This thesis deals with the risk management of savings accounts. Savings accounts are non- maturing liabilities bearing two embedded options. The first option is the client's right to withdraw deposits on notice. The second option is a bank's right to change the deposit rate on savings accounts whenever it wishes. This in practice means that a fierce competition may arise as banks can quickly react to competitor's change in the deposit rate. The embedded characteristics make the risk management of savings accounts challenging. We identify five key risks of savings accounts: liquidity risk, market risk (interest rate risk), systemic risk, reputational risk, and model risk. The thesis focuses on the interest rate risk and the method of replicating portfolios, which is a standard technique of the estimation of non-maturing liabilities' interest rate risk employed by banks. Using replicating portfolio approach, we derive that savings accounts are risky liabilities. We provide evidence that high deposit rates offered on numerous savings accounts in the Czech Republic have not been consistent with low market rates since January 2012, at least. We show that unsustainable deposit rates combined with competition among banks will lead to capital losses in some banks when market rates increase. JEL...

Submitted by Ana Garcia Checoli (anagchecoli@gmail.com) on 2013-12-06T19:14:09Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação MPE - ANA CHECOLI V12 FINAL.pdf: 996393 bytes, checksum: a39ec6b8c4c8eb994d442d402e2c1297 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzinei Teles Garcia Garcia (suzinei.garcia@fgv.br) on 2013-12-10T17:28:13Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação MPE - ANA CHECOLI V12 FINAL.pdf: 996393 bytes, checksum: a39ec6b8c4c8eb994d442d402e2c1297 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-12-10T17:31:31Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação MPE - ANA CHECOLI V12 FINAL.pdf: 996393 bytes, checksum: a39ec6b8c4c8eb994d442d402e2c1297 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-12-03 / Commercial banks have as main sources of funds demand deposits, savings and time deposits. These liabilities have daily liquidity, ie, may be withdrawn at any time by their owners. The outcome and risk management of these non-maturing liabilities is a difficult task for financial institutions. This study aims to identify the transfer price of these liabilities, especially for automatic applications. As a result, it´s presented a transfer price for the core and the non-core portion of the automatic applications and also the revenue funding paid by treasury to the commercial channels. The formula used for calculating the transfer price of non-maturing liabilities follows the Central Bank rules, and can be used by any commercial financial institution in Brazil. In order to identify the maturity the Nonmaturation model was applied and transfer price is calculated by the Matched Maturity Funds Transfer Marginal Price ( MMMFTP ) model . / Os bancos comerciais têm como principais fontes de recursos os depósitos à vista, poupança e depósitos a prazo. Estes passivos têm liquidez diária, ou seja, podem ser sacados a qualquer momento por seus titulares. O gerenciamento do resultado e risco destes passivos sem vencimento é uma difícil tarefa para as instituições financeiras. Este estudo busca identificar o preço de transferência destes passivos, em especial das aplicações automáticas. Como resultado, são apresentados preços de transferência para a parcela estável e para a parcela instável das aplicações automáticas e a receita de funding paga pela tesouraria aos canais comerciais . A fórmula utilizada para o cálculo do preço de transferência de passivos sem vencimento considera as regras de exigibilidade do BACEN, e pode ser utilizada por qualquer instituição financeira comercial do Brasil. Para a identificação da maturidade foi utilizado o modelo de Nonmaturation e o preço de transferência é calculado pelo modelo de Matched Maturity Marginal Funds Transfer Price (MMMFTP).

The objective of this report is to carry out a pre-study and develop a framework for how the liquidity and interest rate risk of a bank's demand deposits can be modeled. This is done by first calibrating a Vasicek short rate model and then deriving models for the bank's deposit volume and deposit rate using multiple regression. The volume model and the deposit rate model are used to determine the liquidity and interest rate risk, which is done separately. The liquidity risk is determined by a liquidity quantile which estimates the minimum deposit volume that is expected to remain in the bank over a given time period. The interest rate risk is quantified by an arbitrage-free valuation of the demand deposit which can be used to determine the sensitivity of the net present value of the demand deposit caused by a parallel shift in the market rates. Furthermore, an immunization and a replicating portfolio are constructed and the performances of these are tested when introducing the same parallel shifts in the market rates as in the valuation of the demand deposit. The conclusion of this thesis is that the framework for the liquidity risk management that is developed gave satisfactory results and could be used by the bank if the deposit volume is estimated on representative data and a more accurate model for the short rate is used. The interest rate risk framework did however not yield as reliable results and would be more challenging to implement as a more advanced model for the deposit rate is required. / Målet med denna rapport är att utveckla ett ramverk för att bestämma likviditets-och ränterisken som är relaterad till en banks inlåningsvolym. Detta görs genom att först ta fram en modell för korträntan via kalibrering av en Vasicek modell. Därefter utvecklas, genom multipelregression, modeller för att beskriva bankens inlåningsvolym och inlåningsränta. Dessa modeller används för att kvantifiera likviditets- och ränterisken för inlånings-volymen, vilka beräknas och presenteras separat. Likviditetsrisken bestäms genom att en likviditetskvantil tas fram, vilken estimerar den minimala inlånings-volymen som förväntas kvarstå hos banken över en given tidsperiod. Ränterisken kvantifieras med en arbitragefri värdering av inlåningen och resultatet används för att bestämma känsligheten för hur nuvärdet av inlåningsvolymen påverkas av ett parallellskifte. Utöver detta bestäms en immuniseringsportfölj samt en rep-likerande portfölj och resultatet av dessa utvärderas mot hur nuvärdet förändras givet att samma parallellskifte i ränteläget som tidigare introduceras. Slutsatsen av projektet är att det framtagna ramverket för att bestämma likviditetsrisken för inlåningen gav bra resultat och skulle kunna implementeras i dagsläget av banken, förutsatt att volymmodellen estimeras på representativ data samt att en bättre modell för korträntan används. Ramverket för att bestämma ränterisken gav dock inte lika tillförlitliga resultat och är mer utmanande att implementera då en mer avancerad modell för inlåningsräntan krävs.

Submitted by JULIO SALVADOR (jcmsal@gmail.com) on 2013-02-28T05:12:24Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao - Julio Salvador.pdf: 1362084 bytes, checksum: fbfc1ce4624c12d00ca89e9f7a442abf (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzinei Teles Garcia Garcia (suzinei.garcia@fgv.br) on 2013-02-28T12:48:44Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao - Julio Salvador.pdf: 1362084 bytes, checksum: fbfc1ce4624c12d00ca89e9f7a442abf (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-02-28T12:56:50Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao - Julio Salvador.pdf: 1362084 bytes, checksum: fbfc1ce4624c12d00ca89e9f7a442abf (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-01-30 / Non-maturing liabilities make up a large part of the funding base of financial institutions. These liabilities, such as checking and savings accounts, while allowing their depositors to withdraw the full amount of their investments at any time, the balance remain in the financial institutions for long period of time. The lack of defined contractual maturity makes the risk management a difficult task. This study analyzes the implied maturity of savings deposits through a replicating portfolio model. As a result, it’s presented structures for allocating cash flows to manage market and liquidity risk of savings deposits. / Os depósitos sem vencimento formam grande parte da base de captação das instituições financeiras. Esses passivos, depósitos à vista ou de poupança, embora permitam que seus titulares saquem a qualquer momento o montante integral de suas aplicações, permanecem nas instituições financeiras por longos períodos de tempo. A falta de maturidade contratual definida torna o gerenciamento de riscos desses produtos uma difícil tarefa. Este estudo busca analisar as maturidades implícitas dos depósitos de poupança através de um modelo de carteira replicante. Como resultado, são apresentadas estruturas para alocação de fluxos de caixa para gestão de risco de mercado e liquidez dos depósitos de poupança.

Submitted by Manuela de Albuquerque Montenegro (manuamonty@gmail.com) on 2016-02-10T17:10:15Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_Manuela_Montenegro.pdf: 902052 bytes, checksum: 9a0976ea40ce5b9c8f4612f60ad30fb4 (MD5) / Rejected by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br), reason: Manuela, boa tarde Devido às normas da ABNT, por gentileza, realizar o seguinte ajuste: - Capa: Seu nome deve constar somente no centro da página. - Onde consta São Paulo 2015, alterar o ano para 2016, pois sua apresentação ocorreu em 2016. Após alterações, realizar uma nova submissão. Att on 2016-02-11T17:23:32Z (GMT) / Submitted by Manuela de Albuquerque Montenegro (manuamonty@gmail.com) on 2016-02-11T23:44:49Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_Manuela_Montenegro.pdf: 900458 bytes, checksum: 2af727e90538f9bc04bf31e9d549e35f (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br) on 2016-02-12T19:14:43Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_Manuela_Montenegro.pdf: 900458 bytes, checksum: 2af727e90538f9bc04bf31e9d549e35f (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-02-15T11:11:16Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_Manuela_Montenegro.pdf: 900458 bytes, checksum: 2af727e90538f9bc04bf31e9d549e35f (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-01-20 / The non-maturing deposits are an important source of funding for financial institutions, and imposes a challenge on risk market and liquidity management because of the lack of contractual maturity. The depositors can withdraw the invested amount, as well as investing new amounts, without any contractual penalties. Currently, there is no regulatory standard model to measure de interest rate risk and capital requirements for this accounts. However, there are new regulatory demands that, among other things, aim to standardize the non-maturing accounts models, increasing the comparability between financial institutions risk profiles. These regulatory demands increase the need of quantitative models that defines the run-off profile of this accounts or the evolution of the deposits account volumes through time. This study proposes an approach to model the expected deposits cash flows which will enable to measure the interest rate risk and present its application under the new regulatory rules for capital requirement that are been proposed. As a result we calculate the interest rate risk and the capital requirement for a hypothetical balance sheet. / Os depósitos sem vencimento são uma importante fonte de funding das instituições financeiras, e apresentam um desafio na gestão dos riscos de juros e liquidez, por não apresentarem um vencimento definido. Os depositantes podem sacar o montante de suas aplicações, bem como aportar novos volumes, a qualquer tempo sem a incidência de penalidades. Atualmente não há um modelo regulatório padronizado para mensurar o risco de juros desses produtos, bem como seu requerimento de capital. No entanto, novas regulamentações tem surgido com o intuito de, dentre outras coisas, trazer certa padronização para a modelagem dos depósitos sem vencimento, aumentando a comparabilidade do perfil de risco entre instituições financeiras. Essas regulamentações aumentam a necessidade de modelos quantitativos que definam um perfil de run-off da carteira ou de evolução dessa carteira no tempo. Este estudo tem como objetivo propor uma abordagem para modelar os fluxos de caixa esperados dos depósitos de poupança que possibilitará calcular o risco de mercado e apresentar sua aplicação dentro das novas normas de requerimento de capital que estão sendo propostas. Como resultado calculamos o risco de mercado e requerimento de capital para um balanço teórico.