Climatic variation is an important driver of avian life history and population dynamics. Climate change models predict increased variability for many regions and to predict the effects on species, we need to examine how their life history characteristics influence their response to climate. I studied how environmental conditions influenced the ecology of white-tailed (Lagopus leucura) and rock ptarmigan (L. mutus) in tundra habitats of the southern Yukon Territory. Although sympatric in the study area, breeding territories were generally segregated, with white-tailed ptarmigan selecting steep, rocky slopes at higher elevations and rock ptarmigan preferring lower elevation sedge meadows. For both species, cold spring temperatures delayed the onset of breeding, resulting in smaller clutch sizes and fewer hatched young per female. However, delayed breeding led to a stronger reduction in these rates for rock ptarmigan, suggesting a lower resilience to extend reproductive effort in colder years. White-tailed ptarmigan were also more likely to re-nest following failure and had higher daily nest survival, both of which contributed to greater annual productivity compared to rock ptarmigan. Annual adult survival showed the opposite pattern to productivity as rock ptarmigan survival was 24 percent higher than white-tailed ptarmigan. This finding suggested a reproduction-survival trade-off exists for the two species, which may be driven by differing susceptibility to environmental factors in the region. Life history theory predicts that if the likelihood of future breeding opportunities is low, individuals should increase current reproductive effort, which may explain why white-tailed ptarmigan have longer breeding seasons and higher reproductive effort under unfavourable climatic conditions. Population models showed that growth rates (λ)were approximately stable for rock ptarmigan (λ=1.01), but declining for white-tailed ptarmigan (λ=0.96). Simulations showed that warmer spring temperatures over the next few decades would elevate λ by ~0.05 for both species, but the extent of increase in λ may be reduced with more variable spring conditions. Population growth will also depend on how changing winter conditions influence survival for each species. Model simulations suggest that if juvenile and adult survival are positively correlated, rock ptarmigan would be more resilient to severe years that simultaneously depress reproduction and survival.

In the context of ecological risk assessment of chemicals, individual-based population models hold great potential to increase the ecological realism of current regulatory risk assessment procedures. However, developing and parameterizing such models is time-consuming and often ad hoc. Using standardized, tested submodels of individual organisms would make individual-based modelling more efficient and coherent. In this thesis, I explored whether Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory is suitable for being used as a standard submodel in individual-based models, both for ecological risk assessment and theoretical population ecology. First, I developed a generic implementation of DEB theory in an individual-based modeling (IBM) context: DEB-IBM. Using the DEB-IBM framework I tested the ability of the DEB theory to predict population-level dynamics from the properties of individuals. We used Daphnia magna as a model species, where data at the individual level was available to parameterize the model, and population-level predictions were compared against independent data from controlled population experiments. We found that DEB theory successfully predicted population growth rates and peak densities of experimental Daphnia populations in multiple experimental settings, but failed to capture the decline phase, when the available food per Daphnia was low. Further assumptions on food-dependent mortality of juveniles were needed to capture the population dynamics after the initial population peak. The resulting model then predicted, without further calibration, characteristic switches between small- and large-amplitude cycles, which have been observed for Daphnia. We conclude that cross-level tests help detecting gaps in current individual-level theories and ultimately will lead to theory development and the establishment of a generic basis for individual-based models and ecology. In addition to theoretical explorations, we tested the potential of DEB theory combined with IBMs to extrapolate effects of chemical stress from the individual to population level. For this we used information at the individual level on the effect of 3,4-dichloroanailine on Daphnia. The individual data suggested direct effects on reproduction but no significant effects on growth. Assuming such direct effects on reproduction, the model was able to accurately predict the population response to increasing concentrations of 3,4-dichloroaniline. We conclude that DEB theory combined with IBMs holds great potential for standardized ecological risk assessment based on ecological models. / Für die ökologische Risikobewertung von Chemikalien sind individuenbasierte Populationsmodelle ein vielversprechendes Werkzeug um heutige Bewertungen ökologisch realistischer zu gestalten. Allerdings ist die Entwicklung und Parametrisierung derartiger Modelle zeitaufwendig und oft wenig systematisch. Standardisierte, geprüfte Untermodelle, die Einzelorganismen beschreiben, würden die individuenbasierte Modellierung effizienter und kohärenter machen. In meiner Dissertation habe ich daher untersucht, inwieweit sich die Dynamic Energy Budget-Theorie (DEB) als Standardmodell innerhalb individuenbasierter Populationsmodelle eignet, und zwar sowohl für die ökologische Risikobewertung als auch für die theoretische Populationsökologie. Zunächst habe ich eine generische Implementierung der DEB-Theorie im Rahmen individuenbasierter Modellen (IBM) erstellt: DEB-IBM. Dieses Werkzeug nutzend habe ich dann untersucht, ob es mit Hilfe der DEB-Theorie gelingt, ausgehend von den Eigenschaften und Aktivitäten einzelner Individuen, Populationsdynamik vorherzusagen. Wir nutzten dabei Daphnia magna als Modellart, für die Daten auf der Individuenebene verfügbar waren, um das Modell zu parametrisieren, sowie Populationsdaten, mit denen Modellvorhersagen verglichen werden konnten. DEB-Theorie war in der Lage, beobachtete Populationswachstumsraten sowie die maximalen Abundanzen korrekt vorherzusagen, und zwar für verschiedene Umweltbedingungen. Für Phasen des Rückgangs der Population allerdings, wenn die für die Daphnien verfügbare Nahrungsmenge gering war, kam es zu Abweichungen. Es waren deshalb zusätzliche Annahmen über nahrungsabhängige Sterblichkeit von juvenilen Daphnien erforderlich, um die gesamte Populationsdynamik korrekt vorherzusagen. Das resultierende Modell konnte dann, ohne weitere Kalibrierungen, den für Daphnien charakteristischen Wechsel zwischen Populationszyklen mit großen und kleinen Amplituden richtig vorhersagen. Wir folgern daraus, daß Ebenen übergreifende Tests dabei helfen, Lücken in aktuellen Theorien über Einzelorganismen aufzudecken Dies trägt zur Theorieentwicklung bei und liefert Grundlagen für individuenbasierte Modellierung und Ökologie. Über diese Grundlagenfragen hinaus haben wir überprüft, ob DEB-Theorie in Kombination mit IBMs es ermöglicht, den Effekt von chemischem Streß auf Individuen auf die Populationsebene zu extrapolieren. Wir nutzten Daten über die Auswirkungen von 3,4 Dichloroanalin auf einzelne Daphnien, die zeigten daß im Wesentlichen die Reproduktion, nicht aber das Wachstum beeinträchtigt ist. Mit entsprechenden Annahmen konnte unser Modell den Effekt auf Populationsebene, für den unabhängige Daten vorlagen, korrekt vorhersagen. DEB-Theorie in Kombination mit individuenbasierter Modellierung birgt somit großes Potential für einen standardisierten modellbasierten Ansatz in der ökologischen Risikobewertung von Chemikalien.

No description available.

No description available.

The Brenton Blue butterfly, Orachrysops niobe (Trimen) is currently only known to be extant at one locality in the southern Cape (the Brenton Blue Butterfly Reserve = BBBR), and currently globally Red Listed as "Critically Endangered". This research investigates the life history and ecological interactions of o. niobe and recommends management techniques for the BBBR. Adult nectar sources and female oviposition behaviour are described. The first two larval instars feed on the leaflets of the host plant Indigofera erecta Thunb., and the 3rd and 4th instar larvae feed on this plant's woody rootstock, attended by ants Camponotus baynei Arnold. Cannibalism takes place in the early larval stages. Adults emerge from late October - early December, from late January to early March, and occasionally there is a third brood in April. Morphological and behavioural features of the larvae are described, and larval growth patterns are compared to other polyommatines. The nature of the myrmecophilous behaviour is assessed and the phylogenetic relationships between Orachrysops, Euchrysops, Lepidochrysops, and other polyommatine genera are discussed. Ant assemblages at the BBBR are described from pitfall trap sampling and field observations of interactions between O. niobe larvae and ants. The ant assemblages at the BBBR, Nature's Valley Fynbos Reserve (NVFR) and Uitzicht 216/ 40 are compared. The potential impact of the Argentine ant at the BBBR is discussed. Adult and egg counts are used to study the population dynamics of O. niobe, leading to an estimate of the adult butterfly population and its fluctuations. A population dynamics model is constructed, and several factors impacting fecundity and mortality are assessed. Population studies on other polyommatines are compared and discussed. The morphology, reproductive biology and autoecology of the papilionoid legume I. erecta are described. An explanation is offered why the larvae of O. niobe are monophagous on this plant. Microhabitat variations cause changes in its vegetative morphology and this further explains the restricted range of O. niobe. The population dynamics of I. erecta is investigated and the effects of biotic and abiotic factors (including fire) assessed. Braun Blanquet methodology is used to sample and classify the vegetation communities at the BBBR. Ordination techniques are used to confirm the classification and to diagnose for environmental gradients. Hypotheses are generated about the ecological processes functioning at the site, and the environmental niche occupied by I. erecta. Correlations between the occurrence xxii of vegetation types and other plant species and I. erecta are sought and a strong association with Pterocelastrus tricuspidatus is demonstrated. Three study sites are described and the ecological history of the region is reconstructed. Ecosystems are no longer fully functional because natural fire regimes and megaherbivores are absent. It is suggested that O. niobe currently inhabits an interglacial refugium under stress from the current global warming trend. The remaining suitable habitat is threatened by coastal property development and environmental degradation. An increased population of o. niobe at the BBBR, and establishment of new populations is essential to avoid extinction. Management techniques are evaluated and a management strategy for the BBBR is proposed. / Thesis (Ph.D. (Environmental Science))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2006.

Near the beginning of the last century, R. A. Fisher and Sewall Wright devised an elegant, mathematically tractable model of gene reproduction and replacement that laid the foundation for contemporary population genetics. The Wright-Fisher model and its extensions have given biologists powerful tools of statistical inference that enabled the quantification of genetic drift and selection. Given the utility of these tools, we often forget that their model - for reasons of mathematical tractability - makes assumptions that are violated in many real-world populations. In particular, the classical models assume fixed population sizes, held constant by (unspecified) sampling mechanisms. Here, we consider an alternative framework that merges Moran’s continuous time Markov chain model of allele frequencies in haploid populations of fixed size with the density dependent models of ecological competition of Lotka, Volterra, Gause, and Kolmogorov. This allows for haploid populations of stochastically varying – but bounded – size. Populations are kept finite by resource limitation. We show the existence of limits that naturally generalize the weak and strong selection regimes of classical population genetics, which allow the calculation of fixation times and probabilities, as well as the long-term stationary allele frequency distribution.

Forest tent caterpillar (Malacosoma disstria Hübner; FTC), a major defoliator of aspen trees, occupies both aspen and mixedwood forest stands in Alberta’s boreal forest. Forest stand composition could influence the spatial pattern of FTC outbreaks if mortality from natural enemies differs between stand types. I conducted field experiments to determine whether predator- or parasitoid-caused mortality of FTC differed between aspen and mixedwood forest stands and developed a spatial population model to determine the effects of variation in generalist predation on the spread of an FTC outbreak, including the effects of potential predator-caused Allee effects. Generalist predation on FTC was higher in aspen stands than in mixedwood stands, and the spatial model suggests that these observed differences may be sufficiently large to impact FTC outbreak spread rates. Forest stand composition may contribute to the spatial pattern of FTC outbreaks through variation in the impacts of predators on FTC populations. / Ecology

Climatic variation is an important driver of avian life history and population dynamics. Climate change models predict increased variability for many regions and to predict the effects on species, we need to examine how their life history characteristics influence their response to climate. I studied how environmental conditions influenced the ecology of white-tailed (Lagopus leucura) and rock ptarmigan (L. mutus) in tundra habitats of the southern Yukon Territory. Although sympatric in the study area, breeding territories were generally segregated, with white-tailed ptarmigan selecting steep, rocky slopes at higher elevations and rock ptarmigan preferring lower elevation sedge meadows. For both species, cold spring temperatures delayed the onset of breeding, resulting in smaller clutch sizes and fewer hatched young per female. However, delayed breeding led to a stronger reduction in these rates for rock ptarmigan, suggesting a lower resilience to extend reproductive effort in colder years. White-tailed ptarmigan were also more likely to re-nest following failure and had higher daily nest survival, both of which contributed to greater annual productivity compared to rock ptarmigan. Annual adult survival showed the opposite pattern to productivity as rock ptarmigan survival was 24 percent higher than white-tailed ptarmigan. This finding suggested a reproduction-survival trade-off exists for the two species, which may be driven by differing susceptibility to environmental factors in the region. Life history theory predicts that if the likelihood of future breeding opportunities is low, individuals should increase current reproductive effort, which may explain why white-tailed ptarmigan have longer breeding seasons and higher reproductive effort under unfavourable climatic conditions. Population models showed that growth rates (λ)were approximately stable for rock ptarmigan (λ=1.01), but declining for white-tailed ptarmigan (λ=0.96). Simulations showed that warmer spring temperatures over the next few decades would elevate λ by ~0.05 for both species, but the extent of increase in λ may be reduced with more variable spring conditions. Population growth will also depend on how changing winter conditions influence survival for each species. Model simulations suggest that if juvenile and adult survival are positively correlated, rock ptarmigan would be more resilient to severe years that simultaneously depress reproduction and survival.

Diss. (sammanfattning) Uppsala : Sveriges lantbruksuniv. / Härtill 5 uppsatser.

Diss. (sammanfattning) Umeå : Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet, 2005. / Härtill 6 uppsatser.