In this work bullwhip effect in the supply chains was studied and reduction of the effect was analyzed. Simulation was done with Rockwell Arena software. Eight different models were created using two different bullwhip reduction schemes (batching removal and information sharing) with two different ordering distributions (normal and exponential distribution). Analyzed supply chain consisted of two groups of customers, two distributors, one manufacturer and two suppliers, producing different components for manufacturer. Information processing, lead and manufacturing times where stochastic values. Analysis is based on the mean value and standard deviation of orders and inventory level. Research showed, that most effective bullwhip reduction scheme is information sharing which let to reduce supplier’s inventory level up to 90%. Also effect reduction schemes are more effective when order variability is greater. This work is primary supply chain model. Therefore author offers to continue this work and do next analysis: to analyze other order distributions’ and other stochastic model variables influence to bullwhip reduction schemes, to analyze other supply chain structures, to do mathematical evaluation.

Baigiamajame magistro darbe nagrinėjama viena iš pagrindinių tiekimo grandinių valdymo problemų ─ neapibrėžtumo efektas, didinantis įmonių veiklos sąnaudas, sandėlio lygį ir mažinantis konkurencingumą. Pagrindinis baigiamojo darbo tikslas yra pateikti galimus neapibrėžtumo efekto mažinimo būdus tiekimo grandinėse. Darbe yra analizuojama neapibrėžtumo efekto samprata, įtaka tiekimo grandinėms, identifikavimo būdai, atsiradimo priežastys ir efektą mažinančių priemonių panaudojimo efektyvumas. Išnagrinėjus teorinius ir praktinius neapibrėžtumo efekto aspektus, pateikiamos baigiamojo darbo išvados ir siūlymai. Darbą sudaro 5 dalys: įvadas, analitinė-metodinė, eksperimentinė-tiriamoji dalis, išvados ir siūlymai, literatūros sąrašas. Darbo apimtis – 62 p., 23 iliustr., 4 lent., 34 bibliografiniai šaltiniai. Atskirai pridedami darbo priedai. / The main topic of this thesis is bullwhip effect, under which influence negative factors such as increased warehouse level, demand variations, big internal expenditures and decreased competition can seriously affect efficiency of whole supply chain. The main goal of this thesis is suggest possible ways of bullwhip effect reduction in supply chain. In this is thesis author is analyzing: conceptions of bullwhip effect influence on supply chain, ways of effect identification; search for methods to decrease bullwhip effect. Main tolls of bullwhip effect reduction are: proper information sharing; reducing of shipment transportation time; using of efficient demand forecasting method; development of VMI system, and installation of up-to-date IT systems. Structure: introduction, analytical part, experiment, conclusions and suggestions, references. Thesis consist of: 62 p., 23 pictures, 4 tables, 34 bibliographical entries. Appendixes included.