Annually, tropical cyclones do tremendous damage and are agents of long-term coastal change. To test this idea of different tropical cyclones delivering consistent coastal change, a landform with such evolution is needed. One such landform is a spit. What contributions do tropical cyclones give toward the evolution of a spit, and do tropical cyclones give the same kinds of impacts? To determine if tropical cyclones have similar impacts, shoreline and volumetric change from four storms impacting Bolivar Peninsula are considered. Being a southwest-trended spit at a length of 33.5 kilometers, storm impacts are measured in the form of one dimensional shoreline and two dimensional volumetric change. These impacts are abstracted into shoreline change and volumetric change patterns. These patterns are identified and compared for differences between each storm and similarity among all storms. Results indicate that shoreline accretionary zones vary alongshore. Results from Hurricane Ike indicate an accretionary zone ten kilometers from the distal end. Shoreline change patterns for Hurricane Rita show an unstable accretionary zone at four kilometers from the distal end. Results for Tropical Storm Fay indicate an unstable accretionary zone that begins at the distal end and continues to the middle of the spit. In terms of similarity for shoreline change, all patterns from storms demonstrated erosion near Rollover Fish Pass. One dimensional volumetric change patterns were entirely erosive for Hurricanes Rita and Ike, and Tropical Storm Fay had by small zones of accretion near the distal portion of the spit. Tropical Storm Josephine demonstrated an accretion zone between the middle and distal portion of the spit. Results from two dimensional volumetric change patterns suggest a threshold for inland penetration. Tropical Storm Fay showed a ten to twenty meter wide pattern of erosion around five kilometers from the distal end and near the proximal end of the spit, and Hurricane Rita demonstrated a twenty meter wide pattern of erosion near the distal end. Hurricane Ike had erosive penetration of up to 200 meters around fifteen kilometers from the distal end. Results suggest that certain storms reinforce the standard spit growth model, and others work against it.

Bridge scour is the leading cause of bridge damage nationwide. Successfully mitigating bridge scour problems depends on our ability to reliably estimate scour potential, design safe and economical foundation elements that account for scour potential, identify vulnerabilities related to extreme events, and recognize changes to the environmental setting that increase risk at existing bridges. This study leverages available information, gathered from several statewide resources, and adds watershed metrics to create a comprehensive, georeferenced dataset to identify parameters that correlate to bridges damaged in an extreme flood event. Understanding the underlying relationships between existing bridge condition, fluvial stresses, and geomorphological changes is key to identifying vulnerabilities in both existing and future bridge infrastructure. In creating this comprehensive database of bridge inspection records and associated damage characterization, features were identified that correlate to and discriminate between levels of bridge damage. Stream geomorphic assessment features were spatially joined to every bridge, marking the first time that geomorphic assessments have been broadly used for estimating bridge vulnerability. Stream power assessments and watershed delineations for every bridge and stream reach were generated to supplement the comprehensive database. Individual features were tested for their significance to discriminate bridge damage, and then used to create empirical fragility curves and probabilistic predictions maps to aid in future bridge vulnerability detection. Damage to over 300 Vermont bridges from a single extreme flood event, the August 28, 2011 Tropical Storm Irene, was used as the basis for this study. Damage to historic bridges was also summarized and tabulated. In some areas of Vermont, the storm rainfall recurrence interval exceeded 500 years, causing widespread flooding and damaging over 300 bridges. With a dataset of over 330 features for more than 2,000 observations to bridges that were damaged as well as not damaged in the storm, an advanced evolutionary algorithm performed multivariate feature selection to overcome the shortfalls of traditional logistic regression analysis. The analysis identified distinct combinations of variables that correlate to the observed bridge damage under extreme food events.

This thesis contains an observational analysis of the genesis of Tropical Storm Allison (2001). Using a paradigm of tropical cyclone formation as the superposition of potential vorticity (PV) anomalies, the importance of different scales of PV merger to various aspects of Allison’s formation is discussed. While only the case of Allison is discussed in great detail, other studies have also documented PV superposition on various scales, and superposition could be important for most tropical cyclones. Preceding Allison’s genesis, PV superposition on the large scale destabilized the atmosphere and increased low-level cyclonic vorticity. This presented a more favorable environment for the formation of MCV-type PV anomalies and smaller, surface-based, meso-β-scale vortices. Although these vortices eventually merged to form a more concentrated vortex with stronger surface pressure gradients, the merger happened well after landfall of Allison and no strengthening ensued. The unstable, vorticity-rich environment was also favorable for the development of even smaller, meso-γ-scale vortices that accompanied deep convective cells within one of Allison’s meso-β-scale vortices. The observations herein suggest that the meso-γ- scale convective cells and vortices are the respective source of PV production and building blocks for the meso-β-scale vortices. Finally, this thesis discusses issues related to the multiple vortex nature of tropical cyclone formation. For instance, the tracking of developing tropical cyclones is greatly complicated by the presence of multiple vortices. For these cases, the paradigm of a single cyclone center is inappropriate and alternative tracking methods are introduced.

Media use of hurricane graphics to apprise populations vulnerable to severe weather provides a persuasive demonstration of the importance and complexity of visual communication. Surprisingly little research, however, has explored how audiences interpret weather graphics. This study examined whether the general public and the National Weather Service share a common understanding of selected weather related terms and meaning of a NWS informational graphic. Using a coorientation model, general public responses to a questionnaire were compared to definitions prescribed by the NWS. Additionally, the public were asked questions to measure trust of the NWS as a credible and reliable source of severe weather information. Selected broadcast meteorologists were surveyed to measure their opinions of the NWS as well as to measure their perceptions of how the general public would respond to questions relating to knowledge of weather terms and graphics. Results revealed discrepancies between the intent of such graphics and audience interpretations. While the vast majority of respondents recognized the Tropical Cyclone Track Watch/Warning Graphic and understood much of the information it conveyed, study respondents did not seem to remember or understand the meaning of the terms Watch and Warning. While these terms or conditions are only one aspect of the graphic they represent critical information for populations at risk. Additionally, the results of this study indicate that weather forecasting professionals' perceptions of the public's understanding of the graphic are inaccurate. Results also show respondents generally rate the NWS as a reliable and competent agency but they do not consistently rate their local weather providers as well. Weather scientists' foremost concern may be the accuracy of their forecasts, but they also must consider the accuracy of the perceptions of those forecasts if they are to be effective in warning populations at risk of severe weather. These results have sobering implications for both governmental and private sources of emergency communication.

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第23170号 / 工博第4814号 / 新制||工||1752(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院工学研究科都市社会工学専攻 / (主査)教授 CRUZ Ana Maria , 教授 宇野 伸宏, 准教授 横松 宗太 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM

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Coral nurseries have become a popular and successful method to produce coral fragments for reef-restocking and restoration projects worldwide. Numerous in-situ coral nurseries have been established and many studies have focused on the most effective way to produce coral fragments in offshore nurseries. In contrast, production of coral fragments in land-based nurseries is rarely studied despite a growing knowledge of coral husbandry and coral aquaculture. Little data exist on the success of tank-raised corals when transplanted back into reef environments. This thesis presents the results of a study designed to assess the use of land-based coral nurseries in production of fragments of the Atlantic staghorn coral Acropora cervicornis for the purposes of reef re-stocking and restoration. The first objective of the study was to assess if A. cervicornis fragments can be produced in aquarium conditions at comparable rates to offshore nurseries. Fragments from the same wild donor colonies were placed in an offshore nursery and a land-based nursery and monitored for survival, growth, branch production, and branch thickness for 16 months. Survival was lower in the land-based nursery, largely due to a mechanical failure. Linear extension was lower in the land-based nursery until nursery conditions were evaluated and optimized. The optimization process included changes to water quality, temperature control, and lighting. Post-optimization, linear extension in the land-based nursery exceeded the offshore nursery, with a maximum monthly growth rate of 16.0 ± 5.3 mm month-1. The maximum monthly rate in the offshore nursery was 10.6 ± 4.1 mm month-1. Branch number and thickness were also lower initially in the land-based nursery, however both metrics increased rapidly after optimization. This experiment shows that A. cervicornis can be successfully grown in a land-based nursery, and that linear extension and fragment production can be higher than in offshore nurseries if environmental conditions are maintained within optimum ranges. This experiment highlights some of the conditions that promoted high linear extension rates in this species. The second objective of this study was to examine the success of corals outplanted from land-based nurseries and to determine whether corals reared in a land-based nursery would show the same growth and survival after transplantation as those reared in a traditional offshore nursery. This was examined in two experiments. In the first experiment, small fragments were outplanted from colonies reared offshore and from colonies reared in a land-based system. In the second experiment, larger colonies reared in the two separate land-based systems were outplanted to the same location. All transplanted corals were monitored for survival, growth, branch number, and incidence of predation, breakage, and disease over one year. Two major storm events occurred during this portion of the study, so the potential for differences in breakage or storm damage were also assessed. There were no significant differences in survival or growth of fragments outplanted from a land-based nursery and an offshore nursery. Colony outplants from one land-based location had better survival and growth than colonies from a second land-based location. Tropical storm activity greatly increased the occurrence of breakage and tissue loss in all groups, resulting in decreases in colony volume and additional mortality. Survival ranged from 85% to 100% after six months, and survival ranged from 70% to 89% after one year and the passing of two tropical storms. Small (5 cm) transplants did not have significantly lower survivorship than large transplants. Overall, the transplant of fragments and colonies raised in land-based nurseries was successful, as measured by growth and survival rates that were comparable to or exceeded those observed for corals raised in offshore nurseries. Large colony transplants exhibited the best survivorship and extension rates, but were also highly prone to breakage.

<p dir="ltr">Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are intense low-pressure weather systems that acts as a meteorological monster causing severe rainfall and widespread freshwater flooding, leading to extensive damage and disruption. Quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) are crucial for accurately understanding and evaluating the impacts of TCs. However, QPEs derived from various modalities, such as rain gauges, ground-based merged radars, and satellites, can differ significantly and require thorough comparison. Understanding the limitations/advantages of using each QPE is essential to simulate a hydrological model especially to estimate extreme events like TCs. The objective of the dissertation is to 1) characterize the tropical cyclone precipitation (TCP) using three gridded products, 2) characterize the impact of using different QPEs in estimation of hydrological variables using a hydrology model, and 3) understand the usability of satellite-derived QPEs for eight cases of TC and its impact on the estimate of hydrological variables. The QPEs include near real-time and post-processed satellite data from NASA’s Global Precipitation Mission-Integrated Multi-sensor Retrievals for GPM Rainfall Product (IMERG), merged ground radar observations (Stage IV) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), and interpolated gauge observations from the National Weather Service Cooperative Observer Program (GCOOP). The study quantifies how differences in rainfall intensity and location, as derived from these gridded precipitation datasets, impact surface hydrology. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and the geographic information system (GIS) routing assess the propagation of bias in the daily rainfall rate to total runoff, evapotranspiration, and flooding. The analysis covers eight tropical cyclones, including Hurricane Charley (2004), Hurricane Frances (2004), Hurricane Jeanne (2004), Tropical Storm Fay (2008), Tropical Storm Beryl (2012), Tropical Storm Debby (2012), Hurricane Irma (2017) and Hurricane Michael (2018) focusing on different regions in South-Atlantic Gulf region and land uses. The findings indicate that IMERG underpredicts precipitation at higher quantiles but aligns closely with ground-based and radar-based products at lower quantiles. IMERG reliably estimates total runoff and evapotranspiration in 90% of TC scenarios along the track and in agricultural and forested regions. There is substantial overlap ~ 70% between IMERG and GCOOP/Stage IV for the 90th percentile rainfall spatially for the case of TC Beryl 2012. Despite previous perceptions of underestimation, the study suggests that satellite-derived rainfall products can be valuable in simulating streamflow, particularly in data-scarce regions where ground estimates are lacking. The relative error in estimation is 12% and 22% when using IMERG instead of Stage IV and GCOOP rainfall data. The findings contribute to a broader perspective on usability of IMERG in estimating near real-time hydrological characteristics, paving the way for further research in this area. This analysis demonstrates that IMERG can be a reliable data product for hydrological studies even in the extreme events like landfalling TCs. This will be helpful in improving the preparedness of vulnerable communities and infrastructure against TC-induced flooding in data scare regions.</p>