Thesis (Ph. D.)--Rijksuniversiteit Limburg, Maastricht, 1996. / Errata slip (1 p.) inserted. Includes bibliographical references (p. 197-208) and index.

Through a study of the history and performance of successive military regimes, this thesis examines the role of military governments in economic development, particularly the creation of a market-enabling environment in Nigeria. The key question underlying this research is: did the policies formulated and implemented by the different military governments accelerate or decelerate economic, and concomitantly markets developments in Nigeria? Essentially, an evaluation of the military governments (1966-1999), is undertaken to determine the nature of the linkage, if any, between regimes and economic and market development policies. Also evaluated are two civilian governments within the relevant period, and only as a reference point to more effectively identify the military's role in economic development. Regime profile outlines the scope and economic effects of policies; case studies of the individual regimes illustrate the underlying reasons for economic underperformance. Measured in real terms and relative to its contribution to the welfare of the average citizen, the study shows that successive military governments' relative economic development achievements are not commensurate with the magnitude of resources expended. Indeed that the decades of military regimes have not seen, in real terms, any significant improvements in the distribution of national income and wealth. Indications also are that the military structure and its paternalistic policy accommodation account for much of the pervasive corruption found all through the regimes. Also identified is the role of the institutional civil service in policy formulation and implementation.

That countries with high natural resource abundance should experience slower economic growth than those with low resource abundance seems contrary to what would be expected, considering the developmental head-start such resources afford. Yet Sachs and Warner (1997) found that economies with a high share of natural resource exports in national income in 1970 tended to experience slower economic growth in the two decades that followed. This finding, that natural resources are a “curse” rather than a blessing, has become generally accepted. This thesis sought to test whether the conclusion drawn from their data – that higher natural resource abundance leads to slower economic growth – is still correct. It sought to test their findings first by correcting for their use of resource intensity (natural resources share of exports) as a proxy for abundance. Using measures of resource abundance for 1995 as a proxy for abundance in previous decades, it was found that higher resource abundance was not associated with lower economic growth in the 1970s and 1980s. This finding is contrary to that of Sachs and Warner (1997, 2001). Secondly, this thesis tested whether the natural resource curse effect was still present for the period 1995–2010. This was done by observing the effect of both resource abundance and resource intensity on economic growth during 1995–2010. In both cases no resource curse effect was found, for this more recent period. The resource curse had disappeared regardless of whether one uses Sachs and Warner’s (1997, 2001) measure of resource intensity or a measure of resource abundance. Natural resources should therefore no longer be considered a “curse”. In explaining the difference for the impact of resource intensity between the 1970-90 period measured by Sachs and Warner (1997, 2001) and the more recent period 1995-2010 it was found that the Dutch Disease effect has decreased significantly since the 1970s and 1980s. This could partly explain why the resource curse has disappeared when measured in terms of resource intensity. Thus it was concluded that the natural resource curse existed in the period 1970-90 only when measured in terms of resource intensity but not when measured relative to resource abundance. The negative effects of natural resources on economic growth have disappeared in terms of both resource intensity and resource abundance in the more recent time period.

Introduction: The prevalence of bad perceived health status and depression, their sociodemographic determinants (education level, employment status, relative household income, race, age and gender) and the modifying effect of depression on PHS have been investigated among a cohort of young adults using data from the South African National Income Dynamics Study (NIDS) waves 1-5. South Africa is a middle-income country, with very high levels of socioeconomic inequality and a history of apartheid. Both depression and PHS tend to be affected by socio-demographic and environmental factors. Methods: Depression was measured using the CES-D-10 scale and PHS was measured on a 5- point likert scale ranging from excellent to poor. A binary version of PHS was generated which groups the categories excellent, very good and good into good and the categories poor and fair into bad PHS. Descriptive analysis and Mixed Effects Regression analysis were conducted. MER is appropriate for unbalanced panels as this method is robust to irregularly spaced measurements. Results: A high prevalence of depression was found in the study with about 13%-20% of the cohort being depressed at each wave. Surprisingly, a low level of bad PHS has been found in the cohort with less than 5% of the young adults having bad PHS at all waves. Completion of secondary and tertiary education and being employed have been found to significantly lower the odds of being depressed and increase the chances of having good PHS. Africans were significantly more likely to be depressed, as compared to other racial groups. Finally, being depressed was found to reduce the likelihood of good PHS. Discussion: Education level completed and being employed have been found to significantly protect individuals from being depressed and to increase the likelihood of good PHS. In post-apartheid South Africa, the effects of inequalities arising from apartheid social and economic policies are still present with Africans being found more likely to be depressed.

Many of Africa’s economies are mineral based. Their sustainability and their macroeconomic vulnerability to market fluctuations are accordingly matters of direct concern. This thesis asks how much of the proceeds of mining in such countries can be safely spent each year. Using El Serafy’s approach to the ‘proper’ definition of National Income, it recomputes Net Domestic Product in 11 mineral-based African economies and tests for their macroeconomic sustainability. The study finds a disturbingly poor level of sustainability in several of them; with aggregate expenditures in excess of the levels posited under efficient resource rent management given the El Serafy User cost approach. The study estimates the budget deficit and national debt as a proportion of net national product adjusted for mineral resource depletion in each country and evaluates the outcome by comparison with standard ‘rules of thumb’ concerning ‘acceptable’ fiscal deficits and national debt levels. The outcome reveals that using GDP as an anchor as opposed to an ‘appropriate’ measure that adjust for mineral resource depletion by policy-makers may lead to the implementation of sub-optimal economic policies which are detrimental for sustainable income growth and development. The findings from the study therefore highlight the need for more efficient resource management as well as the development of a ’properly defined‘ national income which corrects for resource depletion to inform sustainable fiscal policy.

The purpose of this dissertation would be to find the relationship between CO2 emission and GDP. We found that in case of the majority of countries the CO2 emission is related to national income and follows an inverted-U shaped curve. In our analysis we used the regression technique on 139 countries within the time period 1985-2004 to model and analyze the mentioned relationship and define the variables, that describe it. As it will be proved, Environmental Kuznets Curve validate the model and our hypothesis confirm other researches, therefore the inverse-u relationship proves to be correct.

<p> </p><p>The purpose of this dissertation would be to find the relationship between CO₂ emission and GDP. We found that in case of the majority of countries the CO₂emission is related to national income and follows an inverted-U shaped curve. In our analysis we used the regression technique on 139 countries within the time period 1985-2004 to model and analyze the mentioned relationship and define the variables, that describe it. As it will be proved, Environmental Kuznets Curve validate the model and our hypothesis confirm other researches, therefore the inverse-u relationship proves to be correct.</p><p> </p>

No description available.

Philosophiae Doctor - PhD (Development Studies) / There is a wide-reaching consensus that data required for poverty analysis in developing countries are inadequate. Concerns have been raised on the accuracy and adequacy of household surveys, especially those emanating from Sub-Saharan Africa. Part of the debate has hinted on the existence of a statistical tragedy, but caution has also been voiced that African statistical offices are not similar and some statistical offices having stronger statistical capacities than others. The use of generalizations therefore fails to capture these variations. This thesis argues that African statistical offices are facing data challenges but not necessarily to the extent insinuated. In the post-1995 period, there has been an increase in the availability of household surveys from developing countries. This has also been accompanied by an expansion of poverty analyses efforts. Despite this surge in data availability, available household survey data remain inadequate in meeting the demand to answer poverty related enquiry. What is also evident is that cross sectional household surveys were conducted more extensively than panel data. Resultantly the paucity of panel data in developing counties is more pronounced. In South Africa, a country classified as ‘data rich’ in this thesis, there exists inadequate panel surveys that are nationally representative and covers a comprehensive period in the post-1995 period. Existing knowledge on poverty dynamics in the country has relied mostly on the use of the National Income Dynamic Study, KwaZulu Natal Dynamic Study and smaller cohort-based panels such as the Birth to Twenty and Birth to Ten cohort studies that have rarely been used in the analysis of poverty dynamics. Using mixed methods, this thesis engages these data issues. The qualitative component of this thesis uses key informants from Statistics South Africa and explores how the organization has measured poverty over the years. A historical background on the context of statistical conduct in the period before 1995 shows the shaky foundation that characterised statistical conduct in the country at the inception of Statistics South Africa in 1995. The organization since then has expanded its efforts in poverty measurement; partly a result of the availability of more household survey data. Improvements within the organization also are evidenced by the emergence of a fully-fledged Poverty and Inequality division within the organization. The agency has managed to embrace the measurement of multidimensional poverty. Nevertheless, there are issues surrounding available poverty related data. Issues of comparability affect poverty analysis, and these are discussed in this thesis. The informants agreed that there is need for more analysis of poverty using available surveys in South Africa. Against this backdrop, the use of pseudo panels to analyse poverty dynamics becomes an attractive option. Given the high costs associated with the conduct of panel surveys, pseudo panels are not only cost effective, but they enable the analysis of new research questions that would not be possible using existing data in its traditional forms. Elsewhere, pseudo panels have been used in the analysis of poverty dynamics in the absence of genuine panel data and the results have proved their importance. The methodology used to generate the pseudo panel in this thesis borrows from previous works including the work of Deaton and generates 13 birth cohorts using the Living Conditions Surveys of 2008/9 and 2014/15 as well as the IES of 2010. The birth cohorts under a set of given assumptions are ‘tracked’ in these three time periods. The thesis then analysed the expenditure patterns and poverty rates of birth cohorts. The findings suggested that in South Africa, expenditures are driven mostly with incomes from the labour market and social grants. The data however did not have adequate and comparative variables on the types of employment to further explore this debate. It also emerged that birth cohorts with male headship as well as birth cohorts in urban settlements and in White and Indian households have a higher percentage share of their income coming from labour market sources. On the other hand, birth cohorts with female headship and residing in rural, African and in Coloured households are more reliant on social grants. The majority of recipients of social grants receive the Child Social Grant and its minimalist value partly explains why birth cohorts reporting social grants as their main source of income are more likely to be poor when compared to birth cohorts who mostly earn their income from the labour market. Residing in a female-headed household, or in a rural area as well as in Black African and Coloured increases the chances of experiencing poverty. This supports existing knowledge on poverty in South Africa and confirms that these groups are deprived. The results of the pseudo panel analysis also show that poverty reduced between 2006 and 2011 for most birth cohorts but increased in 2015. Policy recommendations to reduce poverty therefore lie in the labour market. However, given the high levels of unemployment in the country today, more rigorous labour incentives are required.

Magister Commercii - MCom / There have been many studies focussing on informal sector in South Africa in the last 25 years. This paper adds to the wealth of research that has been conducted in this field. It examines the linkages between the formal sector and informal sector, and how they interact with each other. The study uses probit models and fixed effects models to investigate how variables such as age, education and skill level affect employability and income in the labour market. This paper uses two data sets: wave 1 to wave 5 panel data of the 2008-2016 National Income Dynamics Study (NIDS) to investigate the nature of the formal sector and the informal sector in South Africa. To study the linkages between the firms in the formal and informal sector, it uses the eThekwini Large and Medium Manufacturing Firm Survey dataset collected in 2013/2014.