>Magister Scientiae - MSc / Purpose:This research investigates the existence of long-term equilibrium relationships among the stock market indices of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS). It further investigates cointegrated stock pairs for possible implementation of statistical arbitrage trading techniques.Design:We utilize standard multivariate time series analysis procedures to inspect unit roots to assess stationarity of the series. Thereafter, cointegration is tested by the Johansen and Juselius (1990) procedure and the variables are interpreted by a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Statistical arbitrage is investigated through the pairs trading technique.Findings:The five stock indices are found to be cointegrated. Analysis shows that the cointegration rank among the variables is significantly influenced by structural breaks. Two pairs of stock variables are also found to be cointegrated. This guaranteed the mean reversion property necessary for the successful execution of the pairs trading technique. Determining the optimal spread threshold also proved to be highly significant with respect to the success of this trading technique.Value:This research seeks to expand on the literature covering long-run co-movements of the volatile emerging market indices. Based on the cointegration relation shared by the BRICS, the research also seeks to encourage risk taking when investing. We achieve this by showing the potential rewards that can be realized through employing appropriate statistical arbitrage trading techniques in these markets.

published_or_final_version / Statistics and Actuarial Science / Master / Master of Philosophy

This thesis analyzes the performance and process of constructing portfolios of cryptocurrency pairs based on cointegrated relationships indicated by the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test, Johansen’s test and Phillips Peron’s test. Pairs are tested for cointegration over a 3-month and a 6-month window and then traded over a trading window of the same length. The cryptocurrencies included in the study are 14 cryptocurrencies with the highest market capitalization on April 24th 2019. One trading strategy has been applied on every portfolio following the 3-month and the 6-month methodology with thresholds at 1.75 and stop-losses at 4 standard deviations. The performance of each portfolio is compared with their corresponding buy and hold benchmark. All portfolios outperformed their buy and hold benchmark, with and without transaction costs set to 2%. Following the 3-month methodology was superior to the 6- month method and the portfolios formed through Phillips Peron’s test had the highest return for both window methods.

Li, Ming Hin. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2011. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 42-46). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter 2 --- Inference for Fractional Cointegration --- p.5 / Chapter 2.1 --- Concept of Fractional Cointegration --- p.5 / Chapter 2.1.1 --- Fractional Integration --- p.5 / Chapter 2.1.2 --- Fractional Cointegration --- p.8 / Chapter 2.2 --- Fractional Cointegration Modeling --- p.9 / Chapter 2.2.1 --- Engle-Granger's Methodology --- p.9 / Chapter 2.2.2 --- Johansen's Methodology --- p.10 / Chapter 2.2.2.1 --- Maximum Likelihood Estimators --- p.12 / Chapter 2.2.2.2 --- Cofractional Rank Test --- p.16 / Chapter 3 --- Pairs Trading Strategy --- p.19 / Chapter 3.1 --- Statistical Arbitrage --- p.19 / Chapter 3.2 --- Fractional Cointegration Pairs Trading --- p.20 / Chapter 3.2.1 --- Trading Procedures --- p.22 / Chapter 4 --- Empirical Study --- p.27 / Chapter 4.1 --- Backgrounds --- p.27 / Chapter 4.2 --- Settings --- p.28 / Chapter 4.3 --- Empirical Results --- p.29 / Chapter 5 --- Conclusions and Further Research --- p.39 / Bibliography --- p.42

In this paper we show that pairs of stocks which have a true long run equilibrium (cointegration) yield a higher return than pairs of stocks that relies on a more spurious relationship (correlation) when applying Pairs Trading for a trading period from 31/12-09 to 25/6-14. We get an annual return for the cointegration portfolio of 4,15%, with a Sharpe-ratio of 0,87. For the correlated portfolio we get 2,08% and 0,45, respectively. The Sharpe-ratio for a buy-and-hold market index during the same period was 1,08.

This thesis investigates the long- and short- run stability of Cointegrated dual share equity pairs on the Swedish Equity Market. Testing for a cointegrated relationship on each pair are executed for a 13 year period to establish the cointegrated pairs. The stability of each cointegrated pair is then estimated using a rolling two year period. An Arbitrage Trading strategy is applied to the cointegrated pairs for the following one year period. The long-run relationship of the pairs are found to be stable. The short-term relationship varies from pair to pair, where some pairs break their cointegrated relationship for some time periods. But generally, most pairs are stable over the short- term as well. The trading strategy generate the highest returns during volatile market conditions and underperforms during positive market conditions with low volatility. The Sharpe ratio is far better than the Index during the whole period.

This paper examines the (in contemporary literature inconclusive) usefulness ofcointegration between stock prices as basis for a trading strategy. The primary contributionto previously used frameworks of the paper is the implementation and use of error correctionmodels for selection of stocks to trade on. Evaluation is done through simulated resultsrunning the algorithm on the sectors of the Standard and Poor’s 500 index in the years 2005through 2014. Results indicate that trading strategies of this nature may be very successfuleven in recent years given that the universe of tradeable stocks within a sector is sufficientlylarge. The application of error correction models improve average returns, though in a waynot originally anticipated.

In this thesis, the aim is to investigate whether a pairs trading strategy on Swedish stocks can generate a higher risk-adjusted return compared to a buy-and-hold strategy on a benchmark index. The benchmark index is the OMX Stockholm Benchmark-index (OMXSBPI), which is an index that should reflect the Swedish market in general. With a statistical focus, a trading algorithm is built which is then evaluated on data between the years 2018 to 2021. The statistical concepts this thesis is based on are stationarity and cointegration and it is the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test that forms the basis for being able to test these concepts. The risk-adjusted return for the strategy is evaluated using the popular measure Sharpe ratio, which is then compared to the Sharpe ratio for the OMXSBPI-index. The results obtained in this study can not confirm that the pairs trading strategy is better than a buy-and-hold strategy on the OMXSBPI-index in terms of risk-adjusted return. One indication, however, is that the strategy seems to perform better in conditions when the market is declining. In 2018, the index went down by 7.7060 while the strategy went up by 7.5100 percent. As it is data for only one year, it is not possible to determine whether it is due to chance or a potential edge of the strategy.

Thesis (Ph.D. (Risk Management))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2008.

Although a pair trading is well known among South African agricultural commodity traders, there are no comprehensive documented accounts for the selection and trading of agricultural commodity pairs in South Africa. The majority of agricultural commodity pairs traders take positions based on their personal view of price movements, without testing for a statistical relationship between the paired commodities that will guarantee that their prices will move back to a common mean. To remedy this lack of method regarding the pairs selection and pairs trading processes, a comprehensive pairs selection process was developed and is documented in this thesis. During the pairs selection process, several agricultural commodities were put through a rigorous evaluation process to test for any long-run statistical relationships between them. This was done to ensure that only pairs with stable long-run statistical relationships were included in the final pair’s portfolio that was compiled. In order to test the profitability of this pair’s portfolio, several fundamental and technical indicators were used to determine entry and exit points. Although some of these indicators did not render satisfactory results, the RSI and Bollinger bands succeeded in realising an acceptable profit. / Thesis (Ph.D. (Risk Management))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2008.