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Yes / Purpose: We develop new quantitative methods to estimate the level of speculation and long-term sustainability of Bitcoin and Blockchain. Design/Methodology/Approach: We explore the practical application of speculative bubble models to cryptocurrencies. We then show how the approach can be extended to provide estimated brand values using data from Google Trends. Findings: We confirm previous findings of speculative bubbles in cryptocurrency markets. Relatedly, Google searches for cryptocurrencies seem to be primarily driven by recent price rises. Overall results are sufficient to question the long-term sustainability of Bitcoin with the suggestion that Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash and Ripple may all enjoy technical advantages relative to Bitcoin. Our results also demonstrate that Blockchain has a distinct value and identity beyond cryptocurrencies - providing foundational support for the second generation of academic work on Blockchain. However, a relatively low estimated long-term growth rate suggests that the benefi ts of Blockchain may take a long time to be fully realised. Originality/value: We contribute to an emerging academic literature on Blockchain and to a more established literature exploring the use of Google data within business analytics. Our original contribution is to quantify the business value of Blockchain and related technologies using Google Trends.

The historical long-term volatility and return on investment in single-family dwellings was investigated and compared with investments in equity, bonds and T-bill markets. Total return index for equity and fixed-income security indices were obtained from available sources, of course, a proper index for measurement of long-term changes in house prices was unavailable. In an effort to measure the house price changes, a relatively homogeneous pool of houses in the downtown Toronto area was selected and its price tracked over the study period of 44 years. Inflation rate affects the return of investments in everything similarly therefore this was not considered in the calculations. Results of comparing the investment of cash in one's family home versus in other investment vehicles showed that the ratio of investment growth to its volatility for a single-family house exceeded the ratios for other investments by a large margin.

The historical long-term volatility and return on investment in single-family dwellings was investigated and compared with investments in equity, bonds and T-bill markets. Total return index for equity and fixed-income security indices were obtained from available sources, of course, a proper index for measurement of long-term changes in house prices was unavailable. In an effort to measure the house price changes, a relatively homogeneous pool of houses in the downtown Toronto area was selected and its price tracked over the study period of 44 years. Inflation rate affects the return of investments in everything similarly therefore this was not considered in the calculations. Results of comparing the investment of cash in one's family home versus in other investment vehicles showed that the ratio of investment growth to its volatility for a single-family house exceeded the ratios for other investments by a large margin.

Este presente trabalho visa fornecer novas ferramentas para a análise de índices de qualidade no âmbito do planejamento agregado de investimentos em sistemas de distribuição primária. O planejamento agregado de investimentos representa uma metodologia de previsão de investimentos em Sistemas de Distribuição de uma empresa, que utiliza a análise estatística e classificação de rede em famílias para representação da rede, considera aspectos de incertezas e critérios de priorização de obras, em função dos recursos disponíveis, e informa o tipo de obra a ser realizada e o montante de investimentos necessário por tipo de obra. Este trabalho procura complementar o modelo através da análise técnica dos índices de qualidade, quantificando-se os benefícios obtidos ao longo do horizonte de estudo, através de um sistema computacional que, baseado nos resultados dos representantes dos grupos de redes, determina os índices técnicos para tais representantes, para as regionais definidas e para todo o sistema, possibilitando a análise gerencial da evolução da rede elétrica. Também foi desenvolvida ferramenta que permite a determinação do Custo Incremental Médio de Longo Prazo (CIMLP) e do Custo Marginal do sistema de média tensão, englobando subestações de distribuição e circuitos primários do sistema elétrico. O trabalho é finalizado com o estudo de um caso de planejamento de uma área de concessão de uma empresa fictícia, onde são executados os processamentos e analisados os resultados técnicos, de custos e de qualidade. / This work aims at developing new tools for the analysis of quality of supply indices regarding long term investment planning of primary electric power distribution systems. Investment planning in aggregated basis represents a established methodology for estimating future investments in all distribution systems of a utility, by using statistic and clustering analysis to represent the overall network through groups of elementary distribution systems. The methodology also considers uncertainty and makes use of a number of criteria to prioritize new facilities to be incorporated into the system, taking into account financial constraints. For each new facility the system determines costs and corresponding benefits. This dissertation complements such model through the introduction and analysis of various quality of supply indices, helping the planner engineer to assess all benefits related to a given investment plan. The developed computational system is based on the results obtained for each elementary distribution system. It then evaluates global and regional technical indices, that allows for important managerial analysis concerning the system expansion. The computational system also evaluates the average long range incremental and the marginal costs associated with a specific investment plan, thus taking into account new facilities concerning substations and network feeders. A case study considering a fictitious distribution company and its overall system illustrates the tools developed, showing all potential studies and decision making capabilities which were made available during this research work.

Este presente trabalho visa fornecer novas ferramentas para a análise de índices de qualidade no âmbito do planejamento agregado de investimentos em sistemas de distribuição primária. O planejamento agregado de investimentos representa uma metodologia de previsão de investimentos em Sistemas de Distribuição de uma empresa, que utiliza a análise estatística e classificação de rede em famílias para representação da rede, considera aspectos de incertezas e critérios de priorização de obras, em função dos recursos disponíveis, e informa o tipo de obra a ser realizada e o montante de investimentos necessário por tipo de obra. Este trabalho procura complementar o modelo através da análise técnica dos índices de qualidade, quantificando-se os benefícios obtidos ao longo do horizonte de estudo, através de um sistema computacional que, baseado nos resultados dos representantes dos grupos de redes, determina os índices técnicos para tais representantes, para as regionais definidas e para todo o sistema, possibilitando a análise gerencial da evolução da rede elétrica. Também foi desenvolvida ferramenta que permite a determinação do Custo Incremental Médio de Longo Prazo (CIMLP) e do Custo Marginal do sistema de média tensão, englobando subestações de distribuição e circuitos primários do sistema elétrico. O trabalho é finalizado com o estudo de um caso de planejamento de uma área de concessão de uma empresa fictícia, onde são executados os processamentos e analisados os resultados técnicos, de custos e de qualidade. / This work aims at developing new tools for the analysis of quality of supply indices regarding long term investment planning of primary electric power distribution systems. Investment planning in aggregated basis represents a established methodology for estimating future investments in all distribution systems of a utility, by using statistic and clustering analysis to represent the overall network through groups of elementary distribution systems. The methodology also considers uncertainty and makes use of a number of criteria to prioritize new facilities to be incorporated into the system, taking into account financial constraints. For each new facility the system determines costs and corresponding benefits. This dissertation complements such model through the introduction and analysis of various quality of supply indices, helping the planner engineer to assess all benefits related to a given investment plan. The developed computational system is based on the results obtained for each elementary distribution system. It then evaluates global and regional technical indices, that allows for important managerial analysis concerning the system expansion. The computational system also evaluates the average long range incremental and the marginal costs associated with a specific investment plan, thus taking into account new facilities concerning substations and network feeders. A case study considering a fictitious distribution company and its overall system illustrates the tools developed, showing all potential studies and decision making capabilities which were made available during this research work.

鑒於轉投資收益占公司收益比重日形增加，且紡織業為一成熟期產業 ，頻頻地從事於轉投資活動，遂引起本研究的研究動機。 本研究的目 的是希望能對紡織業上市公司轉投資活動作一全面瞭解，並試圖找出會系 統化地影響轉投資活動的一些公司特質。 本研究結果發現公司屬於第 一類上市公司或第二類上市公司、公司屬於前兩百大企業集團或不屬於集 團、公司負債比率的高低、總經理持股比率的高低、公司近年來本業是否 曾虧損，都是會系統化影響公司轉投資活動的因子。 另外，從事轉投 資的動機方面最主要是因本業衰退，再者是希望能進入高報酬行業；而轉 投資又分三大類：垂直整合型、相關多角化型、非相關多角化型，從事這 三類型的轉投資其在實務上的考量因素都大致與理論所言符合；而在垂直 整合型轉投資與相關多角化型轉投資上，公司傾向於持有較高的股份。在 非相關多角化上，多數的公司都想跨入營建業、投資業、證券業、商銀、 創業投資業、資訊電子業等。至於選擇轉投資的對象時，首重被投資公司 的產品的市場可行性分析與投資的回收期間，而在事後的績效評估上，則 重投資報酬率與被投資公司的成長潛力；又當被投資公司獲利情形大好或 大壞時，或被投資公司的股票將要上市或上櫃時，投資公司都可能突然大 幅的增加或減少持股。

Submitted by Thaís Rey Grandizoli (thais.rey@gmail.com) on 2018-10-05T15:09:27Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Trabalho de Conclusão (Versao para Depósito Final) (Thais Rey Grandizoli).pdf: 1409577 bytes, checksum: 6e29d3c69a1070cb0c09e7bdfb117502 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Thais Oliveira (thais.oliveira@fgv.br) on 2018-10-10T19:10:05Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Trabalho de Conclusão (Versao para Depósito Final) (Thais Rey Grandizoli).pdf: 1409577 bytes, checksum: 6e29d3c69a1070cb0c09e7bdfb117502 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzane Guimarães (suzane.guimaraes@fgv.br) on 2018-10-11T12:46:25Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Trabalho de Conclusão (Versao para Depósito Final) (Thais Rey Grandizoli).pdf: 1409577 bytes, checksum: 6e29d3c69a1070cb0c09e7bdfb117502 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-10-11T12:46:25Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Trabalho de Conclusão (Versao para Depósito Final) (Thais Rey Grandizoli).pdf: 1409577 bytes, checksum: 6e29d3c69a1070cb0c09e7bdfb117502 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-08-22 / A presente dissertação de mestrado tem por objetivo abordar o tema da gestão de contratos de parcerias de investimento – concessões e parcerias público-privadas –, especificamente para retratar o ambiente atual envolvendo o gerenciamento desses contratos pela administração pública. Para evitar inferências genéticas e oriundas de percepções decorrentes da experiência prática, própria de quem atua no setor, optei por adotar o método de estudo de caso para identificar se essas percepções se comprovariam a partir de uma pesquisa empírica. Para tanto, elegi a PPP da Linha 4, cuja análise dos processos de gestão instaurados ao longo da execução desse contrato revelou questões interessantes e muito úteis para traçar um diagnóstico do tema e, a partir disso, contribuir – assim se espera – para reflexões visando à melhoria do ambiente de execução de negócios entre o setor público e o setor privado, cujas percepções de risco são especialmente mais sensíveis quando se trata da celebração de parcerias de investimento. / The purpose of this Master's thesis is to discuss the management of long-term investment contracts – concessions and public-private partnerships – specifically to evidence the current environment involving the management of these contracts by the Public Administration. To avoid genetic inferences, it was decided to adopt the case study method to identify relevant questions on the subject. For this purpose, the PPP of Line 4 was chosen, which empirical analysis of the administrative procedures established during the execution of this contract showed interesting and very useful questions to draw a diagnosis of this work`s subject and also contribute to reflections aimed at improving the business environment between the public and the private sector, where perceptions of risk are especially more sensitive when compared to other public businesses cases.

Au-delà de la capacité des systèmes à faire face aux crises sanitaires, investir en prévention devrait se lire « investir pour la santé » dans la perspective plus large d’une amélioration du bien-être des populations. Plusieurs études démontrent que les programmes de santé publique contribuent à prévenir la mortalité, améliorent la qualité de vie et réduisent les coûts des soins de santé sur le court et long terme (Dyakova et al. 2017 ; Masters et al. 2017). Pourtant, le portrait des dépenses de santé dans la plupart des pays suggère un sous-financement inquiétant des dépenses préventives en santé. Ce mémoire propose un cadre formel pour démystifier les dynamiques politiques et financières sous-jacentes à la prise de décision des gouvernements en place en matière d’investissement en santé préventive. Plus précisément, il est question d’analyser les variations des dépenses en santé publique dans les provinces canadiennes de 1975 à 2018. En s’intéressant à l’organisation du système de santé dans son ensemble et au gré des réformes politiques et structurelles des provinces, les résultats de l’analyse qualitative montrent que l’émergence du nouveau management public (NMP) dans les années 1990 a globalement contribué à la diminution accordée à la prévention. L’analyse quantitative quant à elle, énonce les éléments conjoncturels et structurels financiers qui participent à la variation des dépenses en santé publique. En considérant le financement en santé publique comme un investissement à long terme, il a été démontré que les dépenses préventives ne sont pas aussi largement soutenues et constituent des investissements à long terme discrets avec peu d’appuis dans la société. Cela implique, du point de vue financier, que ce type de dépenses est plus propice aux coupures budgétaires, surtout en période de récession et de crise économique. / Beyond the capacity of systems to deal with health crises, investing in prevention should read “investing for health” in the broader perspective of improving the well-being of populations. Several studies demonstrate that public health programs help prevent mortality, improve quality of life and reduce health care costs in the short and long term (Dyakova et al. 2017; Masters et al. 2017). However, the portrait of health expenditure in most countries suggests a worrying underfunding of preventive health expenditure. This thesis proposes a formal framework to demystify the political and financial dynamics underlying the decision-making of governments in place in terms of investment in public health. More specifically, we analyze the variations in public health expenditure in the Canadian provinces from 1975 to 2018. By focusing on the organization of the health system as a whole, according to political and structural reforms over time, the results of the qualitative analysis show that the emergence of new public management (NPM) in the early 1990 contributed overall to the reduction granted to prevention. The quantitative analysis, for its part, sets out the economic and structural financial elements that contribute to the variation in public health expenditure. Viewing public health funding as a long-term investment, it has been shown that preventive spending is not as widely supported and is a discrete long-term investment with little support in society. This implies, from a financial point of view, that this type of spending is more prone to budget cuts, especially in times of recession and economic crisis.