Unmanned Underwater Vehicles (UUV) in open-seas are highly nonlinear with system motions. Because of the complex interaction of the body with environment it is difficult to control them efficiently. Linearization is applied to system in order to design controllers developed for linear systems. To overcome the effects of disturbances, a mathematical model which will compensate all disturbances and effects of linearization is required. In this study first a mathematical model is formed wherein the linear and nonlinear hydrodynamic coeffi- cients are calculated with strip theory. After the basic mathematical model is developed, it is simplified and decoupled into speed, steering and diving subsystems. Consequently PID (Proportional Derivative Integral), SMC (SlidingMode Control) and LQR (Linear Quadratic Regulator)/LQG (Linear Quadratic Gaussian) control methods can be applied on each subsystem to design controllers. Some of the system parameters can be estimated from state vector data based on measurements using the methods of linear sequential estimation and genetic algorithms. As for the final part of the study, an online obstacle avoidance algorithm which avoids local optimums using Boolean operators is presented. In addition a simple guidance algorithm is suggested for waypoint navigation. Due to the fact that ULISAR UUV is still on construction phase, we were unable to test our algorithms. But in the near future, we plan to study all these algorithms on the UUV ULISAR.

In some production environments the defect rates are considerably low such that measurement of fraction of nonconforming items reaches parts per million level. In such environments, monitoring the number of conforming items between consecutive nonconforming items, namely the time between events (TBE) is often suggested. However, in the design of control charts for TBE monitoring a common practice is the assumptions of known process parameters. Nevertheless, in many applications the true values of the process parameters are not known. Their estimates should be determined from a sample obtained from the process at a time when it is expected to operate in a state of statistical control. Additional variability introduced through sampling may significantly effect the performance of a control chart. In this study, the effect of parameter estimation on the performance of Time Between Events Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (TBE EWMA) schemes is examined. Conditional performance is evaluated to show the effect of estimation. Marginal performance is analyzed in order to make recommendations on sample size requirements. Markov chain approach is used for evaluating the results.

In vector control of induction motors it is essential to know the parameters of the motor. Known approaches to this problem have some drawbacks. This thesis work is planned to develop solutions to the existing problems. The proposed solutions will be implemented and tested.

In this thesis a number of improvements have been established for specific methods which utilize sequential Monte Carlo (SMC), aka. Particle filtering (PF) techniques. The first problem is the Bayesian multi-target tracking (MTT) problem for which we propose the use of non-parametric Bayesian models that are based on time varying extension of Dirichlet process (DP) models. The second problem studied in this thesis is an important application area for the proposed DP based MTT method / the tracking of vocal tract resonance frequencies of the speech signals. Lastly, we investigate SMC based parameter estimation problem of nonlinear non-Gaussian state space models in which we provide a performance improvement for the path density based methods by utilizing regularization techniques.

Vehicle handling models are commonly used in the design and analysis of vehicle dynamics. Especially, with the advances in vehicle control systems need for accurate and simple vehicle handling models have increased. These models have parameters, some of which are known or easily obtainable, yet some of which are unknown or difficult to obtain. These parameters are obtained by system identification, which is the study of building model from experimental data. In this thesis, identification of vehicle handling models is based on data obtained from the simulation of complex vehicle dynamics model from ADAMS representing the real vehicle and a general methodology has been developed. Identified vehicle handling models are the linear bicycle model and vehicle roll models with different tire models. Changes of sensitivity of the model outputs to model parameters with steering input frequency have been examined by sensitivity analysis to design the test input. To show that unknown parameters of the model can be identified uniquely, structural identifiability analysis has been performed. Minimizing the difference between the data obtained from the simulation of ADAMS vehicle model and the data obtained from the simulation of simple handling models by mathematical optimization methods, unknown parameters have been estimated and handling models have been identified. Estimation task has been performed using MATLAB Simulink Parameter Estimation Toolbox. By model validation it has been shown that identified handling models represent the vehicle system successfully.

Short range thrusting projectiles are one of the various threats against armored vehicles and helicopters on the battlefield. Developing a countermeasure for this kind of projectiles is very crucial since they are vast in number and easy to operate on the battlefield. A countermeasure may consist of fire point prediction of the projectile and attack the launcher of it, or it may be the impact point prediction of the projectile and apply a hard-kill counter measure on its way to the ally target. For both of the countermeasure concepts, dynamics and parameters of the projectile must be estimated precisely. In this thesis, dynamic models for thrusting and ballistic flight modes of thrusting projectile are obtained. Three different tracking filters are suggested for precise tracking of the projectiles and their estimation performances are compared. These filters are the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF), the Particle Filter (PF) and the Marginalized Particle Filter (MPF).

The conventional method of thermal modeling of space payloads is expensive and cumbersome. Radiation plays an important part in the thermal modeling of space payloads because of the presence of vacuum and deep space viewing. This induces strong nonlinearities into the thermal modeling process. There is a need for extensive correlation between the model and test data. This thesis presents Online Parameter Estimation as an approach to automate the thermal modeling process. The extended Kalman fillter (EKF) is the most widely used parameter estimation algorithm for nonlinear models. The unscented Kalman filter (UKF) is a new and more accurate technique for parameter estimation. These parameter estimation techniques have been evaluated with respect to data from ground tests conducted on an experimental space payload.

Fault detection and diagnosis have gained central importance in the chemical process industries over the past decade. This is due to several reasons, one of them being that copious amount of data is available from a large number of sensors in process plants. Moreover, since industrial processes operate in closed loop with appropriate output feedback to attain certain performance objectives, instrument faults have a direct effect on the overall performance of the automation system. Extracting essential information about the state of the system and processing the measurements for detecting, discriminating, and identifying abnormal readings are important tasks of a fault diagnosis system. The goal of this dissertation is to develop such fault diagnosis systems, which use limited information about the process model to robustly detect, discriminate, and reconstruct instrumentation faults. Broadly, the proposed method consists of a novel nonlinear state and parameter estimator coupled with a fault detection, discrimination, and reconstruction system. The first part of this dissertation focuses on designing fault diagnosis systems that not only perform fault detection and isolation but also estimate the shape and size of the unknown instrument faults. This notion is extended to nonlinear processes whose structure is known but the parameters of the process are a priori uncertain and bounded. Since the uncertainty in the process model and instrument fault detection interact with each other, a novel two-time scale procedure is adopted to render overall fault diagnosis. Further, some techniques to enhance the convergence properties of the proposed state and parameter estimator are presented. The remaining part of the dissertation extends the proposed model-based fault diagnosis methodology to processes for which first principles modeling is either expensive or infeasible. This is achieved by using an empirical model identification technique called subspace identification for state-space characterization of the process. Finally the proposed methodology for fault diagnosis has been applied in numerical simulations to a non-isothermal CSTR (continuous stirred tank reactor), an industrial melter process, and a debutanizer plant.

We quantify the effects on contingent claim valuation of using an estimator for the volatility of a geometric Brownian motion (GBM) process. That is, we show what difficulties can arise when failing to account for estimation risk. Our working problem uses a direct estimator of volatility based on the sample standard deviation of increments from the underlying Brownian motion. After substituting into the GBM the direct volatility estimator for the true, but unknown, value of the parameter sigma, we derive the resulting marginal distribution of the approximated GBM. This allows us to derive post-estimation distributions and valuation formulae for an assortment of European contingent claims that are in accord with the basic properties of the underlying risk-neutral process. Next we extend our work to the contingent claim sensitivities associated with an assortment of European option portfolios that are based on the direct estimator of the volatility of the GBM process. Our approach to the option sensitivities - the Greeks - uses the likelihood function technique. This allows us to obtain computable results for the technically more-complicated formulae associated with our post-estimation process. We discuss an assortment of difficulties that can ensue when failing to account for estimation risk in valuation and hedging formulae.

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