<p>Financial bubbles are characterized by a large increase in the economic growth on the market as a whole or in specific industries. The change gives rise to an increase in the capital needed to finance this growth. Companies typically have a choice between equity and debt capital to finance its business and the mix of these types of capital is often referred to as the company’s capital structure. There has been a lot of research done in the field of financial bubbles and of</p><p>capital structure, as of yet no studies seem to address these two areas in combination.</p><p>The aim of this study is to examine if financial bubbles affect a company’s capital structure and through this also examine if the supposed changes in capital structure can be generalized.</p><p>The study comprise of two identical time-series which examines the changes in leverage and the choice of financing during the Swedish real estate bubble in the early nineties and the IT-crash at the end of the 2000th century. The study examines changes in leverage, price-to-book ratio and the choice between issuing convertible debt versus issuing equity, of eleven real estate companies and twelve IT-companies respectively.</p><p>This paper shows that a company’s capital structure is indeed affected by a financial bubble though the way it is affected during different financial bubbles differs. Significant changes in leverage and the choice between different types of financial instruments are identified in both time-series. The study also shows that neither the Pecking Order Hypothesis as presented by Myers (1984) nor the traditional trade-off theory can in whole explain these changes. A significant difference in leverage between the two groups can be identified which is consistent with earlier empirical studies on the difference between capital structures in different industries.</p><p>The results in this study seem to indicate that the changes in capital structure can be explained either by a supposed disturbance in the cost of different types of capital during the financial bubble or by the assumption that companies in specific industries (as the IT-industry) do not have the possibility to chose the type of financing freely.</p>

<p><strong>Variations in fertility have caused a problematic situation in Sweden among other European countries. According to </strong>the Council of Europe we are facing an economic and demographic challenge, when the baby boomers of the 1940’s are retiring. <strong>Economists have for a long time studied the connection between economic factors and fertility, and several studies have found a correlation between business cycles and birth rates. This connection is again of current interest 2008, when a financial bubble bursts at the same time as a baby boom occurs. A similar event happened in 1992 when the latest baby boom occurred at the same time as a financial bubble.</strong></p><p><strong> </strong></p><p>This study investigates the correlation between real disposable income, employment among women, the price development of small houses, family policies and fertility during the period 1960-2008. The conclusions are reached by studies of earlier research and literature on economic theory of fertility. In the analysis theories and the results of earlier research are compared to empiric macro data taken from the Swedish Statistical Agency.</p><p> </p><p>The conclusions are that a causal relation between economic factors and fertility exists, but it is not obvious; is fertility affected by variations in economic factors or the opposite? Employment affects both women’s income and their entitlement to parental benefit, which means that fertility and female employment are closely connected. Both financial bubbles and baby booms arise from the same psychological factors, which are rarely explained in economic models. When the Swedish parental benefit was introduced it had two effects; first it made the average age of women having their first baby increase, and secondly fertility became more closely connected to business cycles.<em>  </em></p>

Variations in fertility have caused a problematic situation in Sweden among other European countries. According to the Council of Europe we are facing an economic and demographic challenge, when the baby boomers of the 1940’s are retiring. Economists have for a long time studied the connection between economic factors and fertility, and several studies have found a correlation between business cycles and birth rates. This connection is again of current interest 2008, when a financial bubble bursts at the same time as a baby boom occurs. A similar event happened in 1992 when the latest baby boom occurred at the same time as a financial bubble.   This study investigates the correlation between real disposable income, employment among women, the price development of small houses, family policies and fertility during the period 1960-2008. The conclusions are reached by studies of earlier research and literature on economic theory of fertility. In the analysis theories and the results of earlier research are compared to empiric macro data taken from the Swedish Statistical Agency.   The conclusions are that a causal relation between economic factors and fertility exists, but it is not obvious; is fertility affected by variations in economic factors or the opposite? Employment affects both women’s income and their entitlement to parental benefit, which means that fertility and female employment are closely connected. Both financial bubbles and baby booms arise from the same psychological factors, which are rarely explained in economic models. When the Swedish parental benefit was introduced it had two effects; first it made the average age of women having their first baby increase, and secondly fertility became more closely connected to business cycles.

Financial bubbles are characterized by a large increase in the economic growth on the market as a whole or in specific industries. The change gives rise to an increase in the capital needed to finance this growth. Companies typically have a choice between equity and debt capital to finance its business and the mix of these types of capital is often referred to as the company’s capital structure. There has been a lot of research done in the field of financial bubbles and of capital structure, as of yet no studies seem to address these two areas in combination. The aim of this study is to examine if financial bubbles affect a company’s capital structure and through this also examine if the supposed changes in capital structure can be generalized. The study comprise of two identical time-series which examines the changes in leverage and the choice of financing during the Swedish real estate bubble in the early nineties and the IT-crash at the end of the 2000th century. The study examines changes in leverage, price-to-book ratio and the choice between issuing convertible debt versus issuing equity, of eleven real estate companies and twelve IT-companies respectively. This paper shows that a company’s capital structure is indeed affected by a financial bubble though the way it is affected during different financial bubbles differs. Significant changes in leverage and the choice between different types of financial instruments are identified in both time-series. The study also shows that neither the Pecking Order Hypothesis as presented by Myers (1984) nor the traditional trade-off theory can in whole explain these changes. A significant difference in leverage between the two groups can be identified which is consistent with earlier empirical studies on the difference between capital structures in different industries. The results in this study seem to indicate that the changes in capital structure can be explained either by a supposed disturbance in the cost of different types of capital during the financial bubble or by the assumption that companies in specific industries (as the IT-industry) do not have the possibility to chose the type of financing freely.

Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) has been the central assumption of financial modelling in the previous decades. At its core, it is a statement about the efficient incorporation of available information in the prices of assets, rendering each price a 'true' representation of the asset's intrinsic value. The notion of informationally efficient financial markets has been, since its formulation, entrenched in the very core of our understanding of how asset pricing works, yet, with ever so increasing frequency, when subjected to empirical scrutiny, it fails to prove its explanatory and predictive prowess. New academic strands emerged have emerged as a result, attempting to explain those empirical short-comings, with rather mixed results. The new models and theories often either explain a singular anomaly, rather than pro- viding a generalized and consistent theoretical framework, or are exclusive with the general state of financial markets, which tends to be efficient and rational. This thesis shall explore the relationship of information and financial mar- kets, taking into account developments that have occurred since the inception of the EMH. Subsequently it will present a new theoretical model for asset pric- ing and ipso facto the efficiency of financial markets, based on meta-analysis of information, along...

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T18:11:25Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Tales Augusto Queiroz Tomaz.pdf: 729788 bytes, checksum: 2811b8e85340fe0593dcacbc775d2507 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-12-15 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / The present Dissertation focuses on the relation between glocal phenomenon and financial hypervolatilzation of the cybercultural capitalism. Glocal phenomenon is the hybridization between local context and global satellized culture, inextricable mix articulated and modulated by instantaneous communication and deepened by the proliferation of technologies of virtual. It is therefore the very mediatic logic of contemporary civilization. Glocal phenomenon experiences sociotechnological trajectory of progressive prominence in social and cultural contemporary history, to become the default condition in cyberculture, understood here as the contemporary social-historical configuration grounded on and through the digital technologies and nets. Along with postindustrial processes, late capitalist economy acquires specific characteristics, among which the financial hypervolatilization, to which news constantly refer as financial bubbles and crises . In this scenario, the present reflection proposes as research problem the following questions: how is glocal inserted in the reproduction of the financial hypervolatilization in today s economy? What s the social-historical signification of the glocalized hypervolatility? These are the hypotheses designed to those questions: [1] communication massive and interactive media, hereafter converging in the transnational informational vector radicates in the basis of the economy transition to the flexible regime of accumulation and of the financial hypervolatilization in these times, articulated by human life glocalization; and [2] hypervolatilization, as sine qua non condition of contemporary economy, articulates the very mode of accumulation of the late capitalism, which becomes virtualized, denoting also in this area the presence of the crisis of the materiality of existence emerged in the development of the mediatic nets. The objectives of the research are, apart from apprehending the socio-structural mode of glocal operation, to investigate the relation between its presence in economy and the existence of the financial hypervolatilization. This research aims to accomplish these objectives by an exclusively theoretical methodology based on progressive revision of bibliography in the following perspectives: Paul Virilio s sociodromology and its late unfoldings by Eugênio Trivinho, with the concepts of glocal, mediatic visibility and cyberculture; the theoretical post-modernism, according to Fredric Jameson, Perry Anderson and Ciro Marcondes Filho; the financialization of the post-modern capitalism, as explained by David Harvey, Robert Reich and Zygmunt Bauman; and the simulation of real by signical-mediatic saturation, as in Jean Baudrillard s studies. By such characteristics, the research aims to contribute to the development of the studies in cyberculture and communications in Brazil / A presente Dissertação versa sobre a relação entre o fenômeno glocal e a hipervolatilização financeira do capitalismo cibercultural. Fio condutor da reflexão, o fenômeno glocal é a hibridação entre contexto local e cultura mundial satelitizada, mescla inextricável articulada e modulada pela comunicação instantânea e aprofundada com a proliferação das tecnologias do virtual. É, portanto, a própria lógica mediática da civilização contemporânea. O fenômeno glocal cumpre trajetória sociotecnológica de progressiva proeminência na história social e cultural contemporânea, até tornar-se condição padrão na cibercultura, encarada como categoria de época, atinente à configuração social-histórica atual, alicerçada nas e pelas tecnologias e redes digitais. Na esteira dos processos pós-industriais, a economia capitalista avançada adquire características diferenciadas, entre as quais destaca-se a hipervolatilização financeira, à qual o noticiário alude constantemente como bolhas e crises financeiras . Diante desse quadro, a presente reflexão propõe, como problemática de pesquisa, as seguintes questões: como o fenômeno glocal se põe na reprodução da hipervolatilização financeira atual? Qual a significação social-histórica da hipervolatilização mediática dos valores? A tais questões, sucedem-se estas hipóteses: [1] a comunicação mediática de massa e interativa, doravante confluentes no vetor informacional transnacional radica na base da transição da economia para o regime de acumulação flexível e (na base) da hipervolatilização financeira dos tempos atuais, articulada pela glocalização da vida humana; e [2] a hipervolatilização, como condição sine qua non da economia contemporânea, articula o próprio modo de acumulação dessa fase do capitalismo, que se torna virtualizado, indicando a presença, também nesse campo da vida humana, da crise da materialidade da existência desencadeada na formação das redes mediáticas. Os objetivos da pesquisa são, além de apreender o modo socioestrutural de operação do glocal, investigar a relação entre a sua presença na economia e a existência da hipervolatilização financeira. Para atingir esses objetivos, a pesquisa, de base exclusivamente teórica, adotou metodologia embasada em revisão bibliográfica progressiva, no âmbito das seguintes perspectivas: a sociodromologia de Paul Virilio, levada adiante nos estudos de Eugênio Trivinho sobre glocal, visibilidade mediática e cibercultura; o pós-modernismo teórico, conforme Fredric Jameson, Perry Anderson e Ciro Marcondes Filho; a financeirização do capitalismo pós-moderno, segundo David Harvey, Robert Reich e Zygmunt Bauman; e a simulação do real por saturação sígnico-mediática, nos termos de Jean Baudrillard. Com tais características, a pesquisa pretende contribuir para o desenvolvimento dos estudos sobre cibercultura e comunicação no Brasil

In this thesis we examine the ability of the log-periodic power law model to accurately predict the end of speculative bubbles on financial markets through modeling of asset price dynamics on a selection of historical bubbles. The methods we use are based on a nonlinear least squares estimation which yields predictions of when the bubble will change regime.We find evidence which support the occurrence of LPPL-patterns leading up to the change in regime; asset prices during bubble periods seem to oscillate around a faster-than-exponential growth. In most cases the estimation yields accurate predictions, although we conclude that the predictions are quite dependent on at which point in time the prediction is conducted. We also find that the end of a speculative bubble seems to be influenced by both endogenous speculative growth and exogenous factors. For this reason we propose a new way of interpreting the predictions of the model, where the end dates should be interpreted as the start of a time period where the asset prices are especially sensitive to exogenous events. We propose that negative news during this time period results in a regime shift of the bubble. This study is the first to address both the possibilities and the limitations of the LPPL-model, and should therefore be considered as a contribution to the academia.

Background: The 12th of March 2020 the Stockholm stock market fell close to eleven percent, the biggest decline on the market in modern time, as a result of the Covid-19 virus. Earlier studies have found that many individual investors make ill-considered decisions during sharp price falls which don't benefit their economic interest and that every new financial crisis offers new possibilities to expand the understanding about what underlying factors that are behind the crisis. Studies about psychological shortcomings have earlier been conducted, but not in connection with a stock market crash as a result of a pandemic, which means that there is not much research within the area. Therefore, there is an incentive to investigate which psychological biases individual investors were affected by during the corona crisis. Purpose: The purpose of this thesis is to study how a number of Swedish individual investors acted on the stock market during the corona crisis and if it varies depending on how much capital they manage. Which of the psychological biases herd behaviour, the disposition effect, loss aversion and extrapolation bias the individual investors that were interviewed was affected by and how they reasoned during the sharp stock market decline in March 2020. Method: The thesis has been conducted by a qualitative method to fulfil its purpose. The data collection consists of 10 semi-structured interviews with Swedish individual investors and statistics from the stockbroker Avanza. An abductive approach has been adopted to be able to analyse the studied subject and reach a conclusion. Conclusion: The thesis finds that the actions of the investigated individual investors can be divided into three categories. The ones that sold all their stocks when the stock market declined rapidly, the ones that didn’t do anything and the ones that bought more stocks successively. There is no clear connection between managing more money and getting less affected by psychological biases. Furthermore, the respondents were partly affected by how much earlier experience they had, whereas the ones with less experience were to a greater extent affected by psychological biases.

The phenomenon of financial bubbles is known to have impacted various markets since the seventeenth century. Such bubbles are known to form when the market drastically overvalues the price of an asset, causing its market value to increase hyperbolically, only to suddenly collapse once the untenable perceived future prospects of the asset are realized. Hence, it remains crucial for investors to be able to sell off assets residing within a bubble before they burst and their value is significantly diminished. Thus, portfolio optimization methods capable of accounting for financial bubbles in stock dynamics is a field of great value and interest for market participants. Portfolio optimization with respect to the mean-field is a relatively novel approach to accounting for the bubble-phenomenon. Hence, this paper investigates a previously unattempted method of portfolio optimization, providing a mean-field solution to the mean-variance trade-off problem, as well as providing new definitions of stock dynamics capable of diverting investors from bubbles. / Finansiella bubblor är ett fenomen som har påverkat marknader sedan 1600-talet. Bubblor tenderar att skapas när marknaden kraftigt övervärderar en tillgång vilket orsakar en hyperbolisk tillväxt i marknadspriset. Detta följs av en plötslig kollaps. Därför är det viktigt för investerare att kunna minska sin exponering mot aktier som befinner sig i en bubbla, så att risken för stora plötsliga förluster reduceras. Således är portföljoptimering där aktiedynamiken tar hänsyn till bubblor av högt intresse för marknadsdeltagare. Portföljoptimering med avseende på medelfältet är ett relativt nytt tillvägagångssätt för att behandla bubbelfenomen. Av denna anledning undersöks i detta arbete en hittills oprövad lösningsmetod som möjliggör en medelfältslösning till avvägningen mellan förväntad avkastning och risk. Där-utöver presenteras även ett antal nya modeller för aktier som kan bortleda investerare från bubblor.