Este estudo contribui para a literatura existente de value relevance relacionada ao papel do patrimônio líquido contábil e do resultado contábil por intermédio de dados brasileiros em um contexto de reavaliação de ativos e contabilidade em moeda constante. Além disso, são efetuadas discussões a partir de resultados empíricos sobre dois importantes assuntos relacionados à informação contábil: relevância e confiabilidade. É aplicada uma metodologia de value relevance, sendo que a variável dependente é o valor de mercado da empresa e as variáveis independentes são o patrimônio líquido e o resultado. A primeira hipótese é a de que a informação contábil pelo custo histórico é menos value relevant do que a informação contábil com práticas de reavaliação de ativos imobilizados. Para o período 1996-2007, as companhias tinham a opção de reavaliar alguns ativos tangíveis de longo prazo. A participação de avaliadores externos nos processos de reavaliações no Brasil provavelmente proporciona um grau de confiabilidade sem muita imperfeição. No entanto, evidências empíricas mostram que as informações contábeis de empresas que efetuaram reavaliações de ativos não são mais value relevant em relação às empresas que não efetuaram. Análises adicionais baseadas em uma especificação de value relevance incremental mostraram que, se os processos de reavaliação não tivessem ocorrido, então a value relevance seria praticamente a mesma para estas empresas. Em outras palavras, a reserva de reavaliação não foi value relevant, apesar de provavelmente ser confiável. Uma explicação possível para esse resultado é uma falta de relevância para as práticas de reavaliação de ativos observadas. A segunda hipótese é a de que a informação contábil pelo custo histórico é menos value relevant do que a informação contábil pela correção monetária integral. No Brasil, a correção monetária era regra até 1995. A partir de 1996, com a inflação atingindo menores patamares, o Governo Brasileiro proibiu práticas de atualização monetária para fins tributários e societários. Apesar disso, algumas empresas evidenciaram informações adicionais em moeda constante para o período 1996-2007. Evidências empíricas mostram que estas informações não são mais value relevant em comparação às informações sem correção monetária publicadas por estas mesmas empresas. Uma explicação possível para este resultado é a confiabilidade subjacente dos indicadores de inflação utilizados por estas companhias. No geral, as evidências empíricas mostram que a informação contábil pelo custo histórico não é menos value relevant. No entanto, é importante enfatizar que os resultados se relacionam com as práticas contábeis das empresas analisadas, e não com os modelos contábeis propriamente ditos. / This study contributes to extent value relevance literature relating to the role of book value and earnings through Brazilian accounting data in an asset revaluation and price level accounting context. Moreover, it brings empirical discussion on two very important issues related to accounting information: relevance and reliability. It is employed a value relevance methodology, with the dependent variable being the equity market value and the independent variables being book value of equity and earnings. The first hypothesis is that historical cost accounting is less value relevant than fixed asset revaluation accounting practices. For the period 1996-2007, companies had the option to revalue some long-lived tangible assets. External appraisals in Brazilian revaluation process likely bring a degree of reliability without too much imperfection. However, empirical evidence shows up that firms that experimented asset revaluations are not more value relevant regarding firms that did not. Further analysis based on an incremental value relevance specification shows that if the revaluation process had not occurred, then the value relevance would be quite the same for those firms. In other words, asset revaluation reserve was not value relevant, in spite of likely being reliable. One possible explanation for this result is the underlying firms\' asset revaluation practices lack of relevance. The second hypothesis is that historical cost accounting is less value relevant than price level accounting. In Brazil, price level accounting was the rule until 1995. From 1996, with inflation rates getting lower degrees, Brazilian Government prohibited price level for tax and financial accounting purposes. Even though, some companies disclosed additional information in price level for the period 1996-2007. Empirical evidence shows that this accounting information is not more value relevant in comparison to the information without price level publicized by the same companies. One possible explanation for this result is the underlying reliability of the inflation index used by the firms. Overall empirical evidence shows that historical cost accounting is not less value relevant. Nevertheless, it is important to emphasize that the results are related to the underlying firms\' accounting practices, not the accounting models themselves.

Price Level Targeting with Imperfect Rationality: A Heuristic Approach Vojtěch Molnár Abstract The thesis compares price level targeting and inflation targeting regimes in a New Keynesian model without rational expectations hypothesis. Economic agents instead form their expectations using heuristics-they choose between a few simple rules based on their past forecasting performance. Two main specifications of the price level targeting model are examined-the agents form expectations either about price level or about inflation, which is ex ante not equivalent because of sequential nature of the model. In addition, several formulations of the forecasting rules are considered. According to the results, price level targeting is preferred in the case with expectations created about price level under the baseline calibration; but it is sensitive to some model parameters. Furthermore, when expectations are created about inflation, price level targeting over time loses credibility and leads to divergence of the economy. On the other hand, inflation targeting model functions stably. Therefore, while potential benefits of price level targeting have been confirmed under certain assumptions, the results suggest that inflation targeting constitutes significantly more robust choice for monetary policy.

過去住宅價格的研究多以平均數為主軸，鮮少探討價格分散（price dispersion）的現象。然而，如市場上價格分散程度增加，則平均價格在市場整體價格的描述上將失去其經濟意義。因此，本文試圖了解平均價格與價格分散的關係及價格分散的影響原因。目前，價格分散之文獻多著重於需求者行為對成交價分散的影響，未探討造成表價差異的原因。過去文獻指出，景氣及區位皆會影響建商的推案行為及訂價行為。因此，本文從供給者角度，探討房價水準、景氣及區位對表價分散造成的影響。 本研究使用政治大學房地產研究中心與國泰建設公司所調查台北市與台北縣83Q1至97Q2住宅新推個案表價資料，分成台北市與台北縣市中心、市郊與郊外研究價格分散程度差異。結果顯示，住宅市場房價水準上升時，將增加建商的產品及訂價差異，在市場效率及資訊不足的情況下，使房價水準領先價格分散三季。而不景氣時容易對財務條件較差之廠商造成銷售壓力，使價格分散較景氣時大。區位較佳之地區因產品獨特性、價格僵固無彈性，而使分散程度小於區位較差地區。由市場上價格分散情形，我們可以觀察到市場風險的變化，景氣轉壞時或區位較差地區風險較高。 價格分散是市場上價格混亂的現象，在產品異質性較高故不易觀察的住宅市場中，本文釐清了價格分散來自於房價水準、景氣及區位。因此，當價格分散擴大時，學術上觀察平均價格時應更謹慎的看到個體的差異，而市場上需求者更應多搜尋與比較市場上的住宅產品。 / Price dispersion is a common issue in homogeneous goods literatures, but a few researches in housing market. In financial literatures, variation is an important index which means the risk of market. Especially in market depression, we should pay more attention to price variation. As a result, this paper focus on the price dispersion of housing market, and tries to find the effect of price level, real estate cycle, and location on price dispersion. Previous time-on-the-market studies focused on the relationship between listing price and trading price of housing unit, while this paper investigates the difference in listing price of different residential projects in new construction market. We demonstrate the degree of housing price dispersion which changes with price level, real estate cycle and location, because of the heterogeneity of seller’s strategies. After controlling the effect of product differentiation, we find that there is a positive correlation between price dispersion and risk. Our results suggest that besides the price level, we should pay more attention to the price dispersion of housing market.

Differences in price levels as well as inflation rates among countries have been subject of discussion for a long time. More than the actual levels, however, the question of determinants of price levels in time and a possible convergence is key for the new member states with respect to the Maastricht criteria. The dynamics of price levels is crucial, and many suggestions have been put forward to explain the observed trends and changes. This thesis focuses on the determinants of relative price level, and hence real exchange rate, developments in the new member states of the EU and employs a regression analysis to examine their change in time. As most of the countries in focus are transition economies, structural variables are also included among the independent variables. We find that the Balassa- Samuelson effect is key to explaining real exchange rate developments as the effect of productivity differential has been significant over the whole period examined. However, in the recent years, marked by the onset of the crisis, other factors, such as the structure of trade and Euro area membership, have become more prominent.

Hereby presented Master Thesis deals with an analysis of preparedness of the Russian monetary policy for adoption of inflation-targeting regime. We define the impact of different factors on the level of inflation and consequently their importance in the process of predicting inflation in the period from January 2006 to September 2012 in the Russian Federation. The selection of the factors is based on theory and on the examination of the Russian monetary policy environment, taking into account the credibility, transparency and accountability of the monetary institutions and the financial sector and real economy specifications. The analysis of interconnections among the factors is based on a vector autoregressive regression model VAR(4) as well as on Granger causality test and impulse-response analysis. Our results indicate that the major role in inflation formation among the chosen variables, the exchange rate prevailed in the observed period and the interest rate gained in importance to certain extent. Thus the Russian Central Bank has proceeded to prepare the monetary policy rule for the adoption of inflation-targeting regime. Nevertheless, building more sound monetary and financial institutions, successful implementation of flexible exchange rate and abandoning exchange rate targeting, as...

The aim of the submitted thesis "Nominal and Real Convergence of the Czech Republic to EU (selected issues)" is to analyze nominal and real convergence of the Czech Republic to EU member countries from macroeconomic point of view, by using comparison with other transition economies. It presents and discusses theoretical issues relating to convergent process. The thesis deals with analysis of convergence using these indicators: GDP per capita in purchasing power parities, comparative price level, Maastricht criteria and some other indicators.

Deflation, today understood mainly as a decrease in price level, is in the eyes of the mainstream economists the threat and danger of the economic development. This view is based on the experience from the Economic Crisis between 1929 and 1933 and later development in Japan. Therefore, the price stability is nowadays comprehended as a non decline in price index; monetary policy actually states the sustainable increase as a goal. The Austrian School of Economics uses the original definition of the words inflation and deflation and defines them as the increase and decrease of money supply. Modern interpretation of these terms means for them a dangerous misunderstanding whose result is misapprehension of causal connections between individual phenomena. This leads not only to incorrect conclusions but, above all, to disruption of the economic system, price and production structure, and development of economic cycles caused by artificial increase in money supply, which brings profit to certain groups.

台灣的國內生產毛額及薪資在過去十幾年來相當的穩定,但是生活水準卻仍然一直提升。這種矛盾現象來自於新台幣的名目跟實質匯率背離,在先進國家裡面是相當罕見的。本論文研究了台灣與國際經濟的整合、貨幣政策、政治局勢以及收支平衡帳等因素,並了解他們跟此矛盾之間的潛在因果關係。由於台灣未能充分參與最近一波的全球化浪潮,使得它的價格體系跟國際水準脫勾。而對外投資、外匯累積,以及傳統商業跟文化結構等因素,共同創造了現有獨特的低物價水準環境。為了防止這種長期的價格扭曲影響,台灣的國際政治情勢必須改善,或至少跟經濟行為能力分離。唯有如此,台灣的經濟情況才能恢復正常,讓實質跟名目匯率的差距縮小,(以美金計價的)名目國內生產總值和工資也才能成長。 / Taiwan’s GDP and wages have remained steady for more than a decade, though the living standard continued to rise. This paradox is induced by the New Taiwan Dollar’s nominal and real exchange rates diverging, an anomaly amongst advanced economies. Investigating ongoing international economic integration, Taiwan’s monetary policy, political situation, and balance of payments unveils the underlying causality. Taiwan could not participate in the most recent wave of globalisation, insulating its price level. In combination with outgoing investments, reserves accumulation, and its traditional business culture and structure, this has created an area of inimitable low prices. In order to prevent distortionary long-term effects, Taiwan’s political situation needs to either be resolved, or separated from its economic capacity to act. Only then can Taiwan’s economic situation normalise and the real/nominal exchange rate spread fade, which implies an increase in nominal GDP and wages (measured in USD).

Author: Pavel Ryska Doctoral thesis: The Empirics of Deflation and Economic Growth Abstract This doctoral thesis deals with the relationship between deflation and economic growth. Existing empirical research has focused on the simple link between price growth and GDP growth or introduced narrower price measures as control variables. The goal of the present work is to account for shifts in both demand and supply, so that the effect of price inflation on growth as such could be separated from effects of changes in certain elements of nominal demand and supply. The work takes two general approaches. First, I use a large macroeconomic panel data set of 20 countries over approximately 140 years to explore long-run and short-run effects of inflation on output growth, after controlling for money supply growth as a demand shifter and oil price growth as a proxy for shifts in supply. In doing so, I use a range of methods such as the vector error-correction model, autoregressive distributed lag model and the fixed effects panel model. Second, I propose a new approach that uses disaggregated sector data from national accounts on output, prices and other variables to explore the link between quantity produced and sector inflation rates. The advantage of the data set is that it is rich in modern-day observations of...

The aim of the thesis is to analyze the process of nominal and real convergence of the Czech Republic to the average of the European Union (EU-27). The text uses comparison with other european transition economies (Slovakia, Hungary, Poland and Slovenia). The thesis consists of an analysis of the progress of real GDP per capita, comparative price level, labor productivity, employment, labor costs and other indicators. Other topics such as alternative indicators of economical convergence or the accession of the Czech republic into the euro-zone are discussed.