Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Wisconsin--Madison, 1981. / Typescript. Vita. eContent provider-neutral record in process. Description based on print version record. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 319-333).

Thesis (M.Sc.). / Written for the Dept. of Earth and Planetary Sciences. Title from title page of PDF (viewed 2008/05/14). Includes bibliographical references.

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2004. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Although natural gas is utilised as a major source of energy in the world, in the past it has made a negligible contribution to the primary energy needs of Mozambique, Namibia and South Africa. This deviation from the rest of the world is in spite of known natural gas reserves in Mozambique, as well as off the coast of Namibia and South Africa. The reasons why natural gas is not a primary energy source of note in Southern Africa relate to the fact that cheap coal has always been available in abundance in South Africa, past exploration activities were focused on finding crude oil and regional conflicts prevented the development of the available natural reserves. The current interest in natural gas as a source of energy relates to the environmental advantages of natural gas over coal and crude oil, as well as the stated objective of the governments of Namibia and South Africa to diversify the energy supply to these countries The purpose of this study was to determine the economic impact of establishing a natural gasbased industry in Mozambique, Namibia and South Africa. To this end it was necessary to estimate the potential size of the natural gas reserves available in Southern Africa. It was also necessary to calculate the economic value to be added by utilising the few technologies applicable to Southern Africa to consume the natural gas. Based on the economic value added, it was recommended that initiatives to develop the available natural gas resources in Southern Africa should continue. When developing a natural gas-based industry, care must be taken to ensure that a balanced supply chain is established. The principle of a supply chain holds that there must be balanced growth through all the links of the supply chain. The principle of a supply chain highlights the balance to be played in developing the upstream segment as well as the downstream segment of a natural gas industry. Excessive rewards for risks taken by developers in the upstream segment of a natural gas supply chain will be to detriment of encouraging new consumers for natural gas. Significant efforts have been made to establish a regulatory framework in Mozambique, Namibia and South Africa to facilitate a balanced development of the available natural gas resources. There are however areas where the established regulatory framework does not adhere to these requirements and must therefore be reviewed. Several initiatives must also be launched to establish large volume anchor consumers for natural gas. These initiative include increased access to foreign capital as well as a pricing mechanism promoting the long-term development of natural gas resources Once large volume anchor consumers have been established, is will be a simple matter to grow the natural gas industry by adding smaller consumers to the established distribution infrastructure. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Alhoewel natuurlike gas 'n belangrike bron van energie is vir die res van die wêreld, het natuurlike gas in die verlede 'n weglaatbare breukdeel van die primêre energiebehoeftes van Mosambiek, Namibië en Suid-Afrika voorsien. Hierdie verskil teenoor die res van die wêreld is ten spyte daarvan dat daar ontdekte natuurlike gasreserwes in Mosambiek sowel as in Namibiese en Suid-Afrikaanse gebiedswaters was. Die redes hoekom natuurlike gas nie 'n belangrike bron van primêre energie in Suidelike Afrika is nie, is te wyte aan die feit dat goedkoop steenkool nog altyd in oorvloed beskikbaar was in Suid-Afrika; dat eksplorasie aktiwiteite gefokus het op ruolie eerder as natuurlike gas en dat streekskonflikte verhoed het dat die beskikbare natuurlike gasbronne ontwikkel kon word. Die huidige belangstelling in natuurlike gas as 'n bron van energie is te wyte aan die omgewingsvoordele wat natuurlike gas inhou bo steenkool en ru-olie, sowel as die verklaarde beleid van die Namibiese en Suid-Afrikaanse regerings om die energieverskaffing aan hierdie lande te versprei tussen verskillende bronne. Die doel van hierdie studie was om die ekonomiese effek te bereken wat die onwikkeling van 'n natuurlike gasgebaseerde industrie in Mosambiek, Namibië en Suid-Afrika teweeg kan bring. Om die ekonomiese effek te bereken moes 'n skatting gemaak word van die verwagte grootte van beskibare natuurlike gasvelde in Suidelike Afrika. Dit was ook nodig om die ekonomiese toegevoegde waarde te bereken deur gebruik te maak van die beskikbare tegnologie, van toepassing op Suidelike Afrika, wat natuurlike gas kan verbruik. Gebaseer op die ekonomiese toegevoegde waarde is dit aanbeveel dat die pogings om die beskikbare natuurlike gasbronne in Suidelike Afrika te ontwikkel, moet voortgaan. Wanneer 'n natuurlike gas-gebaseerde industrie ontwikkel word, is dit belangrik dat 'n gebalanseerde verskaffingslyn geskep moet word. Die beginsel van 'n verskaffinglyn is dat daar eweredige groei in al die onderskeie komponente van die verskaffingslyn moet wees. Die beginsel van'n verskaffingslyn beklemtoon die balans wat gehandhaaf moet word tussen die stroom-op en stroom-af segmente van 'n natuurlike gas industrie. Oormatige beloning vir risiko's deur ontwikkelaars in the stroom-op segment van die natuurlike gasverskaffingslyn sal tot nadeel wees van nuwe verbruikers in die stroom-af segment. Daadwerlike pogings is aangewend om 'n regulatoriese raamwerk te skep binne Mosambiek, Namibië en Suid-Afrika sodat 'n gebalanseerde ontwikkeling van die beskikbare natuurlike gasbronne kan geskied. Daar is egter areas waar die regulatoriese raamwerk nie aan die vereistes voldoen nie en daarom sal dit hersien moet word. Verskeie aksies sal ook geloods moet word om hoë volume ankerkliënte van natuurlike gas te vestig. Hierdie aksies sluit verhoogde toegang tot buitelandse kapitaal, sowel as die ontwikkeling van 'n prysmeganisme wat die langtermynontwikkeling van die natuurlike gasbronne ten doel het. Sodra 'n hoë volume ankerkliënt gevestig is, is dit 'n eenvoudige aksie om groei in die natuurlike gas industrie te bewerkstellig deur kleiner kliënte by die bestaande verspreidingsinfrastruktuur te voeg.

Submitted to School of Chemical and Metallurgical Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and the Built Environment, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa 24 August 2016 / The recent significant discoveries of gas in Mozambique could provide a much needed solution to the South African electricity crisis, but at what cost? This research report seeks to determine the economic viability of utilising Mozambican Gas to produce electricity by using data from the Integrated Resource Plan 2010-2030 Update of 2013 in a levelised cost of electricity model. The Mozambican gas fields are yet to be developed and the final price at which gas will be available is unclear, but a price range determined by ICF international in a study for the World Bank is assumed for the purposes of the study, with the results yielding a range levelised cost of energy. The results of the levelised cost determine that Mozambican gas can be utilised to provide an economical solution to the south African electricity crisis, but the price at which gas is available will determine the type of generation, either peaking power, midmerit and or baseload generation. / MT2017

The importance of the Hotelling Valuation Principle (HVP) in economic study lies in its ability to examine and drive the decision of how much of a non-renewable natural resource to produce now versus how much to conserve for future generations - the root of natural resource policy, conservation, regulation, and taxation. Hotelling (1931) assumes that net price (selling price less cost per unit of production) will grow at the discount rate, which in a deterministic setting implies that reserve value is equal to current net price. However, the application of this ideal theory to the oil and gas industry may be difficult.<p>The oil and gas industry is influenced by government regulation, potential monopolistic forces, and well production characteristics - each of which violate the assumptions of Hotellings (1931) basic theory. How these violations affect the HVP is an open question. Most have the effect of limiting current supply, and thus driving prices higher than they would be in a perfectly competitive market. On the other hand, at least in the Canadian context, government regulation tends to increase costs, whereas technological advancement tends to reduce costs. The net result of these effects on future net prices and their discounted value, and therefore the effect on the HVP, is not clear a priori.<p>Another problem relating Hotellings (1931) basic theory to the oil and gas industry lies in the stochastic nature of a firms future net prices and extraction quantities, the product of which gives the firms future cash flows. Correlation between quantity and net price may result from expanding production when prices are high and reducing production when prices are low. Of course such correlation will affect the expected cash flows, and therefore firm value. Or, in other words, the ability to adjust production quantity provides real options for oil and gas firms which may add value.<p>Previous tests of the HVP on oil and gas reserves have utilized data that may contain confounding information that results in unreliable conclusions. The two major deficiencies include using (1) acquisition values, which utilize basin-average rather than firm specific net price data, and (2) conventional oil and gas company market valuations, which incorporate additional management exploration expertise value beyond the reserves value.<p>This study contributes to the literature by providing a more definitive test of the HVP through the use of Canadian oil and gas royalty trusts. These pure play publicly traded entities are focused on production rather than exploration and essentially remediate the deficiencies found in previous literature. Additionally, I include an ancillary variable to proxy real option value and control variables for firm characteristics such as oil weighting (proportion of oil relative to natural gas reserves), reserve quality (proportion of proven producing reserves relative to proven non-producing reserves), and firm size (based on enterprise value). This gives the reader a better understanding of value drivers in the Canadian oil and gas royalty trust sector and how they relate to the HVP.<p>My study generally fails to find support for the HVP. In particular, the results indicate that the HVP overestimates reserve value. This suggests that market participants expect net prices to grow at a rate significantly lower than the fair cost of capital, and production constraints limiting the extraction rate are binding. I do find that the real option proxy explains a significant amount of the difference between the value observed and the value predicted by the HVP. This differs markedly from what previous literature on the HVP applied to market data for the oil and gas industry documents. Each of these papers fails to reject the HVP. The fact that I generally find the value to be lower than that predicted by the HVP is not surprising given the previous literature using market data to test it. Since these studies use conventional oil and gas companies, which likely overvalue reserves because of an exploration premium, finding support for the HVP likely means that royalty trusts will likely correspond to a value lower than that predicted. The difference could account for the exploration premium. On the other hand, when I use the log-linear specification over the second, more volatile sub-sample, I also fail to reject Hotellings theoretical value, which is consistent with previous literature using market data.

The importance of the Hotelling Valuation Principle (HVP) in economic study lies in its ability to examine and drive the decision of how much of a non-renewable natural resource to produce now versus how much to conserve for future generations - the root of natural resource policy, conservation, regulation, and taxation. Hotelling (1931) assumes that net price (selling price less cost per unit of production) will grow at the discount rate, which in a deterministic setting implies that reserve value is equal to current net price. However, the application of this ideal theory to the oil and gas industry may be difficult.<p>The oil and gas industry is influenced by government regulation, potential monopolistic forces, and well production characteristics - each of which violate the assumptions of Hotellings (1931) basic theory. How these violations affect the HVP is an open question. Most have the effect of limiting current supply, and thus driving prices higher than they would be in a perfectly competitive market. On the other hand, at least in the Canadian context, government regulation tends to increase costs, whereas technological advancement tends to reduce costs. The net result of these effects on future net prices and their discounted value, and therefore the effect on the HVP, is not clear a priori.<p>Another problem relating Hotellings (1931) basic theory to the oil and gas industry lies in the stochastic nature of a firms future net prices and extraction quantities, the product of which gives the firms future cash flows. Correlation between quantity and net price may result from expanding production when prices are high and reducing production when prices are low. Of course such correlation will affect the expected cash flows, and therefore firm value. Or, in other words, the ability to adjust production quantity provides real options for oil and gas firms which may add value.<p>Previous tests of the HVP on oil and gas reserves have utilized data that may contain confounding information that results in unreliable conclusions. The two major deficiencies include using (1) acquisition values, which utilize basin-average rather than firm specific net price data, and (2) conventional oil and gas company market valuations, which incorporate additional management exploration expertise value beyond the reserves value.<p>This study contributes to the literature by providing a more definitive test of the HVP through the use of Canadian oil and gas royalty trusts. These pure play publicly traded entities are focused on production rather than exploration and essentially remediate the deficiencies found in previous literature. Additionally, I include an ancillary variable to proxy real option value and control variables for firm characteristics such as oil weighting (proportion of oil relative to natural gas reserves), reserve quality (proportion of proven producing reserves relative to proven non-producing reserves), and firm size (based on enterprise value). This gives the reader a better understanding of value drivers in the Canadian oil and gas royalty trust sector and how they relate to the HVP.<p>My study generally fails to find support for the HVP. In particular, the results indicate that the HVP overestimates reserve value. This suggests that market participants expect net prices to grow at a rate significantly lower than the fair cost of capital, and production constraints limiting the extraction rate are binding. I do find that the real option proxy explains a significant amount of the difference between the value observed and the value predicted by the HVP. This differs markedly from what previous literature on the HVP applied to market data for the oil and gas industry documents. Each of these papers fails to reject the HVP. The fact that I generally find the value to be lower than that predicted by the HVP is not surprising given the previous literature using market data to test it. Since these studies use conventional oil and gas companies, which likely overvalue reserves because of an exploration premium, finding support for the HVP likely means that royalty trusts will likely correspond to a value lower than that predicted. The difference could account for the exploration premium. On the other hand, when I use the log-linear specification over the second, more volatile sub-sample, I also fail to reject Hotellings theoretical value, which is consistent with previous literature using market data.

Thesis (M. Sc.)--University of Adelaide, Dept. of Geology and Geophysics, 1993. / Includes bibliographical references.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Adelaide, National Centre for Petroleum Geology & Geophysics (NCPGG) /Dept. of Geology & Geophysics, 1993. / At head of title: "NERDDC/SENRAC Research Project." Three folded maps in pocket. Two microfiches in pocket. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 155-187).

No description available.

In the recent years, the shale gas discourse has become central to discussions about future energy supply in South Africa. In particular, the Permian black shales of the Lower Ecca Group formations in the Karoo Basin are considered potential source rocks for shale gas. The research presented in this thesis advances the understanding of the shale gas potential of mainly the Prince Albert, Whitehill and Tierberg/Collingham Formations. These shale sequences were sampled from eight deep boreholes spread across the main Karoo Basin and geochemically analysed at the GFZ - Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, Germany. Three key questions guided the study, these are: (i) what is the lithology of the sequence; (ii) where in the basin do the shale sequences attain maximum thickness at optimum depth i.e. beneath 1000-1500m; and (iii) and their shale characteristics. To evaluate these, borehole core logging, petrology and organic geochemistry were used extensively. Petrology involved the use of thin section, scanned electron and transmission electron microscopy for mineralogy as well as the identification of sedimentary features, organic matter and nano-scale porosity. These were coupled with standard organic geochemistry techniques such as Rock Eval. analysis, open pyrolysis gas chromatography and thermovaporisation to quantify the free gas, total organic carbon (TOC), present-day gas generative potential and kerogen type. The results show that the Whitehill Formation, away from the CFB and not intruded by dolerite, has the most potential for shale gas. Microscopic studies of this pyritic black shale reveal the occurrence of porous amorphous matter, indicating thermal maturity within the gas generation zone (i.e. > 1.1 percent Ro, 120ºC). The TOC content is consistently high within the Whitehill (exceeding industry requirement of 2 percent), attaining maximum of 7.3 percent. The highest yields of free and desorbed gas, especially methane, were emitted within this formation (S1 and nC1 peaks); mostly within its dolomitic units. In addition, dissolution porosity within dolomite units of the Whitehill Formation was identified as the predominant type of porosity. Thus, it is deduced that the dolomitic units of Whitehill Formation potentially contain the greatest volumes of free gas. HI values attain maximum of 25 mg HC/g TOC, whereas the OI values 26 mg CO2/g TOC. Such low HI and OI values are typically attributed to the dominance of Type IV kerogen, and consistent with overmaturity. Open pyrolysis (GC) show the main the chemical compound of the organic matter to be m-p-xylene, consistent with a mix of Type III, Type I/II and Type IV kerogen. Lithologically, the Whitehill Formation is composed of ~ 35 quartz, 13 percent feldspar, 26 percent illite and ~ 23 percent dolomite with variable amounts of pyrite. The dominance of quartz is directly proportional to the brittleness of the rock. Thus it can be deduced that the Whitehill Formation is relatively brittle and therefore fraccable. Burial trends indicate increasing depth (from ground level) to the top of the Whitehill Formation towards the south and south-eastern portion of the basin. It is in the southern region where thicknesses of this black shale exceeding 50m occur at depths more than 1500m; 1000m beneath fresh water aquifers. It therefore concluded that Whitehill Formation in the southern portion of Karoo Basin, but away from the thermo-tectonic overprint of the Cape Orogeny, is the most probable shale gas reservoir in South Africa.