Orientador: Ronei Jesus Poppi / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Química / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-22T08:18:21Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Avila_ThiagoCarvalhode_M.pdf: 7831860 bytes, checksum: 010f2295e00f097a9ecfaf3f498a7069 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013 / Resumo: Este trabalho visou o uso de Espectroscopia Raman e de Quimiometria para monitoramento e controle da fermentação de glicose por Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Na primeira etapa, foi utilizada calibração multivariada baseada no método dos Mínimos Quadrados Parciais (PLS) para quantificação de glicose, etanol, glicerol, ácido acético e células. Os modelos foram desenvolvidos baseados nos valores de concentração obtidos pelos métodos de referência, cromatografia líquida de alta eficiência ¿ HPLC e espectrofotometria UV/Vis. Tanto na etapa de calibração quanto na de validação, a otimização foi realizada com eliminação de amostras anômalas, baseada nos valores de leverage, resíduos e escores. Na segunda etapa, cartas de controle multivariadas foram usadas para identificação de falhas em bateladas durante o processo de fermentação. Foram construídos modelos MPCA (Análise de Componentes Principais Multimodo) a partir de bateladas NOC (Condições Normais de Operação). As cartas de controle multivariadas foram aplicadas em dois modos de desdobramento dos dados obtidos durante o monitoramento, um preservando a direção das bateladas e outro a direção do tempo. As falhas estudadas foram temperatura, mudança no substrato e contaminação do sistema. No modo de desdobramento por bateladas, a carta de controle Q foi eficiente para detecção das falhas estudas, fato comprovado pela classificação correta de três bateladas NOC como dentro de controle. No entanto, a carta de controle T2 não foi capaz de identificar as falhas estudadas corretamente como fora de controle. O modo de desdobramento pelo tempo também apresentou classificações corretas das falhas estudadas / Abstract: This work aims the use of Raman Spectroscopy and Chemometrics in the monitoring and control in the fermentation of the glucose by Saccharomyces cerevisiae. In the first step, it was applied the multivariate calibration based on Partial Least Squares (PLS) for the quantification of glucose, ethanol, glycerol, acetic acid and cells. The developed of calibration models was performed against the concentration values obtained by the reference methods, High Performance Liquid Chromatography and UV/Vis spectrophotometer. The optimization of the calibration and validation steps, the elimination of outliers was performed based on the values of leverage, residues and scores. In the second step, multivariate control charts were used for identification of batch-fault during the fermentation process. Multi-way Principal Component Analysis (MPCA) models were developed from batch NOC (Normal Operation Conditions). The multivariate control charts were based on two modes of unfolding the multi-way data, obtained during monitoring, one preserving the direction of the batch and another the direction of time. The fault studied were temperature, changes in the substrate and contamination of the system. In unfolding batch mode, the chart Q was effective for detection of the faults studied, proven by the correctly classification of 3 NOC batches as in control. However, the chart T2 failed to identify faults studied. The unfolding in time mode, also presented correct classifications of the faults studied / Mestrado / Quimica Analitica / Mestre em Química

Seasonal allergic rhinitis (SAR) is a disease caused by allergens from both environmental and genetic factors. Some researchers have studied the SAR based on traditional genetic methodologies. As technology develops, a new technique called single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) is developed, which can generate high-dimension data. We apply two machine learning (ML) algorithms, random forest (RF) and partial least squares discriminant analysis (PLS-DA), for cell source classification and gene selection based on the SAR scRNA-seq time-series data from three allergic patients and four healthy controls denoised by single-cell variational inference (scVI). We additionally propose a new fitting method consisting of bootstrap and cubic smoothing splines to fit the averaged gene expressions per cell from different populations. To sum up, we find that both RF and PLS-DA could provide high classification accuracy, and RF is more preferable, considering its stable performance and strong gene-selection ability. Based on our analysis, there are 10 genes having discriminatory power to classify cells of allergic patients and healthy controls at any timepoints. Although there is no literature founded to show the direct connections between such 10 genes and SAR, the potential associations are indirectly confirmed by some studies. It shows a possibility that we can alarm allergic patients before a disease outbreak based on their genetic information. Meanwhile, our experiment results indicate that ML algorithms may discover something between genes and SAR compared with traditional techniques, which needs to be analyzed in genetics in the future.

Insurance has been considered as a useful tool for farmers to mitigate income volatility. However, there remain concerns that insurance may distort crop production decisions. Positive mathematical programming (PMP) models of farmers’ cropping decisions can be applied to study the effect of agricultural business risk management (BRM) policies on farmers’ decisions on land use and their incomes. Before being used to examine agricultural producer responses to policy changes under the expected utility framework, the models must first be calibrated to obtain the values of the risk aversion coefficient and the cost function parameters. In chapter 2, three calibration approaches are compared for disentangling the risk parameter from the parameters of the cost function. Then, in chapter 3, to investigate the impacts on production incentives of changes in Canada’s AgriStability program, farm management models are calibrated for farms with different cost structures for three different Alberta regions. Results indicate that farmers’ observed attitudes towards risk vary with cost structure. After joining the program, all farmers alter their land allocations to some extent. The introduction of a reference margin limit (RML) in the AgriStability program under Growing Forward 2 (2013-2018), which was retained in the replacement legislation until 2020, has the most negative impact on farmers with the lowest costs. The removal of RML significantly increases the benefits to low-cost farmers. Traditional insurance products provide financial support to farmers. However, for fruit farmers, the products’ quality can be greatly affected by the weather conditions during the stage of fruit development and ripening, which may lead to quality downgrade and a significant loss in revenue with little impacts on yields. Hence, chapters 4 and 5 investigate the conceptual feasibility of using weather-indexed insurance (WII) to hedge against non-catastrophic, but quality-impacting weather conditions to complement existing traditional insurance. Prospect theory is applied to analyze a farmer’s demand for WII. The theoretical model demonstrates that an increase in the volatility of total revenue and the revenue proportion from blueberries increases the possibility of farmers’ participation in WII. On the other hand, the increase in the value loss aversion coefficient and WII’s basis risk leads to less demand for WII. To design a WII product for blueberry growers to hedge against quality risk, a quality index must be constructed and the relationship between key weather conditions, such as cumulative maximum temperature and cumulative excess rainfall, and the quality index should be quantified. The results from a partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) show that the above goals are achievable. Further, rainfall and temperature can be modelled via a time-series model and statistical distributions, respectively, to provide reasonable estimates for calculating insurance premia. / Graduate / 2022-08-05

[ES] De acuerdo con las regulaciones europeas y muchos estudios científicos, es necesario monitorear y analizar las condiciones microclimáticas en museos o edificios, para preservar las obras de arte en ellos. Con el objetivo de ofrecer herramientas para el monitoreo de las condiciones climáticas en este tipo de edificios, en esta tesis doctoral se propone una nueva metodología estadística para clasificar series temporales de parámetros climáticos como la temperatura y humedad relativa. La metodología consiste en aplicar un método de clasificación usando variables que se computan a partir de las series de tiempos. Los dos primeros métodos de clasificación son versiones conocidas de métodos sparse PLS que no se habían aplicado a datos correlacionados en el tiempo. El tercer método es una nueva propuesta que usa dos algoritmos conocidos. Los métodos de clasificación se basan en diferentes versiones de un método sparse de análisis discriminante de mínimos cuadra- dos parciales PLS (sPLS-DA, SPLSDA y sPLS) y análisis discriminante lineal (LDA). Las variables que los métodos de clasificación usan como input, corresponden a parámetros estimados a partir de distintos modelos, métodos y funciones del área de las series de tiempo, por ejemplo, modelo ARIMA estacional, modelo ARIMA- TGARCH estacional, método estacional Holt-Winters, función de densidad espectral, función de autocorrelación (ACF), función de autocorrelación parcial (PACF), rango móvil (MR), entre otras funciones. También fueron utilizadas algunas variables que se utilizan en el campo de la astronomía para clasificar estrellas. En los casos que a priori no hubo información de los clusters de las series de tiempos, las dos primeras componentes de un análisis de componentes principales (PCA) fueron utilizadas por el algoritmo k- means para identificar posibles clusters de las series de tiempo. Adicionalmente, los resultados del método sPLS-DA fueron comparados con los del algoritmo random forest. Tres bases de datos de series de tiempos de humedad relativa o de temperatura fueron analizadas. Los clusters de las series de tiempos se analizaron de acuerdo a diferentes zonas o diferentes niveles de alturas donde fueron instalados sensores para el monitoreo de las condiciones climáticas en los 3 edificios.El algoritmo random forest y las diferentes versiones del método sparse PLS fueron útiles para identificar las variables más importantes en la clasificación de las series de tiempos. Los resultados de sPLS-DA y random forest fueron muy similares cuando se usaron como variables de entrada las calculadas a partir del método Holt-Winters o a partir de funciones aplicadas a las series de tiempo. Aunque los resultados del método random forest fueron levemente mejores que los encontrados por sPLS-DA en cuanto a las tasas de error de clasificación, los resultados de sPLS- DA fueron más fáciles de interpretar. Cuando las diferentes versiones del método sparse PLS utilizaron variables resultantes del método Holt-Winters, los clusters de las series de tiempo fueron mejor discriminados. Entre las diferentes versiones del método sparse PLS, la versión sPLS con LDA obtuvo la mejor discriminación de las series de tiempo, con un menor valor de la tasa de error de clasificación, y utilizando el menor o segundo menor número de variables.En esta tesis doctoral se propone usar una versión sparse de PLS (sPLS-DA, o sPLS con LDA) con variables calculadas a partir de series de tiempo para la clasificación de éstas. Al aplicar la metodología a las distintas bases de datos estudiadas, se encontraron modelos parsimoniosos, con pocas variables, y se obtuvo una discriminación satisfactoria de los diferentes clusters de las series de tiempo con fácil interpretación. La metodología propuesta puede ser útil para caracterizar las distintas zonas o alturas en museos o edificios históricos de acuerdo con sus condiciones climáticas, con el objetivo de prevenir problemas de conservación con las obras de arte. / [CA] D'acord amb les regulacions europees i molts estudis científics, és necessari monitorar i analitzar les condiciones microclimàtiques en museus i en edificis similars, per a preservar les obres d'art que s'exposen en ells. Amb l'objectiu d'oferir eines per al monitoratge de les condicions climàtiques en aquesta mena d'edificis, en aquesta tesi es proposa una nova metodologia estadística per a classificar series temporals de paràmetres climàtics com la temperatura i humitat relativa.La metodologia consisteix a aplicar un mètode de classificació usant variables que es computen a partir de les sèries de temps. Els dos primers mètodes de classificació són versions conegudes de mètodes sparse PLS que no s'havien aplicat adades correlacionades en el temps. El tercer mètode és una nova proposta que usados algorismes coneguts. Els mètodes de classificació es basen en diferents versions d'un mètode sparse d'anàlisi discriminant de mínims quadrats parcials PLS (sPLS-DA, SPLSDA i sPLS) i anàlisi discriminant lineal (LDA). Les variables queels mètodes de classificació usen com a input, corresponen a paràmetres estimats a partir de diferents models, mètodes i funcions de l'àrea de les sèries de temps, per exemple, model ARIMA estacional, model ARIMA-TGARCH estacional, mètode estacional Holt-Winters, funció de densitat espectral, funció d'autocorrelació (ACF), funció d'autocorrelació parcial (PACF), rang mòbil (MR), entre altres funcions. També van ser utilitzades algunes variables que s'utilitzen en el camp de l'astronomia per a classificar estreles. En els casos que a priori no va haver-hi información dels clústers de les sèries de temps, les dues primeres components d'una anàlisi de components principals (PCA) van ser utilitzades per l'algorisme k-means per a identificar possibles clústers de les sèries de temps. Addicionalment, els resultats del mètode sPLS-DA van ser comparats amb els de l'algorisme random forest.Tres bases de dades de sèries de temps d'humitat relativa o de temperatura varen ser analitzades. Els clústers de les sèries de temps es van analitzar d'acord a diferents zones o diferents nivells d'altures on van ser instal·lats sensors per al monitoratge de les condicions climàtiques en els edificis.L'algorisme random forest i les diferents versions del mètode sparse PLS van ser útils per a identificar les variables més importants en la classificació de les series de temps. Els resultats de sPLS-DA i random forest van ser molt similars quan es van usar com a variables d'entrada les calculades a partir del mètode Holt-winters o a partir de funcions aplicades a les sèries de temps. Encara que els resultats del mètode random forest van ser lleument millors que els trobats per sPLS-DA quant a les taxes d'error de classificació, els resultats de sPLS-DA van ser més fàcils d'interpretar.Quan les diferents versions del mètode sparse PLS van utilitzar variables resultants del mètode Holt-Winters, els clústers de les sèries de temps van ser més ben discriminats. Entre les diferents versions del mètode sparse PLS, la versió sPLS amb LDA va obtindre la millor discriminació de les sèries de temps, amb un menor valor de la taxa d'error de classificació, i utilitzant el menor o segon menor nombre de variables.En aquesta tesi proposem usar una versió sparse de PLS (sPLS-DA, o sPLS amb LDA) amb variables calculades a partir de sèries de temps per a classificar series de temps. En aplicar la metodologia a les diferents bases de dades estudiades, es van trobar models parsimoniosos, amb poques variables, i varem obtindre una discriminació satisfactòria dels diferents clústers de les sèries de temps amb fácil interpretació. La metodologia proposada pot ser útil per a caracteritzar les diferents zones o altures en museus o edificis similars d'acord amb les seues condicions climàtiques, amb l'objectiu de previndre problemes amb les obres d'art. / [EN] According to different European Standards and several studies, it is necessary to monitor and analyze the microclimatic conditions in museums and similar buildings, with the goal of preserving artworks. With the aim of offering tools to monitor the climatic conditions, a new statistical methodology for classifying time series of different climatic parameters, such as relative humidity and temperature, is pro- posed in this dissertation.The methodology consists of applying a classification method using variables that are computed from time series. The two first classification methods are ver- sions of known sparse methods which have not been applied to time dependent data. The third method is a new proposal that uses two known algorithms. These classification methods are based on different versions of sparse partial least squares discriminant analysis PLS (sPLS-DA, SPLSDA, and sPLS) and Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA). The variables that are computed from time series, correspond to parameter estimates from functions, methods, or models commonly found in the area of time series, e.g., seasonal ARIMA model, seasonal ARIMA-TGARCH model, seasonal Holt-Winters method, spectral density function, autocorrelation function (ACF), partial autocorrelation function (PACF), moving range (MR), among others functions. Also, some variables employed in the field of astronomy (for classifying stars) were proposed.The methodology proposed consists of two parts. Firstly, different variables are computed applying the methods, models or functions mentioned above, to time series. Next, once the variables are calculated, they are used as input for a classification method like sPLS-DA, SPLSDA, or SPLS with LDA (new proposal). When there was no information about the clusters of the different time series, the first two components from principal component analysis (PCA) were used as input for k-means method for identifying possible clusters of time series. In addition, results from random forest algorithm were compared with results from sPLS-DA.This study analyzed three sets of time series of relative humidity or temperate, recorded in different buildings (Valencia's Cathedral, the archaeological site of L'Almoina, and the baroque church of Saint Thomas and Saint Philip Neri) in Valencia, Spain. The clusters of the time series were analyzed according to different zones or different levels of the sensor heights, for monitoring the climatic conditions in these buildings.Random forest algorithm and different versions of sparse PLS helped identifying the main variables for classifying the time series. When comparing the results from sPLS-DA and random forest, they were very similar for variables from seasonal Holt-Winters method and functions which were applied to the time series. The results from sPLS-DA were easier to interpret than results from random forest. When the different versions of sparse PLS used variables from seasonal Holt- Winters method as input, the clusters of the time series were identified effectively.The variables from seasonal Holt-Winters helped to obtain the best, or the second best results, according to the classification error rate. Among the different versions of sparse PLS proposed, sPLS with LDA helped to classify time series using a fewer number of variables with the lowest classification error rate.We propose using a version of sparse PLS (sPLS-DA, or sPLS with LDA) with variables computed from time series for classifying time series. For the different data sets studied, the methodology helped to produce parsimonious models with few variables, it achieved satisfactory discrimination of the different clusters of the time series which are easily interpreted. This methodology can be useful for characterizing and monitoring micro-climatic conditions in museums, or similar buildings, for preventing problems with artwork. / I gratefully acknowledge the financial support of Pontificia Universidad Javeriana Cali – PUJ and Instituto Colombiano de Crédito Educativo y Estudios Técnicos en el Exterior – ICETEX who awarded me the scholarships ’Convenio de Capacitación para Docentes O. J. 086/17’ and ’Programa Crédito Pasaporte a la Ciencia ID 3595089 foco-reto salud’ respectively. The scholarships were essential for obtaining the Ph.D. Also, I gratefully acknowledge the financial support of the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 814624. / Ramírez Buelvas, SM. (2022). A Statistical Methodology for Classifying Time Series in the Context of Climatic Data [Tesis doctoral]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/181123 / TESIS

Mass spectrometry has been used extensively in recent years as a valuable tool in the study of proteomics. However, the data thus produced exhibits hyper-dimensionality. Reducing the dimensionality of the data often requires the imposition of many assumptions which can be harmful to subsequent analysis. The IP algorithm is a dimension reduction algorithm, similar in purpose to latent variable analysis. It is based on the principle of maximum entropy and therefore imposes a minimum number of assumptions on the data. Partial Least Squares (PLS) is an algorithm commonly used with proteomics data from mass spectrometry in order to reduce the dimension of the data. The IP algorithm and a PLS algorithm were applied to proteomics data from mass spectrometry to reduce the dimension of the data. The data came from three groups of patients, those with no tumors, malignant or benign tumors. Reduced data sets were produced from the IP algorithm and the PLS algorithm. Logistic regression models were constructed using predictor variables extracted from these data sets. The response was threefold and indicated which tumor classifications each patient belonged. Misclassification rates were determined for the IP algorithm and the PLS algorithm. The rates correct classification associated with the IP algorithm were equal or better than those rates associated with the PLS algorithm.

It is estimated that about 35-40% of adults in the U.S. suffer from insufficient sleep. Chronic sleep deprivation has become a prevalent phenomenon because of contemporary lifestyle and work-related factors. Sleep deprivation can reduce the capabilities and efficiency of attentional performance by impairing perception, increasing effort to maintain concentration, as well as introducing vision disturbance. Thus, it is important to understand the neural mechanisms behind how chronic sleep deprivation impairs sustained attention. In recent years, more attention has been paid to the study of the integration between anatomically distributed and functionally connected brain regions. Functional connectivity has been widely used to characterize brain functional integration, which measures the statistical dependency between neurophysiological events of the human brain. Further, evidence from recent studies has shown the non-stationary nature of brain functional connectivity, which may reveal more information about the human brain. Thus, the objective of this thesis is to investigate the effects of chronic sleep deprivation on sustained attention from the perspective of dynamic functional connectivity. A modified spatial cueing paradigm was used to assess human sustained attention in rested wakefulness and chronic sleep deprivation conditions. Partial least squares approach was applied to distinguish brain functional connectivity for the experimental conditions. With the integration of a sliding-window approach, dynamic patterns of brain functional connectivity were identified in two experimental conditions. The brain was modeled as a series of dynamic functional networks in each experimental condition. Graph theoretic analysis was performed to investigate the dynamic properties of brain functional networks, using network measures of clustering coefficient and characteristics path length. In the chronic sleep deprivation condition, a compensation mechanism between highly clustered organization and ineffective adaptability of brain functional networks was observed. Specifically, a highly clustered organization of brain functional networks was illustrated with a large clustering coefficient. This organization suggested that brain utilizes more connections to maintain attention in the chronic sleep deprivation condition. A smaller impact of clustering coefficient variation on characteristics path lengths indicated an ineffective adaptability of brain functional networks in the chronic sleep deprivation condition. In the rested wakefulness condition, brain functional networks showed the small-world topology in general, with the average small-world topology index larger than one. Small-world topology was identified as an optimal network structure with the balance between local information processing and global integration. Given the fluctuating values of the index over time, small-world brain networks were observed in most cases, indicating an effective adaptability of the human brain to maintain the dominance of small-world networks in the rested wakefulness condition. On the contrary, given that the average small-world topology index was smaller than one, brain functional networks generally exhibited random network structure. From the perspective of dynamic functional networks, even though there were few cases showing small-world brain networks, brain functional networks failed to maintain the dominance of small-world topology in the chronic sleep deprivation condition. In conclusion, to the best of our knowledge this thesis was the first to investigate the effects of chronic sleep deprivation on sustained attention from the perspective of dynamic brain functional connectivity. A compensation mechanism between highly clustered organization and ineffective adaptability of brain functional networks was observed in the chronic sleep deprivation condition. Furthermore, chronic sleep deprivation impaired sustained attention by reducing the effectiveness of brain functional networks' adaptability, resulting in the disrupted dominance of small-world brain networks.

evaluate disruption risks in the supply chain of petroleum production. This methodology is developed to formalise and facilitate the systematic integration and implementation of various models; such as analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and partial least squares structural equation model (PLS-SEM) and various statistical tests. The methodology is validated with the case of Nigeria’s oil industry. The study revealed the need to provide a responsive approach to managing the influence of geopolitical risk factors affecting supply chain in the petroleum production industry. However, the exploration and production risk, and geopolitical risk were identified as concomitant risk factors that impact performance in Nigeria’s oil industry. The research findings show that behavioural-based mechanisms successfully predict the ability of the petroleum industry to manage supply chain risks. The significant implication for this study is that the current theoretical debate on the supply chain risk management creates the understanding of agency theory as a governing mechanism for supply chain risk in the Nigerian oil industry. The systematic approach results provide an insight and objective information for decisions-making in resolving disruption risk to the petroleum supply chain in Nigeria. Furthermore, this study highlights to stakeholders on how to develop supply chain risk management strategies for mitigating and building resilience in the supply chain in the Nigerian oil industry. The developed systematic method is associated with supply chain risk management and performance measure. The approach facilitates an effective way for the stakeholders to plan according to their risk mitigation strategies. This will consistently help the stakeholders to evaluate supply chain risk and respond to disruptions in supply chain. This capability will allow for efficient management of supply chain and provide the organization with quicker response to customer needs, continuity of supply, lower costs of operations and improve return on investment in the Nigeria oil industry. Therefore, the methodology applied provide a new way for implementing good practice for managing disruption risk in supply chain. Further, the systematic approach provides a simplistic modelling process for disruption risk evaluation for researchers and oil industry professionals. This approach would develop a holistic procedure for monitoring and controlling disruption risk in supply chains practices in Nigeria.

No description available.

No description available.

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(情報学) / 甲第24041号 / 情博第797号 / 新制||情||135(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院情報学研究科システム科学専攻 / (主査)教授 加納 学, 教授 下平 英寿, 教授 石井 信 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Informatics / Kyoto University / DFAM