Zugleich: Diss. München, 2008. / Literaturverz.

A criação da Organização dos Países Exportadores de Petróleo (OPEP) foi um marco para o mercado internacional de petróleo. Para a opinião pública a OPEP é um cartel devido aos choques do petróleo ocorridos na década de 1970, porém na literatura econômica não existe consenso sobre a OPEP ser ou não um cartel. Sob a ótica da teoria dos cartéis, esta pesquisa tem como objetivo evidenciar o papel da OPEP e verificar se a mesma exerce poder de mercado, demonstrando aspectos históricos que desencadearam na sua criação e suas principais ações ao longo do tempo. No primeiro artigo, através de uma análise fundamentada na distinção entre os países da OPEP e os Não-OPEP, foram utilizados indicadores sobre o mercado internacional de petróleo, destacando os principais detentores das reservas provadas, os produtores, os consumidores, a evolução dos preços, o comércio internacional, as emissões de CO2 geradas a partir da combustão do combustível fóssil e a ascensão dos biocombustíveis. Os resultados mostraram que a dotação natural é fator determinante na produção e no comércio internacional de petróleo, e que os países membros da OPEP são altamente dependentes das divisas geradas das exportações de petróleo para sustentação de importações de outros bens. Verificou-se que os países da OPEP vêm aumentando seu consumo interno de petróleo, gerando maiores emissões de CO2, o que reforça ainda mais a dependência do petróleo como principal fonte na matriz energética destes países. Neste cenário, os biocombustíveis vêm ganhando espaço principalmente nos países Não-OPEP. A OPEP é uma Organização formada por países, assim seus objetivos vão além da maximização de lucros. Entretanto, as diferenças macroeconômicas entre os membros relacionadas aos diferentes regimes políticos, com objetivos destoantes de curto e de longo prazo, são fatores limitadores na ação coordenada entre os membros. No segundo artigo desta pesquisa, através do modelo estático da Nova Organização Industrial Empírica (New Empirical Industrial Organization - NEIO) foi identificado o grau de poder de mercado no comércio internacional de petróleo no período de janeiro de 2003 até março de 2015. Os resultados mostraram que o mercado internacional de petróleo está distante da estrutura de monopólio ou cartel perfeito, e não são estatisticamente descartadas as hipóteses de competição via Cournot e de competição perfeita. / The establishment of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) was a historic milestone for the international oil market. For the public opinion the OPEC is considered as a cartel due to the oil shocks in the 1970s, but in the economic literature there is no consensus if OPEC really acts as cartel. However, we use the theory of cartels to highlight the role of OPEC and identify if there is market power exercise in the international oil market. We present historical aspects that led in OPEC creation and its main actions over time. In the first chapter, we use an analysis based on the distinction between the OPEC and non-OPEC countries. We identify the main countries which holds proven reserves, the major producers, consumers, the trend of price, the international trade, the CO2 emissions generated by the fossil fuel combustion and the rise of biofuels production. The results indicate that the natural endowment is a key factor to the production and international trade of oil, and OPEC members are highly dependent on oil exports revenue to sustain other goods imports. OPEC countries increased domestic oil consumption, generating more CO2 emissions, which demonstrates the increase of oil dependency in the energy matrix of these countries. According to the current scenario, the biofuels production has increased mainly in non-OPEC countries. OPEC is an organization formed by countries and their goals are not only to maximize profits, and so, OPEC is a political union that has stability over the years. However, macroeconomic differences among members related to different political regimes with different shortterm and long-term goals that are limiting factors for coordinated action. Therefore, according to the theory of the cartel formation and sustainability, OPEC has difficulties to fix prices or quantity on the international oil market, the Organization does not behave like a cartel most of the time. In the second chapter the static model of the New Empirical Industrial Organization (NEIO) is used to identify the degree of market power in the international oil market during the period from January 2003 to March 2015. The results indicated that the international oil market is not characterized by a cartel, but are not statistically rejected the hypothesis of Cournot competition nor perfect competition.

A criação da Organização dos Países Exportadores de Petróleo (OPEP) foi um marco para o mercado internacional de petróleo. Para a opinião pública a OPEP é um cartel devido aos choques do petróleo ocorridos na década de 1970, porém na literatura econômica não existe consenso sobre a OPEP ser ou não um cartel. Sob a ótica da teoria dos cartéis, esta pesquisa tem como objetivo evidenciar o papel da OPEP e verificar se a mesma exerce poder de mercado, demonstrando aspectos históricos que desencadearam na sua criação e suas principais ações ao longo do tempo. No primeiro artigo, através de uma análise fundamentada na distinção entre os países da OPEP e os Não-OPEP, foram utilizados indicadores sobre o mercado internacional de petróleo, destacando os principais detentores das reservas provadas, os produtores, os consumidores, a evolução dos preços, o comércio internacional, as emissões de CO2 geradas a partir da combustão do combustível fóssil e a ascensão dos biocombustíveis. Os resultados mostraram que a dotação natural é fator determinante na produção e no comércio internacional de petróleo, e que os países membros da OPEP são altamente dependentes das divisas geradas das exportações de petróleo para sustentação de importações de outros bens. Verificou-se que os países da OPEP vêm aumentando seu consumo interno de petróleo, gerando maiores emissões de CO2, o que reforça ainda mais a dependência do petróleo como principal fonte na matriz energética destes países. Neste cenário, os biocombustíveis vêm ganhando espaço principalmente nos países Não-OPEP. A OPEP é uma Organização formada por países, assim seus objetivos vão além da maximização de lucros. Entretanto, as diferenças macroeconômicas entre os membros relacionadas aos diferentes regimes políticos, com objetivos destoantes de curto e de longo prazo, são fatores limitadores na ação coordenada entre os membros. No segundo artigo desta pesquisa, através do modelo estático da Nova Organização Industrial Empírica (New Empirical Industrial Organization - NEIO) foi identificado o grau de poder de mercado no comércio internacional de petróleo no período de janeiro de 2003 até março de 2015. Os resultados mostraram que o mercado internacional de petróleo está distante da estrutura de monopólio ou cartel perfeito, e não são estatisticamente descartadas as hipóteses de competição via Cournot e de competição perfeita. / The establishment of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) was a historic milestone for the international oil market. For the public opinion the OPEC is considered as a cartel due to the oil shocks in the 1970s, but in the economic literature there is no consensus if OPEC really acts as cartel. However, we use the theory of cartels to highlight the role of OPEC and identify if there is market power exercise in the international oil market. We present historical aspects that led in OPEC creation and its main actions over time. In the first chapter, we use an analysis based on the distinction between the OPEC and non-OPEC countries. We identify the main countries which holds proven reserves, the major producers, consumers, the trend of price, the international trade, the CO2 emissions generated by the fossil fuel combustion and the rise of biofuels production. The results indicate that the natural endowment is a key factor to the production and international trade of oil, and OPEC members are highly dependent on oil exports revenue to sustain other goods imports. OPEC countries increased domestic oil consumption, generating more CO2 emissions, which demonstrates the increase of oil dependency in the energy matrix of these countries. According to the current scenario, the biofuels production has increased mainly in non-OPEC countries. OPEC is an organization formed by countries and their goals are not only to maximize profits, and so, OPEC is a political union that has stability over the years. However, macroeconomic differences among members related to different political regimes with different shortterm and long-term goals that are limiting factors for coordinated action. Therefore, according to the theory of the cartel formation and sustainability, OPEC has difficulties to fix prices or quantity on the international oil market, the Organization does not behave like a cartel most of the time. In the second chapter the static model of the New Empirical Industrial Organization (NEIO) is used to identify the degree of market power in the international oil market during the period from January 2003 to March 2015. The results indicated that the international oil market is not characterized by a cartel, but are not statistically rejected the hypothesis of Cournot competition nor perfect competition.

This study presents an observation of the impact of Opec announcements on the behavior of sector indexes returns of the Stockholm stock market. It looks at the effects of the announcements on the stock returns of three sectors indices of theStockholm stock market: Energy, Telecommunications and Financial using the general market index return (OMX Stockholm 30) as the explanatory variable. The time period analyzed is limited to the years of 2005 to 2007 when markets worldwide were taken by euphoria and panic caused by the anticipation of the upcoming financial crisis given that it has been well proved that such events do cause a substantial effect on stock prices. In order to estimate the reaction of the sector index returns over Opec announcements, the author uses the event studies and constructs an extended version of the CAPM model by introducing dummy variables for each day of the set of announcements over the event window. It is used stationary time series data and the returns on the three sector indices were subdivided in an event window of 5 days around the announcement dates in continuous intervals of 3 years according to the Stockholm stock market trading days. As to improve the results obtained with the CAPM model, the author uses the Cumulative Abnormal Returns (CAR) which adds all the coefficients of the dummy variables which are the returns in excess of what is expected. The empirical findings for the event study reveal that none of the dummy variable coefficients were significant which indicate that none of the sector indexes is sensitive to the announcements. For the CAR results, the Telecommunication was the only sector that responded to news. Most likely because the general market index OMXST30 has proved to create extra returns around these dates. That is probably the reason that the three sector indexes could not produce significant additional response.

Ideologies, intellectually and religiously driven, color both politics and economics. The relationship between government and the governed, human rights and the rule of law all are affected by such ideologies. However, unless humans are willing to change dramatically lifestyles honed in hundreds of years of historic developments, energy and energy abundance are arguably the most critical needs of modern society. In many ways energy has transcended ideology although there are still unrepentant ideologues advocating otherwise. It was this realization, augmented by a few events, that brought about the writing of The Color of Oil. The authors felt a need to combat popular errors being promulgated by the media in an area of such great importance to the entire human enterprise: Energy. A nonsensical 1999 cover story by the usually reliable Economist magazine provided the last straw. Someone had to set the record straight. But the dour-to-hostile climate that surrounded oil and energy at the turn of the century presented certain challenges to getting the work published. As it turned out, the unique qualifications of a science and technology journalist, the author of this thesis, played a key role in making the publication a reality, and then a phenomenon of sorts. In some ways, The Color of Oil suggests a meaningful new role for science and technology journalism and journalists in a media environment driven by movie stars and media profits. The book was produced on a short timeline and with limited resources. The book's message has played a role in key political decisions in the United States and around the world; as a direct result of the book, the authors were invited and participated extensively in development of energy policy in Texas and at the national level. It has effected billions of dollars of commercial enterprise, providing as it did the blueprint for development of Cheniere Energy, Inc., a $2 billion Houston company that today is one of North America's premier LNG receiving companies. And testimonies from readers of The Color of Oil suggest that the book has produced meaningful personal wealth for many of its 30,000-plus readers.

Bachelor-Arbeit Univ. St. Gallen, 2004.

This thesis will enable the reader to see how applications of game theory can help understand the development in oil market. Firstly, the thesis will introduce to the reader the foundations of game theory, a branch of microeconomics studying strategic interaction. Special focus will be put on the theory of oligopoly, the most important collusive and non-collusive models of oligopoly and their similarities and differences. Secondly, the thesis will show the reader how these theoretic models can be applied to the past development within the global oil industry, most prominently on the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Finally, the thesis will present possible applications of game theory and some of the models to the oil market after the price decrease which started in 2014. This would help the reader assess the potential outcomes of the current crisis and possible development in the future.

This master´s thesis deals with trade with crude oil and its impact on the world economy. Everyone, who wants to start to trade with crude oil, should find out basic terminology and information about crude oil that is characterized in the first chapter. The hunt for oil started many years ago, therefore the history is also mentioned in this master´s thesis. The second chapter focuses on the world trade with crude oil. Territorial structure and trade flows are described in this part of the master´s thesis. Nevertheless, the crude oil also has an impact on the world economy and economies of single states. The third chapter analyses states, where the inhabitants live beyond means of people from other countries but these states are so depended on crude oil that if this trade stopped, these countries would go bankrupt. However, there are also exceptions. Even though, there are states that have huge sources of crude oil, they still have to deal with financial problems. The forth chapter characterizes the trade with crude oil of the Czech Republic because it is a net importer of crude oil and the last chapter focuses on new trends in crude oil such as shale oil and trading at a crude oil market.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of OPEC oil production cut announcements on stock returns of specified companies listed on the London Stock Exchange. Two categories are constructed from stocks of companies operating in oil, gas and mining sectors and companies operating in pharmaceutical, industrial engineering and industrial transportation sectors, respectively. The study is based on the theories of EMH and findings of behavioural finance and applies a CAPM model in the context of an event study methodology. Our findings show that in four out of five cases OPEC production cut announcements have significant effects on stocks in the chosen categories around the releaseof a supply cut announcement. The difference between post-announcement CAARs of the constructed categories is significant on one occasion. Organisations and investors can use these findings to better understand the impact of OPEC news announcements on the stock performance of companies in specified sectors.

As the public becomes more concerned with the natural environment, one of the major topics discussed is the oil. Since there is no true source of knowledge how long the oil can continue to be extracted, it is interesting to know how long the world can benefit from such as scarce resource. Instead of idly watching as oil production decreases with time, which pre-measures could be taken in order to minimize a negative impact on an economy? The UAE is a thriving oil rich countries which for the past 30 years have experienced a vast oil wealth. Even though the oil gave wealth to the UAE, they should avoid any future oil dependency since it could negatively affect its now flourishing economy. Therefore, for the UAE to continue growing in the future it is in the best interest for the government to focus on a diversifying strategy that promotes the non-oil economy. By referring to concepts and theories of previous research in this field such as the Solow growth model, Resource curse and Dutch disease the authors find that the UAE had managed to diversify or not. Three sectors in different periods between 1970 and 2007 were measured: The oil sector, the non-oil sector and the government sector. Diversification changes means a decreasing dependency of the oil sector to the non-oil sector while the latter instead depends more on the government sector. Using British Petroleum (2008) and United Nations (2008) as sources, data was collected in order to draw a time-series regression analysis and test empirically for these diversification trends. The results for all periods confirmed that the UAE have indeed diversified and it could thus be observed that it started its successful strategy already in the 1970s. With the right government policy investments and the stability in the union, the UAE prevented from becoming dependent on oil and thereby not crowding out its important non-oil economy. / Med en ökad allmän medvetenhet angående naturmiljön så är oljan bland det mest omtalande temat. Eftersom inget vet exakt hur länge oljan kan utvinnas, är det intressant att veta hur länge världen kan förlita sig på en sådan begränsad resurs. Finns det förebyggande medel för att minska en negativ verkan på ekonomin istället för att passivt bevittna en sjunkande oljeproduktion? Förenta Arabemiraten (FAE) är en framgångsrik union som under de senaste 30 åren har åtnjutit en omfattande oljerikedom. Trots att oljan lade grunden för tillväxten i FAE, så börs unionen undvika sitt oljeberoende eftersom den negativt kan påverka den nuvarande blomstrande ekonomin. Således, för att bibehålla tillväxten i FAE för framtiden, borde det vara i statens största intresse att fokusera på en differentierings-strategi som främjar icke-oljans ekonomi. För att veta om FAE faktiskt har differentierat sig eller inte, används koncept och teorier för tidigare forskning kring områdets som t.ex. Solows tillväxtmodel, Resursförbannelsen och holländska sjukan. Tre sektorer mättes i olika perioder mellan 1970-2007: oljesektorn, icke-sektorn och statssektorn. Icke-olje sektorn förväntas minska oljeberoendet samt öka beroendet av statssektorn vilket resulterar i en differentieringstrend i ekonomin. Genom källor från British Petroleum (2008) och Förenta Nationerna (2008)  har data insamlats för att empiriskt testa en tidsserie regression och se förändringar mellan sektorerna. Under alla perioder i FAE blev en differentieringstrend bekräftad och man kunde därför se att denna framgångsrika strategi redan åtogs i 1970-talet. Med effektiva investeringar i den offentliga sektorn samt en hållbar stabilitet i unionen, undvek FAE ett oljeberoende och därmed främjade icke-olje ekonomin.