Yes / Purpose: We develop new quantitative methods to estimate the level of speculation and long-term sustainability of Bitcoin and Blockchain. Design/Methodology/Approach: We explore the practical application of speculative bubble models to cryptocurrencies. We then show how the approach can be extended to provide estimated brand values using data from Google Trends. Findings: We confirm previous findings of speculative bubbles in cryptocurrency markets. Relatedly, Google searches for cryptocurrencies seem to be primarily driven by recent price rises. Overall results are sufficient to question the long-term sustainability of Bitcoin with the suggestion that Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash and Ripple may all enjoy technical advantages relative to Bitcoin. Our results also demonstrate that Blockchain has a distinct value and identity beyond cryptocurrencies - providing foundational support for the second generation of academic work on Blockchain. However, a relatively low estimated long-term growth rate suggests that the benefi ts of Blockchain may take a long time to be fully realised. Originality/value: We contribute to an emerging academic literature on Blockchain and to a more established literature exploring the use of Google data within business analytics. Our original contribution is to quantify the business value of Blockchain and related technologies using Google Trends.

Orientador: Eduardo Strachamn / Banca: Enéas Gonçalves de Carvalho / Banca: Ernani Torres Teixeira Filho / Resumo: O presente trabalho tem como objetivo analisar a experiência do Japão após os colapsos das bolhas especulativas dos ativos na década de 1990. Aceitando que o pior já passou, ou seja, que a crise financeira japonesa foi finalmente resolvida, uma coisa é certa; não antes de uma "década perdida" caracterizada por um longo período, de baixo crescimento, aumento das taxas de desemprego, deflação nos preços dos ativos, falências bancárias e persistência dos no-performing loans. Nesse contexto, as principais respostas obtidas por este trabalho foram: a crença que a recuperação econômica viria com o passar do tempo e a falta de entendimento sobre o tamanho do problema que a morosidade de atuação levaria ao sistema, explica em certo ponto a tolerância inicial do governo japonês frente à crise econômica. A política fiscal expansionista foi eficaz, mas, não utilizada de forma consistente, a natureza "stop-start" dos estímulos realizados, e em particular as prematuras reversões fiscais diminuíram a sua eficácia, outros fatores prováveis para a baixa eficácia durante os anos 90 foram: os estímulos fiscais podem ter sido prejudicados pela queda dos multiplicadores fiscais; os efetivos investimentos públicos foram menores que os anunciados e ao invés de se dar ênfase a obras públicas, priorizou-se cortes em impostos. De outra forma, um caminho fundamental de maximizar os estímulos fiscais é através da restauração do crédito do setor bancário, caso a recapitalização e as restaurações do setor fossem realizas em uma fase inicial, os efeitos dos estímulos poderiam ser de curta duração, se o sistema financeiro estivesse em boa saúde. No Japão, as injeções nos bancos "em grande escala" ocorreram apenas em 1999. Por outro lado, a política monetária, com base em uma versão alternativa da armadilha da liquidez levou o BOJ a tomar algumas medidas... (Resumo completo, clicar acesso eletrônico abaixo) / Abstract: This dissertation intend to analyze the experience of Japan after the collapse of speculative bubbles in assets in the 1990s. Accepting that the worst is over, that is to say, that the Japanese financial crisis was finally resolved, one thing is certain; not before a "lost decade" characterized by a long period of low growth, increasing rates of unemployment, deflation in asset prices, bank failures and persistence of no-performing loans. In this context, the main responses received for this work were: the belief that economic recovery would come with the passage of time and lack of understanding about the size of the problem that the slowness of action would lead to the system; this explains in some degree the initial tolerance of the Japanese government by the economic crisis. The expansionary fiscal was effective, but not consistently used, the nature of "stop-start" of the stimuli made, and in particular the early tax reversals decreased its effectiveness, other likely factors for the low efficiency during the year 1990 were: the fiscal stimuli may have been harmed by falling tax multipliers; the effective public investments were lower than those advertised instead of giving emphasis to public works, the priority was tax cuts. On the other hand, a fundamental way to maximize the tax incentives is through the restoration of credit from the banking sector, if the recapitalization and the restorations of the sector were held in an early stage, the effects of stimuli could be short term, if the financial system was in good health. In Japan, the injections in banks "large scale" occurred only in 1999. Moreover, monetary policy, based on an alternative version of the liquidity trap led the BOJ to take some innovative measures since 2001. Centered on a strategy to ensure liquidity and extend the warranties on direct purchases of assets, quantitative easing was implanted... (Complete abstract click electronic access below) / Mestre

Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-11T19:23:32Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2011-02-08Bitstream added on 2014-06-13T20:30:20Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 fraga_js_me_arafcl.pdf: 570399 bytes, checksum: c4d98662c4b2a66e86a84c364b2ae848 (MD5) / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / O presente trabalho tem como objetivo analisar a experiência do Japão após os colapsos das bolhas especulativas dos ativos na década de 1990. Aceitando que o pior já passou, ou seja, que a crise financeira japonesa foi finalmente resolvida, uma coisa é certa; não antes de uma “década perdida” caracterizada por um longo período, de baixo crescimento, aumento das taxas de desemprego, deflação nos preços dos ativos, falências bancárias e persistência dos no-performing loans. Nesse contexto, as principais respostas obtidas por este trabalho foram: a crença que a recuperação econômica viria com o passar do tempo e a falta de entendimento sobre o tamanho do problema que a morosidade de atuação levaria ao sistema, explica em certo ponto a tolerância inicial do governo japonês frente à crise econômica. A política fiscal expansionista foi eficaz, mas, não utilizada de forma consistente, a natureza “stop-start” dos estímulos realizados, e em particular as prematuras reversões fiscais diminuíram a sua eficácia, outros fatores prováveis para a baixa eficácia durante os anos 90 foram: os estímulos fiscais podem ter sido prejudicados pela queda dos multiplicadores fiscais; os efetivos investimentos públicos foram menores que os anunciados e ao invés de se dar ênfase a obras públicas, priorizou-se cortes em impostos. De outra forma, um caminho fundamental de maximizar os estímulos fiscais é através da restauração do crédito do setor bancário, caso a recapitalização e as restaurações do setor fossem realizas em uma fase inicial, os efeitos dos estímulos poderiam ser de curta duração, se o sistema financeiro estivesse em boa saúde. No Japão, as injeções nos bancos “em grande escala” ocorreram apenas em 1999. Por outro lado, a política monetária, com base em uma versão alternativa da armadilha da liquidez levou o BOJ a tomar algumas medidas... / This dissertation intend to analyze the experience of Japan after the collapse of speculative bubbles in assets in the 1990s. Accepting that the worst is over, that is to say, that the Japanese financial crisis was finally resolved, one thing is certain; not before a “lost decade” characterized by a long period of low growth, increasing rates of unemployment, deflation in asset prices, bank failures and persistence of no-performing loans. In this context, the main responses received for this work were: the belief that economic recovery would come with the passage of time and lack of understanding about the size of the problem that the slowness of action would lead to the system; this explains in some degree the initial tolerance of the Japanese government by the economic crisis. The expansionary fiscal was effective, but not consistently used, the nature of “stop-start” of the stimuli made, and in particular the early tax reversals decreased its effectiveness, other likely factors for the low efficiency during the year 1990 were: the fiscal stimuli may have been harmed by falling tax multipliers; the effective public investments were lower than those advertised instead of giving emphasis to public works, the priority was tax cuts. On the other hand, a fundamental way to maximize the tax incentives is through the restoration of credit from the banking sector, if the recapitalization and the restorations of the sector were held in an early stage, the effects of stimuli could be short term, if the financial system was in good health. In Japan, the injections in banks “large scale” occurred only in 1999. Moreover, monetary policy, based on an alternative version of the liquidity trap led the BOJ to take some innovative measures since 2001. Centered on a strategy to ensure liquidity and extend the warranties on direct purchases of assets, quantitative easing was implanted... (Complete abstract click electronic access below)

This thesis aims to study how much of price appreciations on the Swedish real-estate market in recent times have been fundamentally warranted, as well as if the unconventional monetary policies implemented by the Swedish central bank have had any interaction with these price escalations. The methodology employed to research this is divided into two parts. Firstly, a bubble component time series has been computed using a Kalman filtering technique in a state-space model in which the bubble is inferred from a fundamental equation. The next step involves studying the dynamics between the bubble element vis-a-vis the quantitative easing policies implemented by Riksbanken. This procedure involves estimating vector autoregressive models in which several policy variables are included in the nexus and analyzed simultaneously to better grasp how QE transmits and impacts the component for the bubble. The empirical results from the first segment designate that price inflation on the Swedish housing market has become more and more principally unjustifiable throughout the sample. However, no significant inference may be made in this stage as to whether or not the market is influenced by a speculative bubble. In the dynamic system, some, yet thin evidence is found of quantitative easing policies preceding the evolvement of exuberance in house prices. Conclusively, this thesis affirms most of the growth in the non-fundamental part of prices to an expansion of credit, which in turn cannot be accredited to the policies of the Swedish Riksbank. Only a slight expectational effect is found and therefore we conclude that quantitative easing only has a trivial impact on the development of a speculative bubble in the market for real-estate.

Thesis advisor: Harold Petersen / Using insights from Hyman Minsky’s Financial Instability Hypothesis (FIH), we develop a theoretical framework for how speculative bubbles may materialize in securities markets. Our model and empirical analysis show that agents place undue emphasis on recent experience of risk and returns when developing future expectations. We use the aggregate investor allocation to equities (aggregate total market capitalization of equities divided by the price of all real liabilities outstanding), Tobin’s Q (the aggregate market price of equities divided by the replacement cost of nonfinancial firms’ assets), Shiller Total Return Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings Ratio (TR CAPE), and Shiller Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings Ratio (CAPE) as proxy variables for bubbles. We find statistically significant, negative relationships between all four of these proxy variables and two dependent variables, Subsequent Ten-Year Annualized Cumulative Equity Market Returns (Nominal and Real), and also Subsequent 10-year Average Losses, thereby providing evidence against the Efficient Market Hypothesis and suggesting the possibility of speculative bubbles. / Thesis (BS) — Boston College, 2019. / Submitted to: Boston College. Carroll School of Management. / Discipline: Departmental Honors. / Discipline: Economics.

Dans un contexte économique mondialisé, les prises de position d’achat et/ou de vente sur les marchés financiers obéissent à des logiques qui échappent parfois à la rationalité (bulle spéculative…). Les prévisionnistes et les analystes financiers mobilisent une boite à outil statistique pour connaître les tendances futures à partir de l’étude des tendances passées. Cette boite à outils repose sur l’hypothèse de normalité des lois statistiques sous jacentes ce qui autorise des logiques d’inférence statistique, de test, de corrélation... On a pu observer par le passé que les résultats de ces projections ont souvent été miss à défaut : la crise financière que nous traversons correspond par exemple à un choc difficilement prévisible même s’il fait l’objet d’une rationalisation a posteriori. Notre objectif, partant de ce constat, est de renouveler les approches traditionnelles des prévisionnistes et analystes financiers en mobilisant deux approches complémentaires : l’intelligence économique appliquée au domaine financier et l’utilisation de techniques modernes de gestion de l’imprévisible. Dans ce travail interdisciplinaire, notre approche s’inspire tout d’abord du concept d’image, de réputation d'une entreprise cible et de la démarche du cycle de renseignement issue de l’approche de l’intelligence économique. De plus, nous pouvons compléter notre démarche à travers les travaux de Nassim Nicolas Taleb. Nous mobilisons enfin le concept de force de situation (François Julien) pour renforcer la décision des investisseurs institutionnels en situation d’incertitude. Pour valider notre contribution théorique, nous avons choisi le Vietnam comme terrain de recherche. A partir d’une approche qualitative conduite auprès de gérants de portefeuilles Vietnamiens, nous avons pu connaître mieux leurs pratiques de prises de décisions, les critères d’évaluation d’investissement différents issus des analyses de matrices stratégiques, leur perception de la réputation et le rôle de l’intelligence financière dans leur processus d’investissement. Nous proposons alors une méthode qualitative reposant sur la réputation pour caractériser le degré de robustesse d’une organisation à des chocs et élaborons en outre un système de renseignement financier en prenant en compte la hiérarchie des critères d’évaluation d’investissement des gérants de portefeuilles Vietnamiens. Notre démarche est illustrée par l’étude de cas d'une entreprise aquacole Vietnamienne. / In the context of economic globalization, the stand point of purchase and/or sale on the financial market obeys logics which escape sometimes rationality (speculative bubbles…).The forecasters and the financial analysts mobilize one statistical toolbox in order to know the future trends based on the study of the last trends.This toolbox builds on the assumption of normality of the statistical laws underlying which authorizes logics of statistical inference, test, correlation… We could observe in the past which the results of these projections were often failed:the financial crisis which we pass correspondent to a not easily foreseeable shock even if it is the object of a rationalization a posteriori. Our objective,on the basis of thisreport,is to renew the traditional approaches of the forecasters and financial analysts by mobilizing two complementary approaches: business intelligence applied to the financial field and the utilization of modern technologies of management of the unforeseeable risks.In this interdisciplinary work,our approaches are inspired,first of all concept oftheimage or of the reputation of a target company and approach of the intelligence cycle resulting from the approach of the business intelligence.Moreover,we can complete our approach through the principle of bounded rationality,that of the speculative bubble and that of the logic uncertain suggested by Nassim Nicolas Taleb. Finally, we mobilize the concept of force of situation(François Julien) in order to reinforce the decision of the institutional investors in uncertain situation.To validate our theoretical contribution,we chose Viet Nam as our ground of research.From a qualitative approach and based on experimentation ahead 5 Vietnamese portfolio managers, we could better know their practice of making decision, their different investment evaluation criteria, their perception of reputation and the role of the financial intelligence in their process of investment. Thus, we propose a qualitative method based on the reputation in order to characterize the degree of robustness of an organization faced to shocks and elaborate moreover a system of financial information by taking into account the hierarchy of the investment evaluation criteria of the Vietnamese portfolio managers. Our approach is illustrated through a case study of a Vietnamese aquaculture company.

Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2007

In this thesis we examine the ability of the log-periodic power law model to accurately predict the end of speculative bubbles on financial markets through modeling of asset price dynamics on a selection of historical bubbles. The methods we use are based on a nonlinear least squares estimation which yields predictions of when the bubble will change regime.We find evidence which support the occurrence of LPPL-patterns leading up to the change in regime; asset prices during bubble periods seem to oscillate around a faster-than-exponential growth. In most cases the estimation yields accurate predictions, although we conclude that the predictions are quite dependent on at which point in time the prediction is conducted. We also find that the end of a speculative bubble seems to be influenced by both endogenous speculative growth and exogenous factors. For this reason we propose a new way of interpreting the predictions of the model, where the end dates should be interpreted as the start of a time period where the asset prices are especially sensitive to exogenous events. We propose that negative news during this time period results in a regime shift of the bubble. This study is the first to address both the possibilities and the limitations of the LPPL-model, and should therefore be considered as a contribution to the academia.

Submitted by Maximilian-Benedikt Koehn (mb@koehn.cc) on 2015-10-27T13:40:42Z No. of bitstreams: 1 MasterThesis_FGV_MBK-2.pdf: 1998443 bytes, checksum: f5b2dd679c9a165738dd916b469de18e (MD5) / Rejected by Ana Luiza Holme (ana.holme@fgv.br), reason: Maximilian, In second page, the date is incorrect, it should be 2015. Also the pages numeration in the thesis is incorrect, it should started at the first page of the thesis but the number only appear in the introdution. and it should be at the bottom of the pages. Ex: Introdution is page 10 so in the bottom of the page you see the number 10. Also you didn't write the acknowledgement. It's mandatory in the thesis. Ana Luiza Holme 3799-3492 on 2015-10-27T13:49:55Z (GMT) / Submitted by Maximilian-Benedikt Koehn (mb@koehn.cc) on 2015-10-29T11:50:38Z No. of bitstreams: 1 MasterThesis_FGV_MBK_Final.pdf: 1963111 bytes, checksum: 7788e02d7ef86d4824fb7f131629e4d5 (MD5) / Rejected by Ana Luiza Holme (ana.holme@fgv.br), reason: Duplicidade, Duplicity on 2015-11-03T11:55:29Z (GMT) / Submitted by Maximilian-Benedikt Koehn (mb@koehn.cc) on 2015-11-03T14:54:38Z No. of bitstreams: 1 MasterThesis_FGV_MBK.pdf: 2335793 bytes, checksum: 0ce05e9480acae0f9da905ae2e91f3ba (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Ana Luiza Holme (ana.holme@fgv.br) on 2015-11-03T15:13:09Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 MasterThesis_FGV_MBK.pdf: 2335793 bytes, checksum: 0ce05e9480acae0f9da905ae2e91f3ba (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-11-03T15:16:18Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 MasterThesis_FGV_MBK.pdf: 2335793 bytes, checksum: 0ce05e9480acae0f9da905ae2e91f3ba (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-09-24 / Reviewing the definition and measurement of speculative bubbles in context of contagion, this paper analyses the DotCom bubble in American and European equity markets using the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model proposed by Engle and Sheppard (2001) as an econometrical - and on the other hand the behavioral finance as an psychological explanation. Contagion is defined in this context as the statistical break in the computed DCCs as measured by the shifts in their means and medians. Even it is astonishing, that the contagion is lower during price bubbles, the main finding indicates the presence of contagion in the different indices among those two continents and proves the presence of structural changes during financial crisis. / Revendo a definição e determinação de bolhas especulativas no contexto de contágio, este estudo analisa a bolha do DotCom nos mercados acionistas americanos e europeus usando o modelo de correlação condicional dinâmica (DCC) proposto por Engle e Sheppard (2001) como uma explicação econométrica e, por outro lado, as finanças comportamentais como uma explicação psicológica. Contágio é definido, neste contexto, como a quebra estatística nos DCC’s estimados, medidos através das alterações das suas médias e medianas. Surpreendentemente, o contágio é menor durante bolhas de preços, sendo que o resultado principal indica a presença de contágio entre os diferentes índices dos dois continentes e demonstra a presença de alterações estruturais durante a crise financeira.

This thesis deals with the impacts of information and communication technology investment surge on USA economic growth in the 1990s. Besides others, rapid development of these technologies also led to the creation of a stock market bubble, which affected the expansion phase of the economic cycle. Its burst in 2000-2001 resulted in economic slow-down and end of the longest recorded economic expansion in the history of the United States. Main part of the thesis discusses the benefits of information technology for economy and further evaluates the role of the speculative bubble in the development of consumption and investment expenditures. The thesis results suggest that the increase in capital intensity and sharp stock market price inflation significantly accelerated the dynamics of the economic growth in the second half of the described cycle.