One of the main problems in statistical climatology is to construct a parsimonious model of natural climate variability. Such a model serves for instance as a null hypothesis for detection of human induced climate changes and of periodic climate signals. Fitting thismodel to various climatic time series also helps to infer the origins of underlying temporal variability and to cross validate it between different data sets. We consider the use of a spectral power-law model in this role for the surface temperature, for the free atmospheric air temperature of the troposphere and stratosphere, and for the total ozone. First, we lay down a methodological foundation for our work. We compare two variants of five different power-law fitting methods by means of Monte-Carlo simulations and their application to observed air temperature. Then using the best two methods we fit the power-law model to several observational products and climate model simulations. We make use of specialized atmospheric general circulation model simulations and of the simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3 (CMIP3). The specialized simulations allow us to explain the power-law exponent spatial distribution and to account for discrepancies in scaling behaviour between different observational products. We find that most of the pre-industrial control and 20th century model simulations capture many aspects of the observed horizontal and vertical distribution of the power-law exponents. At the surface, regions with robust power-law exponents—the North Atlantic, the North Pacific, and the Southern Ocean — coincide with regions with strong inter-decadal variability. In the free atmosphere, the large power-law exponents are detected on annual to decadal time scales in the tropical and subtropical troposphere and stratosphere. The spectral steepness in the former is explained by its strong coupling to the surface and in the latter by its sensitivity to volcanic aerosols. However power-law behaviour in the tropics and in the free atmosphere saturates on multi-decadal timescales. We propose a novel diagnostic to evaluate the relative goodness-of-fit of the autoregressive model of the first order (AR1) and the power-law model. The collective behaviour of CMIP3 simulations appears to fall between the two statistical models. Our results suggest that the power-law model should serve as an upper bound and the AR1 model should serve as a lower bound for climate persistence on monthly to decadal time scales. On the applied side we find that the presence of power-law like natural variability increases the uncertainty on the long-term total ozone trend in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes attributable to anthropogenic chlorine by about a factor of 1.5, and lengthens the expected time to detect ozone recovery by a similar amount.

One of the main problems in statistical climatology is to construct a parsimonious model of natural climate variability. Such a model serves for instance as a null hypothesis for detection of human induced climate changes and of periodic climate signals. Fitting thismodel to various climatic time series also helps to infer the origins of underlying temporal variability and to cross validate it between different data sets. We consider the use of a spectral power-law model in this role for the surface temperature, for the free atmospheric air temperature of the troposphere and stratosphere, and for the total ozone. First, we lay down a methodological foundation for our work. We compare two variants of five different power-law fitting methods by means of Monte-Carlo simulations and their application to observed air temperature. Then using the best two methods we fit the power-law model to several observational products and climate model simulations. We make use of specialized atmospheric general circulation model simulations and of the simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3 (CMIP3). The specialized simulations allow us to explain the power-law exponent spatial distribution and to account for discrepancies in scaling behaviour between different observational products. We find that most of the pre-industrial control and 20th century model simulations capture many aspects of the observed horizontal and vertical distribution of the power-law exponents. At the surface, regions with robust power-law exponents—the North Atlantic, the North Pacific, and the Southern Ocean — coincide with regions with strong inter-decadal variability. In the free atmosphere, the large power-law exponents are detected on annual to decadal time scales in the tropical and subtropical troposphere and stratosphere. The spectral steepness in the former is explained by its strong coupling to the surface and in the latter by its sensitivity to volcanic aerosols. However power-law behaviour in the tropics and in the free atmosphere saturates on multi-decadal timescales. We propose a novel diagnostic to evaluate the relative goodness-of-fit of the autoregressive model of the first order (AR1) and the power-law model. The collective behaviour of CMIP3 simulations appears to fall between the two statistical models. Our results suggest that the power-law model should serve as an upper bound and the AR1 model should serve as a lower bound for climate persistence on monthly to decadal time scales. On the applied side we find that the presence of power-law like natural variability increases the uncertainty on the long-term total ozone trend in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes attributable to anthropogenic chlorine by about a factor of 1.5, and lengthens the expected time to detect ozone recovery by a similar amount.

In this thesis we provide an existence result for a regularized model of viscoelastic non- newtonian fluid. We consider incompressible fluid with shear rate dependent viscosity and with Cauchy stress tensor capable to describe stress relaxation. An elastic part of the Cauchy stress tensor is governed by Oldroyd-type differential equation. In particular, we are interested in fluids with strong shear thinning effect. We prove that if the viscosity function µ (D) is such that tensor µ (D) D is p-coercive, monotone and has (p − 1)-growth for p > 6 5 and some other additional assumptions are satisfied, then there exists a solution to the system of PDEs describing the flow in a bounded domain. The proof is not simple because the convective term is not integrable with a high power. The problem is solved using Lipschitz truncation method for evolution PDEs. 1

The biomass size spectrum - the power-law scaling relationship between average individual size and total biomass - has often been studied in lake and marine ecosystems, but rarely in lotic systems. The objective of this study was to test for characteristic biomass spectra in small temperate streams. Seasonal fish and macroinvertebrate data, including population abundance and biomass estimates, were collected in three wadeable, southern West Virginia streams from October 2013 to May 2015. Fish abundances were estimated with 3-pass electrofishing (depletion) surveys and individuals were weighed in the field. Macroinvertebrates were collected with a Hess sampler and returned to the lab for identification to the lowest practical level (usually genus). Published length-mass regressions were then used to estimate individual mass. All size spectra relationships (linear regression of log-log data) were highly significant (p<0.001). Size spectra intercepts were variable and may reflect seasonal differences in fish and invertebrate densities. Size spectra slopes were more consistent, with a mean slope of approximately -0.73, suggesting a common scaling relationship between stream consumers at differing trophic levels.

Submitted by Maicon Juliano Schmidt (maicons) on 2015-07-13T19:17:40Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Eduardo Schnurr Siqueira.pdf: 1543388 bytes, checksum: 203a2765367b043538126c29889d7be5 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-07-13T19:17:40Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Eduardo Schnurr Siqueira.pdf: 1543388 bytes, checksum: 203a2765367b043538126c29889d7be5 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-01-31 / Nenhuma / Fluidos não-Newtonianos apresentam relação não linear entre a tensão de cisalhamento e a taxa de cisalhamento, ou seja, sua viscosidade não é constante. Eles estão presentes na natureza (sangue, lamas, areia movediça), assim como em muitos produtos industriais classificam-se nesta categoria, tais como produtos alimentícios (iogurtes, queijos cremosos, doces de frutas, chocolate ), tintas, borrachas, polímeros fundidos, soluções poliméricas, adesivos e gomas. Nos casos em que a viscosidade diminui com aumento da taxa de cisalhamento, os fluidos são classificados como pseudoplásticos; os que apresentam comportamento inverso são classificados como dilatantes. O modelo Power-Law é utilizado em engenharia para modelar ambos os comportamentos. Computational Fluid Dynamics - CFD (Dinâmica dos Fluidos Computacional) é uma ferramenta utilizada na simulação numérica de escoamentos de fluidos Newtonianos e não-Newtonianos. Inúmeros códigos comerciais e livres são utilizados atualmente, dentre eles o código livre e aberto Multiphase Flow with Interphase Exchanges (MFIX), o qual foi desenvolvido visando a simulação numérica de escoamentos multifásicos reativos do tipo sólido-gás em leitos fluidizados. O objetivo do presente trabalho é implementar no MFIX o modelo Power-Law, validar a modificação e realizar um estudo de caso utilizando o modelo. Com a implementação de um modelo não-Newtoniano ao código, pretende-se abrir caminho para a simulação de escoamentos multifásicos do tipo sólido-líquido não-Newtoniano, bem como aumentar a potencialidade do código, a fim de se estudar casos monofásicos de escoamentos de fluidos não-Newtonianos sujeitos à transferência de calor. O modelo implementado foi validado através da comparação com resultados da literatura para o escoamento em uma cavidade. Posteriormente, foram realizadas simulações do escoamento não isotérmico e isotérmico em torno de um prisma de seção quadrada imerso em um canal. Foram variados os parâmetros número de Prandtl, índice do modelo Power-Law e razão de bloqueio. Verificou-se que o número de Nusselt tem influência direta e é fortemente influenciado pela razão de bloqueio e inversamente, com pouca intensidade, pelo índice Power-Law. O número de Prandtl também influenciou diretamente no número de Nusselt e demonstrou que, quanto maior o seu valor, mais acentuada fica a variação do número de Nusselt em função da razão de bloqueio. / Non-Newtonian fluids exhibit nonlinear relationship between the shear stress and the shear rate, that is, its viscosity is not constant. They are present in nature (blood, sludge) as well as many industrial products are classified in this category, such as food products (yoghurt, soft cheeses, jams, chocolate), paints, rubber, polymer melts, polymer solutions, adhesives and gums. In cases where viscosity decreases with increasing shear rate, the fluids are classified as shear-thinning, while the opposite behavior is classified as shear-thickening. The Power-Law model is used in engineering to model both behaviors. Computational Fluid Dynamics - CFD is a tool used in the numerical simulation of Newtonian and non-Newtonian fluid flow. Numerous free and commercial codes are used today, including the free and open source Multiphase Flow with Interphase Exchanges (MFIX), which was developed to the numerical simulation of multiphase (fluid-solid) and reactive flows. The goal of this work is to implement the Power-Law model in MFIX, validate the implementation and conduct a case study using the model implemented. With the implementation of a non-Newtonian model to the code, a new possibility for the simulation of multiphase flows of solid-non-Newtonian liquids is opened, as well as there is an increase in the capability of the code regarding the study of single-phase fluid flows of Non-Newtonian fluids subject to heat transfer. The model was implemented and validated by comparison with literature results for the flow in a lid driven cavity. Subsequently, simulations were carried out concerning isothermal and non-isothermal flows around a square cylinder immersed in a channel. Parameters of analyses consisted of Prandtl number, Power-Law index and blockage ratio, for a fixed Reynolds number. It was found that the Nusselt number is strongly influenced by the blockage ratio and decreases with the increase of the Power-Law index. The Prandtl number also directly influences the process. With its increase, the dependence of the Nusselt number with the blockage ratio is more pronounced.

In this thesis we examine the ability of the log-periodic power law model to accurately predict the end of speculative bubbles on financial markets through modeling of asset price dynamics on a selection of historical bubbles. The methods we use are based on a nonlinear least squares estimation which yields predictions of when the bubble will change regime.We find evidence which support the occurrence of LPPL-patterns leading up to the change in regime; asset prices during bubble periods seem to oscillate around a faster-than-exponential growth. In most cases the estimation yields accurate predictions, although we conclude that the predictions are quite dependent on at which point in time the prediction is conducted. We also find that the end of a speculative bubble seems to be influenced by both endogenous speculative growth and exogenous factors. For this reason we propose a new way of interpreting the predictions of the model, where the end dates should be interpreted as the start of a time period where the asset prices are especially sensitive to exogenous events. We propose that negative news during this time period results in a regime shift of the bubble. This study is the first to address both the possibilities and the limitations of the LPPL-model, and should therefore be considered as a contribution to the academia.

Ces travaux de thèse ont pour but d'obtenir une meilleure connaissance des mécanismes de dégradation, lors de l'exposition à un milieu agressif, de primaires de peinture en phase aqueuse (époxy-polyamino amide) utilisés dans l'industrie aéronautique pour la protection contre la corrosion de l'alliage d'aluminium 2024 à l'aide des techniques d'impédances globale et locale. Deux revêtements formulés soit avec du chromate de strontium soit avec un mélange de pigments non-chromatés ont été comparés. Les diagrammes d'impédance des deux revêtements, mesurés dans des conditions sèches (en contact avec Hg), présentent un comportement proche de celui d'une capacité pure, et ont été analysés à l'aide du modèle en loi de puissance, qui correspond à un comportement CPE (Constant Phase Element). Lors de l'immersion dans une solution chlorurée, le comportement des revêtements s'écarte progressivement de l'idéalité. Les données d'impédance électrochimique obtenues pour différents temps d'immersion ont été analysées avec un modèle qui suppose une variation exponentielle de la résistivité le long de l'épaisseur du revêtement (modèle de Young). Cette analyse a confirmé que la pénétration de l'eau et des ions dans le revêtement ne se fait pas de façon identique. La vitesse de pénétration de l'eau est plus rapide et celle-ci affecte plus fortement la permittivité que la résistivité, alors que la diffusion des ions Na+ et Cl- est plus lente et affecte exclusivement la résistivité du revêtement. L'utilisation de ces modèles permet non seulement d'expliquer les comportements CPE et pseudo CPE observés sur les diagrammes d'impédance mais aussi de déterminer la prise en eau des revêtements durant le test. Celle-ci est en accord avec des mesures gravimétriques. L'effet d'auto-cicatrisation des deux revêtements en présence de blessures artificielles a ensuite été étudié par spectroscopie d'impédance électrochimique locale. Les diagrammes locaux et les cartographies (2D ou 3D) ont permis de suivre les phénomènes d'auto-cicatrisation pour le système chromaté ou bien le développement de la corrosion pour le système non-chromaté. Ce travail de thèse propose une méthodologie qui servira de référence pour développer et caractériser les performances de peintures contenant des inhibiteurs écologiques et en particulier leur processus d'auto-cicatrisation. / The aim of this work is to obtain a better understanding of the degradation mechanisms, as a function of exposition time in an aggressive environment, of commercial coatings (epoxy-polyaminoamide waterborne paint) used in aeronautical industry for corrosion protection of 2024 aluminium alloy by global and local impedance techniques. The coatings formulated with either strontium chromate (SrCrO4) or Cr(VI)-free pigments were compared. The behavior of dry coatings (in contact with Hg) was close to that of an ideal capacitor and could be accurately modelled with the power-law model corresponding to a CPE (Constant Phase Element). Upon immersion in NaCl solution, the behavior of the wet coatings became progressively less ideal, i.e. farther from a capacitive behavior. The impedance data was analyzed with the Young model that take into account the exponential variation of the coating resistivity along its thickness. This analysis confirmed that penetration of water and ions occurs on different time scales. The former process is faster and affects permittivity more strongly than resistivity; the latter is slower and affects almost exclusively resistivity. The models allows to explain not only the CPE or pseudo-CPE behaviors observed on impedance diagrams but also to determine the coatings water uptake during the test which is in good agreement with gravimetric measurements. Then, the self-healing properties of artificially damaged coatings were studied by local electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (LEIS). The local diagrams and the mappings (2D or 3D) allowed self-healing processes for the chromated system or corrosion developments for the unchromated system to be observed. The present work proposed a methodology to develop and to characterize coatings containing environmentally friendly inhibitors, and particularly the self-healing process.