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This dissertation examines three facets of U.S. energy use and policy. First, I examine the Gulf Coast petroleum refining industry to determine the structure of the industry. Using the duality between cost-minimization and production functions, I estimate the demand for labor to determine the underlying production function. The results indicate that refineries have become more capital intensive due to the relative price increase of labor. The industry has consolidated in response to higher labor costs and costs of environmental compliance. Next, I examine oil production in the United States. An empirical model based on the theoretical framework of Pindyck is used to estimate production. This model differs from previous research by using state level data rather than national level data. The results indicate that the production elasticity with respect to reserves and the price elasticity of supply are both inelastic in the long run. The implication of these findings is that policies designed to increase domestic production through subsidies, tax breaks, or royalty reductions will likely provide little additional oil. We simulate production under three scenarios. In the most extreme scenario, prices double between 2005 and 2030 while reserves increase by 50%. Under this scenario, oil production in 2030 is approximately the same as the 2005 level. The third essay estimates demand for fossil fuels in the U.S. and uses these estimates to forecast CO2 emissions. The results indicate that there is almost no substitution from one fossil fuel to another and that all three fossil fuels are inelastic in the long run. Additionally, all three fuels respond differently to changes in GDP. The result of the differing elasticities with respect to GDP is that the energy mix has changed over time. The implication for forecasting CO2 emissions is that models that cannot distinguish changes in the energy mix are not effective in forecasting CO2 emissions.

The production of oil requires tremendous amounts of energy consumption through a distributed combustion network of processes along the oil supply chain spectrum. The consequences of fossil-based fuel combustion processes are the generation of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions and hazardous wastewater, which have adverse environmental effects. Potential mitigation options of GHG emissions are the application of renewable and alternative energy sources. This research deals with integrating the upstream oil supply chain with renewable power generation systems in order to assess the impact of energy demand, and CO2 emissions on the efficiency of oil operations and environment . The main focus in this thesis is to evaluate the solar energy alternative for producing part of the energy requirements in the upstream oil supply chain. The output from the research will provide an optimal mix of energy generation in the upstream oil industry in order to comply with CO2 constraints, while sustaining target production plans. An analysis of GHG emission sources and their associated flow rates in the upstream oil supply chain mainly CO2 is discussed in this study. An investigation of replacement of energy supply for some non-critical operations from fossil fuels or other conventional sources to green renewable energy sources mainly from solar energy is also carried out with special focus on enhanced oil recovery operations. An analysis of different types of solar energy and identification of the best type of solar energy technologies that best matches the oil and gas industry is investigated in this study. The thesis will also identify the challenges for solar energy integration including irradiation levels and weather conditions in addition to policy regulations

Master of Arts / Department of Economics / Lance J. Bachmeier / The traditional view of oil price movements is that they represent exogenous changes in the supply of oil. In that case, oil price increases will hurt output. Recently, some have questioned whether oil price increases are actually due to higher demand for oil, in which case higher oil prices will be followed by higher output. This thesis develops a model that allows changes in the price of oil to have different effects depending on whether the price of oil and output growth are moving in the same direction (so that the increase in the price of oil was primarily due to an increase in the demand for oil) or in the opposite direction (so that the increase in the price of oil was primarily due to an oil supply shock). The paper presents three sets of results. First, we present the model results for the 1965-2008 time period. Then we look at the 1986-2008 period separately. Finally, we construct a forecasting model for the U.S. industrial production index. The model developed does not require making identifying assumptions and can be used with the data that is available on the internet, and is well understood. Maximum likelihood estimation, which is commonly used for non-linear estimation, is used to estimate the model. We find in-sample evidence in favor of our new model for the 1986-2008 subsample. The new model is unable to provide better out-of-sample forecasts for the 1986-2008 time period.

[pt] A indústria do petróleo é uma das mais importantes e dinâmicas do Brasil. Em uma indústria naturalmente integrada como a petrolífera, é necessário um adequado planejamento estratégico da cadeia integrada de petróleo que contemple todos os seus processos, como a produção de petróleo, refino, distribuição e comercialização de derivados. Além disso, a indústria de petróleo está suscetível a diversas incertezas relacionadas a preço de petróleo e derivados, oferta de óleo bruto e demanda de produtos. Em face destas oportunidades e desafios, foi desenvolvido no âmbito desta dissertação um modelo de programação estocástica para o planejamento estratégico da cadeia de petróleo brasileira. O modelo contempla as refinarias e suas unidades de processos, as propriedades dos petróleos e derivados, a logística nacional e decisões de comercialização de petróleo e derivados, incluindo incertezas associadas a preço de mercado, produção de petróleo nacional e demanda interna de derivados. A partir do modelo estocástico foram formulados um modelo robusto e um modelo MinMax no intuito de comparar o desempenho e a qualidade da solução estocástica. Os modelos propostos foram aplicados a um exemplo real, com 17 refinarias e 3 centrais petroquímicas que processam 50 produtos intermediários, destinados a produção de 10 derivados associados à demanda nacional, 8 campos de exploração de petróleo, 14 produtores gás natural, 1 produtor de óleo vegetal, 13 terminais, 4 bases de distribuição e 278 arcos de transporte. Na análise de resultados foram utilizadas medidas como Valor Esperado da Informação Perfeita (EVPI) e Valor da Solução Estocástica (VSS). / [en] The oil industry is one of the most important and dynamic in Brazil. As the oil industry naturally integrated, we need an appropriate strategic planning to the oil supply chain that consider all its processes, such as oil production, refining, distribution and refined products marketing. Moreover, the oil industry is susceptible to various uncertainties regarding the oil and products price, crude oil supply and products demand. In light of these opportunities and challenges, it was developed in this dissertation a stochastic programming model for the strategic planning of the Brazilian oil supply chain. The model includes refineries and process units, oils and their products properties, logistics and national marketing decisions of oil and products, including uncertainties associated with market price, oil domestic production and refined products domestic demand. Based on the stochastic model a robust model and a MinMax model were formulated in order to compare the performance and quality of the stochastic solution. The proposed models were applied to a real example, with 17 refineries and 3 petrochemical power plants that process 50 intermediate products, intended to production of 10 final products associated to national demand, 8 oil fields, 14 natural gas producers, 1 vegetal oil producer, 13 terminals, 4 delivery points and 278 arches of transport. In the results analysis was used as measures the Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) and the Value of the Stochastic Solution (VSS).

A área do petróleo é uma das que mais podem se beneficiar da melhoria de eficiência da gestão da cadeia de suprimentos. Entretanto, o comportamento dinâmico de tais cadeias é muito complexo para ser modelado de forma analítica. Por outro lado, estas cadeias mostram várias características intrínsecas em comum com sistemas multiagentes, que oferecem a flexibilidade necessária para modelar as complexidades e a dinâmica das cadeias de suprimentos reais sem a necessidade de premissas muito simplificadoras. Como o problema de gerenciamento da cadeia de suprimentos apresenta uma estrutura recursiva, torna-se ainda mais conveniente usar um modelo baseado em agentes holônicos, que mostram uma estrutura do tipo fractal. Além disso, o tipo de relacionamento entre as entidades da cadeia e a necessidade de uma otimização global sugerem modelar suas interações na forma de restrições. Por esta razão, esta tese propõe um modelo distribuído de otimização através da definição de um novo problema denominado Problema de Satisfação de Restrições Holônico com Otimização (HCOP), que é baseado nos conceitos do Problema de Satisfação de Restrições Distribuído com Otimização (DCOP) e agentes holônicos. Além disso, foi desenvolvido um meta-algoritmo baseado no algoritmo DTREE para solucionar este tipo de problema, onde vários algoritmos disponíveis de otimização centralizados podem ser embutidos e integrados de tal forma a obter a configuração mais adequada para cada caso. Assim, uma típica cadeia de suprimentos da indústria do petróleo foi modelada como um HCOP, e foi desenvolvido um protótipo que implementa o meta-algoritmo proposto em um ambiente que integra sistemas de otimização de produção e logística, que são representativos em relação a situações reais. Finalmente foram realizados experimentos sobre um estudo de caso da empresa PETROBRAS, que permitiram a verificação da viabilidade deste modelo e a comprovação de suas vantagens em relação às abordagens convencionais. / The oil area is one of those that may most benefit from the improved efficiency of supply chain management. However, the dynamic behavior of such chains is too complex to be modeled analytically. Moreover, these chains show several intrinsic characteristics in common with multiagent systems, which offer the required flexibility to model the complexities and dynamics of real supply chains without rather simplifying assumptions. As the problem of managing the supply chain has a recursive structure, it becomes more convenient to use a model based on holonic agents, which show a fractal-type structure. Furthermore, the type of relationship between entities in the chain and the need for global optimization suggest to model their interactions in the form of constraints. For this reason, this thesis proposes an optimization distributed model by defining a new problem called Holonic Constraint Optimization Problem (HCOP), which is based on concepts from Distributed Constraint Satisfaction Optimization Problem (DCOP) and holonic agents. In addition we developed a meta-algorithm based on DTREE algorithm for solving this type of problem, where several algorithms available for centralized optimization algorithms can be embedded and integrated so as to obtain the most suitable configuration for each case. Thus, a typical supply chain of the petroleum industry was modeled as a HCOP, and we developed a prototype that implements the meta-algorithm in an environment that integrates the optimization systems for production and logistics, which are representative in relation to actual situations. Finally experiments were performed on a case study of the company PETROBRAS, which allowed the verification of the feasibility of this model and the proof of their advantages over conventional approaches.

A área do petróleo é uma das que mais podem se beneficiar da melhoria de eficiência da gestão da cadeia de suprimentos. Entretanto, o comportamento dinâmico de tais cadeias é muito complexo para ser modelado de forma analítica. Por outro lado, estas cadeias mostram várias características intrínsecas em comum com sistemas multiagentes, que oferecem a flexibilidade necessária para modelar as complexidades e a dinâmica das cadeias de suprimentos reais sem a necessidade de premissas muito simplificadoras. Como o problema de gerenciamento da cadeia de suprimentos apresenta uma estrutura recursiva, torna-se ainda mais conveniente usar um modelo baseado em agentes holônicos, que mostram uma estrutura do tipo fractal. Além disso, o tipo de relacionamento entre as entidades da cadeia e a necessidade de uma otimização global sugerem modelar suas interações na forma de restrições. Por esta razão, esta tese propõe um modelo distribuído de otimização através da definição de um novo problema denominado Problema de Satisfação de Restrições Holônico com Otimização (HCOP), que é baseado nos conceitos do Problema de Satisfação de Restrições Distribuído com Otimização (DCOP) e agentes holônicos. Além disso, foi desenvolvido um meta-algoritmo baseado no algoritmo DTREE para solucionar este tipo de problema, onde vários algoritmos disponíveis de otimização centralizados podem ser embutidos e integrados de tal forma a obter a configuração mais adequada para cada caso. Assim, uma típica cadeia de suprimentos da indústria do petróleo foi modelada como um HCOP, e foi desenvolvido um protótipo que implementa o meta-algoritmo proposto em um ambiente que integra sistemas de otimização de produção e logística, que são representativos em relação a situações reais. Finalmente foram realizados experimentos sobre um estudo de caso da empresa PETROBRAS, que permitiram a verificação da viabilidade deste modelo e a comprovação de suas vantagens em relação às abordagens convencionais. / The oil area is one of those that may most benefit from the improved efficiency of supply chain management. However, the dynamic behavior of such chains is too complex to be modeled analytically. Moreover, these chains show several intrinsic characteristics in common with multiagent systems, which offer the required flexibility to model the complexities and dynamics of real supply chains without rather simplifying assumptions. As the problem of managing the supply chain has a recursive structure, it becomes more convenient to use a model based on holonic agents, which show a fractal-type structure. Furthermore, the type of relationship between entities in the chain and the need for global optimization suggest to model their interactions in the form of constraints. For this reason, this thesis proposes an optimization distributed model by defining a new problem called Holonic Constraint Optimization Problem (HCOP), which is based on concepts from Distributed Constraint Satisfaction Optimization Problem (DCOP) and holonic agents. In addition we developed a meta-algorithm based on DTREE algorithm for solving this type of problem, where several algorithms available for centralized optimization algorithms can be embedded and integrated so as to obtain the most suitable configuration for each case. Thus, a typical supply chain of the petroleum industry was modeled as a HCOP, and we developed a prototype that implements the meta-algorithm in an environment that integrates the optimization systems for production and logistics, which are representative in relation to actual situations. Finally experiments were performed on a case study of the company PETROBRAS, which allowed the verification of the feasibility of this model and the proof of their advantages over conventional approaches.

Thesis (MA)--University of Stellenbosch, 2011. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: African affairs have traditionally not occupied a central place in Norway’s official foreign policy, and relations with countries in West Africa have been limited. However, in recent years, resource-rich countries such as Angola – Africa’s largest oil producer – have become the focus of Norwegian strategic interests. Private and public investments are increasing rapidly, paralleling a larger focus on aid. Today, Angola is a core country within Norway’s most prominent petroleum-related assistant programme, Oil for Development (OfD). This thesis will aim to contribute, by means of a critical political economy analysis, to a better understanding of Norway’s role in Angola through OfD. Specifically, this study aims to question who and what structures Norway really is aiding in Angola. Such an objective will be achieved by firstly using critical theory to demonstrate Norway’s role as a traditional middle power – through which Norway seeks to export an altruistic perception of a ‘do-good- image’ – is underpinned by a deeper national self-interest. Secondly, the thesis questions the theoretical foundation of OfD, and, thirdly, it attempts to identify whom the OfD programme is aiding. Ultimately, the thesis questions whether Norway is promoting sustainable development in Angola, or whether, instead, it is contributing to maintaining a status quo, from which Norway as a middle power continues to benefit. The study illustrates that Norway, as a middle power, has neither the capacity nor the national self-interest to achieve fundamental change in Angola. Norway’s commitment to the good governance agenda, and the belief in solutions offered by the resource curse thesis, is tackling the symptoms of Angola’s underdevelopment, rather than its root causes. OfD adopts a state-centric approach, which accepts the political economy structures in Angola, and gives limited attention to global structures and civil society. The thesis offers an alternative analysis, which illustrates how OfD is masking a neo-liberal development approach by incorporating Norwegian business interests and development goals in the same programme. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Afrika sake het tradisioneel nie 'n sentrale plek in Noorweë se amptelike buitelandse beleid beklee nie, en verhoudings met die westelike deel van die Afrika-kontinent is beperk. Tydens die afgelope jare het olie-ryk lande, soos Angola, egter die fokus van Noorweegse strategiese belange geword. Angola is vandag 'n kern land binne Noorweë se mees prominente petroleum-verwante hulpverleningsprogram, Oil for Development (OfD). Hierdie tesis het ten doel om, deur middel van 'n kritiese politieke ekonomie ontleding, by te dra tot ’n beter begrip van Noorweë se rol in Angola deur die OfD. Spesifiek bevraagteken hierdie studie aan wie en watter strukture in Angola Noorweë hulp verleen. Dit sal gedoen word deur eerstens gebruik te maak van kritiese teorie om te demonstreer dat Noorweë se rol as 'n tradisionele middelmoondheid – waardeur Noorweë poog om 'n altruïstiese persepsie van die staat uit te dra – onderskryf word deur 'n dieper nasionale selfbelang. Tweedens sal hierdie studie die teoretiese begronding van OfD bevraagteken, en derdens poog om te identifiseer wie deur die OfD program ondersteun word. Laastens sal die tesis bevraagteken of Noorweë volhoubare ontwikkeling in Angola bevorder, en eerder bydra tot die instandhouding van die status quo, waaruit Noorweë as 'n middelmoondheid voordeel trek. Die studie sal illustreer dat Noorweë, as ‘n middelmoondheid, nie die kapasiteit of die nasionale selfbelang het om fundamentele verandering in Angola te weeg te bring nie. Norweë se ondersteuning van die ‘good governance’ agenda, en oplossings wat deur die sogenaamde ‘hulpbronvloek’ tesis aangebied word, spreek die simptome van Angola se onder-ontwikkeldheid aan, eerder as die kernoorsake. OfD funksioneer op grond van ‘n staat-sentriese benadering, wat die politieke ekonomiese strukture in Angola aanvaar, en beperkte aandag aan globale strukture en die burgerlike samelewing gee. Hierdie tesis bied ‘n alternatiewe analise, wat wys hoe OfD eintlik ‘n neoliberale ontwikkelingsbenadering volg wat Noorweegse besigheids- en ontwikkelingsdoelwitte in dieselfde program inkorporeer.

This paper attempts to assess the impact of price fluctuations in oil resulting from worldwide oil supply shocks on the real returns of the U.S. stock market, specifically the S&P 500, during the period of 1986 to 2011. While much past research has found an inverse relationship to exist between simply oil price increases and stock market returns, not many studies have been conducted that focus on the effects of shifts in oil supply. The model utilized, a variation of that used by Hamilton (2008), determines that changes in oil prices arising from oil supply shocks one quarter prior (t-1) and one year prior (t-4) have an effect on real stock returns. However, an F-test assessing the joint impact of the explanatory variables is unable to reject the null hypothesis that the joint effects of changes in oil prices arising from supply shocks have zero effect on the returns of the stock market.

Growing concerns about interruption to oil supply and oil shortages have led to escalating global oil prices. In addition, increased public acceptance of the global warming problem has prompted car manufacturers to agree to carbon emission targets in many regions including most recently, the Californian standards. Other legislating bodies are sure to follow this lead with increasingly stringent targets. As a result of these issues, spark ignition engines in their current form will need significant improvements to meet future requirements. One technically feasible option is smaller capacity downsized engines with enhanced power that could be used in the near term to reduce both carbon emissions and fuel consumption in passenger vehicles.This research focuses on exploring the performance limits of a 0.43 liter spark ignited engine and defining its operating boundaries. Limiting factors such as combustion, gas exchange and component design are investigated to determine if they restrict small engine performance. The research gives direction to the development of smaller gasoline engines and establishes the extent to which they can contribute to future powertrain fuel consumption reduction whilst maintaining engine power at European intermediate class requirements.