In this thesis we examine exchange rates and monetary policy of four emerging Asian countries, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and South Korea. We model equilibrium exchange rates using a general behavioural specification consistent with a variety of theoretical approaches; and short-run dynamics using a general non-linear adjustment model. We find in all countries examined, equilibrium nominal and real exchange rates are a function of permanent relative output and one or more variables from domestic and foreign price levels, nominal and real interest rate differentials, the level of and changes in net foreign assets, and a time trend. These results imply that individual countries present significant elements of idiosyncratic behaviour, casting doubt on empirical models using panel-data techniques. We also obtain evidence of non-linear exchange rate dynamics, with the speed of adjustment to equilibrium being in all cases a function of the size, and in two cases, the sign of the misalignment term. With respect to monetary policy, we examined these countries' monetary policy reaction function based on an open economy augmented Taylor rule including the exchange rate and the foreign interest rate. Using a formal testing approach, our tests reject linearity, suggesting that monetary authorities in these four emerging economies are subject to nonlinear inflation effects and that they respond more vigorously to inflation when it is further from the target. Our results also lead us to speculate that policymakers in three countries may have been attempting to keep inflation within the range, while those in the other country may have been pursuing a point inflation target. Finally, we also find monetary policy is asymmetric as policy makers respond differently to upward and downward deviations of inflation away from the target.

This paper investigates the factors driving the real exchange rate in the Ghanaian economy. The paper aimed at finding the principal factor(s) that influence the real exchange rate and explains the channels by which these factors exert their influence using standard empirical methods of vector autoregressive (VAR) models. The paper established that inflation rate differentials and interest rate differentials influence the exchange rate through the expectations medium. Domestic and foreign money supplies which are exogenous macroeconomic variables were also found to be important in the Ghanaian money market as far as the exchange rate matters. The paper also highlighted how the great recession in the United States may have affected the cedi/dollar rate of exchange after this economic event swept through the United States generating spillover effects on economies around the world.

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This thesis consists of three essays on the discretionary interactions of fiscal and monetary policy authorities when they stabilise a single economy against shocks in the dynamic setting. In the first essay, I investigate the stabilization bias that arises in a model of noncooperative monetary and fiscal policy stabilisation of the economy, when the monetary authority implements price level targeting but fiscal authority remains benevolent. I demonstrate that the gain in welfare depends on the level of steady state debt. If the steady state level of the government debt is relatively low, then the monetary price level targeting unambiguously leads to social welfare gains, even if the fiscal authority acts strategically and faces different objectives and has incentives to pursue its own benefit and therefore may offset some or all of monetary policy actions. Moreover, if the fiscal policymaker is able to conduct itself as an intra-period leader then the social welfare gain of the monetary price level targeting regime can be further improved. However, if the economy has a relatively high steady state debt level, the gain of the price level targeting is outweighed by the loss arising from the conflicts between the policy makers, and such policy leads to a lower social welfare than under the cooperative discretionary inflation targeting. In the second essay I study the macroeconomic effect of the interaction between discretionary monetary policy which re-optimises every period and discretionary fiscal policy which reoptimises less frequently. I demonstrate the existence of two discretionary equilibria if the frequency of fiscal policy re-optimizes annually while monetary policy adjusts quarterly. Following a disturbance to the debt level, the economy can be stabilised either in a ‘fast but volatile‘ or ‘slow but smooth’ way, where both dynamic paths satisfy the conditions of optimality and time-consistency. I study several delegation regimes and demonstrate that the policy of partial targeting the debt level results in far worse welfare outcomes relative to a strict inflation targeting policy. In the third essay, I extend the framework developed in the second essay to the case with Blanchard-Yaari type of consumers. This brings in two effects. First, an increase in debt results in higher consumption via the wealth effect, the marginal cost is higher so the need for higher interest rate and higher taxation will increase, therefore the dynamic complementarity between actions of the two policymakers become stronger. Second, higher inflation affects consumption via the average propensity to consume and this effect is likely to weaken the dynamic complementarity. I show that when the households are assigned a mortality rate, overall the first effect dominates the second. The transition paths of the economic variables back to the steady state will be more volatile and the multiple equilibriums are more likely to arise.

Dentre as decisões adotadas pelos gestores quanto à política acionária em suas empresas, está a realização splits. Como a sua realização não altera a posição relativa dos investidores e não interfere nas políticas de investimento, de financiamento e de distribuição de resultados, espera-se, a luz da teoria financeira, que os splits sejam apenas eventos cosméticos. Entretanto, grande parte das pesquisas empíricas desenvolvidas ao longo dos últimos anos demonstra que o mercado reage positivamente ao splits. As possíveis explicações para este comportamento são ainda inconclusivas. Dentre as diversas hipóteses levantadas pela literatura três se destacam: sinalização, liquidez e nível ótimo de preços. Este trabalho tem como objetivo principal o desenvolvimento de um modelo capaz de considerar, simultaneamente, o papel destas hipóteses na explicação da reação dos investidores aos splits. Para avaliar a influência de cada uma das hipóteses e das suas inter-relações utiliza-se um modelo híbrido de equações estruturais. No modelo de mensuração, foram definidos quatro construtos: negociação, spread, tamanho e preço. O modelo estrutural define as relações existentes a partir da proposição de 22 hipóteses. Para a avaliação do modelo utilizou-se uma amostra de 321 splits realizados no mercado brasileiro entre 1990 e 2004. Os resultados da análise fatorial confirmatória apontaram para a validade e coerência dos quatro construtos, validando o modelo de mensuração. Após a eliminação das hipóteses não significativas e da inserção de algumas correlações entre os erros das variáveis, o modelo estrutural confirmou 12 das hipóteses levantadas originalmente e apresentou índices de ajuste adequados. De maneira geral, os resultados apontam para a pequena influência da assimetria informacional, dentre eles, o fato do tipo de split (bonificações ou desdobramentos) e do split fator não influenciarem a reação e a não significância das hipóteses que envolvem a maioria das variáveis relacionadas à assimetria. Quanto à decisão de realizar os splits, observou-se que o gestor leva em consideração principalmente a volatilidade e o preço para a escolha do split fator. / Among the decisions that managers make concerning stock policies in their companies, one can find the splits. As splits do not effect changes in the relative position of investors nor influences the policies for investment, financing and distribution of results, it is expected that, according to financial theory, splits play a cosmetic role and nothing else. Nonetheless, a great deal of current empirical research shows that the market reacts positively to splits. Possible explanations for such a behavior are yet inconclusive. Among the several hypotheses that were raised so far in the literature, three can be given special attention: signaling, liquidity, and optimal price level. The preset work develops a model able to take simultaneously the role of these hypotheses to explain the reaction of investors to the splits. In order to assess the influence of each hypothesis and interrelationships, a hybrid model of structural equations is deployed. Four constructs were defined in the measurement model: trading activity, spread, size, and price. The structural model defines extant relations from the proposition of 22 hypotheses. A sample of 321 splits performed in the Brazilian market between 1990 and 2004 was used for assessing the model. Confirmatory factor analysis revealed the validity and coherence of the four constructs, thus enabling one to claimabout the validity of the measurement model. After eliminating non-significant hypotheses and adding some correlations for the errors in variables, the structural model confirmed 12 original hypotheses and exhibited adequate fit indexes. Broadly, findings suggest that there is little influence from the informational asymmetry, among which the facts that the type of split (stock dividends or stock splits) and the split factor do not influence the reaction and the non-significance of the hypotheses that comprise most variables related to asymmetry. In what comes to deciding to do splits, it was clear that the manager mainly takes into account the volatility and the price for choosing the split factor.

Dentre as decisões adotadas pelos gestores quanto à política acionária em suas empresas, está a realização splits. Como a sua realização não altera a posição relativa dos investidores e não interfere nas políticas de investimento, de financiamento e de distribuição de resultados, espera-se, a luz da teoria financeira, que os splits sejam apenas eventos cosméticos. Entretanto, grande parte das pesquisas empíricas desenvolvidas ao longo dos últimos anos demonstra que o mercado reage positivamente ao splits. As possíveis explicações para este comportamento são ainda inconclusivas. Dentre as diversas hipóteses levantadas pela literatura três se destacam: sinalização, liquidez e nível ótimo de preços. Este trabalho tem como objetivo principal o desenvolvimento de um modelo capaz de considerar, simultaneamente, o papel destas hipóteses na explicação da reação dos investidores aos splits. Para avaliar a influência de cada uma das hipóteses e das suas inter-relações utiliza-se um modelo híbrido de equações estruturais. No modelo de mensuração, foram definidos quatro construtos: negociação, spread, tamanho e preço. O modelo estrutural define as relações existentes a partir da proposição de 22 hipóteses. Para a avaliação do modelo utilizou-se uma amostra de 321 splits realizados no mercado brasileiro entre 1990 e 2004. Os resultados da análise fatorial confirmatória apontaram para a validade e coerência dos quatro construtos, validando o modelo de mensuração. Após a eliminação das hipóteses não significativas e da inserção de algumas correlações entre os erros das variáveis, o modelo estrutural confirmou 12 das hipóteses levantadas originalmente e apresentou índices de ajuste adequados. De maneira geral, os resultados apontam para a pequena influência da assimetria informacional, dentre eles, o fato do tipo de split (bonificações ou desdobramentos) e do split fator não influenciarem a reação e a não significância das hipóteses que envolvem a maioria das variáveis relacionadas à assimetria. Quanto à decisão de realizar os splits, observou-se que o gestor leva em consideração principalmente a volatilidade e o preço para a escolha do split fator. / Among the decisions that managers make concerning stock policies in their companies, one can find the splits. As splits do not effect changes in the relative position of investors nor influences the policies for investment, financing and distribution of results, it is expected that, according to financial theory, splits play a cosmetic role and nothing else. Nonetheless, a great deal of current empirical research shows that the market reacts positively to splits. Possible explanations for such a behavior are yet inconclusive. Among the several hypotheses that were raised so far in the literature, three can be given special attention: signaling, liquidity, and optimal price level. The preset work develops a model able to take simultaneously the role of these hypotheses to explain the reaction of investors to the splits. In order to assess the influence of each hypothesis and interrelationships, a hybrid model of structural equations is deployed. Four constructs were defined in the measurement model: trading activity, spread, size, and price. The structural model defines extant relations from the proposition of 22 hypotheses. A sample of 321 splits performed in the Brazilian market between 1990 and 2004 was used for assessing the model. Confirmatory factor analysis revealed the validity and coherence of the four constructs, thus enabling one to claimabout the validity of the measurement model. After eliminating non-significant hypotheses and adding some correlations for the errors in variables, the structural model confirmed 12 original hypotheses and exhibited adequate fit indexes. Broadly, findings suggest that there is little influence from the informational asymmetry, among which the facts that the type of split (stock dividends or stock splits) and the split factor do not influence the reaction and the non-significance of the hypotheses that comprise most variables related to asymmetry. In what comes to deciding to do splits, it was clear that the manager mainly takes into account the volatility and the price for choosing the split factor.

Dentre as decisões adotadas pelos gestores quanto à política acionária em suas empresas, está a realização splits. Como a sua realização não altera a posição relativa dos investidores e não interfere nas políticas de investimento, de financiamento e de distribuição de resultados, espera-se, a luz da teoria financeira, que os splits sejam apenas eventos cosméticos. Entretanto, grande parte das pesquisas empíricas desenvolvidas ao longo dos últimos anos demonstra que o mercado reage positivamente ao splits. As possíveis explicações para este comportamento são ainda inconclusivas. Dentre as diversas hipóteses levantadas pela literatura três se destacam: sinalização, liquidez e nível ótimo de preços. Este trabalho tem como objetivo principal o desenvolvimento de um modelo capaz de considerar, simultaneamente, o papel destas hipóteses na explicação da reação dos investidores aos splits. Para avaliar a influência de cada uma das hipóteses e das suas inter-relações utiliza-se um modelo híbrido de equações estruturais. No modelo de mensuração, foram definidos quatro construtos: negociação, spread, tamanho e preço. O modelo estrutural define as relações existentes a partir da proposição de 22 hipóteses. Para a avaliação do modelo utilizou-se uma amostra de 321 splits realizados no mercado brasileiro entre 1990 e 2004. Os resultados da análise fatorial confirmatória apontaram para a validade e coerência dos quatro construtos, validando o modelo de mensuração. Após a eliminação das hipóteses não significativas e da inserção de algumas correlações entre os erros das variáveis, o modelo estrutural confirmou 12 das hipóteses levantadas originalmente e apresentou índices de ajuste adequados. De maneira geral, os resultados apontam para a pequena influência da assimetria informacional, dentre eles, o fato do tipo de split (bonificações ou desdobramentos) e do split fator não influenciarem a reação e a não significância das hipóteses que envolvem a maioria das variáveis relacionadas à assimetria. Quanto à decisão de realizar os splits, observou-se que o gestor leva em consideração principalmente a volatilidade e o preço para a escolha do split fator. / Among the decisions that managers make concerning stock policies in their companies, one can find the splits. As splits do not effect changes in the relative position of investors nor influences the policies for investment, financing and distribution of results, it is expected that, according to financial theory, splits play a cosmetic role and nothing else. Nonetheless, a great deal of current empirical research shows that the market reacts positively to splits. Possible explanations for such a behavior are yet inconclusive. Among the several hypotheses that were raised so far in the literature, three can be given special attention: signaling, liquidity, and optimal price level. The preset work develops a model able to take simultaneously the role of these hypotheses to explain the reaction of investors to the splits. In order to assess the influence of each hypothesis and interrelationships, a hybrid model of structural equations is deployed. Four constructs were defined in the measurement model: trading activity, spread, size, and price. The structural model defines extant relations from the proposition of 22 hypotheses. A sample of 321 splits performed in the Brazilian market between 1990 and 2004 was used for assessing the model. Confirmatory factor analysis revealed the validity and coherence of the four constructs, thus enabling one to claimabout the validity of the measurement model. After eliminating non-significant hypotheses and adding some correlations for the errors in variables, the structural model confirmed 12 original hypotheses and exhibited adequate fit indexes. Broadly, findings suggest that there is little influence from the informational asymmetry, among which the facts that the type of split (stock dividends or stock splits) and the split factor do not influence the reaction and the non-significance of the hypotheses that comprise most variables related to asymmetry. In what comes to deciding to do splits, it was clear that the manager mainly takes into account the volatility and the price for choosing the split factor.

[pt] A hipótese usual de que a política fiscal é definida em termos reais não é nem realista, nem inócua. Neste artigo, propomos um modelo que leva em consideração a existência de receitas e despesas nominais. Essa característica cria um canal inexplorado pelo qual as políticas monetária e fiscal interagem. Nós mostramos que, neste ambiente, o nível de preços pode ser fiscalmente determinado, mesmo quando toda a dívida do governo é real. Além disso, os efeitos das políticas monetária e fiscal são sensíveis ao grau de indexação no orçamento do governo. Usando técnicas de estimação Bayesiana, nós estimamos o modelo para a economia norte-americana e encontramos que a corrosão do valor real das despesas desempenha um papel importante no financiamento dos déficits do governo, sob o regime de dominância fiscal. / [en] The usual assumption that fiscal policy is set in real terms is neither realistic nor innocuous. In this article, we propose a model that accounts for the existence of nominal revenues and expenditures. This creates an unexplored channel through which monetary and fiscal policies interact. We show that, in this environment, the price level can be fiscally determinate, even when all government debt is real. Also, the effects of monetary and fiscal policies are sensitive to the degree of indexation in the government budget. Using Bayesian techniques, we estimate the model for the US economy and find that the revaluation of these nominal components plays an important role as a source of fiscal financing, under a fiscally dominant regime.

Este estudo contribui para a literatura existente de value relevance relacionada ao papel do patrimônio líquido contábil e do resultado contábil por intermédio de dados brasileiros em um contexto de reavaliação de ativos e contabilidade em moeda constante. Além disso, são efetuadas discussões a partir de resultados empíricos sobre dois importantes assuntos relacionados à informação contábil: relevância e confiabilidade. É aplicada uma metodologia de value relevance, sendo que a variável dependente é o valor de mercado da empresa e as variáveis independentes são o patrimônio líquido e o resultado. A primeira hipótese é a de que a informação contábil pelo custo histórico é menos value relevant do que a informação contábil com práticas de reavaliação de ativos imobilizados. Para o período 1996-2007, as companhias tinham a opção de reavaliar alguns ativos tangíveis de longo prazo. A participação de avaliadores externos nos processos de reavaliações no Brasil provavelmente proporciona um grau de confiabilidade sem muita imperfeição. No entanto, evidências empíricas mostram que as informações contábeis de empresas que efetuaram reavaliações de ativos não são mais value relevant em relação às empresas que não efetuaram. Análises adicionais baseadas em uma especificação de value relevance incremental mostraram que, se os processos de reavaliação não tivessem ocorrido, então a value relevance seria praticamente a mesma para estas empresas. Em outras palavras, a reserva de reavaliação não foi value relevant, apesar de provavelmente ser confiável. Uma explicação possível para esse resultado é uma falta de relevância para as práticas de reavaliação de ativos observadas. A segunda hipótese é a de que a informação contábil pelo custo histórico é menos value relevant do que a informação contábil pela correção monetária integral. No Brasil, a correção monetária era regra até 1995. A partir de 1996, com a inflação atingindo menores patamares, o Governo Brasileiro proibiu práticas de atualização monetária para fins tributários e societários. Apesar disso, algumas empresas evidenciaram informações adicionais em moeda constante para o período 1996-2007. Evidências empíricas mostram que estas informações não são mais value relevant em comparação às informações sem correção monetária publicadas por estas mesmas empresas. Uma explicação possível para este resultado é a confiabilidade subjacente dos indicadores de inflação utilizados por estas companhias. No geral, as evidências empíricas mostram que a informação contábil pelo custo histórico não é menos value relevant. No entanto, é importante enfatizar que os resultados se relacionam com as práticas contábeis das empresas analisadas, e não com os modelos contábeis propriamente ditos. / This study contributes to extent value relevance literature relating to the role of book value and earnings through Brazilian accounting data in an asset revaluation and price level accounting context. Moreover, it brings empirical discussion on two very important issues related to accounting information: relevance and reliability. It is employed a value relevance methodology, with the dependent variable being the equity market value and the independent variables being book value of equity and earnings. The first hypothesis is that historical cost accounting is less value relevant than fixed asset revaluation accounting practices. For the period 1996-2007, companies had the option to revalue some long-lived tangible assets. External appraisals in Brazilian revaluation process likely bring a degree of reliability without too much imperfection. However, empirical evidence shows up that firms that experimented asset revaluations are not more value relevant regarding firms that did not. Further analysis based on an incremental value relevance specification shows that if the revaluation process had not occurred, then the value relevance would be quite the same for those firms. In other words, asset revaluation reserve was not value relevant, in spite of likely being reliable. One possible explanation for this result is the underlying firms\' asset revaluation practices lack of relevance. The second hypothesis is that historical cost accounting is less value relevant than price level accounting. In Brazil, price level accounting was the rule until 1995. From 1996, with inflation rates getting lower degrees, Brazilian Government prohibited price level for tax and financial accounting purposes. Even though, some companies disclosed additional information in price level for the period 1996-2007. Empirical evidence shows that this accounting information is not more value relevant in comparison to the information without price level publicized by the same companies. One possible explanation for this result is the underlying reliability of the inflation index used by the firms. Overall empirical evidence shows that historical cost accounting is not less value relevant. Nevertheless, it is important to emphasize that the results are related to the underlying firms\' accounting practices, not the accounting models themselves.

Online group-buying is one of popular and innovative business models in the Internet age. Its essence is that the price will go down as the accumulated orders are increasing. A challenge is how to design the price curve, i.e., the relation between price and volume. Researchers have observed the consumer behavior phenomena of demand externalities, price-drop effect, and cycle ending effect in online group-buying transactions. All are related to the design of price curve. Therefore, if the price curve design can attract consumers and make profit as well, it will make the group-buying more successful. Based on above background, the purpose of this study is to explore the impact of price reduction frequency on consumers¡¦ perceived value and perceived transaction utility and then in turn on consumers¡¦ intention. In addition, this study also explores how the consumers¡¦ price sensitivity mediate the impact of price reduction frequency on consumers¡¦ perceived value and perceived transaction utility. A field experiment was done first. Then, an online experiment was designed and implemented based on the observation of the field experiment. The research result indicates that price reduction frequency will positively affect the consumers¡¦ perceived value and perceived transaction utility. Further, both consumers¡¦ perceived value and perceived transaction utility will affect the consumers¡¦ intention. In addition, the consumers¡¦ price sensitivity modulates the impact of price reduction frequency on consumers¡¦ perceived value and perceived transaction utility. Finally, the observations of field experiment and lab experiment demonstrate the phenomena of demand externalities, price-drop effect, and cycle ending effect proposed by previous researches.