This study examines the linkages between output growth and output volatility in the G7 countries over the period 1958M2-2013M8. Using the VAR-based spillover index approach by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) we find that: i) output growth and volatility are highly intertwined; ii) spillovers have reached unprecedented levels during the global financial crisis; and iii) the US has been the largest transmitter of growth and volatility shocks. Generalized impulse response analyses suggest moderate growth spillovers and sizable volatility spillovers across countries. Cross-variable effects indicate that volatility shocks lead to lower growth, while growth shocks reduce output volatility.

Ao longo dos últimos anos tem se observado no mundo uma expansão do setor leiteiro. Parte dessa expansão se deve a novas tecnologias que foram adotadas nas últimas décadas, mas também ocorreu por causa da queda, ou da anulação de barreiras comerciais. Contudo, notou-se também uma queda no número de fazendas leiteiras. Sendo o leite uma commodity os preços seguem as oscilações de mercado - oferta e demanda - e nenhum dos agentes possui poder para influenciar nos preços de compra e venda dessa mercadoria. Como os boletins do CEPEA mostram, os preços no ano passado têm-se mantido abaixo da média histórica, referente à última década, mas os termos de troca com relação a quantidade de litros de leite para se comprar insumos e defensivos se mantêm em patamares estáveis com tendência de alta. Tendo em vista esse problema, surge a necessidade de buscar compreender melhor como funciona o sistema de produção do setor leiteiro. Este trabalho satisfatoriamente conseguiu detectar através das fronteiras estocásticas de produção simples - leite como único produto de saída - e multi-output - leite e outros produtos animais existentes nas fazendas - além da regressão quantílica para análise de quantis variados da produção de leite, quais os insumos utilizados pelos produtores que oferecem melhores retornos para sua produção bem como analisar fatores de eficiência (BATTESE, COELLI; 1995; CHIDMI; SOLÍS; CABRERA, 2011). Os resultados apresentados apontam para a necessidade de se levar em consideração a inter-relação entre os insumos considerados - função de produção translog - e identificaram os insumos referentes ao capital - quantidade de vacas ordenhadas e gastos com máquinas e equipamentos - e ao trabalho - gastos com salários - como principais insumos da atividade pecuária. Os gastos com medicamentos animais, com energia elétrica e a área disponível para a atividade pecuária se mostraram contraproducentes indicando mau uso ou uso excessivo desses fatores, além de ressaltar a importância do capital na pecuária. Em geral, para quase todos os modelos testados, a produção leiteira apresentou retornos constantes à escala e nível de eficiência em torno de 88% em média para as fronteiras estocásticas e 90% para as estimativas feitas com regressão quantílica. Entre os fatores de eficiência identificados estão a capacidade de armazenamento de silos e tanques de refrigeração para o leite e a margem bruta líquida obtida com a atividade. Os fatores de ineficiência identificados são a prática de queimadas e o percentual de mulheres na administração das unidades produtivas. Com relação aos variados modelos estimados percebeu-se, em suma, a necessidade de se intensificar a produção pecuária e de melhorar a infraestrutura das fazendas. / Over the past few years it has been observed in the world an expansion of the dairy industry. Part of this expansion is due to new technologies that have been adopted in recent decades, but also because of the fall, or the annulment of trade barriers. However, it has also been noted a drop in the number of dairy farms. Being a commodity, milk prices follow the market oscillations - supply and demand - and none of the agents has enough power to influence buying and selling prices of this commodity. As the CEPEA bulletins show, prices last year have remained below the historical average for the last decade, but the terms of trade regarding the amount of liters of milk to buy inputs and pesticides at levels remain stable with uptrend. In view of this problem, there is the need to get a better understanding of how the dairy sector production system works. This work satisfactorily managed to detect, through the single-output stochastic production frontier method - value of milk production as output - and multi-output - value of milk and other existing animal products at the farms - besides quantile regression analysis for multiple production quantiles, which inputs used by farmers offer the best outcome for their production as well as analyzing efficiency factors (BATTESE; COELLI, 1995; CHIDMI; SOLÍS; CABRERA, 2011). The estimated results pointed to the need of considering the interrelation of considered inputs - translog production function - and identified the capital related inputs - quantity of milked cows and expenditure on machinery and equipment - and work related inputs - expenditure on wages - as main production inputs. Expenditure on animal drugs and on electricity and the area available for livestock activity proved counterproductive indicating misuse or overuse of these factors, in addition to emphasizing the importance of capital in livestock. In general, for most of the tested models, dairy production showed constant returns to scale and an average efficiency level of 88% for stochastic frontier models and 90% for estimates done using quantile regression. Among the identified efficiency factors are the storage capacity of silos and cooling tanks for milk and the net gross margin with activity. The identified inefficiency factors are the practice of burning and the percentage of women in the management of production units. With regard to various models estimated it was realized, in short, the need to intensify livestock production and to improve the infrastructure of the farms.

Current human activity is degrading the environment and depleting biotic and abiotic resources at unheard-of rates, inducing global environmental change and jeopardising the development of humankind. The structure of human activity determines which resources are extracted, how they are transformed and where and how they are emitted back to the environment. Thus, the structure of human activity ultimately determines the human-Earth System interaction and human-induced environmental degradation. Several theories and empirical findings suggest that a cyclic structure would lower the resource requirements and emissions of the economic system, decoupling production and consumption from their environmental impacts. However, the cyclic structure has not been fully characterised nor related to the resource requirements or emission generation estimates of environmental impacts as calculated through models representing the physical structure of the economic system. This thesis is interested in developing tools to analyse the physical structure of the economic system and, ultimately, to develop a method to identify its cyclic structure and relate it to the environmental impact induced by economic activity. Using this new knowledge, it might be possible to reduce the environmental impact of the economy by altering its physical structure. In chapter 3, the different methods to calculate the emissions and resources associated to a given final demand of physical input-output tables are reviewed because they gather different results; it is argued that only two are valid. Surprisingly, these two methods reveal different physical structures; these are explored using a backward linkage analysis and their differences explained. It is found that only one method is appropriate to analyse the physical structure of the economic system and this method is in fact a new input-output model capable of tracing by-products as final outputs. Also, since traditional input-output structural analyses provide aggregate measures, a visual representation of input-output tables enabling researchers to perform disaggregated structural analyses and identify intersectoral patterns is developed. In chapter 4, a method to derive the full cyclic structure of the economic system is developed using network analysis within the Input-Output framework; it identifies the intersectoral cycles and the resources and emissions associated to cycling. It is shown that cyclic flows maximise the system throughput but lower the resource efficiency of the system vis-à-vis the system outputs. It is demonstrated that 1) the complete structure is composed of a cyclic-acyclic and a direct-indirect sub-structure, challenging the common understanding of the functioning of the structure, and 2) cycling is composed of pre-consumer cycling, post-consumer cycling, re-cycling and trans-cycling. In chapter 5, a set of indicators are developed to capture the weight and emissions associated to each sub-structure and the sub-structures are related to the economy's resource efficiency and emissions. In chapter 6, it is illustrated how to use the concepts, indicators and methods developed in previous chapters to identify strategies to improve the resource efficiency of the economy by altering its structure. Finally, in chapter 7, it is suggested to refine the definition of recycling to integrate the different systemic effects of pre-consumer and post-consumer cycling and it is argued that the ideal structure of a circular, close-loop economy should minimise its pre-consumer cycling in favour of more efficient acyclic flows while maximising its post-consumer cycling.

The text discusses some used methods for estimating potential product and output gaps based on aggregated data for the Czech Republic. Though these methods exhibit some common features, an empirical comparison demonstrates that the various techniques differ substantially. In particular, the correlation of output gaps calculated with different methods is generally low , the methods imply different turning points. To conclude, the methods for estimating potential product a used have only limited information content for macroeconomics.

The theme of my thesis is the evaluation employees in the selection organization. The aim of my work is presentment analysis and interpretation actual evaluation system situation and on the basis finding facts, practical experiences and theoretical knowledge gather from literature and from resources which deal with these problems and proposed a new system of evaluation the employees. This evaluation system will be instrumental to regular assessing of employees with respect to organization requirements, improvement employees achievement and their motivation and progress.

Yes / This paper investigates the stabilisation problem and consider transient optimisation for a class of the multi-input-multi-output (MIMO) semi-linear stochastic systems. A control algorithm is presented via an m-block backstepping controller design where the closed-loop system has been stabilized in a probabilistic sense and the transient performance is optimisable by optimised by searching the design parameters under the given criterion. In particular, the transient randomness and the probabilistic decoupling will be investigated as case studies. Note that the presented control algorithm can be potentially extended as a framework based on the various performance criteria. To evaluate the effectiveness of this proposed control framework, a numerical example is given with simulation results. In summary, the key contributions of this paper are stated as follows: 1) one block backstepping-based output feedback control design is developed to stabilize the dynamic MIMO semi-linear stochastic systems using a linear estimator; 2) the randomness and probabilistic couplings of the system outputs have been minimized based on the optimisation of the design parameters of the controller; 3) a control framework with transient performance enhancement of multi-variable semi-linear stochastic systems has been discussed. / Higher Education Innovation Fund (No. HEIF 2018-2020), De Montfort University, Leicester, UK.

Structured output learning is the machine learning task of building a classifier to predict structured outputs. Structured outputs arise in several contexts in diverse applications like natural language processing, computer vision, bioinformatics and social networks. Unlike the simple two(or multi)-class outputs which belong to a set of distinct or univariate categories, structured outputs are composed of multiple components with complex interdependencies amongst them. As an illustrative example ,consider the natural language processing task of tagging a sentence with its corresponding part-of-speech tags. The part-of-speech tag sequence is an example of a structured output as it is made up of multiple components, the interactions among them being governed by the underlying properties of the language. This thesis provides efficient solutions for different problems pertaining to structured output learning. The classifier for structured outputs is generally built by learning a suitable model from a set of training examples labeled with their associated structured outputs. Discriminative techniques like Structural Support Vector Machines(Structural SVMs) and Conditional Random Fields(CRFs) are popular alternatives developed for structured output learning. The thesis contributes towards developing efficient training strategies for structural SVMs. In particular, an efficient sequential optimization method is proposed for structural SVMs, which is faster than several competing methods. An extension of the sequential method to CRFs is also developed. The sequential method is adapted to a variant of structural SVM with linear cumulative loss. The thesis also presents a systematic empirical evaluation of various training methods available for structured output learning, which will be useful to the practitioner. To train structural SVMs in the presence of a vast number of training examples without labels, the thesis develops a simple semi-supervised technique based on switching the labels of the components of the structured output. The proposed technique is general and its efficacy is demonstrated using experiments on different benchmark applications. Another contribution of the thesis is towards the design of fast algorithms for sparse structured output learning. Efficient alternating optimization algorithms are developed for sparse classifier design. These algorithms are shown to achieve sparse models faster, when compared to existing methods.

The aim of the thesis is to analyse the governance of educational staff output in the nursery environment. The thesis highlights the need for governance based on the control of human resources agreed between the nursery director and the educational staff regarding the future work output. The theoretical part is concerned with the interactions between governance and personal work effort. The key terms of personal work effort, governance and the content of work output are defined in accordance with expert literature. The practical part deals with research investigations within the nursery environment with the aim of analysing the governance of educational staff. It will provide information as to whether nursery directors have formal governance contract in place with their staff with respect to the expected work output and whether the educational staff have a plan of personal development. It will additionaly analyse how both nursery directors and educational staff use the assessment of their future work and whether the staff are provided with feedback. A questionnaire will be used to enable the research. Based on the questionnaire results a semi-structured interview with the nursery director and analysis of nursery documents will be conducted.

This study seeks to analyse and quantify cross-border effects of discretionary fiscal policies from two major points of view. The aggregate approach rests on the use of the structural vector autoregression model (SVAR) and its extension, the global vector autoregression model (GVAR). The discretionary fiscal impulse itself is then defined as a change in cyclically adjusted balance of the government sector, calculated at quarterly frequencies. This section is then complemented by a case study of a single measure: the German car scrapping scheme during 2009 and its effects on the Czech economy. It was found that cross-border effects of discretionary fiscal policies may be indeed present, in case certain conditions are met. Importantly, a fiscal impulse has to originate from a sufficiently large economy and there needs to be a tight trade linkage between examined countries. In most cases, cross-border effects have also been found of lesser magnitude than direct impacts of fiscal policies on the domestic country. Finally, as demonstrated on the German-Czech case, even a single fiscal measure can trigger substantial cross-border spillovers. It was estimated that this measure positively contributed to real GDP growth in 2009 in the Czech Republic by 0.44 pp.

Abstract This thesis explored innovative ways to improve estimation of material footprint-type indicators in application of Input-Output (IO) analysis to Material Flow Accounting. The following six research questions were addressed: 1) What is the potential impact of sector aggregation in IO modelling of raw material flows? Modelling errors due to aggregation of industries with dissimilar material requirements and trade structures into a single sector in IO models when calculating the material footprint were empirically analysed relative to greenhouse gas emissions. Significant biases emerged for raw material flows, which suggests that care should be taken when aggregating extractive sectors in IO models. 2) Can bottom-up approaches, such as LCA (Life Cycle Assessment), improve estimation of the raw materials embodied in trade products? and 3) What are the implications of integration of country-specific information from high geographical coverage IO models into LCA approaches for calculation of raw material embodied in trade products? An approach for combining country-specific production blueprints with LCA based on regional averages was developed. This approach proved useful in refining estimates of upstream raw materials embodied in trade products, although care is needed during its application since new biases may arise. 4) Can further perspectives be gained with a new allocation method, the ‘value added-based material footprint’, which assigns supply chain-wide raw material extractions to each participating economic actor according to its added value generation, contributing to discussions on the distribution of mitigation costs? Certain countries and sectors were found to be more material-intensive with this new accounting approach than in other widely known allocation methods, e.g. consumer footprint. 5) Are there unequal exchanges between high-income economies and middle- and lower-income countries when measured in terms of raw material and value added flows? and 6) Could integration of local and global IO data provide useful insights to study presence/absence of unequal material exchange at sub-national level? A study of material flows at inter- and intra-national level demonstrated that a regional economy can play a twofold role, both as sink or source of raw materials and in value added, depending on its position in the global economic hierarchy. / Tiivistelmä Tässä työssä tutkittiin innovatiivisia tapoja, joilla voitaisiin parantaa materiaalijalanjälki -tyyppisten indikaattoreiden käytettävyyttä panos-tuotos (Input-Output, IO) -analyysissa, kun niitä sovelletaan Materiaalivirta-analyysi (Material Flow Accounting, MFA) -metodiin. Seuraaviin tutkimuskysymyksiin haettiin vastauksia: 1) Mikä on sektorien yhdistämisen potentiaalinen vaikutus raaka-ainevirtojen IO-mallintamisessa ja miten poikkeamia voidaan estää? Tämän puitteissa tarkasteltiin mallinnusvirheitä, jotka johtuvat erilaisten toimialojen yhdistämisistä yhdeksi sektoriksi. 2) Voivatko alhaalta ylöspäin suuntautuvat lähestymistavat, kuten elinkaariarviointi parantaa tuotteisiin sisältyvien raaka-ainevirtojen arviointia? ja 3) Mitä vaikutuksia on laajan maantieteellisen kattavuuden IO-malleihin sisältyvien maakohtaisten tietojen yhdistämisestä LCA-pohjaisiin lähestymistapoihin, kun tavoitteena on laskea tuotteisiin sisältyviä raaka-ainemääriä? Tämän tutkimista varten kehitettiin lähestymistapa, joka yhdisti maakohtaiset tuotantosuunnitelmat ja elinkaariarvioinnin. Tämä lähestymistapa osoittautui hyödylliseksi tarkentamalla arvioita tuotteissa olevista raaka-aineista, vaikkakin sen soveltaminen edellyttää varovaisuutta, koska uusia vääristymiä voi syntyä. 4) Voidaanko uusia näkökulmia löytää uudella arvonlisäykseen perustuvalla allokointimenetelmällä, joka jakaa raaka-aineen louhinnan kullekin toimintaketjun osallistuvalle taloudelliselle toimijalle lisäarvon tuotannon mukaan? Tämän uuden kirjanpitomenetelmän mukaan jotkut maat ja alat ovat materiaali-intensiivisempiä kuin niitä on pidetty kulutuksen jalanjälkiallokointimenetelmien perusteella. 5) Onko korkean tulotason talouksien ja keskitasoiselle ja alhaiselle tulotasolle asettuvien maiden välillä epätasaisia vaihtoja, kun raaka-ainekulutusta ja arvonlisäystä mitataan? ja 6) Voisiko paikallisten ja globaalien IO-tietojen integrointi antaa hyödyllisiä näkökulmia tutkimukseen, joka tarkastelee epätasaisen aineenvaihdon esiintymistä tai puuttumista alueellisella tasolla? Materiaalivirtojen tutkiminen kansainvälisellä ja kansallisella tasolla, jossa yhdistettiin IO-tietokannat erilaisella maantieteellisellä resoluutiolla osoitti, että alueellisella taloudella voi olla kaksoisrooli sekä raaka-aineiden että arvonlisäyksen lähteenä tai nieluna riippuen sen asemasta globaalissa taloushierarkiassa.