Charles University in Prague Faculty of Social Sciences Institute of Economic Studies Master's thesis Trade and Politics: Political Determinants of International Trade Flows Author: Bc. Jan Sosnovec Supervisor: Ing. Vilém Semerák, M.A., Ph.D. January 3, 2018 Abstract This thesis takes a comprehensive look at the relationship between international trade and politics. The first part of this thesis is theoretical. Besides providing a useful overview of this highly complex subject, it makes a contribution to the contemporary theory by proposing two simple models. The first of these models explains how because of complementarity of institutions, countries end up stuck with inefficient institutions and consequently high trade costs; countries can break out of this inefficient equilibrium only by coordinating their actions. The second proposed model shows how governments set trade barriers in order to pursue their political aims, while at the same time staying popular in order to remain in power. This model is consistent with a wide variety of regime types and ideologies, and takes into account voter heterogeneity. The second part of this thesis is empirical. It uses the gravity model of trade, with multilateral resistance terms represented either by fixed effects or by the Baier-Bergstrand linear approximation of...

O alinhamento de voto no sistema internacional tem sido objeto de estudo desde o estabelecimento de Organizações Internacionais, principalmente após a Segunda Guerra Mundial. Parte da literatura trata da formação de grupos de votação em troca da alocação de ajuda externa por países desenvolvidos, que se verifica como uma estratégia de política externa a qual perdura a relação desigual de dependência econômica e barganha de voto no sistema internacional. Assim, a fundação da ONU e de outras Organizações que a sucederam destacou a crescente relevância em estudar os determinantes do comportamento dos Estados em votações multilaterais, tendo em vista seus posicionamentos de política externa. Já a cooperação brasileira se diferencia do formato tradicional de ajuda externa e enfoca na relação de parceria e redução de discrepâncias entre países em desenvolvimento. Buscou-se analisar a relação entre a ajuda externa brasileira, no formato de cooperação técnica bilateral, e o comportamento de voto de seus receptores na Assembleia Geral da ONU (AGNU), sendo que a alocação seria um meio para influenciar o comportamento de voto a favor de seus interesses de política externa no sistema internacional. Entretanto, os dados observados não apontam claramente para a barganha de votos nesse escopo, de forma que as análises sobre alocação da cooperação técnica brasileira, fluxo de comércio e investimentos levaram à escolha de Angola para o desenvolvimento de um estudo de caso. Logo, este estudo se aprofunda no alinhamento político entre Brasil e Angola, em cooperação técnica, fluxos bilaterais de comércio e investimentos e discursos diplomáticos. Verificou-se que o Brasil utiliza, em Angola, o modelo de cooperação pela transferência de conhecimentos, enquanto busca fortalecer as relações bilaterais, ampliar o prestígio brasileiro e alinhar votos na AGNU, de acordo com o interesse em se tornar uma liderança no cone Sul e em promover a reforma da AGNU e do Conselho de Segurança. Além disso, as entrevistas realizadas mostraram que as relações comerciais e de investimento de multinacionais brasileiras em Angola também contribuíram para a aproximação política entre os países, envolvendo o âmbito público e privado. Conclui-se que o alinhamento entre Brasil e Angola na AGNU não é um comportamento constante, de forma que não se verifica uma coalizão de voto. Por fim, esse alinhamento decorre dos interesses de países em desenvolvimento, quanto a representação do Brasil na esfera de membros permanentes do Conselho de Segurança. / Voting alingment in the international system has been a study object since the formation of International Organizations, mainly after the II World War. Part of the literature on this matter leans on voting groups formation in exchange for foreign aid allocation from developed countries, which is verified as a foreign policy strategy that endures the unequal relation of economic dependence and vote buying in the international system. Thus, UN foundation, among other organizations which succedded it, highlights the growing relevance of compreheding the determinants of State behaviour in multilateral votings, considering their foreign policy interests. Brazilian Cooperation, on the other hand, differs from traditional foreign aid format and focuses on the partnership relation and reduction of discrepancies among developing countries. We sought to analyze the correlation between Brazilian foreign aid, as Bilateral Technical Cooperation, and voting behaviour of its recepients in the UN General Assembly. Thus, the allocation would be used as a tool to influence voting behaviour towards Brazilian Foreign Policy objectives in the international system. However, the data observed do not clearly point out vote buying in this domain, so that further analysis about Brazilian technical cooperation, trade and investment flows led to the choice of Angola for a case-study. This study is about the political alignment between Brazil and Angola, related to technical cooperation, bilateral trade, investment flows and diplomatic discourses. It showed that Brazilian Foreign Aid model in Angola focuses on expertise transfer, while it aims to strengthen bilateral relations, increase Brazilian prestige and promote vote alignments in UNGA. Thus, Brazilian motivation is according with the interest in becoming a leader in the South cone and supporting the political reform in the General Assembly and the Security Council. Besides, the interviews showed that comercial relations and investments of Brazilian multinationals in Angola also contribute to the political approximation among both countries, involving the public and private sphere. It\'s possible to conclude that the voting alignment between Brazil and Angola in the General Assembly is not a constant behavior, since no vote coalition was identified. Therefore, this alingment is due to developing countries interests, in regards to Brazil\'s representation among the permanent members of the Security Council.

O alinhamento de voto no sistema internacional tem sido objeto de estudo desde o estabelecimento de Organizações Internacionais, principalmente após a Segunda Guerra Mundial. Parte da literatura trata da formação de grupos de votação em troca da alocação de ajuda externa por países desenvolvidos, que se verifica como uma estratégia de política externa a qual perdura a relação desigual de dependência econômica e barganha de voto no sistema internacional. Assim, a fundação da ONU e de outras Organizações que a sucederam destacou a crescente relevância em estudar os determinantes do comportamento dos Estados em votações multilaterais, tendo em vista seus posicionamentos de política externa. Já a cooperação brasileira se diferencia do formato tradicional de ajuda externa e enfoca na relação de parceria e redução de discrepâncias entre países em desenvolvimento. Buscou-se analisar a relação entre a ajuda externa brasileira, no formato de cooperação técnica bilateral, e o comportamento de voto de seus receptores na Assembleia Geral da ONU (AGNU), sendo que a alocação seria um meio para influenciar o comportamento de voto a favor de seus interesses de política externa no sistema internacional. Entretanto, os dados observados não apontam claramente para a barganha de votos nesse escopo, de forma que as análises sobre alocação da cooperação técnica brasileira, fluxo de comércio e investimentos levaram à escolha de Angola para o desenvolvimento de um estudo de caso. Logo, este estudo se aprofunda no alinhamento político entre Brasil e Angola, em cooperação técnica, fluxos bilaterais de comércio e investimentos e discursos diplomáticos. Verificou-se que o Brasil utiliza, em Angola, o modelo de cooperação pela transferência de conhecimentos, enquanto busca fortalecer as relações bilaterais, ampliar o prestígio brasileiro e alinhar votos na AGNU, de acordo com o interesse em se tornar uma liderança no cone Sul e em promover a reforma da AGNU e do Conselho de Segurança. Além disso, as entrevistas realizadas mostraram que as relações comerciais e de investimento de multinacionais brasileiras em Angola também contribuíram para a aproximação política entre os países, envolvendo o âmbito público e privado. Conclui-se que o alinhamento entre Brasil e Angola na AGNU não é um comportamento constante, de forma que não se verifica uma coalizão de voto. Por fim, esse alinhamento decorre dos interesses de países em desenvolvimento, quanto a representação do Brasil na esfera de membros permanentes do Conselho de Segurança. / Voting alingment in the international system has been a study object since the formation of International Organizations, mainly after the II World War. Part of the literature on this matter leans on voting groups formation in exchange for foreign aid allocation from developed countries, which is verified as a foreign policy strategy that endures the unequal relation of economic dependence and vote buying in the international system. Thus, UN foundation, among other organizations which succedded it, highlights the growing relevance of compreheding the determinants of State behaviour in multilateral votings, considering their foreign policy interests. Brazilian Cooperation, on the other hand, differs from traditional foreign aid format and focuses on the partnership relation and reduction of discrepancies among developing countries. We sought to analyze the correlation between Brazilian foreign aid, as Bilateral Technical Cooperation, and voting behaviour of its recepients in the UN General Assembly. Thus, the allocation would be used as a tool to influence voting behaviour towards Brazilian Foreign Policy objectives in the international system. However, the data observed do not clearly point out vote buying in this domain, so that further analysis about Brazilian technical cooperation, trade and investment flows led to the choice of Angola for a case-study. This study is about the political alignment between Brazil and Angola, related to technical cooperation, bilateral trade, investment flows and diplomatic discourses. It showed that Brazilian Foreign Aid model in Angola focuses on expertise transfer, while it aims to strengthen bilateral relations, increase Brazilian prestige and promote vote alignments in UNGA. Thus, Brazilian motivation is according with the interest in becoming a leader in the South cone and supporting the political reform in the General Assembly and the Security Council. Besides, the interviews showed that comercial relations and investments of Brazilian multinationals in Angola also contribute to the political approximation among both countries, involving the public and private sphere. It\'s possible to conclude that the voting alignment between Brazil and Angola in the General Assembly is not a constant behavior, since no vote coalition was identified. Therefore, this alingment is due to developing countries interests, in regards to Brazil\'s representation among the permanent members of the Security Council.

Plusieurs problèmes d’environnement se posent aujourd’hui à l’humanité : pollutions diverses, réchauffement climatique, désertification, inondations, accumulation de déchets, pénurie d’eau, extinction progressive des espèces animales et végétales etc. Pour traiter ces problèmes, diverses activités et initiatives sont menées, aux plans local, national, sous-régional, régional et international. Parmi celles-ci figure la négociation des conventions internationales dans le domaine de l’environnement. La présente étude procède en deux temps : en premier lieu, elle analyse les justifications de la négociation telle qu’elle repose sur des déterminants non juridiques et juridiques. En second lieu, elle procède à l’évaluation de l’issue des négociations telle que celles-ci se jouent entre conflits d’intérêt et recherche de consensus. La thèse identifie les éléments, les facteurs et les principaux acteurs qui influent sur les décisions et les positions adoptées dans le cadre des négociations internationales. Ainsi, les négociations des traités environnementaux sont-elles à la fois l’expression d’une pratique classique en matière d’adoption des engagements internationaux et d’un contexte particulier propre à la thématique environnementale, au carrefour précisément du juridique, de l’économique, du politique et du social. A cet égard, on peut observer qu’il y est recherché plus le consensus plus que la confrontation, des principes généraux plus que des obligations plus strictes.Le bilan est que la négociation des traités environnementaux reste une oeuvre non seulement utile mais nécessaire car elle vise à répondre aux problèmes évoqués ci-dessus, au fur et à mesure où ils se posent, par la recherche de cadres juridiques contraignants appropriés. / Humankind is facing many environmental problems nowadays: diverse forms of pollution, climate warming, desertification, floods, waste accumulation, water scarcity, progressive extinction of animal and plant species etc. To deal with these problems, diverse activities and initiatives are carried out, at local, national, sub-regional, regional and international levels. Among these, is the negotiation of international conventions in the area of environment. The current thesis sets about two folds: firstly, it analyses the justifications of the negotiation as it lays on non-legal and legal determinants. Secondly, it assesses the negotiations issue as these are played between conflicts of interest and seeking of consensus. The thesis identifies elements, factors and key stakeholders that have effect on decisions and positions taken in the sphere of international negotiations. Thus, the negotiations of environmental treaties are both the expression of a classical practice for adopting international commitments and of a particular context for environmental thematic, at the crossroads, precisely of law, economy, politics and social. Then, it can be said that consensus more than confrontation, general principles more than strict obligations, are sought. The assessment to be made is that the negotiation of environmental treaties remains an activity which is not only useful but also necessary as it seeks to respond to the problems considered above, as they occur, looking for appropriate and strict legal frameworks.