The three largest earthquakes in the last 25 years in southern California occurred on faults located adjacent to the southern San Andreas fault, with the M7.3 1992 Landers and M7.1 1999 Hector Mine earthquakes occurring in the eastern California shear zone (ECSZ) in the Mojave Desert, and the M7.2 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake occurring along the Laguna Salada fault in northern Baja California, Mexico. The locations of these events near to but not along the southern San Andreas fault (SSAF) is unusual in that the last major event on the SSAF occurred more than 300 years ago, with an estimated recurrence interval of 215± 25 years. The focus of this dissertation is to address the present-day deformation field along the North America-Pacific plate boundary in southern California and northern Baja California, through the analysis of GPS data, and elastic block and viscoelastic earthquake models to determine fault slip rates and rheological properties of the lithosphere in the plate boundary zone. We accomplish this in three separate studies. The first study looks at how strain is partitioned northwards along-strike from the southern San Andreas fault near the Salton Sea. We find that estimates for slip-rates on the southern San Andreas decrease from ~23 mm/yr in the south to ~8 mm/yr as the fault passes through San Gorgonio Pass to the northwest, while ~13-18 mm/yr of slip is partitioned onto NW-SE trending faults of the ECSZ where the Landers and Hector Mine earthquakes occurred. This speaks directly to San Andreas earthquake hazards, as a reduction in the slip rate would require greater time between events to build up enough slip deficit in order to generate a large magnitude earthquake. The second study focuses on inferring the rheological structure beneath the Salton Trough region. This is accomplished through analysis of postseismic deformation observed using a set of the GPS data collected before and after the 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake. By determining the slip-rates on each of the major crustal faults prior to the earthquake, we are able to model the pre-earthquake velocity field for comparison with velocities measured using sites constructed post-earthquake. We then determine how individual site velocities have changed in the 3 years following the earthquake, with implications for the rate at which the lower crust and upper mantle viscously relax through time. We find that the viscosity of the lower crust is at least an order of magnitude higher than that of the uppermost mantle, and hypothesize that this is due to mafic material emplaced at the base of the crust as the spreading center developed beneath the Salton Trough since about 6 Ma. The final study investigates crustal deformation and fault slip rates for faults in the northern Mojave and southern Walker Lane regions of the ECSZ. Previous geodetic studies estimated slip-rates roughly double those inferred via geological dating methods in this region for NW striking strike-slip faults, but significantly smaller than geologic estimates for the Garlock fault. Through construction of a detailed elastic block model, which selects only active fault structures, and applying a new, dense GPS velocity field in this region, we are able to estimate slip-rates for the strike-slip faults in the ECSZ that are much closer to those reported from geology.

Part I of this thesis investigates current deformation in western British Columbia from northern Vancouver Island in the south to Haida Gwaii in the north. The area is characterized by transition from the Cascadia subduction zone to the Queen Charlotte transform fault. The tectonic setting involves interactions between the Pacific, North America, Juan de Fuca, and Explorer plates, and the Winona block, involving a number of plate boundaries: the mainly strike-slip Queen Charlotte, Revere-Dellwood-Wilson and Nootka faults, the Explorer ridge, and the Cascadia subduction zone. Using GPS campaign data from 1993 to 2008 I derive a new crustal velocity field for Northern Vancouver Island and the adjacent mainland, and integrate it with previous velocity fields developed for Haida Gwaii, southern Vancouver Island and the adjacent mainland. The northern limit of the subduction zone is confirmed to be at Brooks Peninsula, where the direction of the crustal motion changes abruptly from ENE to NNE. I use viscoelastic models to explore what percentage of the observed deformation is transient, related to the earthquake cycle, and how much is permanent ongoing deformation, distributed off the continental margin. Previous authors have developed two competing end-member models that can each explain how the Pacific/North America plate convergence is accommodated off Haida Gwaii. These models assume either internal crustal shortening or underthrusting of the Pacific plate. These new GPS data allow me to conclude that underthrusting does occur, and that a small component (<15%) of the observed data reflects long-term deformation. South of Haida Gwaii the distinction between transient and long-term deformation is not as clear; however, I conclude that transient deformation alone cannot fully explain the observed velocities, and so long-term deformation likely must also occur. Part II of the thesis investigates the updip and downdip limits of the seismogenic zone of the Sumatra megathrust fault. Temperature and downdip changes in formation composition are controls proposed for these limits. To examine the thermal control I developed 2-D finite element models of the Sumatra subduction zone with smoothly varying subduction dip, variable thermal properties of the rock units, frictional heating along the rupture plane, and an appropriate thermal state for the incoming plate. The common updip thermal limit for seismic behaviour of 100-150°C occurs close to or at the trench in agreement with the rupture limit of the 2004 earthquake. Off central Sumatra the common downdip thermal limit range of 350-450°C occurs at 30-60 km depth. The 350°C isotherm location is in agreement with the earthquake limits but 450°C is deeper. North of Sumatra, 350°C occurs ~14 km deeper than the earthquake rupture limit. The proposed composition control for the downdip limit, the intersection of the subduction thrust with the forearc mantle, is at a depth of ~30 km, 140-200 km from the trench, in good agreement with the earthquake limits. These results support the conclusion that the Sumatra updip seismogenic limit is thermally controlled, but the downdip limit is governed by the intersection of the downgoing plate with the forearc Moho. / Graduate

La caractérisation des distributions spatio-temporelles des déformations transitoires le long de failles actives constitue actuellement l’un des axes privilégiés de recherches visant la compréhension des processus contrôlant le cycle sismique. Dans ce contexte, nous nous intéressons à deux sites d’études aux caractéristiques comportementales distinctes: la lacune sismique de Guerrero, siège de 4 séismes lents depuis 1997 (zone de subduction, d’une longueur de 100 km à l’ouest d’Acapulco au Mexique, dernière rupture en 1911, temps de récurrence ~4 ans) et le segment de Parkfield (segment de 20-30 km le long de la faille de San Andreas, Californie, 7 ruptures successives -Mw6- depuis 1857, temps de récurrence de ~22 ans). Dans le cas du Mexique, nous portons notre attention sur le séisme lent de 2009-2010 survenu au niveau de la lacune sismique et, dans le cas du segment de Parkfield, nous décrivons la déformation post-sismique suite au séisme du 28 septembre 2004, dernière rupture en date de ce segment, sur la période 2005-2010. Nous utilisons l’interférométrie radar différentiel satellitaire (DINSAR), complété de données GPS, pour estimer les faibles déformations (centimétriques) générées en surface par ces types de déformations. À l’issue de ce travail, dans le cas de la lacune sismique de Guerrero, nos mesures semblent montrer que le séisme lent de 2009-2010 affecte la partie sismogène de la lacune tout en affectant une portion de la subduction qui dépasse les limites géographiques de celle-ci. Dans le cas de Parkfield, nous parvenons à mettre en avant une prolongation temporelle jusqu’en 2010 du glissement post-sismique en plus d’une extension spatiale de ce glissement qui dépasse les limites de la rupture de 2004. Ces nouveaux éléments permettent de discuter plus en avant l’impact de ces déformations transitoires sur le comportement de ces systèmes de failles situés tout deux, sur des sites d’intérêts scientifiques majeurs. / Characterizing the spacio-temporal evolution of transient deformations along active faults is, by now, one of the most promising ways to better understand the mechanisms that drive the seismic cycle. In this context, we focused our attention on two areas that exhibit different characteristic behaviour types: the Guerrero seismic gap, a location of 4 consecutive slow slip events since 1997 (subduction zone, 100 km long westward from Acapulco, Mexico, last ruptured in 1911, repeating time ~4 years) and the Parkfield segment (20-30 km long segment, San Andreas fault, California, 7 successive breaks -Mw6- since 1857, repeating time ~22 years). In the case of Mexico, we particularly focused our attention on the 2009-2010 slow slip event that occurred at the gap location. In the case of Parkfield, we described the post-seismic deformation related to the 28th September 2004 Mw6 event (last recorded break) from 2005 to 2010. We used space-based differential radar interferometry (DINSAR) in addition to GPS data, to assess surface displacements at centimeter scale that are in relation with those two phenomena. As an outcome of the work, in the Guerrero seismic gap case, our measurements indicate that the 2009-2010 slow slip event has affected the seismogenic part of the gap and extents outside the spatial limits of it. In the case of Parkfield, our measurements indicate that the Parkfield segment has a post-seismic behaviour that lasts until 2010 at least and spatially extends outside the edge the 2004 coseismic trace along the fault line. These elements allow us to discuss the implication of such transient deformations in the two particular cases of the Guerrero seismic gap and the Parkfield segment, both of first scientific interest.

L’étude des séismes géants de subduction présente un intérêt de premier ordre, car ils sontsuffisamment puissants pour exciter le manteau et déclencher sa relaxation visco-élastique. Cephénomène est caractérisé par des déformations à grande échelle spatiale (plusieurs milliers dekilomètres) et temporelle (plusieurs décennies). L’étude des déformations post-sismiques en surfacepar géodésie spatiale permet de contraindre les caractéristiques géométriques et rhéologiques del’interface de subduction, ouvrant ainsi la voie à l’étude du cycle sismique dans sa globalité.Le 27 février 2010 se produit le séisme de Mw 8.8, dans la région du Maule, au large du Chili. Lasubduction de la plaque Nazca sous la plaque continentale Sud-Américaine offre, pour la premièrefois, la possibilité de mesurer de manière continue et dense les déformations post-sismiques sur plusde 1500 km. Par ailleurs, plus de 10 ans de campagnes de mesures GPS, ont permis d’imager uncouplage très hétérogène tout au long de l’interface de subduction. L’imbrication alors visible entreles déformations post-sismiques et inter-sismiques, appuyée par l’étude de la sismicité historique,met ainsi en évidence les interactions inter-segments que seuls les modèles visco-élastiques de cyclesismique permettront de mieux comprendre.Cette thèse a été centrée autour de deux axes principaux, qui conduisent vers l’objectif finaldes modèles visco-élastiques de cycle sismique. Le premier et principal objectif est l’étude desdéformations post-sismiques du Maule. J’ai ainsi traité et analysé les cinq ans de données aprèsle séisme afin d’extraire le champ de déformation post-sismique. Ces données ont alors permis decontraindre les modèles visco-élastiques, grâce à la méthode des éléments finis. Un modèle combinéd’afterslip et de relaxation visco-élastique dans l’asthénosphère et dans un chenal à faible viscositétrès profond, permet ainsi d’expliquer le champ de déformation horizontal mais aussi verticalobservé. L’amplitude et la complexité des déformations en champ proche résulte de "l’afterslip",tandis que la relaxation dans le chenal permet de reproduire le très fort soulèvement de la Cordillèredes Andes. Enfin, la relaxation dans l’asthénosphère est responsable de l’extension sur plusieursmilliers de kilomètres des déformations post-sismiques. De plus, la continuité de l’effort de terrainet le traitement des données recueillies a permis de combler l’ultime gap de données. Il a ainsiété possible de déterminer un champ de vitesse inter-sismique continu sur la quasi totalité del’interface. Finalement, même si un modèle de cycle sismique à l’échelle de la subduction Chiliennen’a pas encore pu être réalisé, le modèle de post-sismique apporte déjà de nouveaux indices sur lesinteractions entre les différents segments de l’interface Chilienne, suite au dernier séisme. / The study of giant earthquakes on subduction zone represents a main interest. They are indeedsufficiently powerful to excite the mantle and trigger its viscoelastic relaxation, over a very largespatial (thousands of kilometers) and temporal (several decades) scale. Postseismic deformation,monitored by spatial geodesy, are a proxy to the geometrical and rheological characteristics of thesubduction interface, that will allow us to study the whole seismic cycle.On February 27th 2010 in the region of Maule, Chile, occurs the Mw 8.8 megathrust earthquake.Yet, the subduction of the Nazca plate beneath the continental South-American plate offers, forthe first time, the opportunity to measure continuously and densely the postseismic deformationfollowing the earthquake, over more than 1500 km. Otherwise, more than a decade of GPS repeatedmeasurements allowed to image a very heterogeneous coupling all along the Chilean interface. Thevisible imbrication between postseismic deformation and interseismic loading, supported by historicaland instrumental seismicity, highlights interactions between the segments. Viscoelastic modelsof seismic cycle appears to be the only way to understand these interactions.This PhD focused on two main axes, that will lead to the development of viscoelastic modelsof seismic cycle. The first part was dedicated to the study of postseismic deformation followingthe Maule earthquake. Therefore, we processed and analyzed very precisely GPS data in orderto extract the postseismic pattern and modeled it using the finite elements method. A combinedmodel of afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation in the asthenosphere and in a low viscosity channel,extending deep along the slab, can reproduce the complex deformation pattern, horizontaly and inverticaly. The amplitude and complexity of the near-field deformation result from aseismic slip onthe fault plane, while the great uplift of the Cordillera is reproduced by relaxation in the channel.The far field extension, up to 1600 km, entirely results from relaxation in the asthenosphere. Onthe other hand, the continuity of campaign measurements was the occasion to fill the ultimate gapof data, and thus estimate a continuous interseismic velocity field from the North of the Maulerupture zone up to North Chile. Finally, even if the final viscoelastic models of seismic cycle couldnot be processed yet, the present postseismic model already brings new insights on interactionsbetween the different segments of the Chilean interface, following the last Chilean earthquake.

This thesis focuses on the Manyi Fault in Northern Tibet which experienced a M_w 7.6 earthquake in 1997. The remoteness of the area limits the feasibility of measurements in the field, however the climate makes it ideal to study by remote sensing, specifically Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR). The mechanics of the earthquake have been well documented however there are still numerous questions about the other stages of the earthquake cycle (postseismic and interseismic) across the fault. Previous studies of the postseismic motion across the Manyi Fault using four years of ERS SAR data show the deformation can be explained by either viscoelastic relaxation of a Standard Linear Solid body with a viscosity of 4x10¹⁸ Pa s or afterslip. We use the ERS timeseries and ratemaps formed from a network of ENVISAT SAR scenes from 2003-2010 to analyse the postseismic deformation. We create a series of afterslip models based on rate-and-state frictional laws, along with series of viscoelastic models with various rheologies (Maxwell and Burgers). Our results show that an afterslip model fits the data slightly better than a Burgers rheology but not within resolvable errors. A range of afterslip models fit the data well, with frictional parameters ranging from 8x10^-4 to 2x10^-3 and a preseismic slip rate of 8 to 20 mm/yr. The best-fitting Burgers rheology has a Kelvin element viscosity of 4x10¹⁸ Pa s and Maxwell element viscosity of 6x10¹⁹ Pa s. We analyse the interseismic InSAR signal observed before the 1997 earthquake using ERS data from 1992-1997 to find that the Manyi Fault was accumulating strain at 3+/-2 mm/yr. We also find the seismic locking depth was 22+/-15 km which correlates with the maximum depth of slip during the earthquake. We show there is no significant deformation across the fault to the north of the Manyi Fault which may be an extension to the Kunlun fault. We discuss an analytical 2D thin viscous channel model from literature that has been shown to match the data in this thesis. We show that, once errors are properly accounted for, their model cannot explain both the post and preseismic datasets.

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第19283号 / 工博第4080号 / 新制||工||1629(附属図書館) / 32285 / 京都大学大学院工学研究科社会基盤工学専攻 / (主査)教授 田村 正行, 教授 小池 克明, 准教授 須﨑 純一 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM

Deformation in continents is not restricted to narrow bands but is spread over great distances within their interiors. A number of lines of evidence, including the distribution of earthquakes, reveal that the strength of different continental regions varies markedly. While it is relatively easy to qualitatively map out these variations, little progress has been made in quantifying the range of strength in the continents and identifying the physical mechanisms that control these variations. I investigate crustal deformation associated with the earthquake cycle, inflation of magma chambers beneath volcanoes, and changes in surface loads. Results of these models has important implications for our understanding of large-scale continental deformation and mountain building, in addition to both seismic and volcanic hazard assessment. Novel analytic solutions for simple shear with depth-dependent linear and non-linear viscoelastic rheologies are derived, in addition to analytical solutions for imposed harmonic tractions and displacements on an elastic layer over a Maxwell viscoelastic half space.

This dissertation consists of two parts and investigates the crustal deformation associated with great subduction zone earthquake at two different spatial scales. At the small scale, I investigate the stress transfer along the megathrust during great earthquakes and its effects on the forearc wedge. At the large scale, I investigate the viscoelastic crustal deformation of the forearc and the back arc associated with great earthquakes. Part I: In a subduction zone, the frontal region of the forearc can be morphologically divided into the outer wedge and the inner wedge. The outer wedge which features much active plastic deformation has a surface slope angle generally larger than that of the inner wedge which hosts stable geological formations. The megathrust can be represented by a three-segment model, the updip zone (velocity-strengthening), seismogenic zone (velocity-weakening), and downdip zone (velocity-strengthening). Our dynamic Coulomb wedge theory postulates that the outer wedge overlies the updip zone, and the inner wedge overlies the seismogenic zone. During an earthquake, strengthening of the updip zone may result in compressive failure in the outer wedge. The inner wedge undergoes elastic deformation. I have examined the geometry and mechanical processes of outer wedges of twenty-three subduction zones. The surface slope of these wedges is generally too high to be explained by the classical critical taper theory but can be explained by the dynamic Coulomb wedge theory. Part II: A giant earthquake produces coseismic seaward motion of the upper plate and induces shear stresses in the upper mantle. After the earthquake, the fault is re-locked, causing the upper plate to move slowly landward. However, parts of the fault will undergo continuous aseismic afterslip for a short duration, causing areas surrounding the rupture zone to move seaward. At the same time, the viscoelastic relaxation of the earthquake-induced stresses in the upper mantle causes prolonged seaward motion of areas farther landward including the forearc and the back arc. The postseismic and interseismic crustal deformation depends on the interplay of these three primary processes. I have used three-dimensional viscoelastic finite element models to study the contemporary crustal deformation of three margins, Sumatra, Chile, and Cascadia, that are presently at different stages of their great earthquake cycles. Model results indicate that the earthquake cycle deformation of different margins is governed by a common physical process. The afterslip of the fault must be at work immediately after the earthquake. The model of the 2004 Sumatra earthquake constrains the characteristic time of the afterslip to be 1.25 yr. With the incorporation of the transient rheology, the model well explains the near-field and far-field postseismic deformation within a few years after the 2004 Sumatra event. The steady-state viscosity of the continental upper mantle is determined to be 10^19 Pa S, two orders of magnitude smaller than that of the global value obtained through global postglacial rebound models. / Graduate

This dissertation consists of two parts and investigates the crustal deformation associated with great subduction zone earthquake at two different spatial scales. At the small scale, I investigate the stress transfer along the megathrust during great earthquakes and its effects on the forearc wedge. At the large scale, I investigate the viscoelastic crustal deformation of the forearc and the back arc associated with great earthquakes. Part I: In a subduction zone, the frontal region of the forearc can be morphologically divided into the outer wedge and the inner wedge. The outer wedge which features much active plastic deformation has a surface slope angle generally larger than that of the inner wedge which hosts stable geological formations. The megathrust can be represented by a three-segment model, the updip zone (velocity-strengthening), seismogenic zone (velocity-weakening), and downdip zone (velocity-strengthening). Our dynamic Coulomb wedge theory postulates that the outer wedge overlies the updip zone, and the inner wedge overlies the seismogenic zone. During an earthquake, strengthening of the updip zone may result in compressive failure in the outer wedge. The inner wedge undergoes elastic deformation. I have examined the geometry and mechanical processes of outer wedges of twenty-three subduction zones. The surface slope of these wedges is generally too high to be explained by the classical critical taper theory but can be explained by the dynamic Coulomb wedge theory. Part II: A giant earthquake produces coseismic seaward motion of the upper plate and induces shear stresses in the upper mantle. After the earthquake, the fault is re-locked, causing the upper plate to move slowly landward. However, parts of the fault will undergo continuous aseismic afterslip for a short duration, causing areas surrounding the rupture zone to move seaward. At the same time, the viscoelastic relaxation of the earthquake-induced stresses in the upper mantle causes prolonged seaward motion of areas farther landward including the forearc and the back arc. The postseismic and interseismic crustal deformation depends on the interplay of these three primary processes. I have used three-dimensional viscoelastic finite element models to study the contemporary crustal deformation of three margins, Sumatra, Chile, and Cascadia, that are presently at different stages of their great earthquake cycles. Model results indicate that the earthquake cycle deformation of different margins is governed by a common physical process. The afterslip of the fault must be at work immediately after the earthquake. The model of the 2004 Sumatra earthquake constrains the characteristic time of the afterslip to be 1.25 yr. With the incorporation of the transient rheology, the model well explains the near-field and far-field postseismic deformation within a few years after the 2004 Sumatra event. The steady-state viscosity of the continental upper mantle is determined to be 10^19 Pa S, two orders of magnitude smaller than that of the global value obtained through global postglacial rebound models. / Graduate

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(理学) / 甲第22256号 / 理博第4570号 / 新制||理||1656(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院理学研究科地球惑星科学専攻 / (主査)准教授 西村 卓也, 教授 福田 洋一, 准教授 深畑 幸俊 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Science / Kyoto University / DGAM