Cette thèse propose des évaluations de réformes récentes du système de retraites français, en utilisant deux approches distinctes et complémentaires : l’évaluation ex post par microéconométrie et l’évaluation ex ante par microsimulation.La première partie de la thèse rassemble des travaux d’évaluation menés sur les données administratives de la Caisse nationaled’assurance vieillesse. Un chapitre introductif propose une revue des littératures des travaux évaluant l’effet du système de retraite sur les comportements d’activité. Ensuite, nous utilisons les réformes du dispositif de mise à la retraite d’office dans les années 2000, pour identifier un effet de la demande de travail sur les comportements de retrait dumarché du travail. Nous évaluons ensuite l’effet du relèvement de l’âge minimal de départ à la retraite instauré par la réforme de2003. Nous étudions les effets de la réforme sur l’emploi après 60 ans, mais également les effets de substitution potentiels vers d’autres dispositifs publics, en particulier l’assurance chômage.La deuxième partie de cette thèse, consacrée à l’évaluation par microsimulation, s’ouvre sur une présentation de l’approche appliquée à la retraite et de son usage dans les modèles français. Nous proposons d’abord une évaluation de l’augmentation de la durée d’assurance prévue par la réforme de 2003.Le principe de maintien constant du rapport entre durée en carrière et durée en retraite est interrogé, puis confronté aux évolutions projetées en simulation à l’aide du modèleDestinie de l’Insee. Enfin, nous utilisons le modèle Pensipp de l’Institut des politiques publiques pour simuler des options de réformes inédites permettant de réduire la dépendance à la croissance du système de retraite et l’incertitude sur l’équilibre financierqu’elle induit. / This thesis brings together different evaluations of recent reforms of the French pension system using two complementaryapproaches: ex post evaluation using microeconometrics techniques and ex ante evaluation built on microsimulationmodelling.The first part of the thesis is based on microestimations using administrative data of the French Social Security agency (Cnav). We first use changes in the rules of mandatory retirement to identify an effect of labordemand on retirement behavior. In a second contribution we estimate the effect of the increase in the early retirement age implemented by the 2010 reform. Besides its effect over employment, we study thepotential substitution effects of the reform towards alternative schemes like unemployment insurance.The second part of the thesis focuses on evaluation by microsimulation. A first study evaluates the effect of the increase in therequired insurance duration implemented by the 2003 reform. The principle of the reform - preserving a constant ratio between work and retirement duration - is discussed on theoretical grounds, and then confronted with the long-term evolutions projected by the Insee Destinie model. Finally, we use the Pensipp model of the Institute of public policies to simulate the effect of originalreforms reducing the growth dependence of the pension system and the uncertainty over financial balance it generates.

Esta tesis constituye un estudio empírico de la privatización de la seguridad social en Perú, con énfasis sobre consumo, ahorro y bienestar. El primer capítulo describe la reforma y la posiciona como un valioso caso de estudio. El segundo evalúa el efecto de la privatización sobre el bienestar de los ancianos y sus dependientes inmediatamente después de la reforma, cuando la seguridad social migraba de un estado estacionario a otro. Se encuentra un efecto positivo, aunque el impacto mayor no fue experimentado ni por los hogares más pobres ni por los hogares de mayor edad. El tercero, en lugar de evaluar la reforma, utiliza la variabilidad provista por ésta para responder una antigua pregunta económica: hasta qué punto el ahorro de pensiones compensa el ahorro voluntario. Se encuentra que, por cada dólar de seguro provisto por el sistema de pensiones, el ahorro voluntario decrece entre 70 centavos y un dólar. / This thesis is an empirical study of the privatization of social security in Peru, with a particular emphasis on consumption, saving and welfare. The first chapter provides a general description of the reform and positions it as a valuable study case. The second chapter evaluates the effect of the privatization on the well-being of the elderly and their dependents immediately after the reform, when social security was moving from a steady state to the other. It concludes that the effect was positive, although the larger impact was experienced neither by the poorest households nor by the oldest households. The third chapter, instead of evaluating the reform, uses the variability provided by the reform to analyze an old economic question: to what extent pension saving crowds out voluntary saving. It finds that for every dollar of insurance provided by the pension system, voluntary savings decrease by 70 cents to one dollar.

The object of my diploma is focused in the pension system of The Czech Republic and the perspective of it in the future. At present there is still no problem in the financial balance of the pay-as-you-go pillar but due to the ageing of population the Czech dominant pillar will certain face to serious problems in case of no modifications. This conclusion arises from the first part of the analysis which also consists of the possible parameter modifications that could keep the system in balanced in long term. The next part is the analysis of the savings in the pension funds as the main alternative to the PAYGs. Each approach has its advantages and disadvantages which are main objects of both analyses in this diploma. Beside of the ability to keep the system stabled in financial terms I examine also the equivalence of contributions to the level of pensions that is important for the motivation of people to be responsible for their financial security in their old-age. The last part deals with the experiences of the pension systems in Chile, Slovak Republic and Sweden from where we could gain the real results of the reformed systems in different way in each country. From the results of these analyses I also give some possible recommendations for the elementary modifications in Czech system in the final part.

My thesis describes social policy of EU and compares social models of three countries - Germany, Denmark and Great Britain. I divided my work into five parts. In the first one I concentrate on history, tools and function of social policy. In other four parts I pay attention to employment policy, educational policy, pension systems and to poverty and social exclusion. In all these parts of social policy I compare activities of those three countries mentioned above.

This thesis focuses on the issue of European pension systems from a standpoint of their structure and sustainability in view of ageing of the population. The structure of systems is examined through pension models which embody combinations of financing (pay-as-you-go or capital funded) and pension calculation (defined contribution or defined benefit). The main object is to reveal how much are the European pension systems threatened by ageing of the population and sort them out according to this discovery. The risk rate is calculated as a ratio of the difference between expense rate on public pension pillars in 2012 and 2060 to the difference between dependency ratio in the same interval. The final figure shows the percentage of relative expenses per capita in 2060 compared to the base year of 2012. The main object is carried out by dividing the studied states into three groups. According to thesis' results, the most endangered state is Poland with a value of 28 % while the least endangered state is Luxembourg with a value of 110 % or relative expenses per capita compared to the base year of 2012.

The main aim of the thesis is to give comprehensive overview on the issue of pension reform in order to clarify, with political-economic and socio-economic context, the position and role of the private sector in pension system of Czech Republic and evaluate whether it is sufficient form of security for old age. The thesis analyzed trends, with specific meaning and influence of the social situation in the EU. There was made the description of pension system of Chile, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Lithuania, USA, France and Germany. The thesis also analyzed the pre-reform and after-reform pension system in Czech Republic. The last chapter was dedicated to a case study focusing on the simulation with respect of different age and income of various persons. The conclusion showed partial opt-out preference for younger people with long term savings, or older people with income at least above 40.000,-CZK. It also proved benefits of additional savings, especially with state aid, tax relief and employer contribution. The thesis proved the fact that private sector is able to provide the security for old age people only with sufficiently high income, sufficiently long period of savings and also only with personal responsibility of every person alone. In all other cases the savings in private sector must be comprehend as an additional saving and not as an adequate substitute for state pension.

El Sistema de Pensiones Privado (SPP) del Perú es operado por cuatro Administradoras de Fondos de Pensiones (AFP): Habitat, Prima, Integra y Profuturo, quienes administran los aportes mensuales de los trabajadores afiliados. El presente trabajo de investigación tuvo como objetivo determinar la eficiencia técnica de cada una de las Administradoras de Fondos de Pensiones del Perú, 2015 – 2021, para así establecer si la asignación de sus recursos se mantiene eficiente a pesar de los cambios dados en los últimos años al SPP. La metodología utilizada para el desarrollo de la investigación fue de tipo aplicada con nivel explicativo con análisis estadísticos descriptivos. El nivel de eficiencia fue obtenido a través del modelo de Análisis Envolvente de Datos (DEA), el cuál mide la eficiencia de las empresas por medio de su capacidad individual para maximizar sus recursos con un cierto nivel de entrada. Para ello, se seleccionaron como variables de entrada a los gastos de personal y a la inversión en activos fijos y como variable de salida a los ingresos operacionales, con data obtenida en la Superintendencia de Banca, Seguros y AFP (SBS). Se obtuvo como resultado que las cuatro administradoras de fondos existentes son eficientes técnicamente puesto que se encuentran en el rango establecido para considerarse eficientes técnicamente [0.5-1], resaltando la fluctuación obtenida para la AFP Integra dentro de dicho rango para los años de estudio. Con ello, se concluye que las AFP en el Perú emplean adecuadamente sus recursos siendo eficientes técnicamente durante los años de estudio. / The Private Pension System (SPP) of Peru is operated by four Pension Fund Administrators (AFP): Habitat, Prima, Integra and Profuturo, who manage the monthly contributions of affiliated workers. The objective of this research work was to determine the technical efficiency of each of the Pension Fund Administrators of Peru, 2015 - 2021, in order to establish if the allocation of their resources remains efficient despite the changes in recent years. years to SPP. The methodology used for the development of the research was applied with an explanatory level with descriptive statistical analysis. The level of efficiency was obtained through the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model, which measures the efficiency of companies through their individual capacity to maximize their resources with a certain input level. For this, personnel expenses and investment in fixed assets were selected as input variables and operating income as output variable, with data obtained from the Superintendency of Banking, Insurance and AFP (SBS). It was obtained as a result that the four existing fund managers are technically efficient since they are in the range established to be considered technically efficient [0.5-1], highlighting the fluctuation obtained for AFP Integra within said range for the years of study. With this, it is concluded that the AFPs in Peru adequately use their resources, being technically efficient during the years of study.

My master thesis explores classical liberal attitudes towards the Welfare State. It deals especially with concepts developed by the so-called new classical liberals (also called neoclassical liberals) represented by scholars of the Arizona School. I use their ideas to reconstruct free-market liberal theory of social justice, which is then applied to pension reforms in Chile and Sweden. The thesis also recollects critiques of public pension systems by public choice theory scholars, which are then used to explore a nature of the aforementioned pension reforms. In cases of both reforms, these theoretical frameworks are used to evaluate data obtained by a desk research. Relevant documents and also data of international organizations and national statistical offices were used. In its last part, the thesis evaluates primary data obtained by semi-standardized interviews with seven Czech classical liberals and explores their attitudes towards both the free market liberal theory of social justice and pension reforms in Chile and in Sweden. Abstrakt Diplomová práce zkoumá vztah klasického liberalismu k sociálnímu státu. Zabývá se zejména koncepty vyvinutými takzvanými novými klasickými liberály reprezentovanými především badateli arizonské školy. Jejich ideje využívám k rekonstrukci tržně liberální teorie...

ВКР (магистерская диссертация) состоит из введения, три глав, заключения, библиографического списка, включающего 79 наименования. Работа включает 4 таблицы и 27 рисунков. Общий объем ВКР (магистерской диссертации) – 112 страницы. Цель исследования – исследование правовой природы, проблем и преимуществ пенсионной системы в Китайской Народной Республике. Научная новизна исследования состоит в исследовании пенсионного обеспечения по старости после проведения пенсионной реформы в Китайской Народной Республике. Практическая значимость исследования заключается в возможности применения преимуществ китайской пенсионной системы в практике других стран, включая Российскую Федерацию. / The thesis consists of an introduction, three chapters, a conclusion and a bibliography with 79 titles. The work includes 4 tables and 27 figures. The total volume of Master's thesis is 114 pages. The purpose of the study is to investigate the legal nature, problems and advantages of the pension system in the People's Republic of China. The scientific novelty of the study consists of the study of old age pension provision after the pension reform in the People's Republic of China. The practical significance of the study lies in the possibility of applying the advantages of the Chinese pension system in the practice of other countries, including the Russian Federation.

The main objective of the thesis was to investigate the feasibility of accurately and precisely fore- casting the number of both national and provincial bene ciaries of social security grants in South Africa, using simple autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. The series of the monthly number of bene ciaries of the old age, child support, foster care and disability grants from April 2004 to March 2010 were used to achieve the objectives of the thesis. The conclusions from analysing the series were that: (1) ARIMA models for forecasting are province and grant-type spe- ci c; (2) for some grants, national forecasts obtained by aggregating provincial ARIMA forecasts are more accurate and precise than those obtained by ARIMA modelling national series; and (3) for some grants, forecasts obtained by modelling the latest half of the series were more accurate and precise than those obtained from modelling the full series. / Mathematical Sciences / M.Sc. (Statistics)