A research report submitted to the Faculty of Arts, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, in partial fulfilment for the degree of M. A. (Clinical Psychology). / The Impact of political violence on the psychological well-being of civilian populations has received much attention. both locally and internationally. In South Africa, the effects on black children of having witnessed or experienced violence has been extensively researched; however. the impact on white children, albeit that the majority of them are removed from the immediacy of the violence, has not been investigated.(Abbreviation abstract) / Andrew Chakane 2018

Thesis (MComm)--Stellenbosch University, 2012. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Almost all enterprises, individuals and organisations face some form of political risk on a continuous basis. In the past, mines have been lost, terrorist attacks have been devastating, and financial markets have experienced large losses due to political risk factors. We live in an ever-increasing politically insecure world where political risk factors and the analysis thereof receive increasing attention from both international and domestic establishments. From a business perspective, making the correct business decisions and determining the appropriate risk management strategy consequently are crucial to the success of an enterprise, due to the ever-present nature of political risk factors in the business environment. Especially in the emerging market economies of the world, political risk is an important phenomenon. In such emerging market economies, political risk factors could play a role that is as important as the economic factors that are decisive in the performance of markets. It is well known that the emerging market economies of the world have been the main recipients of foreign direct investments. A closer study of these economies has indicated that the majority of such investments have gone to the so-called BRICS countries (the Federative Republic of Brazil, the Russian Federation, the Republic of India, the People‟s Republic of China, and the Republic of South Africa). After having studied the political and economic environments of the BRICS countries, it was concluded that ten political risk factors are common to these countries, namely nationalisation, confiscation, creeping expropriation, currency inconvertibility, breach of contract, non-honouring of government guarantees, war, violent civil unrest, non-violent civil unrest and terrorism. These political risk factors were investigated in a South African context by means of an empirical survey. A census was undertaken that consisted of structured personal interviews (based on a questionnaire) that were pre-arranged with most of the agents who sell Sasria insurance on behalf of Sasria Ltd. These agents mainly were conventional short-term insurers who handled claims on behalf of Sasria Ltd., which placed them in an excellent position to provide the study with valuable information. Violent civil unrest and non-violent civil unrest have not only been the political risk factors that had the most important impact on the total annual claims amount of the respondents over the past five years, but have also been the political risk factors that most frequently resulted in claims. It therefore did not come as a surprise that these were the two political risk factors for which there had been the highest level of demand for cover over the past five years. In terms of the importance of impact, the frequency of claims and the demand for cover, violent civil unrest and non-violent civil unrest are expected to remain the two most important political risk factors in South Africa over the next five years. When compared to the past five years, all the political risk factors (excluding breach of contract) are expected to have an increased impact in South Africa over the next five years. They are also expected to present an equal number or more claims in general. While excluding war and terrorism, the expectation is that the demand for cover against them will generally remain at the same level, but may increase. The South African short-term insurance industry generally faces considerable challenges regarding the cover provided against political risk factors to the public and businesses in South Africa. The industry and the South African public therefore need to be aware of the impact that various political risk factors have on the cover that is provided. This research study should assist the executives of short-term insurance in making better risk management decisions and exercising better control over their responsibilities regarding specific political risk factors in South Africa. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Feitlik alle ondernemings, individue en organisasies kom voortdurend voor een of ander politieke risiko te staan. In die verlede was daar verlies van myne, terroriste-aanvalle het verwoesting gesaai en finansiële markte het groot skade gely vanweë politieke risikofaktore. Ons bevind onsself in 'n wêreld van toenemende politieke onsekerheid waarin internasionale sowel as binnelandse instellings meer en meer aandag aan politieke risikofaktore en die ontleding daarvan wy. Vanuit 'n sakeperspektief word korrekte besigheidsbesluitneming en die vasstelling van toepaslike risikobestuurstrategië vanweë die voortdurende teenwoordigheid van politieke risikofaktore binne die sake-omgewing gevolglik van uiterste belang vir die sukses van 'n onderneming. Politieke risiko is veral in die ontluikende mark-ekonomieë van die wêreld 'n belangrike verskynsel. In hierdie ontluikende mark-ekonomieë kan politieke risikofaktore 'n rol speel wat net so belangrik is as die ekonomiese faktore wat deurslaggewend is ten opsigte van hoe markte presteer. Dit is welbekend dat die ontluikende mark-ekonomieë van die wêreld die vernaamste ontvangers van buitelandse direkte beleggings is. 'n Nadere beskouing van hierdie ekonomieë het getoon dat die meerderheid van sulke beleggings na die sogenaamde BRICS-lande (die Bondsrepubliek van Brasilië, die Russiese Federasie, die Republiek van Indië, die Volksrepubliek van China en die Republiek van Suid-Afrika) gaan. 'n Studie van die politieke en ekonomiese omgewings van die BRICS-lande het tot die gevolgtrekking gelei dat hierdie lande tien politieke risikofaktore in gemeen het, naamlik nasionalisering, beslaglegging, kruipende onteiening, onverwisselbaarheid van valuta, kontrakbreuk, nie-nakoming van regeringswaarborge, oorlog, gewelddadige burgerlike onrus, nie-gewelddadige burgerlike onrus, en terrorisme. Hierdie politieke risikofaktore is met behulp van 'n empiriese ondersoek binne die Suid-Afrikaanse konteks ondersoek. Gestruktureerde persoonlike onderhoude (wat op 'n vraelys gebaseer was), is gebruik om 'n sensus te onderneem. Hierdie onderhoude is vooraf met agente wat Sasria-versekering namens Sasria Bpk. verkoop, gereël. Die agente was hoofsaaklik konvensionele korttermyn-versekeraars wat alle eise namens Sasria Bpk. hanteer. Hulle was dus in 'n uitstekende posisie om die studie van waardevolle inligting te voorsien.

Thesis (PhD)--University of Stellenbosch, 2002. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: As the title suggests, the major challenge that this study faces is to set out and design a model for analysing and enabling the management of political risk as investment risk - a model that is both sensitive to and reflective of the comprehensive business and investment climate in a country, not only credit or country risk, or only pure political risk in its narrowest definition. In reading about past and more recent research in the field of political risk analysis, it becomes clear that many authors begin by noting the diversity and the discrepancies of the existing definitions of political risk, but evidence in political risk insurance shows that the major perceived political risks that investors insure their interests against seem to be confiscation, expropriation and nationalisation. In the light of this study's findings though, a case can be put forward for urging that the conceptualisation of political risk be extended to further include any or all of the micro political risk factors and their indicators that have been identified to ensure that political events do not impact negatively on a foreign company's profitability. Foreign investors put assets at risk to achieve their objectives and the assessment of these risks, including political risks, is the key to successful operations. Opportunities and risks are often two sides of the same coin and political risk comprises a large part of the environmental forces in terms of the management challenges a Multinational Company (MNC) faces in any investment climate. A firm's foreign investment strategy deals with the positioning of the organisation in an uncertain host country environment and investment climate. This study attempts to explain how a firm's political risk exposure, which refers to the sensitivity of a firm's projected profitability and operationability in a host country to changes in the investment climate, could be managed and reduced. It is hoped that political risk analysis and management can assist foreign operations in managing the risks that might have otherwise proven to be destructive to profitability and operationability. It is irresponsible to present a potential investor with a risk assessment that does not incorporate political risk factors and their indicators, let alone environmental, societal and socio-economic risk factor indicators. Ultimately any business climate, regardless of the country being studied, is underwritten by a political system, political climate, political culture and business culture of the system in which foreign business wishes to operate profitably. What is often labelled as unnecessary and irrelevant detail in risk analysis often results in a lack of using micro risk factors and their indicators and an underestimation of the importance of such micro risk indicators. Hopefully this study takes up the challenge of showing that political risk can be managed and political risk analysis can be made more precise - that it is possible to measure and manage political risk. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Soos die titel van hierdie studie voorstel is een van die grootste uitdagings die ontwerp van 'n model vir die analise van politieke risiko as beleggingsrisiko - 'n model wat ter selfde tyd sensitief is vir en weerspieëlend van 'n land se algemeen omvattende besigheids- en beleggingsklimaat, en nie slegs suiwer politieke risiko in die nouste sin van die woord nie. 'n Literatuurstudie van meer onlangse navorsing, asook navorsing wat in die verlede gedoen is oor politieke risiko en die analise daarvan, dui daarop dat baie outeurs melding maak van die diversiteit en teenstrydighede in die bestaande definisies van politieke risiko. Die teenwoordigheid van versekering teen politieke risiko wys egter daarop dat die primêre politieke risiko's waarteen beleggers hulle belange verseker meesal nasionalisering en onteiening is, asook die beslaglegging op beleggings. Teen die agtergrond van hierdie studie se bevindinge, kan daar egter 'n saak uitgemaak word vir die verbreeding van die konseptualisering van politieke risiko om enige of alle van die mikro-politieke risiko faktorindikatore wat in hierdie studie identifiseer word in te sluit, om sodoende te verseker dat die negatiewe gevolge wat politieke gebeure moontlik mag inhou vir 'n buitelandse maatskappy se belange, sover moontlik beperk word. Buitelandse beleggers stel bates bloot aan risiko's ten einde voorafgestelde doelwitte te bereik en die assessering van hierdie risiko's, insluitende politieke risiko's, is 'n groot bydraende' faktor tot die suksesvolle bedryf van buitelandse beleggings. Geleenthede en risiko's is dikwels twee kante van diesIefde muntstuk en politieke risiko maak 'n groot deel uit van die uitdagende beleggingsomgewing waarin die bestuur van 'n multinasionale korporasie (MNK) daagliks moet funksioneer. 'n Maatskappy se buitelandse beleggingstrategie handel met die posisionering van die organisasie in die onvoorspelbare beleggingsklimaat van 'n vreemde land. Hierdie studie poog ook om te verduidelik hoe die mate waarin 'n firma blootgestel word aan politieke risiko, met ander woorde die sensitiwiteit van 'n firma se voorgenome winsgewendheid en bedryf teenoor veranderinge in die beleggingsklimaat van 'n vreemde land, bestuur en verminder kan word. Daar word gehoop dat politieke risiko analise en die bestuur daarvan 'n bydra kan lewer tot buitelandse besighede se bestuur van hierdie risiko's, wat andersins 'n vemietgende impak kan hê op die winsgewendheid van buitelandse bedrywighede. Dit is onverantwoordelik om aan 'n buitelandse belegger 'n risiko analise voor te lê wat nie politieke risiko faktore en die daarmee gepaardgaande indikatore insluit nie. Die studie argumenteer verder dat faktorindikatore wat die fisiese omgewing, sosiale asook sosio-ekonomiese faktore aanspreek ook in 'n risiko analise ingesluit moet word. Oplaas is enige besigheidsklimaat, nieteenstaande die land wat bestudeer word, onderskryf deur 'n politieke stelsel, politieke klimaat, politieke kultuur en besigheidskultuur van die stelsel waarin die buitelandse besigheid winsgewende resultate as doelwit het. Wat dikwels beskou word as onnodige en irrelevante detail in risiko analise lei dikwels tot 'n gebrek aan die insluiting van mikro-risiko faktore en hulle indikatore weens 'n onderskatting van die noodsaaklikheid daarvan om juis sulke mikro-risiko faktorindikatore in 'n risiko analise in te bou. Hierdie studie aanvaar hopelik die uitdaging om te wys dat politieke risiko tog bestuur kan word en dat politieke risiko analise tog meer eksak gemaak kan word - dat dit wel moontlik is om politieke risiko te meet en bestuur.

This study examines the wide-ranging and critical factors which have impacted on the African National Congress' (ANC) emerging foreign investment policy. It identifies and analyses the matrix of political and socio-economic factors which have combined at global and national levels to shape ANC policy perspectives towards foreign direct investment (FDI). In so doing, the study adopts an eclectic theoretical and methodological approach. It draws on various theoretical traditions to propose a framework that is heuristic and contingent, rather than axiomatic. With regard to foreign investment, in particular, it recommends a theoretical pluralism emphasising 'engagement' through praxis and sound political (state) action. The study argues that the ANC has reconsidered many of its basic assumptions on the nature of the post-apartheid economy and discusses the reasons for those shifts. The reasons include, in particular, global political and economic trends and the balance of forces in South Africa. These have combined to ensure the ANC's broad acceptance of an 'open-door policy' towards FDI so long as it occurs on terms not inconsistent with national objectives. The emerging policy sees the state playing an active role in encouraging and guiding FDI to specific areas and sectors supportive of broad-based development. Foreign investors will be encouraged to form joint ventures with emerging black businesses and agree to foster training, skills development and affirmative action. Harnessing the benefits of FDI will be important for the success of wider strategies designed to place the economy on a firmer, more sustainable growth path.

This study examines the effects of conflict on socio-economic development. It focuses on the ongoing political conflict in the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality due to national political factionalism that has negatively affected service delivery. Political conflict led to the absence of the municipal manager from 2009, impacting the administration of the Metro. Since that time, no municipal manager has held office for more than four months. The municipal manager’s job is crucial to the operation of the Metro, including the allocation of funds required for service delivery. Service delivery has therefore been negatively affected by the conflict, with waste removal being particularly neglected. This has been prevalent in areas such as New Brighton and Motherwell, which will be the primary focus of this treatise. This study found that, as a consequence of the situation in the Metro community members have become indifferent to political affairs. However, they still seek change and have faith that their livelihoods could be improved.