Orientador: Víctor Hugo Lachos Dávila / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Matemática Estatística e Computação Científica / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-26T02:34:17Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 GalvisSoto_DianaMilena_D.pdf: 1208980 bytes, checksum: edbc193912a2a800da4936526ed79fa3 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014 / Resumo: Dados no intervalo (0,1) geralmente representam proporções, taxas ou índices. Porém, é possível observar situações práticas onde as proporções sejam zero e/ou um, representando ausência ou presença total da característica de interesse. Nesses casos, os modelos que analisam o efeito de covariáveis, tais como a regressão beta, beta retangular e simplex não são convenientes. Com o intuito de abordar este tipo de situações, considera-se como alternativa aumentar os valores zero e/ou um ao suporte das distribuições previamente mencionadas. Nesta tese, são propostos modelos de regressão de efeitos mistos para dados de proporções aumentados de zeros e uns, os quais permitem analisar o efeito de covariáveis sobre a probabilidade de observar ausência ou presença total da característica de interesse, assim como avaliar modelos com respostas correlacionadas. A estimação dos parâmetros de interesse pode ser via máxima verossimilhança ou métodos Monte Carlo via Cadeias de Markov (MCMC). Nesta tese, será adotado o enfoque Bayesiano, o qual apresenta algumas vantagens em relação à inferência clássica, pois não depende da teoria assintótica e os códigos são de fácil implementação, através de softwares como openBUGS e winBUGS. Baseados na distribuição marginal, é possível calcular critérios de seleção de modelos e medidas Bayesianas de divergência q, utilizadas para detectar observações discrepantes / Abstract: Continuous data in the unit interval (0,1) represent, generally, proportions, rates or indices. However, zeros and/or ones values can be observed, representing absence or total presence of a carachteristic of interest. In that case, regression models that analyze the effect of covariates such as beta, beta rectangular or simplex are not appropiate. In order to deal with this type of situations, an alternative is to add the zero and/or one values to the support of these models. In this thesis and based on these models, we propose the mixed regression models for proportional data augmented by zero and one, which allow analyze the effect of covariates into the probabilities of observing absence or total presence of the interest characteristic, besides of being possivel to deal with correlated responses. Estimation of parameters can follow via maximum likelihood or through MCMC algorithms. We follow the Bayesian approach, which presents some advantages when it is compared with classical inference because it allows to estimate the parameters even in small size sample. In addition, in this approach, the implementation is straightforward and can be done using software as openBUGS or winBUGS. Based on the marginal likelihood it is possible to calculate selection model criteria as well as q-divergence measures used to detect outlier observations / Doutorado / Estatistica / Doutora em Estatística

Philosophiae Doctor - PhD / The HIV/AIDS pandemic has been a torment to the African developmental agenda, especially the Southern African Development Countries (SADC), for the past two decades. The disease and condition tends to affect the productive age groups. Children have also not been spared from the severe effects associated with the disease. The advent of antiretroviral treatment (ART) has brought a great relief to governments and patients in these regions. More people living with HIV/AIDS have experienced a boost in their survival prospects and hence their contribution to national developmental projects. Survival analysis methods are usually used in biostatistics, epidemiological modelling and clinical research to model time to event data. The most interesting aspect of this analysis comes when survival models are used to determine risk factors for the survival of patients undergoing some treatment or living with a certain disease condition. The purpose of this thesis was to determine prognostic risk factors for patients' survival whilst on ART. The study sought to highlight the risk factors that impact the survival time negatively at different survival time points. The study utilized a sample of paediatric and adult datasets from Namibia and Zimbabwe respectively. The paediatric dataset from Katutura hospital (Namibia) comprised of the adolescents and children on ART, whilst the adult dataset from Bulawayo hospital (Zimbabwe) comprised of those patients on ART in the 15 years and above age categories. All datasets used in this thesis were based on retrospective cohorts followed for some period of time. Different methods to reduce errors in parameter estimation were employed to the datasets. The proportional hazards, Bayesian proportional hazards and the censored quantile regression models were utilized in this study. The results from the proportional hazards model show that most of the variables considered were not signifcant overall. The Bayesian proportional hazards model shows us that all the considered factors had different risk profiles at the different quartiles of the survival times. This highlights that by using the proportional hazards models, we only get a fixed constant effect of the risk factors, yet in reality, the effect of risk factors differs at different survival time points. This picture was strongly highlighted by the censored quantile regression model which indicated that some variables were significant in the early periods of initiation whilst they did not significantly affect survival time at any other points in the survival time distribution. The censored quantile regression models clearly demonstrate that there are significant insights gained on the dynamics of how different prognostic risk factors affect patient survival time across the survival time distribution compared to when we use proportional hazards and Bayesian propotional hazards models. However, the advantages of using the proportional hazards framework, due to the estimation of hazard rates as well as it's application in the competing risk framework are still unassailable. The hazard rate estimation under the censored quantile regression framework is an area that is still under development and the computational aspects are yet to be incorporated into the mainstream statistical softwares. This study concludes that, with the current literature and computational support, using both model frameworks to ascertain the dynamic effects of different prognostic risk factors for survival in people living with HIV/AIDS and on ART would give the researchers more insights. These insights will then help public health policy makers to draft relevant targeted policies aimed at improving these patients' survival time on treatment.

This dissertation aims to improve the performance of existing assignment-based dynamic origin-destination (O-D) matrix estimation models to successfully apply Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) strategies for the purposes of traffic congestion relief and dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) in transportation network modeling. The methodology framework has two advantages over the existing assignment-based dynamic O-D matrix estimation models. First, it combines an initial O-D estimation model into the estimation process to provide a high confidence level of initial input for the dynamic O-D estimation model, which has the potential to improve the final estimation results and reduce the associated computation time. Second, the proposed methodology framework can automatically convert traffic volume deviation to traffic density deviation in the objective function under congested traffic conditions. Traffic density is a better indicator for traffic demand than traffic volume under congested traffic condition, thus the conversion can contribute to improving the estimation performance. The proposed method indicates a better performance than a typical assignment-based estimation model (Zhou et al., 2003) in several case studies. In the case study for I-95 in Miami-Dade County, Florida, the proposed method produces a good result in seven iterations, with a root mean square percentage error (RMSPE) of 0.010 for traffic volume and a RMSPE of 0.283 for speed. In contrast, Zhou’s model requires 50 iterations to obtain a RMSPE of 0.023 for volume and a RMSPE of 0.285 for speed. In the case study for Jacksonville, Florida, the proposed method reaches a convergent solution in 16 iterations with a RMSPE of 0.045 for volume and a RMSPE of 0.110 for speed, while Zhou’s model needs 10 iterations to obtain the best solution, with a RMSPE of 0.168 for volume and a RMSPE of 0.179 for speed. The successful application of the proposed methodology framework to real road networks demonstrates its ability to provide results both with satisfactory accuracy and within a reasonable time, thus establishing its potential usefulness to support dynamic traffic assignment modeling, ITS systems, and other strategies.

The aim of this thesis is to evaluate the performance of the company Philip Morris ČR. The evaluation is done for years 2006 to 2011. The first theoretical part describes methods and principles which are used in practical part. All information in this part have been obtained from literature. The financial analysis in the second part contains horizontal and vertical analysis of the balance sheet and the statement of income, the ration indicators, the balance rules, creditworthy and bankruptcy models, Du Pont analysis, analysis of the Economic Value Added, and company comparisons. In the conclusion, the overall summary is carried out and possible recommendations that could lead to improvements are mentioned.

Orientador: Djalma de Carvalho Moreira Filho / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Ciências Médicas / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-26T22:55:22Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Ferraz_RosemeiredeOlanda_D.pdf: 2711370 bytes, checksum: b4966f4c4ea3b88daffa54c0576bd307 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015 / Resumo: O objetivo deste estudo é identificar os fatores associados ao tempo de sobrevida do câncer de mama, como idade, estadiamento e extensão do tumor, utilizando modelos de riscos proporcionais de Cox e de riscos competitivos de Fine-Gray. E também propor um modelo de regressão paramétrico para ajustar o tempo de sobrevida na presença dos riscos competitivos. É um estudo de coorte retrospectivo de base-populacional referente a 524 mulheres diagnosticadas com câncer de mama no período de 1993 a 1995, acompanhadas até 2011, residentes no município de Campinas/SP. Um ponto de corte para a variável contínua da idade foi escolhido utilizando-se modelos de Cox. Nos ajustes de modelos simples e múltiplo de Fine-Gray e de Cox, a idade não foi significativa quando o óbito por câncer de mama foi o evento de interesse. As curvas de sobrevivências estimadas por Kaplan-Meier evidenciaram diferenças expressivas nas probabilidades comparando-se os óbitos por câncer de mama e por riscos competitivos. As curvas de sobrevida por câncer de mama não apresentaram diferenças significativas quando comparadas as categorias de idades, segundo teste de log rank. Os modelos de Fine-Gray e Cox identificaram praticamente as mesmas covariáveis influenciando no tempo de sobrevida para ambos eventos de interesse, óbitos por câncer de mama e óbitos por riscos competitivos. Foram comparados os modelos exponencial, de Weibull e lognormal com o modelo gama generalizada e conclui-se que o modelo de regressão de Weibull foi o mais adequado para ajustar o tempo de sobrevida na presença dos riscos competitivos, conforme resultados dos testes de razões de verossimilhanças / Abstract: The aim of this study is to identify associated factors to time failure survival of breast cancer such as age, stage and extent of the tumor using Cox's proportional hazards and Fine-Gray competing risks models. It is a retrospective cohort study of population-based concerning to 524 women diagnosed with breast cancer in the period 1993-1995, followed until 2011, living in the city of Campinas, São Paulo State, Brazil. The cutoff age variable has been defined using Cox models. In the settings of simple and multiple models of Fine-Gray and Cox age was not significant when the death from breast cancer was the outcome of interest. The survival curves estimated by Kaplan-Meier showed significant differences in the odds comparing the deaths from breast cancer and competing risks. The survival curves for breast cancer showed no significant differences when comparing age groups, according to the logrank test. The Fine-Gray and Cox models identified the same covariates influencing the survival time for both events of interest: deaths from breast cancer and deaths from competing risks. The exponential, Weibull and lognormal regression models were compared with generalized gamma model and it is concluded that the Weibull regression model was the most appropriate to adjust the survival time in the presence of competing risks, according to results of the ratio likelihood tests / Doutorado / Epidemiologia / Doutora em Saúde Coletiva

Master thesis describes a single-purpose machine design, that is used for testing a basic features of proportional solenoid. The design is created in cooperation with company NUVIA a.s. and contains mechanical solution that is processed in respect with ergonomic requirements, safety and overall costs. Machine concept is affected by customer requirements, whose name, as well as real parameters of the product will not be published, because of non-disclosure agreement.

The thesis deals with design and implementation of proportional hydraulic valve, which will be integrated to hydraulic system of small hydro in Rájec - Jestřebí. This valve will be used to control one of the wicket gates of double Francis turbine. The thesis is processed for the company Mavel a.s., which is the owner of SH. The goal of this thesis is to create control of the valve according to the client's requirements, its implementation to the control system and commissioning.

Magnetic shape memory alloys are active materials which deform under the application of a magnetic field or an external stress. Due to their internal friction, recognizable from the strain-stress hysteresis, this new material technology allows the design of multistable actuators. This paper describes and characterizes an innovative airflow control valve whose aperture is proportional to the deformation of the active material and thus controllable by the input voltage. The multistability of the material is partially exploited within an airflow control loop to reduce the energy losses of the valve when a specific airflow value must be hold.

Thesis (M.Sc. (Statistics)) -- University of Limpopo, 2019 / This research study has demonstrated the complexity involved in complex survey sample design (CSSD). Furthermore the study has proposed methods to account for each step taken in sampling and at the estimation stage using the theory of survey sampling, CSSD-based case studies and practical implementation based on census attributes. CSSD methods are designed to improve statistical efficiency, reduce costs and improve precision for sub-group analyses relative to simple random sample(SRS).They are commonly used by statistical agencies as well as development and aid organisations. CSSDs provide one of the most challenging fields for applying a statistical methodology. Researchers encounter a vast diversity of unique practical problems in the course of studying populations. These include, interalia: non-sampling errors,specific population structures,contaminated distributions of study variables,non-satisfactory sample sizes, incorporation of the auxiliary information available on many levels, simultaneous estimation of characteristics in various sub-populations, integration of data from many waves or phases of the survey and incompletely specified sampling procedures accompanying published data. While the study has not exhausted all the available real-life scenarios, it has outlined potential problems illustrated using examples and suggested appropriate approaches at each stage. Dealing with the attributes of CSSDs mentioned above brings about the need for formulating sophisticated statistical procedures dedicated to specific conditions of a sample survey. CSSD methodologies give birth to a wide variety of approaches, methodologies and procedures of borrowing the strength from virtually all branches of statistics. The application of various statistical methods from sample design to weighting and estimation ensures that the optimal estimates of a population and various domains are obtained from the sample data.CSSDs are probability sampling methodologies from which inferences are drawn about the population. The methods used in the process of producing estimates include adjustment for unequal probability of selection (resulting from stratification, clustering and probability proportional to size (PPS), non-response adjustments and benchmarking to auxiliary totals. When estimates of survey totals, means and proportions are computed using various methods, results do not differ. The latter applies when estimates are calculated for planned domains that are taken into account in sample design and benchmarking. In contrast, when the measures of precision such as standard errors and coefficient of variation are produced, they yield different results depending on the extent to which the design information is incorporated during estimation. The literature has revealed that most statistical computer packages assume SRS design in estimating variances. The replication method was used to calculate measures of precision which take into account all the sampling parameters and weighting adjustments computed in the CSSD process. The creation of replicate weights and estimation of variances were done using WesVar, astatistical computer package capable of producing statistical inference from data collected through CSSD methods. Keywords: Complex sampling, Survey design, Probability sampling, Probability proportional to size, Stratification, Area sampling, Cluster sampling.

An autonomous system consisting of an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) in cooperation with an unmanned ground vehicle (UGV) is of interest in applications for military reconnaissance, surveillance and target acquisition (RSTA). The basic idea of such a system is to take advantage of the vehicles strengths and counteract their weaknesses. The cooperation aspect suggests that the UAV is capable of autonomously landing on the UGV. A fundamental part of the landing is to localise the UAV with respect to the UGV. Traditional navigation systems utilise global navigation satellite system (GNSS) receivers for localisation. GNSS receivers have many advantages, but they are sensitive to interference and spoofing. Therefore, this thesis investigates the feasibility of autonomous landing in a GNSS-denied scenario. The proposed landing system is divided into a control and an estimation system. The control system uses a proportional navigation (PN) control law to approach the UGV. When sufficiently close, a proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controller is used to match the movements of the UGV and perform a controlled descent and landing. The estimation system comprises an extended Kalman filter that utilises measurements from a camera, an imu and ultra-wide band (UWB) impulse radios. The landing system is composed of various results from previous research. First, the sensors used by the landing system are evaluated experimentally to get an understanding of their characteristics. The results are then used to determine the optimal sensor placements, in the design of the EKF, as well as, to shape the simulation environment and make it realistic. The simulation environment is used to evaluate the proposed landing system. The combined system is able to land the UAV safely on the moving UGV, confirming a fully-functional landing system. Additionally, the estimation system is evaluated experimentally, with results comparable to those obtained in simulation. The overall results are promising for the possibility of using the landing system with the presented hardware platform to perform a successful landing.