Η παρούσα εργασία επικεντρώνεται στην αποτίμηση της μακροοικονομικής ετερογένειας μεταξύ Ευρωπαϊκών και μη Ευρωπαϊκών χωρών και στο να εκτιμήσει το κατά πόσο ο συγχρονισμός των οικονομικών κύκλων έχει μεταβληθεί με το χρόνο. Η μεθοδολογία είναι δομημένη με το εξής τρόπο. Πρώτον, συγκρίνουμε τις συσχετίσεις μεταξύ των χωρών για δύο περιόδους και δεύτερον, συγκρίνουμε τις τιμές του συντελεστή ανισότητας Theil για να σκιαγραφήσουμε την ετερογένεια μεταξύ αυτών των δύο περιόδων. Τέλος, παλινδρομούμε διάφορες μεταβλητές έτσι ώστε να καταλήξουμε ποιοι παράγοντες επιδρούν στον συσχετισμό και ποιοι επηρεάζουν την μείωση της ετερογένειας μεταξύ των χωρών που εξετάζουμε. / This paper focuses on assessing the macroeconomic heterogeneity among European and non European Countries and to account how does business cycle synchronization has changed over time. The methodology is structured in the following manner. First, we compare the correlations between the countries among two periods and second, we compare the values of the Theil Inequality coefficient to outline the heterogeneity between this two periods. Finally, we regress differently variables so as to conclude which factors affect the correlation and which affect the reduction of the heterogeneity among the countries we examine.

This paper summarizes the main Optimum Currency Area Theories (AMO), in order to use this branch of regional integration, to verify the configuration, in a cluster scenario, the euro area member countries during the period 2002-2013, from the perspective of macroeconomic imbalances factors, evidenced by the euro crisis, recent. Therefore, making use of statistical methods of multivariate analysis, and, factor analysis and cluster analysis were allowed to result in that during the period before the outbreak of the euro crisis had agreater concentration of countries in the first group, composed of countries more mature and more competitive economy. However, during the most turbulent crisis years, there is a greater amount of the groups formed by making the first less concentrated and dispersed in the composition of the other group. Only in the last two years of observation, 2012 and 2013, we find again a concentration of member countries in a group, then it is observed that in the years most critical crisis, show up macroeconomic disparities in the euro zone countries. Thus, the research contributes in order to verify, by means of multivariate analysis every year, over a period of time, and contrast with the reality that reaches the monetary union in Europe, to confirm that the disparities that existed before the outbreak of the crisis, and continue to exist between the members of the currency area. Confirming that the convergence criteria has not stopped economic disparities were reduced. / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / O presente trabalho faz um resumo das principais Teorias de Área Monetária Ótima (AMO), de modo a utilizar este ramo de integração regional, para verificar a configuração, em um panorama de agrupamento, dos países-membros da área do euro, durante o período de 2002 a 2013, pela ótica de fatores de desequilíbrios macroeconômicos, evidenciado pela crise do euro, recente. Logo, fazendo uso de metodologias estatísticas de análise multivariada, mais precisamente, análise fatorial e análise de agrupamento, permitiu-se resultar em que durante o período anterior à eclosão da crise do euro havia uma maior concentração de países no primeiro grupo, composto por países de economia mais madura e mais competitiva. Entretanto, durante os anos mais turbulentos de crise, observa-se uma maior quantidade de grupos formados, tornando o primeiro grupo menos concentrado e disperso na composição dos demais. Apenas nos dois últimos anos observados, 2012 e 2013, verifica-se novamente uma concentração de países-membros em um grupo, logo se observa que nos anos mais críticos de crise, evidenciam-se as disparidades macroeconômicas dos países da zona do euro. Assim, a pesquisa contribui no sentido de verificar, por meio de análise ultivariada ano a ano, ao longo de um período de tempo, e contrastar com a realidade que atinge a união monetária na Europa, ao confirmar que as disparidades, que já existiam antes da eclosão da crise, e continuam a existir entre os integrantes da área monetária. Confirmando que os critérios de convergência não impediu que as disparidades econômicas fossem diminuídas.

The theory of optimum currency areas states that the more two countries trade with each other, the better candidates they are for a currency union. In terms of the endogeneity argument, convergence follows from joining a currency union and the integration process itself turns the countries into optimal currency areas. The potential increase in trade is regarded as one of the most important benefits of a currency union. Indirect evidence from studies on the effect of exchange rate volatility on trade does not support this claim. Rose argues that the common currency effect on trade is separate from the effect of the elimination of exchange rate variability and finds a large positive effect of a currency union on trade. Although his methodology has met with criticism, most studies find a positive estimate. A meta-analysis of the studies confirms that a common currency has a statistically and economically significant trade-creating effect. / Economics / M.Com. (Economics)

Whatever country gives up its currency and adopts the currency of the common union, has to count on some impacts. The country loses its exchange rate convergential channel and the convergency is running throught the inflation. The level of the inflation pain depends on the difference in the economic level between those two areas, i.e. Hungary and the European Union. If Hungary adopts euro, it would lead to high inflation and numerous shocks due to Hungarian low level of convergency and different monetary policy transmission mechanism. Hungary has no chance to avoid adoption of euro in the log run, but if it keeps forint for at least a few years, Hungary can expect a tolerable inflation, more natural convergential process and the possibility to use its own monetary policy, which in Hungary is based right on the exchange rate channel of monetary transmission.

The diploma thesis identifies and assesses current problems of the European Monetary Union, based on: firstly, theoretic approach which reviews the position of monetary union within the range of alternative exchange rate regimes, secondly, historic approach which explains evolutionary principle in the process of European monetary integration, and thirdly, economic approach which analyses the viability of the euro area by application of the criteria of the optimum currency area theory. Subsequently, the roots and development of today's euro area crisis are described and also future scenarios of development in Greece and entire euro area are briefly outlined. The analysis shows that the European Monetary Union by far does not meet the optimum currency area criteria and thus the euro area is considerably vulnerable to future asymmetric shocks.

This work is aimed to determine whether the Czech Republic is ready to enter to the third stage of European economic and monetary union which is associated with the adoption of the euro, and that regarding the fulfillment of the formal entry criteria and also in terms of alignment of the Czech economy with the rest of the eurozone. On that basis evaluate whether it is advantageous for the country to adopt the euro. The first part introduces the different stages of regional integration, as well as the theory of optimum currency areas and economic governance in the European Union. The second chapter is devoted to evaluate the readiness of the Czech Republic to join the euro zone from three perspectives. First, fulfillment of nominal convergence criteria is evaluated. Real convergence and macroeconomic imbalances within the euro area are assessed using cluster analysis. The second approach is to analyze whether EMU constitute an optimal currency area. At the end the experience, of three countries of the eastern enlargement, with changeover to a common currency are presented.

The introduction of euro in 2002 was considered to be a risky "experiment. Even before its actual existence, many economists have doubted the success of the Economic Monetary Union (EMU) emphasizing the potential costs of such a bold action. The traditional Optimum Currency Area by Mundell (1961), Mc Kinnon (1963) and Kenen (1969) has pointed out the loss of the exchange-rate mechanism and the structural differences among the member states as the main sources of costs within a monetary union. Ten years after the circulation of euro, the ongoing Greek debt crisis has revealed the imperfections of the EMU. Greece has become the "black sheep" of the union, having accumulated unsustainable levels of public debt and deficits that could pose a threat for the future of the Eurozone. It is widely believed that the profligate fiscal policies of the Greek government and the domestic flaws of the Greek economy have played an importan role on the country's debt crisis. However, the impact of Greece's accession to the EMU on the current crisis is still a moot question.

Introduced graduation thesis engaged in chosen implications on joining the euro area by the Czech Republic. The main target is to find the response for question: How much contributive is to enter the European Monetary Union (EMU)? The thesis is divided into five chapters. The first one includes historical and political development of European monetary integration, institutional effectiveness and economic development analysis of EMU. Following section considers the topic of EMU as a optimum currency area – objective conditions are also tested by way of Czech Republic example. Here I came to the conclusion that conditions of optimum currency area are not satisfied in many respects. Chapter number three describes the topic of nominal convergence, chapter number four describes the topic of real and price level convergence. Czech Republic is being characterized by low price level whose stepwise fitting is expected to become more complicated by virtue of using common monetary policy. Cost-benefit analysis of joining EMU is mentioned in last chapter. The most significant cost is accounted a loss of independent monetary policy, on the other hand the stable exchange rate is believed to be the most considerable benefit. The recommendation stating that Czech Republic is advised to join EMU later date is mentioned in final conclusion.

The thesis deals with the readiness of the Czech Republic to adopt Euro from nominal as well as from real criterions point of view. Theory of optimum currency area is introduced in the first part of the thesis. In the second part the particular criterions are analyzed on example of the Czech Republic. In last part the most important consequences related to Euro adoption are examined.

The Czech Republic has committed itself to adopt the euro with joining the European union in 2004. Until today there has not been any political interest of setting the specific date of euro adoption due to low public approval. Currently, there is an increase of positive public opinion about euro so it is the right time to start an objective discussion. The thesis is divided into three parts. The First part describes the history and evolution of the European monetary union, Maastricht convergence criteria and the theory of optimal currency area. The second part presents possible economic benefits and costs of joining the monetary union. The third and the main part examines the real effects of euro adoption on sample of selected countries with similar characteristics. The impact of euro on main economic indicators was analysed and there has been carried out a comparison between these countries. Also the role of euro in trade of selected countries has been highlighted. Last but not least, the possible impact of euro on country competitivness has been analysed in the context of optimum currency area theory. It is expected that joining the monetary union leads to a boost of bilateral trade which harmonizes the economic cycles of trade partners. The main purpose of this part is to prove the increase of competitiveness of exporters gained from monetary union measured by the raise of the bilateral trade interconnection. Finally these two criteria - gross domestic product alignment and bilateral trade interconnection have been used to describe the suitability of Czech Republic as a candidate country for the European monetary union.