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Extreme weather events and effects of climate change are threats to the transport sector’s functionality and safety. Risk management in this context implies a necessity to focus on the connection between near-term experiences and coping strategies on one hand, and long-term adaptation analyses on the other. How learning from past events and subsequent knowledge sharing can be adopted is a question that needs to be explored, discussed and tested. A systematic approach to lessons learned calls for measures of investigation, reporting, planning, implementation and evaluation. A qualitative case study approach was used in this thesis. In the first paper the practices of accident investigation in operation and maintenance were inventoried within the Swedish Transport Administration (STA). Three accident investigation methods were applied and tested on a cloudburst event, causing flooding in a railway tunnel in Sweden. In the second paper, semi-structured interviews, documents, and archival records were used as means for penetrating deeper into the attitudes and understanding of lessons learned concerning extreme weather events within a procured public-private partnership. The results of the two studies showed weak signals of feedback on lessons learned. Partly, these weak signals could be traced back to weak steering signals. Various obstacles impeded learning curves from lessons learned. The obstacles were of both hard and soft values, e.g. resources in time and equipment, systematic investigation methods, incentives for lessons learned, education and knowledge, values, norms and attitudes towards how and why identified problems should be solved. Successful knowledge sharing requires that close attention is paid to such obstacles and that an adaptive approach is adopted. / Den pågående och framtida klimatförändringen sätter press på aktörer att möta risker som associeras med klimatförändring. Syftet med denna avhandling är att bidra med kunskap om lärande och kunskapsöverföring inom offentlig förvaltning av landtransportinfrastruktur. Eftersom lärande och kunskapsöverföring är grundläggande för planering och beslutsfattande om strategier och åtgärder som främjar ett robust transportsystem. Målet för detta arbete är att belysa lärande och kunskapsöverföring inom och mellan olika organisationer i det svenska samhället. Det socio-tekniska systemperspektivet - som används som analysram i båda studierna ger en djupare förståelse för bakomliggande faktorer. En kvalitativ ansats, som omfattar intervjuer, deltagande observationer och dokumentanalys, har används i detta licentiatarbete. I den första studien belyses möjligheten att använda sig av industriella utredningsmetoder på naturolyckor i en svensk kontext av en översvämning i en järnvägstunnel. De industriella utredningsmetoderna visade sig vara användbara för utredning av konsekvenser efter skyfall, med olika metodologiska fördelar och nackdelar. Den andra studien utforskar hur Trafikverkets verksamhetsområde Underhåll arbetar med lärande kopplat till väderextremer; hur de fångar upp erfarenheter och kunskap som finns hos kontrakterade entreprenörer, samt hur entreprenörerna uppfattar att lärande och erfarenhetsåterföring sker. Resultatet från båda studierna visar på både svaga styrsignaler och svaga återkopplingssignaler, vilket medför svaga lärandekurvor. Olika hinder sågs ligga bakom med svaga styr- och återkopplingssignaler bl.a. resurser i tid och processer, systematik i utredning av naturolyckor, incitament att lära av varandra, utbildning och kunskap, värderingar normer och attityder till hur och varför identifierade problem ska lösas. Ett adaptivt förhållningssätt innebär att man behöver ta hänsyn till dessa hinder på ett systematiskt sätt. / The agreement in Paris in 2015 was an historic manifestation that society has to work with both mitigation and adaptation to achieve a reduction of the adverse effects of climate change. One way to achieve adaptation is through the integration of present coping strategies. A first step is to study the existing processes and routines that support short-term coping. This licentiate thesis targets different aspects of learning as a strategy for coping and building adaptive capacity. Road infrastructure and maintenance in relation to extreme weather are used as the physical context and the Swedish Transport Administration as a case to study. Paper I shows the possibility to apply industrial accident investigation methods to an extreme weather event and get useful insights into underlying root causes. Paper II shows the intra- and interrelated patterns that exist in public-private partnerships (PPP) in Sweden. The paper describes a parallel of systems with infrequent overlaps regarding lessons learned.  In both papers the socio-technical perspective approach was used to highlight aspects of learning from and investigating damage due to extreme weather at different tiers in society. The socio-technical perspective provides an understanding of how decisions and legislation that affect our actions and behavior today may have been taken in different time and space settings. This thesis contributes to concept and theory building regarding the socio-technical system approach. / <p>Paper 2 ingick i licentiatuppsatsen som manuskript, nu publicerat.</p>

Turkish Compulsory Earthquake Insurance (ZDS) introduced after the 1999 Earthquakes aimed to lower financial burdens of the State and to promote safer building construction. High earthquake risk in Turkey necessitates risk mitigation, in line with the priority of the new international policy. Yet, the ZDS system operates without regard to risk mitigation, and it is far from being a compulsory condition. The ZDS system has low penetration ratios due to expectations of State-aid in the event of a disaster, which arise from perceived attributes of ZDS, according to the findings of the Zeytinburnu household survey. The ZDS system generates social inequalities because purchase of the ZDS contracts is voluntary. This is related to higher social statuses and general insurance purchase behavior, whereas insured homeowners in middle-lower income levels are observed to differ significantly from un-insured homeowners in their perception of the ZDS purchase as &lsquo / compulsory&rsquo / and as a form of &lsquo / social solidarity&rsquo / . Operation of the ZDS disregarding risk mitigation seems to promote fatalistic attitudes andTurkish Compulsory Earthquake Insurance (ZDS) introduced after the 1999 Earthquakes aimed to lower financial burdens of the State and to promote safer building construction. High earthquake risk in Turkey necessitates risk mitigation, in line with the priority of the new international policy. Yet, the ZDS system operates without regard to risk mitigation, and it is far from being a compulsory condition. The ZDS system has low penetration ratios due to expectations of State-aid in the event of a disaster, which arise from perceived attributes of ZDS, according to the findings of the Zeytinburnu household survey. The ZDS system generates social inequalities because purchase of the ZDS contracts is voluntary. This is related to higher social statuses and general insurance purchase behavior, whereas insured homeowners in middle-lower income levels are observed to differ significantly from un-insured homeowners in their perception of the ZDS purchase as &lsquo / compulsory&rsquo / and as a form of &lsquo / social solidarity&rsquo / . Operation of the ZDS disregarding risk mitigation seems to promote fatalistic attitudes and reluctance to conform with requirements of risk mitigation. Low penetration ratio and high earthquake risk threaten efficiency of the ZDS system and does not reduce burdens of the State. Based on survey findings, a more appropriate strategy for the achievement of resilience against earthquakes could be possible through the collaboration of the ZDS system with local administrations. It is observed that by means of a &lsquo / Grant Program&rsquo / , there may be abundant reason and evidence to achieve convertion of the ZDS system from a post-disaster loss compensation mechanism to a predisaster risk reduction benefactor. Supporting municipalities to produce urban risk maps could reduce risks by more accurate estimation of potential losses, and an extended coverage of the ZDS system to urban risks. Relationship analyses between homeowners&rsquo / attributes, perceptions and tendencies toward alternative policies indicate the necessity of introducing policies based risk-rated premiums. Homeowners are observed as requiring technical and financial assistance to take mitigation measures, decisions under individualized conditions, on the other hand, seem to reinforce fatalistic attitudes and reluctance due to the disregard of risk mitigation benefits and ZDS purchase. Waste of public resources and creation of social inequalities could be prevented by enhancing the capacities of local authorities to implement urban risk mitigation plans and community-based projects via a Grant Program. &lsquo / Relationship analyses&rsquo / of the attitudes of homeowners for alternative policies with respect to their attributes and perceptions revealed that a Grant Program could result in the perception of the ZDS system as a form of social solidarity in risk mitigation. This is to reduce fatalistic attitudes, and curb reluctance compared to individualized conditions of insurance purchase. As a result, willingness to mitigate risks through active participation and purchase of ZDS contracts, particularly among homeowners in the middle-lower socio-economic statuses are likely to expand leading to a resilience society.

The plate-boundary Alpine Fault runs immediately offshore of the popular tourist destination of Milford Sound, which is visited by more than half a million tourists each year. Glaciers retreated from the fiord between ~24-16 ka, leaving behind a legacy of extreme topography, including some of the world's highest sea cliffs, which tower nearly 2 km above the fiord. Visitors come to view the spectacularly steep and rugged landscape, with many cruising the fiord by boat. This project utilizes surface exposure dating (TCND) of glacially modified surfaces, to gain further insight into the glacier retreat history of Milford Sound. Exposure dates from strategic locations near the entrance to the fiord indicate that the main trunk glacier had retreated about 9 km from its peak LGM position by ~18 ka. Additional TCND and calibrated Schmidt Hammer data from a range of positions within the Milford catchment provide strong evidence that the main trunk glacier receded rapidly after about 18 ka, retreating a further 16 km to a position near the present-day confluence of the Tutoko and Cleddau rivers, by ~16 ka. Available seismic reflection data suggest that post-glacial sediment infill has been strongly influenced by massive deposits of rock avalanche debris. New high-resolution bathymetric and seismic reflection data reveals the presence of at least 18 very large post-glacial rock avalanche deposits which blanket ~40% of the fiord bottom. Geomorphic mapping and field investigation reveal the presence of at least ten additional very large to giant terrestrial landslide deposits in the lower Milford catchment; radiocarbon and surface exposure dating indicate that these events occurred during the Holocene, between ~9-1 ka. Ages of six of these deposits are in agreement with published rupture dates on the southern on-shore portion of the Alpine Fault.

Il y a 7000 ans BP, la stabilisation du niveau marin a entraîné la formation de deltas. Ces zones deltaïques abritent des milieux aux degrés de protection différents favorables à une activité maritime. Cependant, ces espaces sont soumis à des contraintes naturelles : à l'échelle de la longue durée, l'alluvionnement des deltas entraîne la mobilité des littoraux et le colmatage des milieux portuaires ; à l'échelle de l'événement, les tempêtes, les tsunamis et la mobilité crustale entraînent la destruction, la submersion ou le soulèvement des zones portuaires. Ce travail porte sur l'étude des contraintes et des potentialités environnementales de cinq ports antiques répartis dans le monde Méditerranéen en marge de deltas. L'objectif est d'estimer le poids de ces contraintes sur les sociétés via une approche statistique. Pour quatre des sites d'études, l'alluvionnement est le forçage majeur. A Kition et Orgame, l'impact de l'alluvionnement est indirect. La fermeture des baies marines par l'édification de cordons littoraux crée des environnements lagunaires propices à l'installation de zones portuaires. En revanche, Fréjus et Ampurias sont soumis à un alluvionnement direct qui a rapidement colmaté les bassins. A partir de l'époque romaine et avec l'invention de la pouzzolane, des zones portuaires sont installées en milieu littoral ouvert, comme à Istanbul. Dans un contexte tectoniquement actif, les tsunamis constituent la contrainte majeure opérant sur le port byzantin de Théodose à Istanbul. Un dépôt grossier et chaotique, contenant du matériel marin et archéologique remanié, compose une partie de la séquence stratigraphique de colmatage du bassin et témoigne de ce forçage. / The stabilization of sea level at 7000 years ago led to the formation of deltaic areas. These areas constituted sheltered environments particularly conducive to maritime activity. However, these areas were also subject to natural constraints for human occupation: at long timescales, high sediment supply to deltaic areas led to significative coastal changes and the infilling of harbour areas; at shorter timescales, high-energy events and crustal mobility led to the destruction, submersion and/or uplift of harbour areas. This work focuses on the study of environmental constraints and potentialities governing five ancient harbours, located on deltaic margins in the Mediterranean. The study aims to semi-qualitatively measure of the weight of these constraints on harbour cities, using statistical approach. High sediment supply is the major natural forcing. At Orgame and Kition, the closure of marine bays by coastal barriers led to the formation of lagoon environments conducive to the installation of harbour areas. Frejus and Ampurias were subject to direct siltation which quickly infilled the harbour basin. The invention of the pozzolan in Roman times means that harbours could be constructed in coastal areas open to the sea and away from river mouths, such as Istanbul harbour. In a tectonically active context, tsunamis are the major constraint acting in the Byzantine harbour of Theodosius in Istanbul. There, the stratigraphic sequence contains a coarse and chaotic deposit composed of reworked marine and archaeological material which demonstrates the societal impacts of such a natural and destructive forcing agent.

En zone de montagne, les avalanches de neige menacent les personnes et également les structures de génie civil. Ce travail de thèse se focalise sur une structure de protection en BA (Béton Armé) de type mur en L. L'objectif est de caler et valider un modèle EF (Elément Fini) 2D afin d'étudier le comportement de tels ouvrages sous l'effet de champs de pression induits par des avalanches de neige dense et d'évaluer leur vulnérabilité face à cet aléa naturel. Quatre lois de comportement décrivant la rhéologie du béton ont été testées en vue de reproduire le plus précisément possible la ruine du mur en BA. Un modèle physique de la structure à échelle 1/6 a permis, via un test pushover, d'obtenir des données expérimentales utiles pour le calage des modèles EF proposés. Seulement deux des lois de comportement ont permis de converger vers un mode de ruine pertinent et en accord avec les observations expérimentales. Le modèle EF une fois calé a ensuite été utilisé afin d'investiguer la réponse mécanique de l'ouvrage sous sollicitation avalancheuse. En fonction de l'impulsion du signal de chargement, trois régimes peuvent être obtenus (quasi-statique, dynamique et impulsionnel). Dans le cas d'une avalanche de neige dense, les résultats montrent que la réponse mécanique de la structure en question peut être considérée comme quasi-statique. Toutefois, les signaux avalancheux dépendant de nombreux facteurs (type d'avalanche, densité, température, etc.), différents types de réponses peuvent potentiellement se développer. Pour finir, la vulnérabilité et la fiabilité du mur en BA ont été étudiées afin de préciser l'influence d'une part de la géométrie et d'autre part des caractéristiques des matériaux sur la capacité de protection qu'offre ce type d'ouvrage. In fine, ces résultats pourront être utilisés dans un cadre de gestion intégrée du risque. / Snow avalanches threaten people and also different types of civil engineering structures in mountainous areas. This PhD thesis focuses on a protective RC (Reinforced Concrete) structure consisting of an L-shaped wall. The objective of this study is to calibrate and validate a 2D FE (Finite Element) model in order to explore the mechanical behavior of such RC structures loaded by snow avalanche pressure fields and to assess their vulnerability when exposed to this kind of natural hazard. Four constitutive laws describing the concrete rheology were tested to describe the collapse of the RC wall. A physical 1/6-scale model permitted obtaining, via a pushover test, useful experimental data for the calibration of the proposed FE models. Two concrete models allowed converging to a relevant collapse of the structure in agreement with the experimental observations. Then, the calibrated FE model was used to investigate the mechanical response of the wall under avalanche loading. According to the impulse of the loading signal, three regimes can occur (quasi-static, dynamic or impulsive). In the case of dense-snow avalanches, the results show that the mechanical response of this structure can be described as quasi-static. However, avalanche signals depend on many factors (type of avalanche, density, temperature, etc.) and several types of responses can potentially develop. Finally, the vulnerability and the reliability of the RC wall were studied to show the influence of the geometry and the material properties on the capacity of the protective structure. In fine, these results will be used in an integrated risk framework in order to help decision makers.

Due to climate change and natural variations in the hydrological cycle, global mean sea levels are increasing, causing the mean sea levels in different regions of the world to increase. In Sweden, coastal cities are facing rising water levels which is increasing flooding. The coastal community of Gothenburg, Sweden was identified the 18th most vulnerable city in the country both to flooding induced by water level rise and other climate change related impacts. Its location, in proximity of Lake Vänern, and in the mouth of the Göta River and its tributaries: Säveån, Mölndalsån and Lärjeån is heightening flood risk and vulnerability in the area. This thesis aims to contribute in comprehending the integration process of natural hazard and climate change adaptation for flood management in Älvstaden- central Gothenburg between 1999 and 2015. With the main objectives being” how the municipality of Gothenburg has applied the urban land use planning theory for the integration of natural hazard and climate change adaptation, with regards to adaptation for flood management in Älvstaden between 1999 and 2015? “What climate change adaptation policies for flood management have been implemented in Gothenburg within this time frame, and how the policies have been revised to match the reality of flood issues?” And “What improvements would be made in the integration process to better address adaptation for flood management?” A desk-based research and one case study approach was adopted for this study. The findings indicate that although the city has systematically used the steps involved in the integration process of natural hazard and climate change adaptation for flood management, it does not link the policies and the measures applied to adaptation for flood management. Which is an issue as it has led to the exclusion of vital functions of the integration process. Suggestions on how the integration process could be improved are provided.

La gestion des risques d’origine naturelle est un défi stratégique majeur pour les collectivités territoriales en raison de l’impact négatif potentiel de ces risques sur leur développement. Dans la perspective d’une gestion durable de ces risques, l’élaboration de méthodes et d’outils d’aide à la décision multicritère pour l’évaluation de la durabilité des stratégies de gestion représente une thématique de recherche intéressante et d’actualité. Les principaux verrous scientifiques sous-jacents à cette thématique portent sur la nécessité de définir un cadre théorique pour l’évaluation de cette durabilité et la prise en compte d’incertitudes provenant de différentes sources (données d’entrée, choix méthodologiques, dynamique du contexte, etc.) susceptibles d'influer sur la qualité des résultats de l’évaluation et donc sur la prise de décision. D’où la nécessité d’une méthodologie pour la prise en compte des incertitudes dans le processus décisionnel afin de fournir des résultats les plus pertinents possibles aux décideurs. Pour lever ces verrous, cette thèse propose une méthodologie globale d’évaluation qui repose sur le concept de développement durable et intègre un ensemble de critères et indicateurs permettant de rendre compte des conséquences techniques, économiques, sociétales, environnementales et institutionnelles des stratégies de gestion. Les incertitudes sont quantifiées selon une approche probabiliste (Simulations Monte Carlo) ou possibiliste (théorie des possibilités) et propagées le long du processus d’évaluation par l’arithmétique de la théorie des intervalles. Elle propose également un simulateur pour évaluer les dommages liés aux inondations et permettre une estimation aussi bien déterministe qu’aléatoire de différents types de ces dommages à l’échelle d’une commune. Ces contributions ont été appliquées à une étude de cas sur la commune de Dieulouard où trois stratégies de gestion des risques liés aux inondations sont comparées (respect des prescriptions du plan de prévention des risques d’inondations pour la construction de tout nouveau bâtiment, réduction du niveau de l’aléa par la construction d’une digue, réduction de la vulnérabilité de tous les bâtiments en zone inondable par des dispositifs de protection individuelle). Les résultats permettent d’illustrer l’opérationnalité de la méthodologie de dégager des perspectives de recherche / Natural hazard risk management is a major strategic challenge for territorial authorities because of the potential adverse effects on their development that arise from the occurrence of such a kind of risks. With a view to sustainably managing these risks, the development of multicriteria decision-support methods and tools to evaluate the sustainability of risk management strategies is an interesting and topical research subject. The main underlying challenges of sustainability assessment are to define a theoretical framework that will enable assessing the sustainability, and to take into account inherent uncertainties that could derive from various sources (input data, methodological choices, dynamics of the context, etc.), and that could potentially influence the relevance of assessment results. Hence, there is a need to develop a methodology for handling uncertainties in the decision-making process in order to provide decision-makers with the most relevant results. The present research introduces an overall decision-support methodology for assessing the sustainability of risk management strategies that relies on the concept of sustainable development and includes a set of criteria and indicators for reporting on the technical, economic, societal, environmental as well as institutional outcomes of the strategies. Data uncertainties are quantified using probabilistic (Monte Carlo simulations) or possibilistic (possibility theory) approach, and are propagated along the evaluation process through interval arithmetic operations. Beyond that, a computational tool was designed to simulate, in a deterministic or uncertain way, various types of flood damages at a municipality scale. These contributions were applied to a case study regarding flood risk management in Dieulouard, which consists of comparing three management strategies (respecting constructive constraints for new buildings in hazard prone areas fixed by the flood risks prevention plan, constructing a dyke as a collective defence infrastructure, implementing individual protective measures for all buildings in hazard prone areas). This application demonstrates the practicality of the methodology, and highlights prospects for future works

Cette thèse aide à approfondir les connaissances sur les différentes sources d’incertitude dans l’évaluation économique du risque inondation. Elle explore plusieurs disciplines afin d’analyser l’impact des stratégies utilisées pour modéliser l’aléa inondation et la vulnérabilité d’un territoire, sur l’évaluation des dommages potentiels. On a mesuré la variabilité des estimations en fonction des bases de données, modèles, méthodes et échelles considérés pour : analyser la probabilité des inondations (hydrologie) ; modéliser et cartographier l’aléa inondation (hydraulique) ; caractériser la vulnérabilité des enjeux et leur susceptibilité à subir des dommages (génie civil, géographie et économie de l’environnement). Les analyses et méthodes développées devront appuyer la prise en compte d’incertitudes, la détermination de priorités et l’optimisation de la distribution des ressources entre les différents modules de l’évaluation. Afin d’explorer un degré de complexité supplémentaire d’analyse de risque, nous avons développé une méthode d’analyse de la vulnérabilité systémique des réseaux d’infrastructure en lien avec leur résilience. / This thesis aims at exploring different sources of uncertainty related to the economic analysis of the flood risk. It embraces several fields of knowledge in order to determine how the selection of strategies used to model flood hazard and assess the vulnerability of a territory may affect damage potential estimations. We measured the variability of damage estimations as a function of the datasets, methods, models and scales considered to: analyse the probability of floods (hydrology); model and map flood hazard (hydraulics); assess the vulnerability and susceptibility of properties to floods (civil engineering, geography and environmental economics). The methods and analyses developed here should bring support for practitioners in the investigation of uncertainties, determination of evaluation priorities and optimisation of the distribution of resources between the different modules of the evaluation process. In order to explore a second level of complexity of flood risk evaluations, we developed a method for analysing the systemic vulnerability of infrastructure networks, in relation with their resilience.