The exact ecological and economic role of lion Panthera leo populations on small enclosed reserves is poorly understood. The management and monitoring of such populations is important to ensure their long-term survival. The prey use, range use and habitat selection of an isolated lion population were investigated. The study was conducted on a small (> 1000km2), enclosed predator camp of Tswalu Kalahari Reserve, situated in the Northern Cape Province of the Republic of South Africa. The prey selection, prey preferences and prey biomass removal were determined by using indirect and direct observations. Kill sites, carcasses and scats were located by spoor tracking and opportunistic observations and collated into a prey selection list. The prey selection was used to determine any prey preferences and the prey biomass removal by the lion population. The scats data was corrected for relative prey biomass and compared to the kill data and uncorrected scat data. 19 prey types were used, with the gemsbok Oryx gazelle and blue wildebeest Connochaetes taurinus being utilized most. The lion population had clear preferences for specific small and large mammals which concurred with other studies done on Kalahari lion behaviour. The prey biomass removal (9.9kg/Lion feeding Unit/day) was higher than several other studies done on lion consumption rates. The range use and habitat selection were determined by using direct and indirect observations. The minimum convex polygon method and kernel density estimates were used to delineate the ranges of the lion population. The mean range size of the Tswalu lions (91 km2) was similar to those found for lions in more mesic environments. The lions also had clear habitat preferences which depended on the habitat preferences of the prey and the prey density. A population viability analysis, using VORTEX 9.72, was conducted. An Ecological capacity was determined and used to model various environmental scenarios. The population was found to be viable, but constant monitoring and updating are needed. Management recommendations for the conservation of lions and their prey are provided. / Dissertation (MSc)--University of Pretoria, 2010. / Animal and Wildlife Sciences / unrestricted

A beach conservation programme protecting nesting loggerhead (Caretta caretta) and leatherback (Dermochelys coriacea) sea turtles in South Africa was started in 1963. As initial numbers of nesting females were low for both species (107 loggerheads and 24 leatherbacks) it was proposed that the protection of eggs, hatchlings and nesting females along the nesting beach would induce population growth and prohibit local extinction. Today, 50 years later, the loggerhead population exceeds 650 females per annum, whereas the leatherback population counts about 65 nesting females per year. The trend for leatherback turtles is that the population has been stable for about 30 years whereas loggerheads are increasing exponentially. Thus, this thesis investigated several life-history traits to explain the differing responses to the ongoing beach conservation programme. Reproductive output and success were assessed for both species; it was hypothesised that environmental conditions are sub-optimal for leatherback turtles to reproduce successfully. It was ascertained that nesting loggerhead females deposit larger clutches than leatherbacks (112 ± SD 20 eggs and 100 ± SD 23 eggs, respectively), but that annual reproductive output per individual leatherback female exceeds that of loggerhead turtles (±700 eggs and ±448 eggs, respectively) because they exhibit a higher intra-seasonal nesting frequency (leatherbacks n = 7 and loggerheads n = 4 from Nel et al. 2013). Emergence success (i.e. the percentage of hatchlings produced) per nest was similar for both species (loggerhead 73.6 ± SD 27.68 % and leatherback turtles 73.8 ± SD 22.70 %), but as loggerhead turtles nest in greater numbers, i.e. producing more hatchlings per year, the absolute population growth potential favours the loggerhead turtle. The second factor investigated was sex ratio because sea turtles display temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) where extreme incubation temperatures can skew the sex ratio (i.e. feminising or masculinising a clutch). It was suspected that leatherback turtles are male-biased as this is the southern-most rookery (for both species). Further, leatherback nests are generally closer to the high tide mark, which might induce a cooling effect. Standard histological techniques were applied to sex hatchlings and a generalized linear model (GLM) was used to approximate annual sex ratio. Loggerhead sex ratio (2009 - 2011) was estimated at 86.9 ± SE 0.35 % female-biased; however, sufficient replication for the leatherback population was only obtained for season 2010, which indicated a 97.1 % (95 % CI 93.3 - 98.7) female bias. Both species are, thus, highly female-biased, and current sex ratio for leatherback turtles is not prohibiting population growth. Current sex ratios, however, are not necessarily indicative of sex ratios in the past which would have induced present population growth. Thus, to account for present population growth profiles, sex ratios from the past needed to be ascertained. Annual sex ratios (1997 - 2011) were modelled from historical air and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) but no significant change over time was obtained for either loggerhead or leatherback turtles (linear regression; p ≥ 0.45). The average sex ratio over this 15-year period for the South African loggerhead turtle was approximated at 77.1 ± SE 3.36 % female-biased, whereas leatherbacks exhibited a 99.5 ± SE 0.24 % female bias. Re-analysing data from the mid-80s by Maxwell et al. (1988) also indicated a 77.4 % female bias for the South African loggerhead population. It is, therefore, highly likely that sex ratios of the South African loggerhead and leatherback sea turtle populations have been stable for at least three decades and are not accountable for the differing population growth profiles as they are displayed today. Another possibility that could explain the opposed population growth profiles is the time taken for animals to replace themselves, i.e. age at maturity. It was suspected that age at maturity for the South African loggerhead turtle is comparable with that for leatherbacks. Using data from a 30-year mutilation tagging experiment (i.e. notching), age at first reproduction for South African loggerhead females was estimated. Results ranged broadly but a mean of 36.2 ± SD 7.71 years was obtained using a Gaussian distribution. Age at reproduction of the South African leatherback turtle was not determined but the literature suggests a much younger age of 13.3 - 26.8 years (Zug & Parham 1996, Dutton et al. 2005, Avens et al. 2009, Jones et al. 2011). Therefore, population growth would favour leatherback turtles as they exhibit a much shorter generation time. Finally, it was concluded that all life-history parameters investigated favour leatherback turtles, yet loggerheads are displaying population growth. However, as there were no obvious constraints to population growth on the nesting beach, it is suspected that population growth of the South African leatherback turtle is either unobserved (due to inadequate monitoring not capturing sufficient numbers of nesting events to establish a trend) or that population growth is prohibited by some offshore factor such as industrial fisheries (or some other driver not yet identified). Monitoring should, thus, be expanded and offshore mortality monitored as the leatherback population nesting in South Africa is still critically endangered with nesting numbers dangerously low.

No description available.

<p> </p><p> </p><p> </p><p>The extinction risk of threatened species has traditionally been assessed by the use of tools of Population Viability Analysis (PVA). Species interactions, however, have seldom been accounted for in PVA:s. The omission of species interactions in risk assessments may further lead to serious mistakes when setting target sizes of populations. Even a slight abundance decrease of a target species may result in changes of the community structure; in the worst case leading to a highly impoverished community. Of critical importance to conservation is therefore the question of how many individuals of a certain population that is needed in order to avoid this kind of consequences. In the current study, a stochastic multispecies model is used to estimate minimum ecological viable populations (MEVP); earlier defined as “the minimum size of a population that can survive before itself or some other species in the community becomes extinct”. The MEVP:s are compared to population sizes given by a single species model where interactions with other species are treated as a constant source incorporated in the species specific growth rate. MEVP:s are found to be larger than the population sizes given by the single species model. The results are trophic level dependent and multispecies approaches are suggested to be of major importance when setting target levels for species at the basal level. Species at higher trophic levels, however, are altogether more prone to extinction than species at the basal level, irrespective of food web size and food web complexity.</p><p> </p>

The extinction risk of threatened species has traditionally been assessed by the use of tools of Population Viability Analysis (PVA). Species interactions, however, have seldom been accounted for in PVA:s. The omission of species interactions in risk assessments may further lead to serious mistakes when setting target sizes of populations. Even a slight abundance decrease of a target species may result in changes of the community structure; in the worst case leading to a highly impoverished community. Of critical importance to conservation is therefore the question of how many individuals of a certain population that is needed in order to avoid this kind of consequences. In the current study, a stochastic multispecies model is used to estimate minimum ecological viable populations (MEVP); earlier defined as “the minimum size of a population that can survive before itself or some other species in the community becomes extinct”. The MEVP:s are compared to population sizes given by a single species model where interactions with other species are treated as a constant source incorporated in the species specific growth rate. MEVP:s are found to be larger than the population sizes given by the single species model. The results are trophic level dependent and multispecies approaches are suggested to be of major importance when setting target levels for species at the basal level. Species at higher trophic levels, however, are altogether more prone to extinction than species at the basal level, irrespective of food web size and food web complexity.

Status and distribution of the Mediterranean monk seal in the northeastern Mediterranean were studied between October 2003 and December 2005. In total, 7 research cruises and 8 research visits were carried out to the region in the study period. The study was generally focused on two regions. First region was mainly around the Cilicia basin in the northeastern Mediterranean where a known Mediterranean monk seal colony (the Cilician colony) inhabits. Second region was around the Gulf of iskenderun where the population status of the monk seals was unknown.In the northeastern Mediterranean, all monk seal caves especially those used for breeding have been checked for whelping and monitored during the study period. In total, 7 pups were found including one death pup in the study period. Observations of the breeding behavior of the species indicated that, whelping also takes place in 2 new caves in addition to the 39 caves already reported for the study area in the earlier studies. Increase in the number of breeding caves showed that the breeding sites of the species has been expanded within the last 5 years. The Cilician colony size was estimated as 30 individuals in 2005. Identification catalog for each individual in the Cilician colony was prepared. Finally, population viability analysis (PVA) for the Cilician monk seal colony was carried out by evaluating the vital parameters of the species, which have been collected since 1994. This analysis was carried out for both pre-conservation phase and the post-conservation phase. In post conservation phase, the survival and fecundity rate of the Cilician colony was found as 0.976 and 0.169 respectively whereas these values were estimated as 0.902 and 0.200 respectively in pre-conservation phase. It was found that there is a 26.9% risk that the monk seal colony abundance will fall below the existing level (30 individuals) at least once during the next 20 years and there is also 0.2% risk that the monk seal colony abundance will fall below 12 at least once during the next 20 years. The risk was found as 21.7% by evaluating the status of the colony in preconservation phase. It was the first PVA study for this species, in which all the parameters used in the analysis were based on the study population, instead of the congeneric Hawaiian Monk Seal. Prior to this study, although monk seals have been frequently sighted by local people in the region, status of the Mediterranean monk seals and presence of the suitable habitats for the species in the Gulf of iskenderun was unknown. Therefore, population status of the Mediterranean monk seal in the Gulf of iskenderun and suitable habitats were investigated. In total, 30 caves were discovered and 7 of them were classified suitable for the Mediterranean monk seal. In addition, a monk seal information network was established in the region in order to gain information about the species especially when the individuals are sighted (alive, injured or death). In total, 51 sighting reports were obtained from local people via the Mediterranean monk seal information network during the study period. Since there are sampling difficulties due to critical status of the Mediterranean monk seal, alternative sampling techniques were investigated in order to find answers to questions related to the monk seal colony inhabiting in the northeastern Mediterranean. For identification of the individuals, comparison of the individuals and monitoring the individuals, 3D model construction technique from photographs was tested as an alternative photoidentification technique for the Mediterranean monk seal. It was found that at least 100 reference points were needed to construct the 3D model of the monk seal.

Rapid development and urbanization of the Lower Florida Keys in the last 30 years has fragmented the habitat of the Lower Keys marsh rabbit (Sylvilagus palustris hefneri) and threatened it with extinction. Current threats exist at multiple spatiotemporal scales and include threats due to development, invasive species, and global climate change. On Boca Chica Key, the Lower Keys marsh rabbit (LKMR) exists as a metapopulation on Naval Air Station-Key West (NASKW). I conducted a population viability analysis to determine the metapopulation's risk of extinction under multiple management scenarios by developing a spatially-explicit, stage-structured, stochastic matrix model using the programs RAMAS Metapop and ArcGIS. These management scenarios include clearance of airfield vegetation, habitat conversion, and control of feral cats as an invasive species. Model results provided the Navy with relative risk estimates under these different scenarios. Airfield clearance with habitat conversion increased extinction risk, but when coupled with feral cat control, risk was decreased. Because of the potential of sea-level rise due to human-induced global climate change, and its projected impact on the biodiversity of the Florida Keys, I estimated the impacts of rising sea levels on LKMR across its geographic distribution under scenarios of no, low (0.3m), medium (0.6m), and high (0.9m) sea-level rise. I also investigated impacts due to 2 treatments (allowing vegetation to migrate upslope and not allowing migration), and 2 land-use planning decisions (protection and abandonment of humandominated areas). Not surprisingly, under both treatments and both land-use planning decisions, I found a general trend of decreasing total potential LKMR habitat with increasing sea-level rise. Not allowing migration and protecting human-dominated areas both tended to decrease potential LKMR habitat as compared with allowing migration and abandoning human-dominated areas. In conclusion, conservation strategies at multiple scales need to be implemented in order to reduce threats to LKMR, such as development, invasive species, and global climate change.

abstract: Despite years of effort, the field of conservation biology still struggles to incorporate theories of animal behavior. I introduce in Chapter I the issues surrounding the disconnect between behavioral ecology and conservation biology, and propose the use of behavioral knowledge in population viability analysis. In Chapter II, I develop a framework that uses three strategies for incorporating behavior into demographic models, outline the costs of each strategy through decision analysis, and build on previous work in behavioral ecology and demography. First, relevant behavioral mechanisms should be included in demographic models used for conservation decision-making. Second, I propose rapid behavioral assessment as a useful tool to approximate demographic rates through regression of demographic phenomena on observations of related behaviors. This technique provides behaviorally estimated parameters that may be applied to population viability analysis for use in management. Finally, behavioral indices can be used as warning signs of population decline. The proposed framework combines each strategy through decision analysis to provide quantitative rules that determine when incorporating aspects of conservation behavior may be beneficial to management. Chapter III applies this technique to estimate birthrate in a colony of California sea lions in the Gulf of California, Mexico. This study includes a cost analysis of the behavioral and traditional parameter estimation techniques. I then provide in Chapter IV practical recommendations for applying this framework to management programs along with general guidelines for the development of rapid behavioral assessment. / Dissertation/Thesis / M.S. Biology 2012

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / This dissertation evaluated the age-sex structure, group size and population density of Alouatta guariba clamitans in 40 forest fragments. We also present a Population Viability Analysis for the subspecies. The study was conducted at Campo de Instrução de Santa Maria (CISM), an area of 5,876 ha belonging to the Ministry of Defense (Brazilian Army) and surrounding areas, located in the municipality of Santa Maria (Rio Grande do Sul State, South Brazil). The fieldwork was conducted from March 2012 to February 2013, totaling 58 days and sampling effort of 431 hours. Our data suggest high mortality in the brown howler monkey populations at CISM. The record of low densities, low occupancy rates in fragments and small group size supports our conclusions. Statistical analyzes showed significant differences between the current population parameters and the previously registered. The PVA results suggest the fragment size and adult female survival as the best parameters contributing for the population growth. Yellow fever is an important threat, especially if the incidence of new outbreaks is high. For the long-term persistence of A. g. clamitans at CISM, the minimum viable population must be at least 573 individuals living in a minimum suitable forest area of 516 ha, which is perfectly plausible for the CISM area. In Rio Grande do Sul state there are practically no conservation units, especially in the western range of the distribution of the brown howler monkey and reinforces the important role of CISM in this scenario, although not a conservation unit. Therefore, if the metapopulation dynamics is granted, it is able to ensure regional long-term survival of A. g. clamitans, unless it suffers more intensely other impacts (such as a new yellow fever outbreak) in a near future. / A presente dissertação avaliou a abundância e densidade das populações, o tamanho e a composição sexo-etária de grupos sociais de Alouatta guariba clamitans em 40 fragmentos florestais no município de Santa Maria. Além disso, apresenta uma análise de viabilidade populacional para a subespécie. Este estudo foi conduzido no Campo de Instrução de Santa Maria (CISM), uma área com 5.876 ha pertencente ao Ministério da Defesa (Exército Brasileiro) localizada no município de Santa Maria (Depressão Central do Rio Grande do Sul), e em áreas particulares do seu entorno. Foram realizadas no período de março de 2012 a fevereiro de 2013 doze campanhas de censo, totalizando 58 dias de campo com esforço amostral de 431 horas. Nossos dados sugerem que houve alta mortalidade nas populações de bugios do CISM após o último levantamento populacional, realizado em 2004. Essa conclusão é apoiada principalmente pela constatação de baixas densidades, reduzidas taxas de ocupação dos fragmentos e grupos com tamanho inferior ao encontrado anteriormente na mesma área. As análises estatísticas mostram que os parâmetros populacionais atuais diferem significativamente dos registrados anteriormente. Os resultados da AVP sugerem que o tamanho do fragmento, a sobrevivência e disponibilidade de fêmeas adultas são os parâmetros que melhor contribuem para as tendências de crescimento populacional. A febre amarela é uma ameaça importante, especialmente se a incidência de novos surtos for alta e a atual composição populacional, de acordo com o modelo, não foi capaz de se recuperar adequadamente em 100 anos. Para a persistência de A. g. clamitans no CISM a população mínima viável deve ser de pelo menos 573 indivíduos em uma área >516 ha de habitat adequado. O que é perfeitamente viável para o CISM, uma vez que o fragmento SAR possui uma área de 977,3 ha. Além disso, no Rio Grande do Sul atualmente praticamente inexistem unidades de conservação, especialmente na metade oeste da distribuição do bugio ruivo. Isso ressalta o papel importante do CISM, ainda que não se trate de uma Unidade de Conservação, logo, se assegurada, a dinâmica de metapopulação é capaz de garantir a sobrevivência regional A. g. clamitans em longo prazo, a menos que a mesma venha a sofrer mais intensamente outros impactos (ex: novo surto de febre amarela) em um futuro próximo.

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(理学) / 甲第21614号 / 理博第4521号 / 新制||理||1649(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院理学研究科生物科学専攻 / (主査)教授 村山 美穂, 教授 幸島 司郎, 教授 平田 聡 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Science / Kyoto University / DGAM