the rising sea levels, causing damage to ecological and human systems. Climate-hazards may also result in cascading impacts, where an initial disaster sets off a chain of events that extends beyond the initial spatiotemporal point of impact. Coastal flood events may result in consecutive disasters in which the initial flood event results in a secondary technological disaster, prompting disruptions to socio-economic systems and resulting in a public health crisis. Flood events that trigger technological emergencies through the inundation and dispersion of hazardous materials are known as Natech disasters. However, current research on the cascading impacts of Natech events is limited. Hampton Roads, Virginia, is experiencing an accelerated rate of sea level rise and a proportionally higher risk of storm surge, potentially leading to a greater risk of Natech disasters. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of Natech events on surrounding communities in Hampton Roads. This study uses geospatial analysis to identify the current (2021) and future (2051) threats of flood-induced Natech disaster and assess its exposure to different coastal populations and ecosystems. The present study calculated the Flood Hazard Density Index (FHDI), using a 1-mile radius around the significantly flooded facilities to determine the spatial dispersion of Natech disasters. The flood risks were determined using the 100-year flood plain and intermediate (RCP 4.5) climate scenario. The risk of a Natech disaster was identified by combining the spatial extent of flood risk with the location of Toxics Release Inventory (TRI) facilities and National Priorities List (NPL) designated Superfund sites. The exposed environmental and social systems to Natech events were chosen through the literature gap analysis. Sociodemographic data from the American Community Survey were collected to examine its correlation with 2021 and 2051 FHDI-affected block groups. Findings reveal that block groups with higher proportions of minorities, people in poverty, and people without a vehicle experience significant exposure to a Natech disaster compared to those who are living further away from the TRI and Superfund facilities. Additionally, open water and wetland environments will also experience significant exposure to Natech events, which could indicate a loss of ecosystem services. This study suggests a need for proactive policy and programmatic interventions to minimize the potential impacts of Natech events on the surrounding communities, such as the remediation of Superfund sites and the development of hazard mitigation plans for TRI facilities. / Master of Science / Coastal flood impacts are increasing in severity with the rising sea levels, causing damage to ecological and human systems. Climate-hazards may also result in cascading impacts, where an initial disaster sets off a chain of events that extends beyond the initial spatial origin of impact, prolonging the effects of the initial disaster. Coastal flood events may result in consecutive disasters, where an initial flood event results in a secondary technological disaster, prompting disruptions to socio-economic systems and resulting in a public health crisis. Flood events that trigger technological emergencies causing the inundation and dispersion of hazardous materials are known as Natech disasters. However, current research on the cascading impacts of Natech events is limited. Hampton Roads, Virginia, is experiencing accelerated sea level rise and a proportionally higher risk of storm surge, potentially leading to a greater risk of Natech disasters. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of Natech events on surrounding communities in Hampton Roads. This study uses geospatial analysis to identify the current (2021) and future (2051) threats of flood-induced Natech disaster and assess its exposure to different coastal populations and ecosystems. The present study used a 1-mile radius around the significantly flooded facilities to determine the spatial dispersion of Natech diasters. The flood risks were determined using the 1 in 100 annual flood risk and an intermediate climate projection. The risk of a Natech disaster was identified by combining the spatial extent of flood risk with the location of U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) regulated Toxics Release Inventory (TRI) facilities and National Priorities List (NPL) designated Superfund sites. The most susceptible social, economic, and environmental subsystems to Natech events were identified using a literature gap analysis. Sociodemographic data were collected from the American Community Survey to examine its relationship to the 2021 and 2051 Natech affected census block groups. Findings reveal that block groups with higher proportions of minorities, people in poverty, and people without a vehicle experience significant exposure to a Natech disaster compared to those who are living further away from the TRI and Superfund facilities. Additionally, open water and wetland environments will also experience significant exposure to Natech events, which may indicate a loss of ecosystem services. This study suggests a need for proactive policy and programmatic interventions to minimize the potential impacts of Natech events on the surrounding communities, such as the remediation of Superfund sites and the development of hazard mitigation plans for TRI facilities.

Submitted by Irene Nascimento (irene.kessia@ufpe.br) on 2016-07-15T16:34:56Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: 66e71c371cc565284e70f40736c94386 (MD5) Dissertação.pdf: 1712072 bytes, checksum: 3d39945997a8f7b46f9a4c77600b922a (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-07-15T16:34:56Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: 66e71c371cc565284e70f40736c94386 (MD5) Dissertação.pdf: 1712072 bytes, checksum: 3d39945997a8f7b46f9a4c77600b922a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-03-11 / FACEPE / Os grandes impactos causados pela ocorrência dos eventos naturais em plantas industriais em todo o mundo tem feito com que este campo de estudo ganhe destaque nos últimos anos dado as perdas financeiras, humanas e ambientais que este tipo de evento pode acarretar. Os eventos provenientes de desastres naturais que proporcionam desastres tecnológicos são conhecidos como desastres/eventos Natech. Os eventos Natech apesar da baixa probabilidade de ocorrência apresentam grandes impactos e um nível de complexidade superior ao encontrado no gerenciamento de desastres naturais ou tecnológicos. Devido à necessidade de gerir vários tipos de riscos e dada a natureza finita dos recursos é necessário priorizar os riscos mais elevados e para auxiliar nessa análise dos riscos, é fundamental a utilização de ferramentas e metodologias que proporcionarão uma melhor compreensão dos desastres/eventos Natech. Neste sentido, é realizada uma revisão sistemática da literatura (Systematic Literature Review – SLR) sobre eventos Natech, levando em conta especificamente, trabalhos publicados em periódicos científicos. Vários tipos de classificações dos dados analisados são apresentados neste trabalho com o intuito de prover informação mais detalhada acerca de aspectos considerados no estudo. Esta pesquisa identificou a frequência de publicações dos eventos Natech, as revistas científicas e instituições que mais contribuíram sobre tema e os tipos de desastres naturais e setores da indústria mais abordados nos trabalhos avaliados, como também os tipos de ferramentas e metodologias utilizadas no gerenciamento destes riscos provendo informações relevantes para análises futuras e contribuindo para elucidação acerca do tema para a sociedade. / The great impacts caused by the occurrence of natural events in industrial plants around the world have made this field of study to gain prominence in recent years given the financial, human and environmental losses that this type of event can bring. The events arising from natural disasters that provide technological disasters are known as Natech disaster/events. The Natech events in spite of low probability of occurrence have large impacts and a higher level of complexity to that found in the management of natural and technological disasters. Due to the need to manage several types of risk and given the finite nature of resources is necessary to prioritize the higher risks and to assist in the analysis of the risks, it is essential to use tools and methodologies that will provide a better understanding of Natech disasters/events. In this sense, a Systematic Literature Review (SLR) is performed on Natech events, taking into account specifically, papers published in scientific journals. Several types of classifications of the analyzed data is presented this work in order to provide more detailed information about aspects considered in the study. This research has identified the frequency of publications of Natech events, scientific magazines and institutions that contributed to the theme and the types of natural disasters and industry sectors most discussed in this work, as well as the types of tools and methodologies used in the management of these risk giving relevant information for further analysis and contributing to elucidate the subject for society.

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第22056号 / 工博第4637号 / 新制||工||1723(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院工学研究科都市社会工学専攻 / (主査)教授 CRUZ Ana Maria , 教授 山田 忠史, 准教授 松島 格也 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第23170号 / 工博第4814号 / 新制||工||1752(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院工学研究科都市社会工学専攻 / (主査)教授 CRUZ Ana Maria , 教授 宇野 伸宏, 准教授 横松 宗太 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第22758号 / 工博第4757号 / 新制||工||1744(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院工学研究科都市社会工学専攻 / (主査)教授 CRUZ Ana Maria , 教授 堀 智晴, 准教授 横松 宗太 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM

Winter Storm Uri damaged parts of the United States, Mexico, and Canada in February of 2021. The State of Texas was heavily affected due to the institutional failure of Texas's primary power provider, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT). Despite similar previous storms that exposed weaknesses in the state's power grid system in 1999 and 2011, ERCOT did not make the necessary changes to prevent a future disaster. The purpose of this study is to advance the understanding of the concept of recreancy through the exploration of eight different dimensions of the concept: trust or distrust in institutions; institutional responsibility for disaster preparedness; responsibility for impacts of a disaster; effectiveness or ineffectiveness of institutions in responding to a disaster; an institution's capability of preventing a similar event in the future; an institution's willingness to make changes in their actions or behavior; confidence that an institution will prevent a similar event in the future; and responsibility for compensation for impacts of a disaster. To examine the composition of the concept of recreancy, I analyzed survey data collected in Texas during April and May of 2022. I aggregated and coded survey data according to the level respondents reported to agree with the survey indicators measuring dimensions of recreancy. I utilized Confirmatory Factor Analysis to analyze if the derived dimensions of recreancy measure recreancy, and if some are more salient than others. Confirmatory Factor Analysis revealed variability in the importance of different dimensions of recreancy, suggesting that some dimensions are more salient than others in shaping residents' perceptions of recreancy in the context of Winter Storm Uri. Further analysis revealed a preliminary model to operationalize recreancy, however further analysis is needed. / Master of Science / In February 2021, Winter Storm Uri devasted regions of the United States, Mexico, and Canada. The state of Texas experienced significant storm impacts due to the failure of its primary power provider, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT). ERCOT is responsible for overseeing and managing the state's power grid. Similar storms in 1999 and 2011 revealed weaknesses in the power grid's infrastructure—state officials mandated but did not require weatherization precautions to prevent future grid failures. ERCOT did not implement the suggested changes and the power grid failure during Winter Storm Uri left millions of Texas residents without access to power, heat, water, and other necessary services. This thesis explores residents' perceptions of ERCOT's institutional failure—recreancy—and aims to understand the concept of recreancy through the examination of eight dimensions: trust or distrust in institutions; institutional responsibility for disaster preparedness; responsibility for impacts of a disaster; effectiveness or ineffectiveness of institutions in responding to a disaster; an institution's capability of preventing a similar event in the future; an institution's willingness to make changes in their actions or behavior; confidence that an institution will prevent a similar event in the future; and responsibility for compensation for impacts of a disaster. I analyzed survey respondents' levels of agreement with each dimension and utilized Confirmatory Factor Analysis to assess the relative importance of the dimensions and if they accurately capture recreancy.

Un évènement Natech est un accident TECHnologique provoqué par l’impact d’un aléa NAturel sur une installation industrielle. Cet accident peut porter atteinte à l’extérieur de l’emprise du site, aux personnes, aux biens ou à l’environnement. L’objectif de ce travail est de mettre au point une méthodologie pour l’analyse et la prévention du risque d’accidents technologiques induits par l’inondation (Natech inondation) d’un site industriel. La méthodologie repose, dans un premier temps, sur une étude des Retours d’Expériences. Il a été identifié que les accidents Natech sont imputables à un rejet de matières dangereuses sur des équipements dits critiques endommagés directement ou indirectement par les eaux d’inondation. Les rejets de matières dangereuses vont amener à trois types d’accidents (incendie, pollution, explosion). Dans un deuxième temps, la méthode MADS-MOSAR a été adaptée à l’application aux accidents Natech inondation. L’analyse a abouti à cinq scénarios génériques d’accident Natech inondation sous forme de cinq nœuds papillons. Une soixantaine de Mesures de Maîtrise de Risque de prévention et de protection ont été identifiées. La validation de la complétude et de la plausibilité des nœuds papillons génériques est effectuée, d’une part, à l’échelle du secteur d’activité de traitement de surface et, d’autre part, à l’échelle spécifique d’établissements industriels. Ce travail a abouti à un outil de diagnostic de la vulnérabilité d’une installation industrielle aux accidents Natech inondation, accompagné d’un catalogue de MMR. Enfin, ce diagnostic a été appliqué sur un site industriel afin d’évaluer son mode opératoire et de l’enrichir par l’expérimentation. / A Natech accident is the impact of a NAtural event on an industrial plant (such as an ICPE- Classified Installation for the Environmental Protection). The impact can trigger a TECHnological accident, damaging the vicinity of the industrial facility (inhabitants, their properties and the environment). The final objective of this work is to develop a risk analysis methodology for the prevention of technological accidents triggered by flooding of industrial facilities. Therefore, the work begins with an analysis of past technological accidents triggered by floods. Thus, it was identified that Natech accidents are the consequences of hazardous materials releases from critical equipment, which in turn are damaged directly and indirectly by flood waters. Depending on the type of hazardous substances released, three categories of technological accidents are observed (fire, pollution and explosion). Afterwards, a risk analysis methodology was developed. It is mainly based on the MADS-MOSAR method, which was modified in order to be adapted to the Natech issue. The analysis resulted in the identification of five generic scenarios of technological accidents triggered by floods that can occur within an industrial installation. These scenarios were represented using the bow-tie tool. Then, around sixty preventive and protective measures were identified. The validation of the elaborated scenarios was done, on one hand, in the surface treatment industrial sector and, on the other hand, in two specific industrial facilities. The validation phase helped to test the completeness and plausibility of the generic scenarios, as well as the relevance of the measures previously identified. Furthermore, the validated scenarios were used to develop a checklist helping operators to decrease the vulnerability of their industrial facilities to technological accidents triggered by floods, along with a catalog of preventive and protective measures. Finally, the tool was applied to an industrial installation in order to enhance it and test its relevance by operators.

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第24099号 / 工博第5021号 / 新制||工||1784(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院工学研究科都市社会工学専攻 / (主査)教授 CRUZ Ana Maria , 教授 須崎 純一, 准教授 松島 格也 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM

Un évènement Natech est un accident TECHnologique provoqué par l'impact d'un aléa NAturel sur une installation industrielle. Cet accident peut porter atteinte à l'extérieur de l'emprise du site, aux personnes, aux biens ou à l'environnement. L'objectif de ce travail est de mettre au point une méthodologie pour l'analyse et la prévention du risque d'accidents technologiques induits par l'inondation (Natech inondation) d'un site industriel. La méthodologie repose, dans un premier temps, sur une étude des Retours d'Expériences. Il a été identifié que les accidents Natech sont imputables à un rejet de matières dangereuses sur des équipements dits critiques endommagés directement ou indirectement par les eaux d'inondation. Les rejets de matières dangereuses vont amener à trois types d'accidents (incendie, pollution, explosion). Dans un deuxième temps, la méthode MADS-MOSAR a été adaptée à l'application aux accidents Natech inondation. L'analyse a abouti à cinq scénarios génériques d'accident Natech inondation sous forme de cinq nœuds papillons. Une soixantaine de Mesures de Maîtrise de Risque de prévention et de protection ont été identifiées. La validation de la complétude et de la plausibilité des nœuds papillons génériques est effectuée, d'une part, à l'échelle du secteur d'activité de traitement de surface et, d'autre part, à l'échelle spécifique d'établissements industriels. Ce travail a abouti à un outil de diagnostic de la vulnérabilité d'une installation industrielle aux accidents Natech inondation, accompagné d'un catalogue de MMR. Enfin, ce diagnostic a été appliqué sur un site industriel afin d'évaluer son mode opératoire et de l'enrichir par l'expérimentation.