<p> </p><p> </p><p> </p><p>The extinction risk of threatened species has traditionally been assessed by the use of tools of Population Viability Analysis (PVA). Species interactions, however, have seldom been accounted for in PVA:s. The omission of species interactions in risk assessments may further lead to serious mistakes when setting target sizes of populations. Even a slight abundance decrease of a target species may result in changes of the community structure; in the worst case leading to a highly impoverished community. Of critical importance to conservation is therefore the question of how many individuals of a certain population that is needed in order to avoid this kind of consequences. In the current study, a stochastic multispecies model is used to estimate minimum ecological viable populations (MEVP); earlier defined as “the minimum size of a population that can survive before itself or some other species in the community becomes extinct”. The MEVP:s are compared to population sizes given by a single species model where interactions with other species are treated as a constant source incorporated in the species specific growth rate. MEVP:s are found to be larger than the population sizes given by the single species model. The results are trophic level dependent and multispecies approaches are suggested to be of major importance when setting target levels for species at the basal level. Species at higher trophic levels, however, are altogether more prone to extinction than species at the basal level, irrespective of food web size and food web complexity.</p><p> </p>

The extinction risk of threatened species has traditionally been assessed by the use of tools of Population Viability Analysis (PVA). Species interactions, however, have seldom been accounted for in PVA:s. The omission of species interactions in risk assessments may further lead to serious mistakes when setting target sizes of populations. Even a slight abundance decrease of a target species may result in changes of the community structure; in the worst case leading to a highly impoverished community. Of critical importance to conservation is therefore the question of how many individuals of a certain population that is needed in order to avoid this kind of consequences. In the current study, a stochastic multispecies model is used to estimate minimum ecological viable populations (MEVP); earlier defined as “the minimum size of a population that can survive before itself or some other species in the community becomes extinct”. The MEVP:s are compared to population sizes given by a single species model where interactions with other species are treated as a constant source incorporated in the species specific growth rate. MEVP:s are found to be larger than the population sizes given by the single species model. The results are trophic level dependent and multispecies approaches are suggested to be of major importance when setting target levels for species at the basal level. Species at higher trophic levels, however, are altogether more prone to extinction than species at the basal level, irrespective of food web size and food web complexity.

Status and distribution of the Mediterranean monk seal in the northeastern Mediterranean were studied between October 2003 and December 2005. In total, 7 research cruises and 8 research visits were carried out to the region in the study period. The study was generally focused on two regions. First region was mainly around the Cilicia basin in the northeastern Mediterranean where a known Mediterranean monk seal colony (the Cilician colony) inhabits. Second region was around the Gulf of iskenderun where the population status of the monk seals was unknown.In the northeastern Mediterranean, all monk seal caves especially those used for breeding have been checked for whelping and monitored during the study period. In total, 7 pups were found including one death pup in the study period. Observations of the breeding behavior of the species indicated that, whelping also takes place in 2 new caves in addition to the 39 caves already reported for the study area in the earlier studies. Increase in the number of breeding caves showed that the breeding sites of the species has been expanded within the last 5 years. The Cilician colony size was estimated as 30 individuals in 2005. Identification catalog for each individual in the Cilician colony was prepared. Finally, population viability analysis (PVA) for the Cilician monk seal colony was carried out by evaluating the vital parameters of the species, which have been collected since 1994. This analysis was carried out for both pre-conservation phase and the post-conservation phase. In post conservation phase, the survival and fecundity rate of the Cilician colony was found as 0.976 and 0.169 respectively whereas these values were estimated as 0.902 and 0.200 respectively in pre-conservation phase. It was found that there is a 26.9% risk that the monk seal colony abundance will fall below the existing level (30 individuals) at least once during the next 20 years and there is also 0.2% risk that the monk seal colony abundance will fall below 12 at least once during the next 20 years. The risk was found as 21.7% by evaluating the status of the colony in preconservation phase. It was the first PVA study for this species, in which all the parameters used in the analysis were based on the study population, instead of the congeneric Hawaiian Monk Seal. Prior to this study, although monk seals have been frequently sighted by local people in the region, status of the Mediterranean monk seals and presence of the suitable habitats for the species in the Gulf of iskenderun was unknown. Therefore, population status of the Mediterranean monk seal in the Gulf of iskenderun and suitable habitats were investigated. In total, 30 caves were discovered and 7 of them were classified suitable for the Mediterranean monk seal. In addition, a monk seal information network was established in the region in order to gain information about the species especially when the individuals are sighted (alive, injured or death). In total, 51 sighting reports were obtained from local people via the Mediterranean monk seal information network during the study period. Since there are sampling difficulties due to critical status of the Mediterranean monk seal, alternative sampling techniques were investigated in order to find answers to questions related to the monk seal colony inhabiting in the northeastern Mediterranean. For identification of the individuals, comparison of the individuals and monitoring the individuals, 3D model construction technique from photographs was tested as an alternative photoidentification technique for the Mediterranean monk seal. It was found that at least 100 reference points were needed to construct the 3D model of the monk seal.

Rapid development and urbanization of the Lower Florida Keys in the last 30 years has fragmented the habitat of the Lower Keys marsh rabbit (Sylvilagus palustris hefneri) and threatened it with extinction. Current threats exist at multiple spatiotemporal scales and include threats due to development, invasive species, and global climate change. On Boca Chica Key, the Lower Keys marsh rabbit (LKMR) exists as a metapopulation on Naval Air Station-Key West (NASKW). I conducted a population viability analysis to determine the metapopulation's risk of extinction under multiple management scenarios by developing a spatially-explicit, stage-structured, stochastic matrix model using the programs RAMAS Metapop and ArcGIS. These management scenarios include clearance of airfield vegetation, habitat conversion, and control of feral cats as an invasive species. Model results provided the Navy with relative risk estimates under these different scenarios. Airfield clearance with habitat conversion increased extinction risk, but when coupled with feral cat control, risk was decreased. Because of the potential of sea-level rise due to human-induced global climate change, and its projected impact on the biodiversity of the Florida Keys, I estimated the impacts of rising sea levels on LKMR across its geographic distribution under scenarios of no, low (0.3m), medium (0.6m), and high (0.9m) sea-level rise. I also investigated impacts due to 2 treatments (allowing vegetation to migrate upslope and not allowing migration), and 2 land-use planning decisions (protection and abandonment of humandominated areas). Not surprisingly, under both treatments and both land-use planning decisions, I found a general trend of decreasing total potential LKMR habitat with increasing sea-level rise. Not allowing migration and protecting human-dominated areas both tended to decrease potential LKMR habitat as compared with allowing migration and abandoning human-dominated areas. In conclusion, conservation strategies at multiple scales need to be implemented in order to reduce threats to LKMR, such as development, invasive species, and global climate change.

abstract: Despite years of effort, the field of conservation biology still struggles to incorporate theories of animal behavior. I introduce in Chapter I the issues surrounding the disconnect between behavioral ecology and conservation biology, and propose the use of behavioral knowledge in population viability analysis. In Chapter II, I develop a framework that uses three strategies for incorporating behavior into demographic models, outline the costs of each strategy through decision analysis, and build on previous work in behavioral ecology and demography. First, relevant behavioral mechanisms should be included in demographic models used for conservation decision-making. Second, I propose rapid behavioral assessment as a useful tool to approximate demographic rates through regression of demographic phenomena on observations of related behaviors. This technique provides behaviorally estimated parameters that may be applied to population viability analysis for use in management. Finally, behavioral indices can be used as warning signs of population decline. The proposed framework combines each strategy through decision analysis to provide quantitative rules that determine when incorporating aspects of conservation behavior may be beneficial to management. Chapter III applies this technique to estimate birthrate in a colony of California sea lions in the Gulf of California, Mexico. This study includes a cost analysis of the behavioral and traditional parameter estimation techniques. I then provide in Chapter IV practical recommendations for applying this framework to management programs along with general guidelines for the development of rapid behavioral assessment. / Dissertation/Thesis / M.S. Biology 2012

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / This dissertation evaluated the age-sex structure, group size and population density of Alouatta guariba clamitans in 40 forest fragments. We also present a Population Viability Analysis for the subspecies. The study was conducted at Campo de Instrução de Santa Maria (CISM), an area of 5,876 ha belonging to the Ministry of Defense (Brazilian Army) and surrounding areas, located in the municipality of Santa Maria (Rio Grande do Sul State, South Brazil). The fieldwork was conducted from March 2012 to February 2013, totaling 58 days and sampling effort of 431 hours. Our data suggest high mortality in the brown howler monkey populations at CISM. The record of low densities, low occupancy rates in fragments and small group size supports our conclusions. Statistical analyzes showed significant differences between the current population parameters and the previously registered. The PVA results suggest the fragment size and adult female survival as the best parameters contributing for the population growth. Yellow fever is an important threat, especially if the incidence of new outbreaks is high. For the long-term persistence of A. g. clamitans at CISM, the minimum viable population must be at least 573 individuals living in a minimum suitable forest area of 516 ha, which is perfectly plausible for the CISM area. In Rio Grande do Sul state there are practically no conservation units, especially in the western range of the distribution of the brown howler monkey and reinforces the important role of CISM in this scenario, although not a conservation unit. Therefore, if the metapopulation dynamics is granted, it is able to ensure regional long-term survival of A. g. clamitans, unless it suffers more intensely other impacts (such as a new yellow fever outbreak) in a near future. / A presente dissertação avaliou a abundância e densidade das populações, o tamanho e a composição sexo-etária de grupos sociais de Alouatta guariba clamitans em 40 fragmentos florestais no município de Santa Maria. Além disso, apresenta uma análise de viabilidade populacional para a subespécie. Este estudo foi conduzido no Campo de Instrução de Santa Maria (CISM), uma área com 5.876 ha pertencente ao Ministério da Defesa (Exército Brasileiro) localizada no município de Santa Maria (Depressão Central do Rio Grande do Sul), e em áreas particulares do seu entorno. Foram realizadas no período de março de 2012 a fevereiro de 2013 doze campanhas de censo, totalizando 58 dias de campo com esforço amostral de 431 horas. Nossos dados sugerem que houve alta mortalidade nas populações de bugios do CISM após o último levantamento populacional, realizado em 2004. Essa conclusão é apoiada principalmente pela constatação de baixas densidades, reduzidas taxas de ocupação dos fragmentos e grupos com tamanho inferior ao encontrado anteriormente na mesma área. As análises estatísticas mostram que os parâmetros populacionais atuais diferem significativamente dos registrados anteriormente. Os resultados da AVP sugerem que o tamanho do fragmento, a sobrevivência e disponibilidade de fêmeas adultas são os parâmetros que melhor contribuem para as tendências de crescimento populacional. A febre amarela é uma ameaça importante, especialmente se a incidência de novos surtos for alta e a atual composição populacional, de acordo com o modelo, não foi capaz de se recuperar adequadamente em 100 anos. Para a persistência de A. g. clamitans no CISM a população mínima viável deve ser de pelo menos 573 indivíduos em uma área >516 ha de habitat adequado. O que é perfeitamente viável para o CISM, uma vez que o fragmento SAR possui uma área de 977,3 ha. Além disso, no Rio Grande do Sul atualmente praticamente inexistem unidades de conservação, especialmente na metade oeste da distribuição do bugio ruivo. Isso ressalta o papel importante do CISM, ainda que não se trate de uma Unidade de Conservação, logo, se assegurada, a dinâmica de metapopulação é capaz de garantir a sobrevivência regional A. g. clamitans em longo prazo, a menos que a mesma venha a sofrer mais intensamente outros impactos (ex: novo surto de febre amarela) em um futuro próximo.

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Baseline data on a species' distribution and abundance are essential for developing practical conservation management plans. Such data are difficult to obtain for many low density cryptic carnivores. The Scottish wildcat, Felis silvestris silvestris, is no exception with &LT;400 individuals thought to remain. Its conservation has been further complicated by extensive hybridisation and introgression with the domestic cat (F.s.catus). Hybridisation has also resulted in difficulties in discriminating between wildcats, wildcat x domestic hybrids (hybrids) and tabby coloured feral domestic cats. This has inhibited survey efforts, leading to a lack of general ecological information. Using the most recent identification tools available, extensive surveys using various methods including camera trapping were carried out across Northern Scotland in order to examine the current status of the Scottish wildcat. Current distribution indicates a more restricted range than recent studies. Wildcats are at risk of hybridisation from feral domestic cats and in particular, hybrids, throughout their current probable range. The distribution of hybrids overlaps with both feral domestic cats and wildcats, pointing to a significant threat from hybrids acting as a bridge between wildcats and feral cats. Mean density estimates of 3.5 (SD=0.7) wildcats/100 km² were comparable with those from other studies in Scotland using different survey methods. Total population size estimates ranged between 115-314 individuals depending on local densities and home range size. Population viability analysis (PVA) indicated the current population is not viable unless management actions are undertaken in the near future (Mean time to extinction = 48.2 years (SD = 9.39), probability of extinction=1, SE = 0), and that reducing mortality rates and/or supplementing populations from captive bred cats are likely to be necessary to achieve viability. Based on these data, the Scottish wildcat may be more endangered than many other species classified as Endangered and the current status of the Scottish wildcat should be reviewed.

The development and implementation of effective species and population-specific management strategies requires population-specific information. To demonstrate the relative extirpation risk associated with various road mortality scenarios for a population of Blanding’s turtles at Canadian Nuclear Laboratories in Chalk River, Ontario, a Population Viability Analysis was conducted. Road mortality of two adult females every ten years resulted in population extirpation within 200 years relative to a stable population not experiencing road mortality. To accommodate informed decision-making for the management of this species at risk, the movement patterns and habitat selection of this Blanding’s turtle population were described. There was no significant difference between males and females in distance moved between relocations in either the spring or the summer, but turtles moved greater distances in the spring than in the summer. Annual and seasonal home range size did not differ between the sexes or between spring and summer periods. A compositional analysis indicated Blanding’s turtles preferred marsh habitats over bog, swamp, lake, and upland. Matched-paired logistic regression was used to determine selection of microhabitat features, such as type of vegetation, in the spring and summer. Turtles preferred sites with warmer air temperatures, shallower water, a higher availability of open water, and greater coverage of emergent and floating vegetation types in the spring period. In the summer period, turtles preferred sites characterized by cooler, deeper water, a higher availability of open water, and greater coverage of emergent and floating vegetation types. This population of Blanding’s turtles appears to be relatively small and the continued threat of road mortality indicates a delicate situation for its persistence. Considering seasonally preferred habitats will best inform management decisions for seasonal work restrictions and future development plans.

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(理学) / 甲第21614号 / 理博第4521号 / 新制||理||1649(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院理学研究科生物科学専攻 / (主査)教授 村山 美穂, 教授 幸島 司郎, 教授 平田 聡 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Science / Kyoto University / DGAM