Aim Despite the country's explicit political goal to establish equivalent living conditions across Germany, significant inequality continues to exist. We argue that premature mortality is an excellent proxy variable for testing the claim of equivalent living conditions since the root causes of premature death are socioeconomic. Subject and methods We analyse variation in premature mortality across Germany's 402 districts and cities in 2014. Results Premature mortality spatially clusters among geographically contiguous and proximate districts/cities and is higher in more urban places as well as in districts/cities located further north and in former East Germany. We demonstrate that, first, socioeconomic factors account for 62% of the cross-sectional variation in years of potential life lost and 70% of the variation in the premature mortality rate. Second, we show that these socioeconomic factors either entirely or almost fully eliminate the systematic spatial patterns that exist in premature mortality. Conclusion On its own, fiscal redistribution, the centrepiece of how Germany aspires to establish its political goal, cannot generate equivalent living conditions in the absence of a comprehensive set of economic and social policies at all levels of political administration, tackling the disparities in socioeconomic factors that collectively result in highly unequal living conditions.

Trata-se de um estudo transversal descritivo e ecológico, com o objetivo de investigar a relação dos determinantes sociais da saúde com os coeficientes de mortalidade prematura por doenças crônicas não transmissíveis no município de Ribeirão Preto, no período de 2010 a 2014. Participaram do estudo indivíduos que foram a óbito prematuro com idade entre 30 a 69 anos tendo como causa básica as doenças crônicas não transmissíveis, residentes na zona urbana do município e independentemente do local de óbito. O estudo foi aprovado pelo Comitê de Ética e Pesquisa. Os dados foram obtidos no Departamento de Vigilância Epidemiológica da Secretaria Municipal da Saúde de Ribeirão Preto e no site da Fundação Seade e Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. O estudo foi realizado de março de 2015 a agosto de 2018. Para análise, na fase exploratória utilizou-se estatística descritiva, padronização de coeficientes de mortalidade prematura e anos potenciais de vida perdidos. Em relação a análise espacial, os casos de óbitos prematuros foram geocodificados através do QGIS 2.18. Aplicou-se a técnica de varredura no software SATScan 9.6, visando detectar aglomerados no espaço de alto e baixo risco relativo por setor censitário. A padronização dos coeficientes de mortalidade prematura foi realizada por setor censitário e o Índice de Moran local univariado e bivariado no software GeoDa 1.12. Os mapas temáticos dos coeficientes de mortalidade prematura foram elaborados por setor censitário e da técnica de varredura por meio do software QGIS 2.18. De 2010 a 2014, ocorreram 4.762 óbitos prematuros por DCNT no município de Ribeirão Preto. As doenças cardiovasculares e neoplasias apresentaram os maiores coeficientes de mortalidade prematura para ambos os sexos. O sexo masculino apresentou maiores coeficientes para doenças cardiovasculares e o sexo feminino para as neoplasias. Em relação aos anos potenciais de vida perdidos, as neoplasias apresentaram os maiores valores. Ao relacionar anos potencias de vida perdidos por sexo, se mantém o mesmo padrão dos coeficientes de mortalidade prematura. A análise de varredura mostrou que os aglomerados de risco estavam nas áreas do Distrito de Saúde Central, Norte e Oeste. As áreas de proteção foram identificadas no Distrito de Saúde Leste e Sul. Houve correlação espacial positiva para os determinantes sociais de saúde relacionados a renda, sexo e raça com os coeficientes de mortalidade prematura, visto que os homens são mais vulneráveis, assim como, os negros e brancos. As pessoas com baixa renda apresentaram uma maior mortalidade prematura pelas doenças crônicas investigadas. Os resultados confirmaram que a posição socioeconômica a partir de variáveis de renda, sexo, escolaridade e raça está relacionada com a mortalidade prematura. Esses resultados podem subsidiar a implementação de políticas públicas de saúde e sociais, em especial, para os grupos mais vulneráveis diminuindo o impacto dos fatores de risco e a carga destas doenças no município de Ribeirão Preto / This is a descriptive and ecological cross-sectional study to investigate the relationship between the social determinants of health and the coefficients of premature mortality due to chronic non-transmissible diseases in the municipality of Ribeirão Preto, from 2010 to 2014. Participated in the study individuals who died prematurely, aged between 30 and 69 years, with chronic non-transmissible diseases residing in the urban area of the municipality and regardless of the place of death as the basic cause. The study was approved by the Ethics and Research Committee. The data were obtained from the Department of Epidemiological Surveillance of the Municipal Health Department of Ribeirão Preto and the website of the Seade Foundation and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. The study was conducted from March 2015 to August 2018. For the analysis, at the exploratory phase was used descriptive statistics, standardization of coefficients of premature mortality and potential years of life lost. In relation to the spatial analysis, the cases of premature death were geocoded through QGIS 2.18. The scanning technique was applied in the software SATScan 9.6, aiming to detect clusters in the space of high and low relative risk by census sector. The standardization of the coefficients of premature mortality was performed by census tract and the univariate and bivariate local Moran Index in GeoDa software 1.12. The thematic maps of the coefficients of premature mortality were elaborated by census sector and the scanning technique through the software QGIS 2.18. From 2010 to 2014, there were 4,762 premature deaths by CNCD in the city of Ribeirão Preto. Cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms presented the highest coefficients of premature mortality for both sexes. Males presented higher coefficients for cardiovascular diseases and females for neoplasms. In relation to the potential years of life lost, the neoplasms had the highest values. By relating years of life potencies lost by sex, the same pattern of premature mortality coefficients is maintained. The scanning analysis showed that clusters of risk were located in the areas of the Central, North and West Health District. Protection areas were identified in the Eastern and Southern Health District. There was a positive spatial correlation for the social determinants of health related to income, sex and race with the coefficients of premature mortality, since men are more vulnerable, as are the black and white. People with low income presented higher premature mortality due to the chronic diseases investigated. The results confirmed that socioeconomic status based on income, sex, schooling and race variables are related to premature mortality. These results may support the implementation of public health and social policies, especially for the most vulnerable groups, reducing the impact of risk factors and the burden of these diseases in the city of Ribeirão Preto

The relative contributions of PM2.5 and ozone precursor emissions to air pollution-related premature mortality modulated by climate change are estimated for the U.S. using sensitivities of air pollutants to precursor emissions and health outcomes for 2001 and 2050. Result suggests that states with high emission rates and significant premature mortality increases induced by PM2.5 will substantially benefit in the future from SO2, anthropogenic NOX and NH3 emissions reductions while states with premature mortality increases induced by O3 will benefit mainly from anthropogenic NOX emissions reduction. Much of the increase in premature mortality expected from climate changeinduced pollutant increases can be offset by targeting a specific precursor emission in most states based on the modeling approach followed here.

INTRODUCTION: Epidemiological transition theory, first postulated by Omran in 1971, provides a useful framework for understanding cause-specific mortality changes and may contribute usefully to predictions about cause-specific mortality. However, understandings of mortality transitions and associated epidemiological changes remain poorly defined for public health practitioners due to lack of evidence from low- and middle-income countries. Therefore, understanding of the concept and development of epidemiological transition theory as well as population burden of premature mortality attributable to risk factors is needed. OBJECTIVES: This thesis aims to understand how epidemiological transition theory has been applied in different contexts, using available evidence on mortality transitions from high, middle- and low- income countries, as well as the contribution of risk factors to mortality transitions, particularly for premature mortality. METHODS: A Medline literature search from 1971 to 2013 was conducted to synthesise published evidence on mortality transition (paper I). A descriptive analysis of trends in cause of death using INDEPTH data was conducted, focusing on specific causes of death in 12 INDEPTH sites in Africa and Asia, using the INDEPTH 2013 standard population structure for appropriate comparisons across sites (paper II). A retrospective dynamic cohort database was constructed from Swedish population registers for the age range 30-69 years during 1991-2006, to measure reductions in premature non-communicable disease mortality using a life table method (paper III). Prospective cohort data from Västerbotten Intervention Programme from 1990 to 2006 were used to measure the magnitude of premature non-communicable disease mortality reductions associated with risk factor changes for each period of time (paper IV). FINDINGS: There were changes in emphasis in research on epidemiological transition over the four decades from 1971 to 2013, from cause of death to wide-ranging aspects of the determinants of mortality with increasing research interests in low-and middle-income countries, with some unconsidered aspects of social determinants contributing to deviations from classic theoretical pathways. Mortality rates declined in most sites, with the annual reductions in premature adult mortality varied across INDEPTH sites, Sweden, which now is at late stage of epidemiological transition stage, achieved a 25% reduction in premature mortality during 1991-2006. Overall downward trends in risk factors have helped to reduce premature mortality in the population of Västerbotten County, but some benefits were offset by other increasing risks. The largest mortality changes accrued from reductions in smoking, hypertension and hypercholesterolaemia. CONCLUSIONS: This thesis established patterns of current epidemiological transition in high, middle-and low-income countries (Asia and Africa), where the theory fits the transition patterns in some countries, but with some needs for further adjustments in other settings, as well as deviations from the classical ET theory in the last four decades. It highlights the need to identify the burden of mortality and morbidity, particularly for reducing mortality occurring before the age of 70 years and its attribution to risk factors, which are a major public health challenge. This informs shifting of public health priorities and resources towards prevention and control of chronic non-communicable disease risk factors.

Health impact assessments for fine particulate matter (PM2.5) often rely on simulated concentrations generated from air quality models. However, at the global level, these models often run at coarse resolutions, resulting in underestimates of peak concentrations in populated areas. This study aims to quantitatively examine the influence of model resolution on the estimates of mortality attributable to PM2.5 and its species in the USA. We use GEOS-Chem, a global 3-D model of atmospheric composition, to simulate the 2008 annual average concentrations of PM2.5 and its six species over North America. The model was run at a fine resolution of 0.5 × 0.66° and a coarse resolution of 2 × 2.5°, and mortality was calculated using output at the two resolutions. Using the fine-modeled concentrations, we estimate that 142,000 PM2.5-related deaths occurred in the USA in 2008, and the coarse resolution produces a national mortality estimate that is 8 % lower than the fine-model estimate. Our spatial analysis of mortality shows that coarse resolutions tend to substantially underestimate mortality in large urban centers. We also re-grid the fine-modeled concentrations to several coarser resolutions and repeat mortality calculation at these resolutions. We found that model resolution tends to have the greatest influence on mortality estimates associated with primary species and the least impact on dust-related mortality. Our findings provide evidence of possible biases in quantitative PM2.5 health impact assessments in applications of global atmospheric models at coarse spatial resolutions.

<p>Предмет истраживања докторске дисертације јесте разлика у смртности по полу<br />у периоду 1950-2012. година,&nbsp; са посебним освртом на&nbsp; факторе који условљавају<br />разлику. Одређивање њиховог утицаја на основу модела који су примењивани у<br />литератури и сагледавање последица недовољног напретка у продужењу&nbsp;&nbsp; чекиваног трајања живота&nbsp; код оба пола (нарочито код мушкараца),&nbsp; основни је&nbsp; задатак докторске дисертације.</p><p>Резултати истраживања су показали да кретање разлике у смртности по полу у Србији не одговара ни западноевропском ни источноевропском моделу. Разлика у очекиваном трајању живота при&nbsp; живорођењу мушкараца и жена је последњих 20 година стабилна и у европским оквирима умерено ниска (износи око пет година). Анализа морталитета по полу показала је да су вредности специфичних стопа смртности међу највишима у Европи и да су посебно средовечни мушкарци у Србији вулнерабилна категорија становништва.&nbsp; Резултати су показали да се разлике у смртности&nbsp; по полу смањују&nbsp; са старошћу, одражавајући чињеницу да&nbsp; се&nbsp; у најстаријим годинама живота утицај социо-економских фактора губи, а расте значај фактора биолошке природе.&nbsp; У раду је потврђено да су пушење и алкохолизам значајни фактори веће смртности мушког становништва у Србији. Такође је наглашено да&nbsp; постоје&nbsp;извесне тенденције у порасту конзумације дувана код жена и да се скандинавски модел понашања све више прихвата и то&nbsp; нарочито код младих. Анализа&nbsp; појединих фактора смртности на разлику у очекиваном трајању живота по полу у Србији, показала је да се пушење издваја као појединачно најзначајнији фактор више смртности мушкараца. Елиминисањем пушења постиже се значајна промена у смртности мушкараца и жена, а разлика у очекиваном трајању живота новорођених би тада износила свега половину тренутне. У Србији су стопе&nbsp; смртности код становништва које је у браку значајно ниже него код оних ван брака. То се нарочито односи на мушкарце, који просечно у браку имају за 6-7 година дужи животни век. На основу разлике у стопама смртности по полу и образовању може се констатовати да ниво образовања има већи значај у&nbsp; морталитету жена, односно да се са већим степеном образовања и разлика у смртности по полу повећава на штету мушкараца.&nbsp; Истраживање преране смртности становништва Србије услед водећих узрока смрти&nbsp; показало је да мушкарци и жене имају различит модел морталитета. Хипотеза&nbsp; да&nbsp; је&nbsp; канцер&nbsp; значајнији&nbsp; узрок&nbsp; превремене&nbsp; смрти&nbsp; код&nbsp; жена&nbsp; него код мушкараца у Србији, потврђена је у раду.</p><p>Различита смртност мушкараца и жена је природни и&nbsp; друштвени феномен од великог значаја, јер фокусира активности различитих државних структура. Анализа стања и разумевање фактора који условљавају&nbsp; различиту смртност по полу, нуди могућност превентивног деловања, што би могло довести до боље организације здравствених служби.&nbsp; Истраживање&nbsp; у дисертацији је показало&nbsp; какви су и колики губици&nbsp; за друштво услед преране смртности мушкараца и жена у Србији. Анализа морталитетне ситуације у последњих 60 година, са издвајањем разлике у смртности по полу и фактора који је условљавају, допринеће ће истраживању ове тематике код нас.</p> / <p>Predmet istraživanja doktorske disertacije jeste razlika u smrtnosti po polu<br />u periodu 1950-2012. godina,&nbsp; sa posebnim osvrtom na&nbsp; faktore koji uslovljavaju<br />razliku. Određivanje njihovog uticaja na osnovu modela koji su primenjivani u<br />literaturi i sagledavanje posledica nedovoljnog napretka u produženju&nbsp;&nbsp; čekivanog trajanja života&nbsp; kod oba pola (naročito kod muškaraca),&nbsp; osnovni je&nbsp; zadatak doktorske disertacije.</p><p>Rezultati istraživanja su pokazali da kretanje razlike u smrtnosti po polu u Srbiji ne odgovara ni zapadnoevropskom ni istočnoevropskom modelu. Razlika u očekivanom trajanju života pri&nbsp; živorođenju muškaraca i žena je poslednjih 20 godina stabilna i u evropskim okvirima umereno niska (iznosi oko pet godina). Analiza mortaliteta po polu pokazala je da su vrednosti specifičnih stopa smrtnosti među najvišima u Evropi i da su posebno sredovečni muškarci u Srbiji vulnerabilna kategorija stanovništva.&nbsp; Rezultati su pokazali da se razlike u smrtnosti&nbsp; po polu smanjuju&nbsp; sa starošću, odražavajući činjenicu da&nbsp; se&nbsp; u najstarijim godinama života uticaj socio-ekonomskih faktora gubi, a raste značaj faktora biološke prirode.&nbsp; U radu je potvrđeno da su pušenje i alkoholizam značajni faktori veće smrtnosti muškog stanovništva u Srbiji. Takođe je naglašeno da&nbsp; postoje&nbsp;izvesne tendencije u porastu konzumacije duvana kod žena i da se skandinavski model ponašanja sve više prihvata i to&nbsp; naročito kod mladih. Analiza&nbsp; pojedinih faktora smrtnosti na razliku u očekivanom trajanju života po polu u Srbiji, pokazala je da se pušenje izdvaja kao pojedinačno najznačajniji faktor više smrtnosti muškaraca. Eliminisanjem pušenja postiže se značajna promena u smrtnosti muškaraca i žena, a razlika u očekivanom trajanju života novorođenih bi tada iznosila svega polovinu trenutne. U Srbiji su stope&nbsp; smrtnosti kod stanovništva koje je u braku značajno niže nego kod onih van braka. To se naročito odnosi na muškarce, koji prosečno u braku imaju za 6-7 godina duži životni vek. Na osnovu razlike u stopama smrtnosti po polu i obrazovanju može se konstatovati da nivo obrazovanja ima veći značaj u&nbsp; mortalitetu žena, odnosno da se sa većim stepenom obrazovanja i razlika u smrtnosti po polu povećava na štetu muškaraca.&nbsp; Istraživanje prerane smrtnosti stanovništva Srbije usled vodećih uzroka smrti&nbsp; pokazalo je da muškarci i žene imaju različit model mortaliteta. Hipoteza&nbsp; da&nbsp; je&nbsp; kancer&nbsp; značajniji&nbsp; uzrok&nbsp; prevremene&nbsp; smrti&nbsp; kod&nbsp; žena&nbsp; nego kod muškaraca u Srbiji, potvrđena je u radu.</p><p>Različita smrtnost muškaraca i žena je prirodni i&nbsp; društveni fenomen od velikog značaja, jer fokusira aktivnosti različitih državnih struktura. Analiza stanja i razumevanje faktora koji uslovljavaju&nbsp; različitu smrtnost po polu, nudi mogućnost preventivnog delovanja, što bi moglo dovesti do bolje organizacije zdravstvenih službi.&nbsp; Istraživanje&nbsp; u disertaciji je pokazalo&nbsp; kakvi su i koliki gubici&nbsp; za društvo usled prerane smrtnosti muškaraca i žena u Srbiji. Analiza mortalitetne situacije u poslednjih 60 godina, sa izdvajanjem razlike u smrtnosti po polu i faktora koji je uslovljavaju, doprineće će istraživanju ove tematike kod nas.</p> / <p>The research topic of the doctoral dissertation is the&nbsp; difference in mortality by sex in the period 1950-2012, with the particular emphasis on the factors that influence the difference. The main task of the doctoral dissertation is to determine their impact based on the models applied in relevant literature and to consider the consequences of the lack of progress in extending life expectancy for both sexes (especially in men).</p><p>The research results show that the trends in difference in mortality by sex in Serbiacorrespond to neither the Western European nor the&nbsp; Eastern European model. The difference in life expectancy at birth for men and women has been stable over the last 20 years and moderately low in terms of the European framework (approximately five years). The analysis of mortality by sex has shown that the values of the specific mortality rates are among the highest in Europe and that the middle-aged men in Serbia in particular are vulnerable categories of the population. The results has shown that difference in mortality by sex decreases with age, reflecting the fact that in the oldest age the impact of socio-economic factors declines and the importance of factors of biological nature grows. The paper confirms that smoking and alcoholism are significant factors of increased mortality of the male population in Serbia. It also emphasises that there are certain tendencies in increasing consumption of tobacco among women and that the Scandinavian model of behaviour has been increasingly accepted, particularly among young people. The analysis of certain mortality factors that influence the difference in life expectancy by sex in Serbia has shown that smoking stands out as the single most important factor in more deaths in men. By eliminating smoking a significant change in mortality between men and women is achieved, and the difference in life expectancy for the newborn would then be only half of the current one. In Serbia, the mortality rate of the married population is significantly lower than of the unmarried population, which particularly relates to married men, who live 6-7 years longer on average. Based on the differences in mortality rates by sex and education, it can be concluded that the level of education has a greater significance in the mortality of women, i.e. that with higher level of education the difference in mortality by sex increases at the expense of men. The study of premature mortality of Serbian population due to the leading causes of death has shown that men and women have a different model of mortality. The paper confirms the hypothesis that cancer is a more significant cause of premature death in women than in men in Serbia.</p><p>Different mortality between men and women is a natural and social phenomenon of great importance, because it focuses the activities of various state structures. The analysis of the situation and understanding of the different factors that influence mortality by sex, offers the possibility of preventive action, which could lead to better organisation of health services. The research in the dissertation has shown the nature and extent to which the society loses due to premature mortality of men and women in Serbia. The analysis of the mortality situation in the last 60 years, separating the differences in mortality by sex and the factors that are causing them will considerably contribute to researching this issue in our country.</p>

Ainda que limitadas enquanto expressão dos eventos ligados à saúde e apesar das deficiências em relação à cobertura e à qualidade dos dados, as estatísticas de mortalidade constituem um dos mais importantes subsídios para o planejamento e avaliação dos serviços de saúde. Tradicionalmente, a mortalidade de uma determinada população tem sido aferida por meio das taxas brutas e específicas de mortalidade. Porém, esses índices consideram apenas a magnitude das causas de óbito, sem qualificar o peso resultante dessas mortes para a sociedade. Neste sentido, tem-se enfatizado cada vez mais a importância da mortalidade prematura enquanto expressão social do valor da morte, pois esta, quando ocorre numa idade de altas criatividade e produtividade não só afeta o indivíduo e o grupo social que convive diretamente com ele, mas a sociedade como um todo, que é privada do seu potencial econômico e intelectual (REICHENHEIM; WERNECK, 1994). \"O indicador Anos Potenciais de Vida Perdidos (APVP), ao combinar a magnitude das mortes com a idade em que ocorreram os óbitos, qualifica essas mortes\" (KERR-PONTES; ROUQUAYROL, 1999 apud SAUER; WAGNER, 2003, p. 1520). Este estudo pretendeu avaliar a evolução dos APVPs nos municípios e regionais de saúde do Estado de São Paulo, no período de 2003 a 2013, para a população total. Pretendeu, também, analisar a evolução retrospectiva das 15 causas de óbito com as maiores taxas de APVP em 2013, para a população total do Estado de São Paulo. Para tanto, foi elaborada uma base de dados a partir dos óbitos de residentes do Estado de São Paulo ocorridos no período de 2003 a 2013 e processados pelo SIM (Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade), sendo as causas de morte classificadas de acordo com a Décima Revisão da Classificação Internacional de Doenças (CID 10). O cálculo dos APVPs foi realizado com base numa proposta feita por Romeder e McWhinnie (1988) e, após elaborados os dados, foram confeccionados cartogramas utilizando o programa Tabwin para visualização da evolução dos APVPs nas regionais de saúde do Estado. Foram construídos gráficos de linha para a observação da evolução das 15 causas de óbito com as maiores taxas de APVP de 2003 a 2013. Posteriormente, foram analisadas as Taxa de Mortalidade Geral (TMG), Taxa de Mortalidade Infantil (TMI) e Taxa de Mortalidade Materna (TMM) para os anos de 7 2003 a 2013 para o Estado de São Paulo. E, finalmente, foram avaliados: as dimensões escolaridade, longevidade e riqueza do Índice Paulista de Responsabilidade Social (IPRS) em cada um de seus grupos; frequência absoluta e relativa do IPRS em cada um de seus grupos; relação do IPRS segundo Redes Regionais de Atenção à Saúde (RRAS); relação IPRS segundo Grupos Populacionais; TAPVP por grupos de IPRS; TAPVP por Grupos Populacionais; TAPVP por RRAS; IPRS na sua dimensão Riqueza por TAPVP; IPRS na sua dimensão Longevidade por TAPVP; IPRS na sua dimensão Escolaridade por TAPVP; Correlação entre as dimensões do IPRS e TAPVP. Todas estas avaliações são válidas para o Estado de São Paulo para o ano de 2012 e foram obtidas utilizando-se o aplicativo Stata 9.0. A Taxa de Mortalidade Geral (TMG) para o Estado de São Paulo para o período de 2003 a 2013 em comparação com a do Brasil mostrou-se desfavorável, o mesmo acontecendo com a Taxa de Mortalidade Infantil (TMI), cujo predomínio, no Estado, foi do componente Pós-Neonatal. Já a Taxa de Mortalidade Materna (TMM) demonstrou boa assistência ao pré-natal, parto e puerpério no Estado no período citado. Observando-se a evolução das TAPVP nos cartogramas do Estado de São Paulo no período de 2003 a 2013 as RRAS onde as TAPVP foram maiores foram: 6, 7, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13 e 17. Das quinze maiores causas de óbito segundo TAPVP para o Estado no período, nove são passíveis de prevenção na atenção primária. Citou-se ainda o subregistro e a tripla carga de doenças. A maioria dos 645 municípios do Estado de São Paulo, no ano de 2012 apresentaram um IPRS de grupo 4. Houve 95% de probabilidade de que a maior TAPVP ocorreu para o IPRS 4 com um IC de 17.325,04 a 18.424,20. O Teste de Anova, com 4 gl mostrou diferença significativa (p<0,05) na TAPVP por grupos de IPRS. Com 5 graus de liberdade, o Teste de Kruskal-Wallis foi significativo (p<0,05) indicando que houve diferença entre os Grupos Populacionais quanto à TAPVP. Com 16 graus de liberdade, o Teste de Kruskal-Wallis foi significativo (p<0,05) indicando que existiu diferença entre as RRAS quanto às TAPVP. À medida que aumentou a riqueza do IPRS, diminuiu, ainda que discretamente, a TAPVP. Longevidade e TAPVP mantiveram-se estáveis. Conforme aumentou a escolaridade, aumentou a TAPVP. Por existir uma correlação positiva entre riqueza e longevidade e escolaridade, à medida que aumentou a riqueza, aumentaram a longevidade e escolaridade. Com relação a TAPVP e riqueza e longevidade, o coeficiente de correlação foi negativo, significando que à medida que aumentaram a riqueza e 8 longevidade, diminuiu a TAPVP. Porém, com relação à escolaridade, o coeficiente de correlação entre o mesmo e a TAPVP foi positivo, indicando que à medida que aumentou a escolaridade, aumentou a TAPVP. Por fim, essa dissertação poderia ser apresentada às autoridades de saúde do Estado como um projeto para redução da mortalidade prematura, com foco em melhoria da educação básica, instalação de mais serviços de saúde de qualidade e adequação dos serviços de segurança pública. / Although limited as an expression of health-related events and despite problems concerning the coverage and quality of available data, mortality estimates are among the most important foundations for the planning and evaluation of health services. Traditionally, mortality has been estimated according to the gross and specific mortality rates in a given population. However, these indicators consider the impact of death causes alone, without qualifying the burden resulting from deaths to society. The importance of premature mortality as a social expression of the burden of death has therefore received increasing attention, as it occurs at an age range of high creativity and productivity and affects not only the individual and his direct social group, but society as a whole, whose economic and intellectual potential is affected (REICHENHEIM; WERNECK, 1994). The estimate of potential years of life lost (PYLL) provides a more detailed assessment of mortality by combining death rates and the age when death occurs (KERR-PONTES; ROUQUAYROL, 1999 apud SAUER; WAGNER, 2003, p. 1520). Our study was aimed at assessing the evolution of PYLL rates in the total population of cities and health districts in the State of São Paulo, Brazil, between 2003 and 2013. We also assessed the retrospective evolution of the 15 death causes with the greatest PYLL rates in 2013 for the total population of the State of São Paulo. In order to achieve this, we created a database with information on deaths occurred in the state between 2003 and 2013 which were processed by the Mortality Information System (MIS), with death causes classified according to the 10th revision of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10). PYLL rates were calculated according to the method proposed by Romeder and McWhinnie (1988) and data charts 9 were created in TabWin to display the evolution of PYLL rates in the health districts of the state. Line graphs were created to display the evolution of the 15 death causes with the highest PYLL rates between 2003 and 2013. We further assessed the general mortality rate (GMR), child mortality rates (CMR), and mother mortality rates (MMR). Finally, we assessed the education, longevity, and wealth dimensions of the São Paulo Index of Social Responsibility (SPISR) in each of its groups; absolute and relative frequency of the SPISR in each of its groups; relationship of the SPISR according to the Regional Health Care Networks (RHCN); SPISR relationship according to population groups; PYLL rates by SPISR group; PYLL rates by population groups; PYLL rates by RHCN; SPISR dimension \'wealth\' by PYLL rates; SPISR dimension \'longevity\' by PYLL rates; SPISR dimension \'education\' by PYLL rates; and correlations between SPISR dimensions and PYLL rates. All the analyses are valid for the State of São Paulo in the year of 2012 and were made using the Stata 9.0 software. The GMR in the State of São Paulo for the period of 2003-2013 was worse compared to Brazil, and so was the CMR, with a predominance of the post-neonatal component in the State. The MMR indicated the availability of adequate prenatal, delivery, and postpartum assistance in the State during the period. The data charts displaying the evolution of PYLL rates in the State of São Paulo show that the RHCNs with the highest PYLL rates were 6, 7, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, and 17. From the main 15 death causes according to PYLL rates in the period, 9 can be prevented in primary care. Under-recording and the triple load of diseases were also detected. The SPISR of most of the 645 municipalities in the State of São Paulo in the year 2012 was 4. The probability that the highest PYLL rate was associated with a SPISR of 4 was 95%, with a confidence interval between 17325.04 and 18424.20. An ANOVA with 4 degrees of freedom showed significant differences (p<0.05) in PYLL rates by SPISR group. With 5 degrees of freedom, the test of Kruskal-Wallis provided significant results (p<0.05), indicating the existence of differences between population groups in respect to PYLL rates. With 16 degrees of freedom, the Kruskal-Wallis test indicated the existence of significant differences between the RHCNs in terms of PYLL rates. PYLL rates decreased, although subtly, with the increase of wealth in the SPISR. Longevity and PYLL rates remained stable. As education increased, PYLL rates also increased. Since there was a positive correlation between wealth, longevity, and education, increased wealth was associated 10 with increased longevity and education as well. Concerning the relationship between PYLL rates and wealth and longevity, we found a negative correlation coefficient, indicating that as wealth and longevity increased, PYLL rates decreased. In respect to education, however, the correlation with PYLL rates was positive, indicating that increases in education were associated with increases in PYLL rates. Finally, this dissertation could be presented to the health authorities of the State of São Paulo as a project to reduce early mortality, focused on improvements in basic education, expansion of high-quality health services, and improvements in public security

Ainda que limitadas enquanto expressão dos eventos ligados à saúde e apesar das deficiências em relação à cobertura e à qualidade dos dados, as estatísticas de mortalidade constituem um dos mais importantes subsídios para o planejamento e avaliação dos serviços de saúde. Tradicionalmente, a mortalidade de uma determinada população tem sido aferida por meio das taxas brutas e específicas de mortalidade. Porém, esses índices consideram apenas a magnitude das causas de óbito, sem qualificar o peso resultante dessas mortes para a sociedade. Neste sentido, tem-se enfatizado cada vez mais a importância da mortalidade prematura enquanto expressão social do valor da morte, pois esta, quando ocorre numa idade de altas criatividade e produtividade não só afeta o indivíduo e o grupo social que convive diretamente com ele, mas a sociedade como um todo, que é privada do seu potencial econômico e intelectual (REICHENHEIM; WERNECK, 1994). \"O indicador Anos Potenciais de Vida Perdidos (APVP), ao combinar a magnitude das mortes com a idade em que ocorreram os óbitos, qualifica essas mortes\" (KERR-PONTES; ROUQUAYROL, 1999 apud SAUER; WAGNER, 2003, p. 1520). Este estudo pretendeu avaliar a evolução dos APVPs nos municípios e regionais de saúde do Estado de São Paulo, no período de 2003 a 2013, para a população total. Pretendeu, também, analisar a evolução retrospectiva das 15 causas de óbito com as maiores taxas de APVP em 2013, para a população total do Estado de São Paulo. Para tanto, foi elaborada uma base de dados a partir dos óbitos de residentes do Estado de São Paulo ocorridos no período de 2003 a 2013 e processados pelo SIM (Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade), sendo as causas de morte classificadas de acordo com a Décima Revisão da Classificação Internacional de Doenças (CID 10). O cálculo dos APVPs foi realizado com base numa proposta feita por Romeder e McWhinnie (1988) e, após elaborados os dados, foram confeccionados cartogramas utilizando o programa Tabwin para visualização da evolução dos APVPs nas regionais de saúde do Estado. Foram construídos gráficos de linha para a observação da evolução das 15 causas de óbito com as maiores taxas de APVP de 2003 a 2013. Posteriormente, foram analisadas as Taxa de Mortalidade Geral (TMG), Taxa de Mortalidade Infantil (TMI) e Taxa de Mortalidade Materna (TMM) para os anos de 7 2003 a 2013 para o Estado de São Paulo. E, finalmente, foram avaliados: as dimensões escolaridade, longevidade e riqueza do Índice Paulista de Responsabilidade Social (IPRS) em cada um de seus grupos; frequência absoluta e relativa do IPRS em cada um de seus grupos; relação do IPRS segundo Redes Regionais de Atenção à Saúde (RRAS); relação IPRS segundo Grupos Populacionais; TAPVP por grupos de IPRS; TAPVP por Grupos Populacionais; TAPVP por RRAS; IPRS na sua dimensão Riqueza por TAPVP; IPRS na sua dimensão Longevidade por TAPVP; IPRS na sua dimensão Escolaridade por TAPVP; Correlação entre as dimensões do IPRS e TAPVP. Todas estas avaliações são válidas para o Estado de São Paulo para o ano de 2012 e foram obtidas utilizando-se o aplicativo Stata 9.0. A Taxa de Mortalidade Geral (TMG) para o Estado de São Paulo para o período de 2003 a 2013 em comparação com a do Brasil mostrou-se desfavorável, o mesmo acontecendo com a Taxa de Mortalidade Infantil (TMI), cujo predomínio, no Estado, foi do componente Pós-Neonatal. Já a Taxa de Mortalidade Materna (TMM) demonstrou boa assistência ao pré-natal, parto e puerpério no Estado no período citado. Observando-se a evolução das TAPVP nos cartogramas do Estado de São Paulo no período de 2003 a 2013 as RRAS onde as TAPVP foram maiores foram: 6, 7, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13 e 17. Das quinze maiores causas de óbito segundo TAPVP para o Estado no período, nove são passíveis de prevenção na atenção primária. Citou-se ainda o subregistro e a tripla carga de doenças. A maioria dos 645 municípios do Estado de São Paulo, no ano de 2012 apresentaram um IPRS de grupo 4. Houve 95% de probabilidade de que a maior TAPVP ocorreu para o IPRS 4 com um IC de 17.325,04 a 18.424,20. O Teste de Anova, com 4 gl mostrou diferença significativa (p<0,05) na TAPVP por grupos de IPRS. Com 5 graus de liberdade, o Teste de Kruskal-Wallis foi significativo (p<0,05) indicando que houve diferença entre os Grupos Populacionais quanto à TAPVP. Com 16 graus de liberdade, o Teste de Kruskal-Wallis foi significativo (p<0,05) indicando que existiu diferença entre as RRAS quanto às TAPVP. À medida que aumentou a riqueza do IPRS, diminuiu, ainda que discretamente, a TAPVP. Longevidade e TAPVP mantiveram-se estáveis. Conforme aumentou a escolaridade, aumentou a TAPVP. Por existir uma correlação positiva entre riqueza e longevidade e escolaridade, à medida que aumentou a riqueza, aumentaram a longevidade e escolaridade. Com relação a TAPVP e riqueza e longevidade, o coeficiente de correlação foi negativo, significando que à medida que aumentaram a riqueza e 8 longevidade, diminuiu a TAPVP. Porém, com relação à escolaridade, o coeficiente de correlação entre o mesmo e a TAPVP foi positivo, indicando que à medida que aumentou a escolaridade, aumentou a TAPVP. Por fim, essa dissertação poderia ser apresentada às autoridades de saúde do Estado como um projeto para redução da mortalidade prematura, com foco em melhoria da educação básica, instalação de mais serviços de saúde de qualidade e adequação dos serviços de segurança pública. / Although limited as an expression of health-related events and despite problems concerning the coverage and quality of available data, mortality estimates are among the most important foundations for the planning and evaluation of health services. Traditionally, mortality has been estimated according to the gross and specific mortality rates in a given population. However, these indicators consider the impact of death causes alone, without qualifying the burden resulting from deaths to society. The importance of premature mortality as a social expression of the burden of death has therefore received increasing attention, as it occurs at an age range of high creativity and productivity and affects not only the individual and his direct social group, but society as a whole, whose economic and intellectual potential is affected (REICHENHEIM; WERNECK, 1994). The estimate of potential years of life lost (PYLL) provides a more detailed assessment of mortality by combining death rates and the age when death occurs (KERR-PONTES; ROUQUAYROL, 1999 apud SAUER; WAGNER, 2003, p. 1520). Our study was aimed at assessing the evolution of PYLL rates in the total population of cities and health districts in the State of São Paulo, Brazil, between 2003 and 2013. We also assessed the retrospective evolution of the 15 death causes with the greatest PYLL rates in 2013 for the total population of the State of São Paulo. In order to achieve this, we created a database with information on deaths occurred in the state between 2003 and 2013 which were processed by the Mortality Information System (MIS), with death causes classified according to the 10th revision of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10). PYLL rates were calculated according to the method proposed by Romeder and McWhinnie (1988) and data charts 9 were created in TabWin to display the evolution of PYLL rates in the health districts of the state. Line graphs were created to display the evolution of the 15 death causes with the highest PYLL rates between 2003 and 2013. We further assessed the general mortality rate (GMR), child mortality rates (CMR), and mother mortality rates (MMR). Finally, we assessed the education, longevity, and wealth dimensions of the São Paulo Index of Social Responsibility (SPISR) in each of its groups; absolute and relative frequency of the SPISR in each of its groups; relationship of the SPISR according to the Regional Health Care Networks (RHCN); SPISR relationship according to population groups; PYLL rates by SPISR group; PYLL rates by population groups; PYLL rates by RHCN; SPISR dimension \'wealth\' by PYLL rates; SPISR dimension \'longevity\' by PYLL rates; SPISR dimension \'education\' by PYLL rates; and correlations between SPISR dimensions and PYLL rates. All the analyses are valid for the State of São Paulo in the year of 2012 and were made using the Stata 9.0 software. The GMR in the State of São Paulo for the period of 2003-2013 was worse compared to Brazil, and so was the CMR, with a predominance of the post-neonatal component in the State. The MMR indicated the availability of adequate prenatal, delivery, and postpartum assistance in the State during the period. The data charts displaying the evolution of PYLL rates in the State of São Paulo show that the RHCNs with the highest PYLL rates were 6, 7, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, and 17. From the main 15 death causes according to PYLL rates in the period, 9 can be prevented in primary care. Under-recording and the triple load of diseases were also detected. The SPISR of most of the 645 municipalities in the State of São Paulo in the year 2012 was 4. The probability that the highest PYLL rate was associated with a SPISR of 4 was 95%, with a confidence interval between 17325.04 and 18424.20. An ANOVA with 4 degrees of freedom showed significant differences (p<0.05) in PYLL rates by SPISR group. With 5 degrees of freedom, the test of Kruskal-Wallis provided significant results (p<0.05), indicating the existence of differences between population groups in respect to PYLL rates. With 16 degrees of freedom, the Kruskal-Wallis test indicated the existence of significant differences between the RHCNs in terms of PYLL rates. PYLL rates decreased, although subtly, with the increase of wealth in the SPISR. Longevity and PYLL rates remained stable. As education increased, PYLL rates also increased. Since there was a positive correlation between wealth, longevity, and education, increased wealth was associated 10 with increased longevity and education as well. Concerning the relationship between PYLL rates and wealth and longevity, we found a negative correlation coefficient, indicating that as wealth and longevity increased, PYLL rates decreased. In respect to education, however, the correlation with PYLL rates was positive, indicating that increases in education were associated with increases in PYLL rates. Finally, this dissertation could be presented to the health authorities of the State of São Paulo as a project to reduce early mortality, focused on improvements in basic education, expansion of high-quality health services, and improvements in public security