La tesi si snoda lungo tre piani di analisi per esaminare i rapporti fra Unione europea e welfare state. Innanzitutto, essa guarda alla CEE come organizzazione sorta principalmente per perseguire l’integrazione economica degli Stati membri senza interferire sulla loro funzione di welfare. Nel ripercorrere l’evoluzione delle competenze sociali dell’Unione europea, la tesi suggerisce come i sussistenti limiti procedurali e sostanziali evidenzino quella logica. In secondo luogo, la tesi ricorre alla categoria di costituzione economica europea al fine di spiegare la limitazione di sovranità cui gli Stati membri sono andati incontro per favorire l’attuazione del principio di libertà economica. Su questa base, vengono enucleati taluni effetti prodotti dalla costituzione economica europea sul welfare state. Un’attenzione particolare è dedicata ai riflessi della costituzione economica in materia pensionistica. Infine, la tesi guarda alle innovazioni apportate dalla Strategia di Lisbona e dal Trattato di Lisbona, con particolare riguardo al rafforzamento del metodo aperto di coordinamento ed all’entrata in vigore della Carta dei diritti fondamentali. In questa luce, si coglie la tendenza all’edificazione di un modello sociale europeo. Avendone discusso genesi e sviluppo, vengono illustrati i suoi tratti distintivi ed i suoi riflessi sulle politiche nazionali di sicurezza sociale e del lavoro. / The thesis examines the relationship between European Union and Welfare State under three different perspectives. Firstly, it looks at the EEC as an organization pursuing economic integration of Member States while not interfering with their welfare function. In tracing the evolution of the social competences of the European Union, it is highlighted how the original logic still underlies the existence of procedural and substantive limits to those competences. Second, the thesis draws on the category of European economic constitution to explain how Member States bounded their sovereignty in order to give full effect to economic freedom. On that basis, the thesis describes some of the inroads made by the European economic constitution into national welfare states, with special attention to its effects on pension systems. Finally, the thesis looks at some of the innovations introduced by the Lisbon Strategy and the Lisbon Treaty, focusing on the strengthening of the Open Method of Co-ordination and the entry into force of the Charter of Fundamental Rights. In this perspective, the thesis captures the emergence of a European social model. Having discussed origins and development of the European social model, its main distinctive features and reflexes on domestic social policies are spelled out.

The main objective of the thesis was to investigate the feasibility of accurately and precisely fore- casting the number of both national and provincial bene ciaries of social security grants in South Africa, using simple autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. The series of the monthly number of bene ciaries of the old age, child support, foster care and disability grants from April 2004 to March 2010 were used to achieve the objectives of the thesis. The conclusions from analysing the series were that: (1) ARIMA models for forecasting are province and grant-type spe- ci c; (2) for some grants, national forecasts obtained by aggregating provincial ARIMA forecasts are more accurate and precise than those obtained by ARIMA modelling national series; and (3) for some grants, forecasts obtained by modelling the latest half of the series were more accurate and precise than those obtained from modelling the full series. / Mathematical Sciences / M.Sc. (Statistics)

The theme of my diploma thesis is a comparison of the Czech pension system with pension systems of chosen European Union countries. I focus also on planned changes and a further development in the Czech pension system and in chosen states. For the comparison I chose four states ? the Slovak Republic, Poland, Germany and the Great Britain. I chose the Slovak Republic, Poland and Germany because these are states with the pension systems similar to the Czech Republic. On the contrary I selected the Great Britain because its system is very different. The aim of this thesis was to compare pension systems in chosen European Union countries: the Czech Republic, the Slovak Republic, Poland, Germany and the Great Britain and to map their further development. The thesis was processed theoretically and it is focused only on the pension that secures a man in the retirement age. The introduction outlines a demographic development, which is one of the factors why there are changes in individual systems. Furthermore, in this thesis there are characterized pension systems of the chosen states. There are mentioned conditions for a participation in the pension schemes, types of retirement pensions and conditions for an entitlement to a pension payment. To outline the development of individual systems, I tried, in the second part of the thesis, to briefly describe pension reforms and current changes that occurred. In all countries a necessary condition for an entitlement to pension payments is to pay a social security insurance that is why I compared amounts of the insurances in individual states, which I further took into account in a discussion. I always compared the Czech Republic with the other states in the discussion. I focused on the comparison of the retirement age, years of the insurance required for the entitlement for the retirement pension, current changes and especially an opt-out system in the Czech Republic which is planned for the next year. I tried to compare the conditions that were during the implementation of this system established in other states and which are planned in this country. I believe that the thesis can be used by a professional and lay public for a better orientation in the legislation of pension systems of the chosen states.