The Canterbury Region is susceptible to a variety of natural hazards, including earthquakes, landslides and climate hazards. Increasing population and tourism within the region is driving development pressures and as more and more development occurs, the risk from natural hazards increases. In order to avoid development occurring in unacceptably vulnerable locations, natural hazard assessments are required. This study is a reconnaissance natural hazard assessment of Lakes Lyndon, Coleridge and Tekapo. There is restricted potential for development at Lake Lyndon, because the land surrounding the lake is owned by the Crown and has a number of development restrictions. However, there is the potential for conservation or recreation-linked development to occur. There is more potential for development at Lake Coleridge. Most of the land surrounding the lake is privately owned and has less development restrictions. The majority of land surrounding Lake Tekapo is divided into Crown-owned pastoral leases, which are protected from development, such as subdivision. However, there are substantial areas around the lake, which are privately owned and, therefore, have potential for development. Earthquake, landslide and climate hazards are the main natural hazards threatening Lakes Lyndon, Coleridge and Tekapo. The lakes are situated in a zone of active earth deformation in which large and relatively frequent earthquakes are produced. A large number of active faults lie within 15 km of each lake, which are capable of producing M7 or larger earthquakes. Ground shaking, liquefaction, landslides, tsunami and seiches are among the consequences of earthquakes, all of which have the potential to cause severe damage to lives, lifelines and infrastructure. Landslides are also common in the landscape surrounding the lakes. The majority of slopes surrounding the lakes are at significant risk from earthquake-induced failure under moderate to strong earthquake shaking. This level of shaking is expected to occur in any 50 year period around Lakes Lyndon and Coleridge, and in any 150 year period around Lake Tekapo. Injuries, fatalities and property damage can occur directly from landslide impact or from indirect effects such as flooding from landslide-generated tsunami or from landslide dam outbreaks. Lakes Lyndon, Coleridge and Tekapo are also susceptible to climate hazards, such as high winds, drought, heavy snowfall and heavy rainfall, which can lead to landslides and flooding. Future climate change due to global warming is most likely going to affect patterns of frequency and magnitudes of extreme weather events, leading to an increase in climate hazards. Before development is permitted around the lakes, it is essential that each of these hazards is considered so that unacceptably vulnerable areas can be avoided.

The number of people suffering from natural disasters, and the economic impact of those disasters, continue to increase as the years go by. Better preparation and risk management strategies can help lessen the impacts of these disasters. One important aspect of risk management is risk assessment, which can be accomplished with a hazard map. One application of hazard maps is to forecast volcanic ashfall following an eruption to help people and organisations prepare themselves for, and mitigate the detrimental impacts of, volcanic ashfall. This research evaluated the key elements of a hazard map and how to make a hazard map most effective through the study of short-term ashfall forecast maps in New Zealand. A mixed-methods approach was taken for this research. Interviews were conducted with scientists at GNS and stakeholders who use the ashfall forecast maps. After the data from the interviews was analysed, an internet-based survey was created and sent out to anyone interested in participating. The survey served as a low-resolution verification of the high-resolution data gathered in the interviews. After each stage of information gathering, the ashfall forecast map design was updated. This research found that there are seven basic elements which should be considered when creating a hazard map. These elements are: simplicity of the map, base map, map scale, the use of colour, geographical information, the inclusion of uncertainty, and time. This research also found key lessons which can be applied to any hazard map creation process. These lessons are: established practices should be revaluated periodically, communication between the information provider and the enduser is critical, the information provider must decide between satisfying the individual or the group, education and outreach are important, audience feedback is necessary for an effective map, and that hazard maps are just one step in the risk mitigation process.

The Canterbury Region is susceptible to a variety of natural hazards, including earthquakes, landslides and climate hazards. Increasing population and tourism within the region is driving development pressures and as more and more development occurs, the risk from natural hazards increases. In order to avoid development occurring in unacceptably vulnerable locations, natural hazard assessments are required. This study is a reconnaissance natural hazard assessment of Lakes Lyndon, Coleridge and Tekapo. There is restricted potential for development at Lake Lyndon, because the land surrounding the lake is owned by the Crown and has a number of development restrictions. However, there is the potential for conservation or recreation-linked development to occur. There is more potential for development at Lake Coleridge. Most of the land surrounding the lake is privately owned and has less development restrictions. The majority of land surrounding Lake Tekapo is divided into Crown-owned pastoral leases, which are protected from development, such as subdivision. However, there are substantial areas around the lake, which are privately owned and, therefore, have potential for development. Earthquake, landslide and climate hazards are the main natural hazards threatening Lakes Lyndon, Coleridge and Tekapo. The lakes are situated in a zone of active earth deformation in which large and relatively frequent earthquakes are produced. A large number of active faults lie within 15 km of each lake, which are capable of producing M7 or larger earthquakes. Ground shaking, liquefaction, landslides, tsunami and seiches are among the consequences of earthquakes, all of which have the potential to cause severe damage to lives, lifelines and infrastructure. Landslides are also common in the landscape surrounding the lakes. The majority of slopes surrounding the lakes are at significant risk from earthquake-induced failure under moderate to strong earthquake shaking. This level of shaking is expected to occur in any 50 year period around Lakes Lyndon and Coleridge, and in any 150 year period around Lake Tekapo. Injuries, fatalities and property damage can occur directly from landslide impact or from indirect effects such as flooding from landslide-generated tsunami or from landslide dam outbreaks. Lakes Lyndon, Coleridge and Tekapo are also susceptible to climate hazards, such as high winds, drought, heavy snowfall and heavy rainfall, which can lead to landslides and flooding. Future climate change due to global warming is most likely going to affect patterns of frequency and magnitudes of extreme weather events, leading to an increase in climate hazards. Before development is permitted around the lakes, it is essential that each of these hazards is considered so that unacceptably vulnerable areas can be avoided.

According to Munich Re (2013), economic losses related to natural disasters have increased from an average of $50 billion in the 1980s to $200 billion over the last decade. The cost of natural disasters is accumulating rapidly and some claim that climate change is responsible. Others believe that human behaviors like population growth or land use should be blamed for these rising costs. The process of climate change has already taken place, and it is expected to continue to impact the future. As a result, people are more vulnerable today. Therefore, understanding the economic aspects of climate change and natural hazard risks should be considered as a major issue and addressed in greater detail. This dissertation aimed to explore household preferences of climate change adaptation and the economic impacts of natural hazards at both micro- and macro- levels. The dissertation consisted of three related empirical studies based on the two main changes that will occur with climate change predicted by scientific climate models: stronger hurricanes and rising sea levels. The first chapter examined the impact of a recent hurricane on household activities. The objective was to find out whether a more intensified hurricane caused greater damages, and whether such damages had a long-lasting impact on household recovery. If the impact of natural hazards is worse than before, people should avoid putting themselves in harm's way. However, evidence indicates that the population in coastal cities is still growing fast, as people tend to reside near the beaches and attractive landscapes. Concerns are thus prompted by the possible lack of perceptions for future risks caused by natural hazards. Therefore, the second chapter focused on household perceptions and preferences for adapting to sea level rise in Florida. Lastly, although a disaster strikes rich or poor nations indifferently, some small island nations are among the most vulnerable. In the third chapter, the macroeconomic implications of natural hazards in Central America and the Caribbean were investigated. A careful examination of the economic factors that can lead to smaller losses and higher abilities to cope with disasters is crucial in such countries.

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(理学) / 甲第18640号 / 理博第4019号 / 新制||理||1579(附属図書館) / 31554 / 京都大学大学院理学研究科地球惑星科学専攻 / (主査)教授 石川 裕彦, 准教授 林 泰一, 教授 余田 成男 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Science / Kyoto University / DGAM

Lahars pose a significant risk to communities, particularly those living near snow-capped volcanoes. Flows of mud and debris, typically but not necessarily triggered by volcanic activity, can have huge impacts, such as those seen at Nevado Del Ruiz, Colombia, in 1985 which led to the loss of over 23,000 lives and destroyed an entire town. We surveyed communities around Mount Rainier, Washington, United States, where over 150,000 people are at risk from lahar impacts. We explored how factors including demographics, social effects such as perceptions of community preparedness, evacuation drills, and cognitive factors such as risk perception and self-efficacy relate to preparedness when living within or nearby a volcanic hazard zone. Key findings include: women have stronger intentions to prepare but see themselves as less prepared than men; those who neither live nor work in a lahar hazard zone were more likely to have an emergency kit and to see themselves as more prepared; those who will need help to evacuate see the risk as lower but feel less prepared; those who think their community and officials are more prepared feel more prepared themselves; and benefits of evacuation drills and testing evacuation routes including stronger intentions to evacuate using an encouraged method and higher self-efficacy. We make a number of recommendations based on these findings including the critical practice of regular evacuation drills and the importance of ongoing messaging that focuses on appropriate ways to evacuate as well as the careful recommendation for residents to identify alternative unofficial evacuation routes.

No description available.

Thesis (M.A.)--Miami University, Dept. of Geography, 2007. / Title from first page of PDF document. Includes bibliographical references (p. 67-72).

Small, tight-knit communities, are complex to manage from outside during a disaster. The township of Lyttelton, New Zealand, and the communities of Corsair Bay, Cass Bay, and Rapaki to the east, are especially more so difficult due to the terrain that encloses them, which caused them to be cut-off from Christchurch, the largest city in the South Island, barely 10 km away, after the Mw 7.1 Darfield Earthquake and subsequent Canterbury Earthquake Sequence. Lyttelton has a very strong and deep-rooted community spirit that draws people to want to be a part of Lyttelton life. It is predominantly residential on the slopes, with retail space, service and light industry nestled near the harbour. It has heritage buildings stretching back to the very foundation of Canterbury yet hosts the largest, modern deep-water port for the region. This study contains two surveys: one circulated shortly before the Darfield Earthquake and one circulated in July 2011, after the Christchurch and Sumner Earthquakes. An analytical comparison of the participants’ household preparedness for disaster before the Darfield Earthquake and after the Christchurch and Sumner Earthquakes was performed. A population spatiotemporal distribution map was produced that shows the population in three-hourly increments over a week to inform exposure to vulnerability to natural hazards. The study went on to analyse the responses of the participants in the immediate period following the Chrsitchurch and Sumner Earthquakes, including their homeward and subsequent journeys, and the decision to evacuate or stay in their homes. Possible predictors to a decision to evacuate some or all members of the household were tested. The study also asked participants’ views on the events since September 2010 for analysis.

Purpose – Near-field tsunamis provide short warning periods of equal to 30 minutes, which can complicate at-risk individuals’ protective action decisions. In the face of a tsunami, people may turn to individuals such as friends, family, neighbors, or organizations such as the media to obtain warning information to help facilitate evacuation and/or to seek protection from the hazard. To characterize norms for protection action behavior during a near-field tsunami, the purpose of this paper is to explore American Samoan residents’ perceptions of four social stakeholder groups on three characteristics – tsunami knowledge, trustworthiness, and protection responsibility – regarding the September 29, 2009, Mw 8.1 earthquake and tsunami in American Samoa. Design/methodology/approach – The social stakeholder groups were the respondents themselves, their peers, officials, and media. Mean ratings revealed that respondents rated themselves highest for tsunami knowledge and protection against the tsunami but rated peers highest for trustworthiness. In addition, officials had the lowest mean rankings for all three stakeholder characteristics. MANOVA analyses found that there was a statistically significant overall effect for occupation status on respondents’ perceptions of the four stakeholder groups and characteristics. Findings – Employed respondents generally reported higher mean ratings for all stakeholder groups across the three characteristics than those that reported not having an occupation. Given the complexity of evacuation behavior, at-risk individuals may seek the assistance of other community members to support their protective action decisions. Originality/value – The information gathered from this study provides local emergency managers with useful data that could support future disaster resilience efforts for tsunamis.