This paper analyzes the impact of political expectations on the returns of Peru’s stock market using information pertaining to the the electoral periods of 1995 and 2000. The main variable is a measure of the probability that a candidate will win the elections. Therefore, the hypothesis to be proven is whether the uncertainty of the election results affects Peru’s stock market returns. We use other alternative variables such as the exchange rate, inflation, and terms of trade. The results show that for the first period of the analysis (1995), the probability that the candidate Fujimori would win the elections positively affected stock market returns. On the other hand, for the period of 2000, the above-mentioned variable changed, implying a loss of electoral appeal on thepart of the candidate Fujimori. Furthermore, the evidence of corruption uncovered at the time contributed to an explanation of the result’s importance. The results also show the importance ofother macroeconomic variables in the estimations. / El presente documento analiza el impacto de las expectativas políticas (medida como la probabilidad de que un candidato gane las elecciones) sobre los retornos del índice general de la Bolsa de Valores de Lima (IGBVL) utilizando información para los períodos electorales de 1995 y 2000. La hipótesis a verificar es si el grado de incertidumbre sobre el resultado de las elecciones presidenciales afecta los retornos del IGBVL. Se usan otras variables explicativas como el tipo de cambio, la inflación, y los términos de intercambio. Los resultados muestran que para el primer período de análisis (1995) la probabilidad de que el candidato Fujimori gane las elecciones tuvo un signo positivo sobre el rendimiento del IGBVL mientras que para el período 2000, el signo de dicha variable cambia, siendo en ambos casos estadísticamente significativos.

The central issue in this study is political socialisation and its implications within a rural setting in South Africa with a particular focus on Calais village in Limpopo Province. The aim of the study is to determine how adult residents of Calais village, are politically socialised; and furthermore to assess the impact of the socialisation process on the residents’ political behaviour within a democratic South Africa. In order to achieve the research purpose, face-to-face interviews were conducted with forty (40) adult residents in Calais village. The study revealed that the respondents were politically socialised by the media, immediate family, peers, extended family, political parties, local municipality, school, traditional leadership, ward committee and religious institutions. The media were the most important agent, while the religious institutions were the least. Furthermore, NGOs and trade unions were not socialisation agents in Calais village. The socialisation process had an impact on the respondents’ political behaviour in terms of political interest, party identification, political beliefs, efficacy, knowledge, awareness and participation. / Political Sciences / M.A. (Politics)